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mike-cintolo

Mike Cintolo

Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Analyst, Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader

A growth stock and market timing expert, Michael Cintolo is Chief Investment Strategist of Cabot Wealth Network and Chief Analyst of Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader. Since joining Cabot in 1999, Mike has uncovered exceptional growth stocks and helped to create new tools and rules for buying and selling stocks. Perhaps most notable was his development of the proprietary trend-following market timing system, Cabot Tides, which has helped Cabot place among the top handful of market-timing newsletters numerous times.

From this author
Earnings season can be difficult to navigate for any investor. Here are my five rules on how to invest this earnings season.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market has rallied nicely in the past week, which has improved the evidence—though for both our indicators and leading stocks, it’s been good but not necessarily decisive just yet. Even so, we’ve been sitting on a big cash hoard for a few weeks and we’ll start to come off that today, buying half-sized (5% of the portfolio) positions in Marvell Tech (MRVL) and Reddit (RDDT) while also restoring our Buy rating on Shift4 (FOUR). Our cash position will now be around 48%—more details in tonight’s issue of Growth Investor.
January is living up to its volatile reputation but there’s no doubt it’s begun to improve—the intermediate-term trend, which was negative for most everything out there, is back to neutral; the broad market is showing some rapid, intriguing improvement; and individual stocks have improved their standing, with some popping to new highs. To be clear, this isn’t a buying panic, but after a few weeks of tedious action that has brought sentiment down, we’re OK with gradually extending your line while remaining nimble. We’ll up our Market Monitor to a level 7 today.

This week’s list is a mixed bag, with everything from growth to turnarounds to commodity names. Our Top Pick looks like one of the leaders of a new group move after being in the doghouse for a couple of years. Try to get in on dips.
After a tedious five-plus weeks in the market that saw most everything hit the skids, this week has been very encouraging, thanks in large part to the market’s reaction to Wednesday’s inflation report. On the week, the big-cap indexes are up 2% to 3% while the broader measures (which got hit hardest in the past month) are up 4.5% or so.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay alert. The five-week drubbing for the broad market and many growth titles has caused sentiment to really drop (a good thing), and this week’s bounce (as interest rates dipped) is intriguing … but at this point, we’ve seen one decent day of action after five tough weeks, so we’ll stand pat with our large (60%-ish) cash position and watch closely to see how this rally develops.
We’ve been using the following market timing indicators for decades, and they’ve served us quite well. Here’s how they work.
The market and some growth stocks held their own around year-end and popped to start the year, but last week was a bad one, with the sellers hitting most everything. There are tons of crosscurrents out there, and we’re starting to see some oversold measures really get stretched, so we’re not hibernating in a bear cave. But the bottom line is that the intermediate-term trend of most indexes, sectors and stocks are down so we continue to favor being cautious. Our Market Monitor now stands at a level 5.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with a lot of good setups for if/when the market does turn up. Our Top Pick has hung in there very well in recent weeks despite the market’s tumble.
These growth investing rules have been carefully selected as the most important guidelines a growth investor can use.
It’s not 2022 or 2008, of course, but the vast majority of stocks out there are in correction mode, and that includes the growth arena, which after a huge run began to hit turbulence in early December and has generally been under pressure since. Now, there are some rays of light out there, which we discuss in this issue, and we’re not having trouble keeping a full-ish watch list for the next upmove, but we’ve been favoring a cautious stance for a while now and think that remains the right move, as we’ve trimmed further this week and now have 60% on the sideline.

In tonight’s issue, we do write about one big positive factor out there (no strength in defensive stocks), talk about the allure of buying former winners “cheap” and, of course, write about all of our names and a bunch we’re watching for when the buyers retake control.
The year started out pretty well over the first two days (last week), but this week has been more of a downer, with the major indexes down a bit and with some leading growth stocks again coming under pressure. Going into Friday, most major indexes reversed early-week gains and are down 0.5% to 1% on the week and that doesn’t include what looks like a morning gap down following this morning’s jobs report.
Trying to pick a stock ahead of earnings is a coin toss. Targeting stocks that have had earnings gaps is a better way to play it.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is again mixed today, with the major indexes holding their own—but the under-the-surface action remains very hit-and-miss among growth stocks. Today’s bulletin concerns Palantir (PLTR), which has been churning for many weeks and is now starting to slip. It’s not a death knell, but we’re going to trim here, selling one-third of our remaining shares in the stock.
The new year is off to a good start, with many of the areas that took lumps during December (namely the broad market and growth stocks) showing strength through three days—and, just as important to us, many individual stocks have perked up, with some resilient names pushing to new highs and others that dipped to support bouncing. That’s a good thing, but we’re also keeping in mind the fact that early January is often tricky (lots of sharp moves in both directions), that the intermediate-term trend of most indexes and measures is still neutral-to-negative and that there remain lots of crosscurrents among individual stocks, with some selling off while others strengthen. As we wrote above, we are encouraged and will nudge our Market Monitor up to a level 6, but, while this is a good first step, we want to see the action continue to conclude that the December air pockets are a thing of the past.

For the third straight issue, this week’s list is heavy on growth stocks, which remains a sign that big investors aren’t hunting for safety. Our Top Pick is a name we love fundamentally and whose stock has held up relatively well in recent weeks despite a huge run. If you enter, use a loose stop given its volatility.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Happily, the year is off to a generally good start, but the situation remains tricky, with the market’s intermediate-term trends neutral-to-negative and with the early January effect (tons of volatility among individual stocks) being seen in many names. Today’s bulletin is regarding Axon Enterprises (AXON), which has been a solid winner for us but has been losing ground for a few weeks and today is cracking support on big volume. We’ll sell our remaining shares, taking the rest of our profit off the table. Details below.
Happy New Year! The market’s stance didn’t change much during the past couple weeks of 2024—big-cap indexes are trying to hang in there, but the vast majority of the market and growth stocks had a rough December. The equal-weight S&P 500, for instance, fell a whopping 6.6% on the month, and many growth measures were down about the same (if not a bit more).
WHAT TO DO NOW: Happy New Year! December’s weak action has created some decent setups and taken a chunk out of sentiment, both of which are good to see—but the underlying evidence hasn’t changed, with our Cabot Tides negative and few names heading higher. We came into the year with around half the portfolio in cash, and we’re remaining cautious today—our only change is placing Flutter (FLUT) on Hold.

First, a reminder that there will be no Top Ten issue next Monday—it’s one of our two weeks off all year—though we’ll send out a Movers & Shakers update next Friday. Being our last missive of 2024, we want to wish you and yours a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.

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As for the market, we’ve seen the Santa Claus rally kick in a bit in recent days—for the week as a whole, most every major index and growth measure is up by 1% to 2% on the week.
The bull market is still in full effect, but we’re seeing more air pockets in some leading titles. These four rules can help you keep your cool in a hot market.
First off, this being our last issue of the year, all of us at Cabot wish you and yours a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back with a regular update next Thursday after the calendar flips.

As for the market, it’s been a fantastic year, with leading growth titles letting loose on the upside, and we’re happy to have made hay while the sun is shining—the year isn’t quite done but it’s looking like our second-best returns of the past 18 years, when I took over. We’re glad to have done right by you.

That said, we always deal with the here and now, so we’re riding into year-end in a cautious stance, as growth stocks have wobbled and our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicators are waving yellow flags. We’re definitely flexible, as some of the recent selling may have cleared the decks for another leg up, but given the evidence, we want to see strength first before embarking on another major buying spree. In this issue, we highlight more than a few names we could jump into if things go well, while sharing more details on our remaining stocks and the recent action.
Trading volume reflects overall market activity, indicating the sheer amount of buying and selling of securities. Here’s why it’s important.
First and foremost, this is our last issue of 2024—next Monday is one of our two weeks off all year—so we want to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back at it with a fresh Top Ten issue on January 6.

As for the market, things finished up with a nice rally last Friday, but that doesn’t undo the action of the prior couple of weeks as a whole, which saw many leaders take hits and many major indexes crack their intermediate-term uptrends. To be clear, we remain flexible, and if the buyers pounce on the recent weakness for a few days, we think there will be lots of “resumption” patterns among individual stocks. Still, given the near- and intermediate-term selling we’ve seen, we want to see buyers show up in a meaningful way first before putting a bunch of money back to work. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5.

This week’s list is once again very growth-y, which we do find encouraging. Our Top Pick showed exceptional power in November and has now rested for three weeks, offering up a solid entry point, though we advise starting small given the environment.
While the big-cap indexes were acting fine, we had been writing about an increasing number of yellow flags out there—it started with secondary measures like sentiment (which got buoyant in the weeks after the election), and early last week, we saw the first signs that some key leading stocks were coming under pressure. Indeed, we came into this week with our Market Monitor down to a level 6.
First and foremost, all of us here at Cabot wish you a very Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season. Just a heads up that we’ll be publishing our last issue of Growth Investor this year next Thursday (December 26).

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WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain close to shore. Given the huge run, elevated sentiment and some cracks in growth stocks, we pared back fairly aggressively a couple of weeks ago, coming into this week with 37% in cash. And today we’re paring back further as the under-the-hood selling has come to the surface this week—we’ll take the rest of our profit in Cava (CAVA) and cut our loss in ProShares Russell 2000 Fund (UWM), which will leave us with around half in cash. Details below.
After a huge run, last week definitely showed some short-term character changes for many stocks, especially leading titles, with some flashing legitimate abnormal action; even among the top-down evidence, we’ve seen sluggishness, with the broad market showing wear and tear as sentiment remains relatively buoyant. That said, there are still plenty of stocks either holding their own or still doing well, too, including some growth-y themes that are seeing fresh buying of late, a sign big investors aren’t going into hibernation. When you put it all together, we do think paring back some and seeing how things play out makes sense, but it’s as important as ever to take things on a stock-by-stock basis. We dropped our Market Monitor to a level 6 and will leave it there today, but we’re flexible and could ratchet it higher if growth stocks start to rebound strongly.

This week’s list has a wide assortment of names—but nearly all of them are growth-oriented, which we take as a good sign. Our Top Pick is a mega-cap that staged an awesome breakout on earnings last week. Near-term wobbles are possible, but we think big investors will support any dip.
We had been writing about some of the secondary yellow flags that had been popping up of late, mainly due to the incredible rise in many growth stocks in both price (well above moving averages) and time (the biggest winners got going back in September), as well as near-term sentiment (getting giddy, not just with growth stocks but everything post-election).
After an amazing run higher, growth stocks hit an air pocket this week, with many highfliers coming down and some abnormal action being seen. We haven’t exactly floored the accelerator during the past few weeks, and we took our cues from individual stocks, paring back this week and leaving us with a good-sized cash position. That said, we’re not making any major market call--the trends remain up, and many growth stocks are acting OK--so while we want to see how growth reacts from here, we’re flexible and could put some money back to work soon if key names stabilize.