October 16, 2025

Both the S&P 600 SmallCap Index and the Russell 2000 are trading higher than they were a week ago, making the ugly selloff last Friday look like a one-off event.

That said, it’s totally valid to be at least a little concerned about the trade war heating up again. And while it sounds like progress could soon be made in the government shutdown (Senate Majority Leader Thune is rumored to be talking with Democrats about extending ACA subsidies in exchange for reopening the government), there’s little doubt that the longer the shutdown goes on the greater the risks are to the market.

Even if the government remains shuttered next week, we should get September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) next Friday. And we’re supposed to get the Producer Price Index (PPI) data today. These inflation numbers should be released since the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) folks are still working.

CPI inflation is expected to come in around 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. This is likely due to Trump’s tariffs – if not for those, CPI probably would be pretty close to 2%.

Despite CPI running about 1% above target, the Fed is still expected to cut by 25bps on October 29. Comments from Fed members this week have helped keep the odds of this cut well above 90%. The odds of another 25bps cut in December are currently 94%.

Combine these expected cuts with expectations that earnings will continue to grow into 2026, and the stock market “should” do well in the quarters ahead.

Earnings in the S&P 500 and S&P 600 are expected to rise by 10% and 11%, respectively this year, then accelerate to grow by 13.5% and 18.5%, respectively, next year.

Of course, there are numerous curveballs that could inspire analysts to throw those estimates out the window. But for those of us trying to keep an eye on the big picture – even if the day-to-day action gets a little messy – this macro perspective really does help to keep things in perspective.

We don’t have any earnings reports from our portfolio stocks yet.

Recent Changes

Byrna Technologies (BYRN) was sold on Monday

Updates

Argan (AGX) is one of the best small-cap ways to play the AI data center, natural gas power and electrification of everything themes. That’s driving more attention toward the stock and is the big-picture reason why JPMorgan just upgraded the stock to Overweight on Monday and placed it on “Positive Catalyst” watch. JPMorgan expects management to announce several new project awards on the Q3 call on December 3, including several power and industrial jobs that will push backlog significantly over $2 billion. If that happens, and if the projects come in with solid pricing (i.e., Argan will be able to grow profit margins), the stock should react very favorably. This is exactly why we got involved in the stock. BUY

Projected Earnings Date: December 3

A10 Networks (ATEN) continues to be a nothingburger, and with no news flow there has been no catalyst to get the stock moving. The story has been about the same with larger peer Cisco (CSCO), though that stock has acted well over the last two sessions. ATEN earnings date has been set for Tuesday, November 4. BUY

Confirmed Earnings Date: November 4

Artivion (AORT) continues to trade above the 40 level and, in fact, has moved to a five-week high this morning. On Monday the company put out a press release highlighting late-breaking data from AMDS PERSEVERE and AMDS PROTECT trials at the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) Annual Meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark. The data were extremely positive for both the 40 study patients in the PERSEVERE trial (assessment taken at 30 days post-implantation) and the 141 patients in the PROTECT trial (results taken at 3-6 months after implantation). Pending FDA approval of AMDS, we’re expecting Artivion to exercise its option to acquire the technology by the middle of next year. HOLD HALF

Projected Earnings Date: October 30

AvePoint (AVPT) has been trending lower for the last couple of weeks on no significant news. Earnings should be out around November 6. This report should give us some insight into how business in the public sector is faring. Concern over that segment has been one of the reasons the stock has lacked momentum. BUY

Projected Earnings Date: November 6

Byrna (BYRN) was sold on Monday. SOLD

Enovix (ENVX) stock continues to act well for the fifth week in a row. The stock is close to the level it was trading at just ahead of the Q2 report on August 31. There is no news coming out of the company to support the rally. Earnings should be out around November 11. For the stock to really get going by the end of 2025, we will need a clear path to mass production in 2026, supported by purchase orders. The recent warrant and convertible note offerings should support all four lines being built out at Fab-2, which should allow for significant order quantities. Revenue is expected to be around $33 million this year, ramping to roughly $100 million in 2026. But without confirmed purchase orders, these are really just best-guess estimates. HOLD

Projected Earnings Date: November 11

FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) hasn’t made any public comments since speaking at the Three Part Advisors Conference in late August, when management talked about plans to pivot to a pure-play short line and regional rail company. There’s no way the broader investing public knows about this “plan,” so I’d like to hear a lot more about it on the upcoming conference call. That would give us an opportunity to gauge the market’s reaction. The report comes out Thursday, October 30, with a conference call to follow Friday morning at 8:00 AM ET. Shares of FIP have acted well over the last three weeks, partially because interest rates have fallen. BUY

Confirmed Earnings Date: October 30

Genius Sports (GENI) is our latest pick and is trading slightly above our entry point, mostly thanks to a 4.4% pop yesterday. Genius is a U.K.-based sports data and technology company that operates in a duopoly industry with Sportstradar (SRAD), a larger company that I cover in my Cabot Early Opportunities advisory service. Both stocks fell back earlier in October on concerns that the Online Sports Betting (OSB) players (some of SRAD and GENI’s customers) won’t have the regulatory protection they were expected to have and that prediction market operators, like Kalshi and Polymarket, could “swoop in” and grab market share with sports betting. I haven’t dug up any recent comments from GENI’s management team on the topic, but I did find some from SRAD’s. I believe both management teams would have a similar perspective on this. In recent meetings with JPMorgan analysts, SRAD says it sees more opportunity than not with prediction markets. There are three potential scenarios: (1) The prediction market players will be shut down, which means no change to the status quo from a few months ago; (2) they will be legalized, which means SRAD can sell them data and products, which is good; or (3) they will be able to keep operating, which SRAD thinks will have limited impact on its business. I believe information from this meeting is why shares of both SRAD and GENI have performed well over the last two sessions. BUY HALF

Projected Earnings Date: November 18

Hannan Metals (HANNF, HAN.CA) hasn’t had any news this week. Recall that last week the company put out a press release saying sampling has found potential for multiple mineralization systems around the existing high-grade Previsto Central footprint. While far from confirmed, the hope is that there is a much larger system in this area of the Valiente district. A team has collected the information needed to submit to Peru’s regulatory bodies for a DIA, which is the main environmental certification required for low-impact mineral exploration. Management expects to start drilling at Previsto in 2026. As an exploration company, this stock won’t necessarily reflect movement in the price of gold since it’ll be a while before any gold can be produced and sold. It’s more likely to trade on drilling results. BUY

Natural Grocers (NGVC) stock, along with those of other grocery stores, has acted well this week. Albertsons (ACI) was the big mover in the group. We’re looking at the next earnings report around November 13. The newsflow here has mostly been around expansion of the company’s private-label branded products, with organic tortillas just added to previous releases of organic yogurt, tortilla chips and egg pasta. The next upside move should begin when enthusiasm for new store openings builds. Management has said the pace of new store openings should accelerate next year, with six to eight stores planned. BUY HALF

Projected Earnings Date: November 13

Perpetua Resources (PPTA) continues to act extremely well, as gold and rare earth stocks have gone bonkers lately. Our paper gain moved from 125% a week ago to 157% as of yesterday’s close. Perpetua has received conditional Notice to Proceed from the U.S. Forest Service. This means the Stibnite gold project can move into the development stage, once financial assurances are made. Management has recently said it’s speaking with Glencore (GLNCY), Trafigura, Clarios, Nyrstar and Sunshine Silver to evaluate possible off-site antimony refining partnerships, with a decision expected by year-end. President and CEO Jon Cherry apparently appeared on FOX yesterday morning at 7:30 am ET to talk about China, critical minerals and antimony with Anchor Maria Bartiromo. You can watch the video here. BUY HALF

Xometry (XMTR) announced the release of a new mobile app this week that’s intended to help manufacturing companies accept jobs and manage their workflow from mobile devices. The mobile app mirrors much of the functionality that’s existed on the Workcenter platform, which launched a number of years ago for desktops. The stock is trading down this morning due to two reasons. First, Philly Fed manufacturing data (just covers PA, NJ and DE) was worse than expected, the lowest since April. Probably having a bigger impact was a downgrade from “Buy” to “Neutral” at Goldman, which also boosted its price target on XMTR from 42 to 49. Earnings are expected on November 6. I have a Buy Half rating on the stock and will stick with that. The company is operating in a market that’s faced a lot of disruption from tariffs and, on balance, has been winning more business as companies (both in the U.S. and in Europe) try to build resilience into their supply chains. Moreover, Xometry delivered record gross margin of 35.4% in Q2. If the company can continue to grow gross margin in the 35% to 40% range, as management said is the goal, this could remove a significant overhang on the stock. BUY HALF

Projected Earnings Date: November 6

Currently Open

Copyright © 2025. All rights reserved. Copying or electronic transmission of this information without permission is a violation of copyright law. For the protection of our subscribers, copyright violations will result in immediate termination of all subscriptions without refund. Disclosures: Cabot Wealth Network exists to serve you, our readers. We derive 100% of our revenue, or close to it, from selling subscriptions to our publications. Neither Cabot Wealth Network nor our employees are compensated in any way by the companies whose stocks we recommend or providers of associated financial services. Employees of Cabot Wealth Network may own some of the stocks recommended by our advisory services. Disclaimer: Sources of information are believed to be reliable but they are not guaranteed to be complete or error-free. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that subscribers acting on information assume all risks involved. Buy/Sell Recommendations: are made in regular issues, updates, or alerts by email and on the private subscriber website. Subscribers agree to adhere to all terms and conditions which can be found on CabotWealth.com and are subject to change. Violations will result in termination of all subscriptions without refund in addition to any civil and criminal penalties available under the law.