Issues
Happy Thanksgiving week, everyone! The market’s much-needed strong start to this holiday-shortened week is certainly something to be thankful for in the midst of what has mostly been a rough November, particularly for growth investors. Maybe today’s run-up will spark a turnaround. In case there are more wild gyrations ahead, however, today we add a low-beta, way-undervalued utility stock that I recommended to my Cabot Value Investor audience earlier this month. We could use a couple more defensive positions as the market has become more risk-off, and this stock certainly qualifies.
Details inside.
Details inside.
It was another rocky week for the market as the tone was set by a rotation out of richly valued tech names, worries over whether the Federal Reserve would stay on hold rather than cut interest rates, and the big story was ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. By week’s end the S&P 500 and Dow had lost 2%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2%.
It was another rocky week for the market as the tone was set by a rotation out of richly valued tech names, worries over whether the Federal Reserve would stay on hold rather than cut interest rates, and the big story was ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. By week’s end the S&P 500 and Dow had lost 2%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2%.
*Note: Your next issue of Cabot Explorer will arrive next Wednesday, November 26 due to the market holiday next Thursday, November 27 in observance of Thanksgiving Day.
Nvidia (NVDA) sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced Blackwell AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and beating consensus estimates. This should keep AI momentum moving forward.
By coincidence, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) high level visit to Washington this week led to the Commerce Department approving sales of substantial advanced chips to Saudia Arabia as well as a slew of related deals. My question is whether these deals are investing in Saudi’s economic transformation rather than in American jobs, technology, and growth.
Nvidia (NVDA) sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced Blackwell AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and beating consensus estimates. This should keep AI momentum moving forward.
By coincidence, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) high level visit to Washington this week led to the Commerce Department approving sales of substantial advanced chips to Saudia Arabia as well as a slew of related deals. My question is whether these deals are investing in Saudi’s economic transformation rather than in American jobs, technology, and growth.
The market continues to be on edge but having lightened up over the last two and a half months we’re in a decent position to add some exposure today.
This month’s issue offers fresh opportunities in the red-hot pharma space, as well as two little-known mid-cap industrial stories, one in radiation protection and the other in the oil and gas market. Wrapping things up is an introduction to what’s arguably the best play on utility-scale solar.
Enjoy!
This month’s issue offers fresh opportunities in the red-hot pharma space, as well as two little-known mid-cap industrial stories, one in radiation protection and the other in the oil and gas market. Wrapping things up is an introduction to what’s arguably the best play on utility-scale solar.
Enjoy!
Before we dive into this week’s idea we need to move on from our Applied Digital (APLD) covered call as the stock has come under intense selling pressure as the AI story has weakened.
It doesn’t take a proprietary market timing system to see that the evidence has been weakening during the past few weeks—and especially during the past two weeks. That said, the major indexes have refused to give it up, with the big-cap indexes holding near their 50-day lines and, frankly, with more than a few high-relative-strength stocks holding in there. Even so, given the selling, we think it’s best to stay close to shore right now: We’ve moved our Market Monitor to a level 4, which isn’t a sign to sell wholesale, but to limit new buying in general while tightening stops and holding a good amount of cash.
This week’s list surprisingly still has a lot of resilient growth names, which we continue to find interesting given the selling that’s been going on. Our Top Pick is a well-sponsored medical firm with solid growth and a powerful recent breakout.
This week’s list surprisingly still has a lot of resilient growth names, which we continue to find interesting given the selling that’s been going on. Our Top Pick is a well-sponsored medical firm with solid growth and a powerful recent breakout.
The market has gotten a lot bumpier in November, though the major indexes haven’t given up much ground. That’s because even as the air comes out of the (perhaps overinflated) artificial intelligence balloon of late, investors are instead rotating into the many under-loved names in other sectors. Today, we add a stock in one of those underappreciated sectors. It’s an educational company that Carl Delfeld recommended to his Cabot Explorer audience last month. And the stock is having a solid year.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Despite a frantic week of heavy sector rotation, the indexes managed to hang in there. Essentially, lofty tech valuations in the AI and growth spaces are now in question, and that hot money poured into defensive sectors. In the end, the S&P 500 eked out a +0.08% gain, the Dow rose +0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost -0.45% last week.
Despite a frantic week of heavy sector rotation, the indexes managed to hang in there. Essentially, lofty tech valuations in the AI and growth spaces are now in question, and that hot money poured into defensive sectors. In the end, the S&P 500 eked out a +0.08% gain, the Dow rose +0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost -0.45% last week.
The market’s evidence has clearly worsened the past two weeks and, really, there hasn’t been any money made in growth stocks since late September, when more names began to flash abnormal action and crack. We’ve mostly been selling in recent weeks, building up a big cash position of 56%, and tonight we’re hanging on to that as our Cabot Tides is on the fence, Two-Second Indicator is negative and many stocks are headed south. To be fair, the indexes are hanging in there and we still have many stocks we like (we write about some liquid biopsy stocks and other potential leaders in tonight’s issue), so we’re staying flexible--but right now it’s prudent to hold our cash and see how this selling wave plays out.
Hopefully, by the time you read this, the government shutdown will be over (at least for a couple of months). It’s about time! I was lucky on my trip to Florida a couple of weeks ago that I only sat on the tarmac for two hours, as things certainly have become much worse for travelers around the country since then.
Who knows if Congress will work out the kinks by January, but at least it’s some progress.
Who knows if Congress will work out the kinks by January, but at least it’s some progress.
Updates
Just when it looked like happy days were here again, volatility has reared its ugly head.
Granted, this week’s volatility spike was muted by historical standards, but relative to the ultra-low volatility of the last few weeks, it was enough to give pause for the bulls.
Granted, this week’s volatility spike was muted by historical standards, but relative to the ultra-low volatility of the last few weeks, it was enough to give pause for the bulls.
WHAT TO DO NOW: We remain overall bullish, but fewer growth stocks and sectors are making headway of late, and with earnings season revving up, we’re becoming more selective on the buy side while tightening stops on some laggards. In the Model Portfolio tonight, we’re going to sell our stake in Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), start a half-sized position in Life360 (LIF) and place Uber (UBER) back on Hold. Our cash position will remain around 32%.
After hitting multi-month highs last Thursday, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index has since pulled back modestly.
Given all the talk of tariffs and Trump firing Powell, and the beginning of earnings season (so far so good), I’d say a modest pullback is a win.
Given all the talk of tariffs and Trump firing Powell, and the beginning of earnings season (so far so good), I’d say a modest pullback is a win.
Summer stasis has taken hold of the market as it often does this time of year, with the S&P 500 virtually unchanged (+0.3%) since the calendar flipped to July. Considering stocks entered the month at all-time highs despite a slew of existential threats (tariffs, high interest rates, two major overseas wars, etc.), holding the line counts as a victory.
Will it last? I’m guessing we’ll get a pullback of some kind – probably at least 5% – sometime in the next couple months, perhaps not until just after Labor Day, when institutional investors and hedge funder types return from their summer getaways in the Hamptons and Martha’s Vineyard and start selling out of their long-neglected weakest positions (a major reason why September is by far the worst month for stocks, historically).
Will it last? I’m guessing we’ll get a pullback of some kind – probably at least 5% – sometime in the next couple months, perhaps not until just after Labor Day, when institutional investors and hedge funder types return from their summer getaways in the Hamptons and Martha’s Vineyard and start selling out of their long-neglected weakest positions (a major reason why September is by far the worst month for stocks, historically).
The market is stuck in the mud. But that might be a good thing, considering that tariff uncertainty is back. This time, tariff fears are just keeping stocks from going higher and not crushing the market, so far.
The administration is currently threatening to enforce 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union (EU) starting on August 1. However, investors perceive a strong chance that President Trump will either back off the threat or make deals.
The administration is currently threatening to enforce 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union (EU) starting on August 1. However, investors perceive a strong chance that President Trump will either back off the threat or make deals.
Tariff uncertainty is back. But this time it’s just keeping stocks from going higher, not dragging the market lower.
The administration is currently threatening to enforce 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union (EU) starting on August 1. However, investors perceive a strong chance that President Trump will either back off the threat or make deals. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to hover right near the high.
The administration is currently threatening to enforce 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union (EU) starting on August 1. However, investors perceive a strong chance that President Trump will either back off the threat or make deals. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to hover right near the high.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Dollar Tree (DLTR), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC) and Paramount Global (PARA).
Note: Due to a technical issue, publication of your Cabot Cannabis Investor update has been delayed by one day. We apologize for any inconvenience; future updates and issues will be delivered per the normal publishing schedule.
If you have been steadily averaging down in cannabis stocks during the sector’s dark days all year, well done.
You are finally being rewarded.
If you have been steadily averaging down in cannabis stocks during the sector’s dark days all year, well done.
You are finally being rewarded.
Action in the small-cap indices continues to be very encouraging.
Since the beginning of June, both the S&P 600 SmallCap Index and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
Since the beginning of June, both the S&P 600 SmallCap Index and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
Corporate America is weathering trade uncertainty remarkably well. The S&P 500 index has recovered more than 20% since bottoming out in April but is up only 6% this year.
You may have noticed that the stagflation scenario (inflation and slow growth) is a theme being promoted by the financial media with comparisons to the 1970s. But even if this becomes a reality, stocks are still your best option to protect and grow your wealth. In the 1970s, large-cap value outperformed growth stocks and long-term Treasury bonds. Dividend-paying stocks also outperformed. Our strategy will remain the same regardless of the pundits, value, quality, and momentum.
You may have noticed that the stagflation scenario (inflation and slow growth) is a theme being promoted by the financial media with comparisons to the 1970s. But even if this becomes a reality, stocks are still your best option to protect and grow your wealth. In the 1970s, large-cap value outperformed growth stocks and long-term Treasury bonds. Dividend-paying stocks also outperformed. Our strategy will remain the same regardless of the pundits, value, quality, and momentum.
Uncertainty is growing in a market perched near the high.
Tariffs are front and center again. The July 9 deadline, which began the market rally from the low when the administration issued a 90-day extension, is rapidly approaching. The deadline raises many of the issues the market hated back in April. Stocks started the week on a down note in anticipation.
Tariffs are front and center again. The July 9 deadline, which began the market rally from the low when the administration issued a 90-day extension, is rapidly approaching. The deadline raises many of the issues the market hated back in April. Stocks started the week on a down note in anticipation.
*Note: Your weekly Cabot Turnaround Letter update is arriving a day early, on Thursday, July 3, due to the market holiday on Friday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC), Paramount Global (PARA) and Toast (TOST).
GE Aerospace (GE) strength driven by record backlogs in its commercial aerospace segment.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC), Paramount Global (PARA) and Toast (TOST).
GE Aerospace (GE) strength driven by record backlogs in its commercial aerospace segment.
Alerts
DeepSeek: “Gift to the World” or Nightmare for U.S. AI Ambitions
WHAT TO DO NOW: The popular AI stocks were hit extremely hard today on fears that the CapEx spending boom could be cut short following the DeepSeek successes, which in turn dragged the major indexes lower. Outside of AI, the damage was reasonable, which is a plus, but with the major indexes still trending sideways and few stocks decisively moving higher, we’re remaining relatively cautious. In the Model Portfolio, we’re forced to quickly cut our loss in Marvell Tech (MRVL), which was caught up in the out-of-the-blue selling storm among AI stocks. Our cash position will now be around 53%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market has rallied nicely in the past week, which has improved the evidence—though for both our indicators and leading stocks, it’s been good but not necessarily decisive just yet. Even so, we’ve been sitting on a big cash hoard for a few weeks and we’ll start to come off that today, buying half-sized (5% of the portfolio) positions in Marvell Tech (MRVL) and Reddit (RDDT) while also restoring our Buy rating on Shift4 (FOUR). Our cash position will now be around 48%—more details in tonight’s issue of Growth Investor.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is again mixed today, with the major indexes holding their own—but the under-the-surface action remains very hit-and-miss among growth stocks. Today’s bulletin concerns Palantir (PLTR), which has been churning for many weeks and is now starting to slip. It’s not a death knell, but we’re going to trim here, selling one-third of our remaining shares in the stock.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.