Issues
In our final issue of 2025, we close out what has been another extremely profitable year for the market and the Stock of the Week portfolio by adding one more risk-on stock that will hopefully take flight in the new year. It’s a mid-cap nuclear energy play that was recently recommended by Tyler Laundon to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience. We will be back with our next issue in two weeks, on January 5, 2026. In the meantime, enjoy today’s issue – and Happy Holidays!
Please note, here is the schedule for the holiday-shortened week:
You will receive the Daily Option Order Flow email Monday through Thursday mornings, and then again starting the following Tuesday.
Have a great holiday!
Despite a mid-week wobble in tech (especially AI stocks), the bulls stepped up Thursday and Friday, and by week’s end the indexes finished mostly mixed. The S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Dow lost 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.5% and the Russell fell 0.9%.
- The stock market will be open Monday through Wednesday until 1 eastern.
- Closed Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.
- Open on Friday.
You will receive the Daily Option Order Flow email Monday through Thursday mornings, and then again starting the following Tuesday.
Have a great holiday!
Despite a mid-week wobble in tech (especially AI stocks), the bulls stepped up Thursday and Friday, and by week’s end the indexes finished mostly mixed. The S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Dow lost 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.5% and the Russell fell 0.9%.
Please note, here is the schedule for the holiday-shortened week:
You will receive the Daily Option Order Flow email Monday through Thursday mornings, and then again starting the following Tuesday.
Have a great holiday!
Despite a mid-week wobble in tech (especially AI stocks), the bulls stepped up Thursday and Friday, and by week’s end the indexes finished mostly mixed. The S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Dow lost 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.5% and the Russell fell 0.9%.
- The stock market will be open Monday through Wednesday until 1 eastern.
- Closed Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.
- Open on Friday.
You will receive the Daily Option Order Flow email Monday through Thursday mornings, and then again starting the following Tuesday.
Have a great holiday!
Despite a mid-week wobble in tech (especially AI stocks), the bulls stepped up Thursday and Friday, and by week’s end the indexes finished mostly mixed. The S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Dow lost 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.5% and the Russell fell 0.9%.
Amid all the noise, you may have missed that Microsoft (MSFT) is investing $5.4 billion over the next two years to expand its existing data center capacity in Canada. The investment is primarily aimed at strengthening Canada’s AI and cloud infrastructure in Toronto and Quebec City.
Microsoft has pledged to keep Canadian data on Canadian soil and is launching a new “Threat Intelligence Hub” in Ottawa. This hub will allow experts to work closely with the Canadian government on cybersecurity threat monitoring.
This is a big win for Canada and is likely tied to one of the country’s secret weapons: cheap, dependable hydro power. This is where we go for this week’s new recommendation.
Microsoft has pledged to keep Canadian data on Canadian soil and is launching a new “Threat Intelligence Hub” in Ottawa. This hub will allow experts to work closely with the Canadian government on cybersecurity threat monitoring.
This is a big win for Canada and is likely tied to one of the country’s secret weapons: cheap, dependable hydro power. This is where we go for this week’s new recommendation.
While momentum in many of 2025’s leading growth and AI names has waned, there are many “new” groups of stocks acting very well. This month’s issue focuses on these companies, which might offer somewhat less top-line growth but still significant upside share price potential.
This month’s issue tilts toward industrial-type names, like companies that make filters and specialized bearings for mission-critical equipment, power converters for data centers and medical imaging devices, and protection equipment for nuclear facilities. We also have a cruise line operator that’s crushing it.
Enjoy!
This month’s issue tilts toward industrial-type names, like companies that make filters and specialized bearings for mission-critical equipment, power converters for data centers and medical imaging devices, and protection equipment for nuclear facilities. We also have a cruise line operator that’s crushing it.
Enjoy!
Despite a late-week sell-off, stocks finished last week with a mixed but telling tape. Federal Reserve policymakers delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis-point rate cut mid-week — reinforcing easier policy expectations — while fresh highs in cyclicals and small caps early in the week signaled strong breadth, only to be met by renewed AI valuation angst into Friday. Rotation out of mega-cap tech and into value names helped buoy the Dow and Russell 2000, which gained 1% and 0.5%, respectively, even as the tech-heavier S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.6% and 1.6%.
The overall evidence is more good than bad, but it really depends where you look—AI stocks specifically (and growth stocks in general) have been lagging, while many cyclical and value-type areas have been doing well, with more stocks breaking out on the upside and with many holding firm during some sloppiness the past two days. At this point, we’re just going with what’s in front of us: Extending our line in fresher titles that are showing strength, but raising stops on laggards and being selective given the crosscurrents that are out there.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with a decent amount of non-AI growth, along with some cyclicals and a turnaround or two. Our Top Pick is a name we missed a month ago but whose recent pullback is starting to set up a nice risk/reward situation.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with a decent amount of non-AI growth, along with some cyclicals and a turnaround or two. Our Top Pick is a name we missed a month ago but whose recent pullback is starting to set up a nice risk/reward situation.
The market didn’t get the bump from another Fed rate cut that some may have anticipated, though it’s possible the run-up was already baked in after the cut was deemed all but a foregone conclusion starting late last month. Still, stocks are hovering near record highs, and broader measures like small caps and the equal-weight index are catching up to the major indexes. Improving breadth means it’s a good time to add a dividend-paying energy stock, courtesy of Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson. It’s a stock that’s picked up a full head of steam since bottoming in mid-August.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Despite a late-week sell-off, stocks finished the week with a mixed but telling tape. Federal Reserve policymakers delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis-point rate cut mid-week — reinforcing easier policy expectations — while fresh highs in cyclicals and small caps early in the week signaled strong breadth, only to be met by renewed AI valuation angst into Friday. Rotation out of mega-cap tech and into value names helped buoy the Dow and Russell 2000 which gained 1% and 0.5%, respectively, even as the tech-heavier S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.6% and 1.6%.
Despite a late-week sell-off, stocks finished the week with a mixed but telling tape. Federal Reserve policymakers delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis-point rate cut mid-week — reinforcing easier policy expectations — while fresh highs in cyclicals and small caps early in the week signaled strong breadth, only to be met by renewed AI valuation angst into Friday. Rotation out of mega-cap tech and into value names helped buoy the Dow and Russell 2000 which gained 1% and 0.5%, respectively, even as the tech-heavier S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.6% and 1.6%.
The market’s evidence continues to improve, with our core market timing indicators returning to the bullish side of the fence. That’s obviously a good thing and has us optimistic -- though upside follow through from here will be key, as many growth measures are still lagging behind, though we are seeing more setups, especially from areas that sat around for much of the past year (see the issue for much more on that). All told, we are doign some new buying tonight, and will have more to come if the market continues to act well.
Thank goodness; the shutdown is over!
And that agreement (although not really agreeing on much!) has helped the markets to continue their upward momentum, albeit with a few hiccups. All eyes are on the Fed, as I write this, with expectations that it will once again lower rates by a quarter of a point.
And that agreement (although not really agreeing on much!) has helped the markets to continue their upward momentum, albeit with a few hiccups. All eyes are on the Fed, as I write this, with expectations that it will once again lower rates by a quarter of a point.
Updates
The introduction of fear to the financial market can be either a good thing or a bad thing—but seldom is it neither.
In the first case, increasing fear among investors in an environment characterized by fairly limited public participation (i.e. an uncrowded market), relatively unstretched valuations and plenty of liquidity often results in the “wall of worry” phenomenon in which stocks actually benefit from the rising fear levels.
In the first case, increasing fear among investors in an environment characterized by fairly limited public participation (i.e. an uncrowded market), relatively unstretched valuations and plenty of liquidity often results in the “wall of worry” phenomenon in which stocks actually benefit from the rising fear levels.
Both the S&P 600 SmallCap Index and the Russell 2000 are trading higher than they were a week ago, making the ugly selloff last Friday look like a one-off event.
That said, it’s totally valid to be at least a little concerned about the trade war heating up again. And while it sounds like progress could soon be made in the government shutdown (Senate Majority Leader Thune is rumored to be talking with Democrats about extending ACA subsidies in exchange for reopening the government), there’s little doubt that the longer the shutdown goes on the greater the risks are to the market.
That said, it’s totally valid to be at least a little concerned about the trade war heating up again. And while it sounds like progress could soon be made in the government shutdown (Senate Majority Leader Thune is rumored to be talking with Democrats about extending ACA subsidies in exchange for reopening the government), there’s little doubt that the longer the shutdown goes on the greater the risks are to the market.
Explorer stocks were mixed this week as Asian stocks struggled amidst increased U.S.-China economic tensions and concern over Chinese economic growth.
Commodities are back but something to keep in mind was mentioned to me by a friend in the energy business: “America is running out of shale oil.” This has big implications for world oil markets and America’s energy mix since if we are running out of the shale oil that can be extracted at about $60/barrel, higher oil and energy prices are around the corner.
Commodities are back but something to keep in mind was mentioned to me by a friend in the energy business: “America is running out of shale oil.” This has big implications for world oil markets and America’s energy mix since if we are running out of the shale oil that can be extracted at about $60/barrel, higher oil and energy prices are around the corner.
Volatility is back, with the VIX spiking above 20 for the first time since early August and above 21 for the first time since June.
Tariffs are the reason. Specifically, escalating tariff rhetoric between the U.S. and China, which spooked the market into its worst one-day selloff since April last Friday, and has prompted wild intraday swings every trading session since. So far, the damage to the major indexes has been fairly limited (the S&P 500 is less than 2% off its highs, as of this writing), but under the surface, a few yellow flags have emerged, including the number of 52-week lows among NYSE-listed stocks topping the magic number of 40 (it’s up to 63) that typically precludes a more pronounced market pullback. We’ll see how much the just-underway third-quarter earnings season can act as a yin to tariffs’ yang and hopefully provide a relatively high floor for stocks in the coming weeks. As I wrote in this space last week, that may depend on whether companies can cross the relatively high bar of 8% earnings estimates.
Tariffs are the reason. Specifically, escalating tariff rhetoric between the U.S. and China, which spooked the market into its worst one-day selloff since April last Friday, and has prompted wild intraday swings every trading session since. So far, the damage to the major indexes has been fairly limited (the S&P 500 is less than 2% off its highs, as of this writing), but under the surface, a few yellow flags have emerged, including the number of 52-week lows among NYSE-listed stocks topping the magic number of 40 (it’s up to 63) that typically precludes a more pronounced market pullback. We’ll see how much the just-underway third-quarter earnings season can act as a yin to tariffs’ yang and hopefully provide a relatively high floor for stocks in the coming weeks. As I wrote in this space last week, that may depend on whether companies can cross the relatively high bar of 8% earnings estimates.
China could be a problem.
After spending most of the summer and September making a series of new highs, stocks suddenly tumbled on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% and the Nasdaq fell 3.56% in one day. It was tariff news that caused the carnage.
After spending most of the summer and September making a series of new highs, stocks suddenly tumbled on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% and the Nasdaq fell 3.56% in one day. It was tariff news that caused the carnage.
The market took a big hit for the first time in quite a while last week. But it is recovering nicely so far this week.
After spending most of the summer and September making a series of new highs, stocks suddenly reverted to last April’s form on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% and the Nasdaq fell 3.56% in one day. It was tariff news that caused the carnage.
After spending most of the summer and September making a series of new highs, stocks suddenly reverted to last April’s form on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% and the Nasdaq fell 3.56% in one day. It was tariff news that caused the carnage.
In a raging bull market that has benefited virtually every one of the S&P’s 11 sectors, the conspicuous laggard among them has been the consumer staples.
The staples sector is down 2.4% year-to-date, compared to positive net returns on the other 10 sectors. Leadership in recent quarters, which is illustrated in the following chart, includes: info tech (up 13%), communications services (up 12%), consumer discretionary (up 10%) and utilities (up 8%).
The staples sector is down 2.4% year-to-date, compared to positive net returns on the other 10 sectors. Leadership in recent quarters, which is illustrated in the following chart, includes: info tech (up 13%), communications services (up 12%), consumer discretionary (up 10%) and utilities (up 8%).
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s trends remain in good shape, though the broad market is still a bit iffy and growth stocks are up and down—though, encouragingly, we have seen some solid snapback action this week, with a few names we own and are watching re-testing resistance. All told, the plan remains the same: Give our names some rope and look to add exposure in names as they get going, all while being selective. Tonight, we’re placing AppLovin (APP) on Hold due to its news-driven air pocket, but we’re adding another 3% stake in Arista (ANET), which is perking up. Our cash position will be around 29%.
Third-quarter earnings season gets underway next week, and expectations are high. Economists are expecting 8% earnings growth among S&P 500 companies, according to data compiled by FactSet. It would be the eighth consecutive quarter of at least 8% profit growth among U.S. companies – perhaps the biggest reason stocks have been on a tear the last two years.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are all up modestly compared to a week ago, while the S&P 600 is roughly flat.
Between the two small-cap indices, the Russell 2000 has been the stronger performer lately. It has a higher proportion of more speculative, lower quality stocks (i.e., those with lower or negative earnings), which have attracted more attention than the comparatively higher-quality (i.e., those with higher or positive earnings) stocks in the S&P 600 index.
Between the two small-cap indices, the Russell 2000 has been the stronger performer lately. It has a higher proportion of more speculative, lower quality stocks (i.e., those with lower or negative earnings), which have attracted more attention than the comparatively higher-quality (i.e., those with higher or positive earnings) stocks in the S&P 600 index.
While President Donald Trump hangs fire on rescheduling cannabis, we continue to get signs that support what I call the inexorable march towards greater acceptance of cannabis use and legal reform that will help public companies in the space.
We see momentum for cannabis acceptance and reform in: Ongoing federal-level evidence that Trump may actually follow through on his campaign promise to reschedule cannabis; ongoing robust state-level sales growth; opinion polls; and scientific evidence that cannabis has medical benefits.
We see momentum for cannabis acceptance and reform in: Ongoing federal-level evidence that Trump may actually follow through on his campaign promise to reschedule cannabis; ongoing robust state-level sales growth; opinion polls; and scientific evidence that cannabis has medical benefits.
What shutdown? What tariffs? The market couldn’t care less. It just keeps moving higher.
After making a series of new highs throughout the summer, the S&P had a great September. October looks good so far, too. Stocks are being driven higher by technology and the artificial intelligence trade. The technology sector is up 9% over the past month.
After making a series of new highs throughout the summer, the S&P had a great September. October looks good so far, too. Stocks are being driven higher by technology and the artificial intelligence trade. The technology sector is up 9% over the past month.
Alerts
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains in good shape, and we remain overall bullish, though we’re not flooring the accelerator given that earnings season is revving up. Today’s bulletin concerns Uber (UBER), which is cracking some support today on another round of autonomous news from others—we’re going to cut bait. On the buy side, we’re starting a half-sized stake in Oracle (ORCL), which quacks like a liquid leader.
Enovix Warrant (ENVXW) Follow Up. Exercise Enovix Warrants (ENVXW)
We added a half position in Freshworks (FRSH) back in March and another half in May.
Heading into mid-day shares of BYRN are down about 20%, canceling out our paper gain that accumulated over the last five weeks. Here are a few thoughts after digesting commentary on this morning’s conference call.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The management team at Enovix (ENVX) has been busy.
Late last week, the company announced a $60 million share buyback program. Then yesterday, the company released preliminary Q2 results that came in slightly better than management guidance.
Late last week, the company announced a $60 million share buyback program. Then yesterday, the company released preliminary Q2 results that came in slightly better than management guidance.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.