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CABOT EVENTS
Cabot Weekly Review (Video)
In this week’s video, Tyler Laundon discusses the major macro events that moved the market over the last week and talks about what he’s expecting from Fed’s September meeting next week. While it continues to be a choppy market Tyler’s review of the week’s investor conferences turned up more of the same - management teams remain conservative but aren’t expecting a recession. Turning to stocks, Tyler reviews a number of names from different sectors that look good today. But he also notes that September is typically a weak month for the market and that the next major move higher will likely be driven by confirmation that the Fed is done raising rates and beginning to consider cuts in 2024.
Stocks Discussed: ARM, ADBE, U, APP, TJX, UBER, GSHD, FIX, ELF, DUOL
Cabot Street Check (Podcast)
This week on Street Check, Chris and Brad talk rising oil prices and how they’re hitting the economy, the Fed’s favorite inflation trackers, the most heavily shorted stock currently on the market and the Aaron Rodgers injury and investing world parallels. Then, they discuss the recent ARM IPO, what IPO investing looks like for retail investors and what signals they’re sending the broader markets.
Cabot Webinar
Quarterly Cabot Analyst Meeting
The recording of the Cabot Prime Members Meeting with the Analysts from April 26, 2023 is now available for you to listen to at your convenience—click here for access. This private call with our analysts is one of your exclusive Cabot Prime Core member benefits.
RECENT BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY
This table lists stocks bought or sold in the most recent Issues or Updates.
PORTFOLIO UPDATES THIS WEEK
Cabot Growth Investor
Bi-weekly Issue September 21: The market remains in a two-month correction, but as opposed to the sloppy action seen in recent weeks, the sellers are now starting to pounce, damaging even the resilient big-cap indexes. Longer-term, we still believe the next major move is likely to be up, but we can’t ignore what’s in front of us: We’ve been cautious for weeks, and earlier today on a special bulletin, we pared back on two of our current positions, which will leave us with a cash position in the low 50% range.
In tonight’s issue, we give you our latest thoughts on just about everything -- our stocks, the market, the big picture and interest rates, which, after two years, are still one of (if not the) key drivers of the market. There will be a sustained advance that comes out of all this, but we continue to think patience is the name of the game for now.
Bi-weekly Update September 14: WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious. Most stocks, sectors and indexes are still stuck in the throes of a corrective phase, though we do like some things like our resilient Aggression Index and (relatedly) some sturdy action among growth stocks. While we could add another small position if the market firms up a bit, we’re comfortable with the stocks we have in the Model Portfolio and our positioning right now. Thus, we’ll stand pat tonight and practice more patience—our cash position is in the low 40% range.
Cabot Top Ten Trader
Weekly Issue September 18: Stocks chopped up and then down last week, and all told, not much has changed—the market is still in the throes of a two-month correction, with a sideways-to-down intermediate-term trend and few stocks moving in a sustained way on the upside; simply put, there’s little money being made right now. That doesn’t mean we’re in the storm cellar—we’re OK having a few lines in the water and starting some small positions in potential leaders as the odds favor the next big market move being up. But overall, a cautious stance is warranted given the evidence. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with a variety of sectors and setups represented. Our Top Pick is an old name, but it’s cheap, strong and has an AI infrastructure angle that should keep buyers interested. Try to buy on weakness.
Movers & Shakers September 22: For the past two months, the market had been pulling back and bouncing around normally, but this week, the post-Fed action has seen selling pressures pick up in a big way—the (more resilient) big-cap indexes have quickly retreated back to their August lows while broad measures have plunged.
Cabot Value Investor
Monthly Issue September 5: Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the September 2023 issue.
We do a deep-dive into what ails Citigroup (C) shares and remain steadfast in our conviction.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
Weekly Update September 19: As readers may know, we are generally not the biggest fans of private equity. Our biggest concern is that, while earlier private equity and venture capital funds were remarkably successful in identifying and capturing highly profitable investments for their clients, more recent vintages, going back perhaps 10-20 years, have mostly produced large profits for the fund managers. News that many Johnny-Come-Lately funds will actually lose significant money on the Instacart IPO highlights this problem. High-quality and early movers will likely post enormous profits.
Cabot Dividend Investor
Monthly Issue September 13: This year’s strong market has surprised most pundits. Hopefully, the good times last. Anything is possible.
I don’t want to get into the business of trying to predict what the market will do over the rest of the year. Even if you get things right, some stupid headline can come out of nowhere and change all the math. There’s a much better way than market timing.
Buying good stocks cheap is perhaps the best way to assure good returns over time. Different market sectors go in and out of favor all the time. Technology stocks were out of favor at the beginning of this year. No one wanted energy stocks at the beginning of 2021.
You may not think there are a lot of bargains anymore. Sure, it’s a bull market for the indexes. But it is still the darkest days of the bear market in certain places. Defensive stocks in utilities and other sectors are wallowing near the lows of last October while the indexes are whooping it up.
In this issue, I highlight three defensive portfolio positions. These stocks are all selling near 52-week lows and, in some cases, multi-year lows. But operational results at these companies have been as strong as ever. And all these currently out-of-favor stocks have long histories of superstar performance that blows away the returns of the overall market.
Forget the Fed, and inflation, or the velocity of the landing. Buying some of the very best dividend stocks on the market near the lowest valuation at which they ever sell should be a money-making strategy regardless of what happens with all that other stuff.
Weekly Update September 20: The surprisingly strong market of 2023 has been sputtering. The S&P 500 moved lower in August and is lower so far in September. But there’s no alarming selloff. The index is 3.6% lower than it was at the end of July. It’s mostly just a pause so far.
Cabot Early Opportunities
Monthly Issue September 20: In the September issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we look into what this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting could mean for the market. Then we dig into five small-cap companies from the industrial, biotech, software and clean energy markets. There’s something for everybody.
Cabot Income Advisor
Monthly Issue August 22: This market has confounded a lot of people over the past few years. Individual market sectors have been as perplexing as the indexes. Last year, the worst performing market sector by far was technology. This year it is by far the best performing sector. Last year, energy was the best performing sector. In the first half of this year, it was the worst performing.
Other sectors like consumer discretionary stocks that had been among the worst sectors last year are among the best this year. Defensive sectors including health care and utilities that delivered stellar returns last year have been dogs this year. In fact, the utility sector has displaced energy as this year’s worst performing S&P 500 sector.
The last few years have also illustrated a tendency for downtrodden stock sectors to rise from the canvas and become among the market’s best performers. Many utility stocks are currently near multi-year lows. But not because of the operational performance of the companies, which has largely remained solid. It’s mostly because of high interest rates, which may be peaking, and the mood of investors so far this year, which always changes.
Utilities are dirt cheap in an expensive market. They are also stellar relative performers in a slowing economy. But they are likely to rise from the current dark depths even if the economy remains buoyant. In this issue, I highlight one of the best performing utility stocks over the past 10 years that is currently selling near a multi-year low in a changing market.
Buying great stocks cheap is never a bad strategy over time.
I also highlight a fantastic covered call opportunity in a stock that has been on fire over the past couple of months. It’s a great chance to keep the income rolling in.
Weekly Update September 19: The market is always uncertain. No one ever really knows in which direction the next 5% or 10% move will be. But this is a much higher level of uncertainty than usual.
The good year so far has been a surprise. Most pundits were forecasting more gloom and doom at the beginning of the year. But the S&P 500 is up 15% YTD. It rallied on the promise of a soft landing and then got a further boost as artificial intelligence spending promises to be a strong growth catalyst for the market’s largest sector for years to come. After sputtering for the last six weeks, where does it go from here?
Cabot Turnaround Letter
Monthly Issue August 30: The attention of most investors, commentators and analysts has been on the winners, notably the Magnificent Seven, driving this year’s stock market rally. As contrarians, we are fine with letting a few overpriced trendy stocks capture the spotlight. One place that draws our attention is the other end of the spectrum – those with the worst performance. While most of these stocks fully deserve the market’s dour judgment, some have favorable changes underway. We look into four large and mid-cap stocks that fit this description and one that does not. We also discuss a tactic to help improve one’s success in investing in out-of-favor stocks.
Our feature recommendation this month is Advance Auto Parts (AAP), one of the four major auto parts retailers. The shares have fallen sharply out of favor, but a comprehensive and much-needed overhaul is now starting.
We also include our recent Sell recommendations: Toshiba (TOSYY), Holcim AG (HCMLY), First Horizon (FHN) and ESAB Corporation (ESAB), and our suspension of our rating of shares of Kopin Corporation (KOPN).
Weekly Update September 15: Comments on Brookfield Re (BNRE), Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Vodafone (VOD) and Wells Fargo (WFC). Lehman failed 10 years ago today, and why Ozempic could be a tailwind for junk food companies. Post-season possibilities for the Chicago Cubs?
Cabot Money Club
Monthly Magazine September: The expanding senior population is a major demographic trend that’s driving higher costs in senior living and senior care services across the country. If you’re retired (or planning to), unexpectedly high living expenses can put your entire retirement picture in doubt. This month, let’s explore assisted and unassisted living options for seniors, how to plan for those expenses even as they climb, and important factors to consider before you shake up your living situation. Plus, we’ll pick a few of the best-looking stocks taking advantage of the trend.
Stock of the Month Septembner 14: We’re still playing the seesaw game in the markets—up, down, up, down, etc. I don’t see any need for excess worry; just a little caution that we buy the right stocks. I’m still very long-term bullish, and why not?
The economy continues to strengthen; 79% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index reported positive earnings surprises for the second quarter, and the third quarter looks even better; home building continues to be strong, although low inventory levels continue to pressure resales. Home prices appear to be stabilizing, and employment remains strong.
The soothsayers seem to think that the Fed will keep rates steady at its next meeting, and the probability of a recession has fallen to 16%. What’s not to like?
ASK THE EXPERTS
Prime Question for Mike: Mike, do you or anyone else at Cabot play bearish ETFs during market downturns?
Mike: So, for me personally, I usually don’t – that said, I do occasionally bring up some ideas on that front and I know many subscribers use them to hedge here and there. I usually just hold cash, as the big money is in the big swing on the long side (during a sustained move with a fresh leader, etc.), and especially so since we’re getting good interest these days. But that’s just my style.
I know for a fact that Jacob Mintz of Cabot Options Trader does that – I know options are different but he does a great job both with stock selection and market timing. Beyond that, I think most are focused on stocks, but again, I know many people use my market timing system to play the short side when things get ugly.