Issues
“Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors.” - African Proverb
For the first time this year, this week all three major benchmarks closed at all-time highs during the same session on the hunch that a lousy job market will spur a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
For the first time this year, this week all three major benchmarks closed at all-time highs during the same session on the hunch that a lousy job market will spur a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
This market is impressively resilient. It continues to forge higher even in the historically cranky post-summer environment.
Stocks could boom for the rest of the year. After all, the optimists have been right. And the longer-term prognosis is positive for stocks. However, the near-term direction is more precarious. There is still plenty of uncertainty swirling around with the market indexes perched at lofty valuations.
The tariff issues may be fading but they’re still out there. The Fed and the economy are also wild cards. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 currently sells at a price/earnings ratio of 28.8 times. That’s the highest valuation in the last 25 years. Anything can happen.
The current situation calls for a certain kind of stock that can thrive in almost any market environment. If the market takes off, it can participate. If the market goes flat, it can generate positive returns. And if the market turns south, it can yield superior relative returns.
In this issue, I highlight an existing portfolio position that is one of the very best midstream energy companies on the market. It pays a huge 6.9% yield, deals primarily with natural gas, sells at a cheap valuation, and has a massive growth spurt ahead as new projects come online.
The growing natural gas demand from utilities and exporters will provide an unprecedented runway for growth in the years ahead that historical performance doesn’t reflect.
Stocks could boom for the rest of the year. After all, the optimists have been right. And the longer-term prognosis is positive for stocks. However, the near-term direction is more precarious. There is still plenty of uncertainty swirling around with the market indexes perched at lofty valuations.
The tariff issues may be fading but they’re still out there. The Fed and the economy are also wild cards. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 currently sells at a price/earnings ratio of 28.8 times. That’s the highest valuation in the last 25 years. Anything can happen.
The current situation calls for a certain kind of stock that can thrive in almost any market environment. If the market takes off, it can participate. If the market goes flat, it can generate positive returns. And if the market turns south, it can yield superior relative returns.
In this issue, I highlight an existing portfolio position that is one of the very best midstream energy companies on the market. It pays a huge 6.9% yield, deals primarily with natural gas, sells at a cheap valuation, and has a massive growth spurt ahead as new projects come online.
The growing natural gas demand from utilities and exporters will provide an unprecedented runway for growth in the years ahead that historical performance doesn’t reflect.
The market had another week of heavy sector and index rotation nearly every day, as hot money seemingly chased the new fad/theme based on every economic data point and earnings reaction. Yet despite the day-to-day market wiggles, by week’s end, not much ground was gained or lost as the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Dow lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose by 1.1%.
After a tough start following the long weekend, the market did find some support by week’s end, but overall, the situation remains the same: The evidence is more positive than not, but when looking at individual stocks, there are many areas that are struggling, while on a day-to-day basis, money continues to thrash around. To be clear, that action doesn’t predict doom—this is a bull market after all—but it does mean that making and holding onto money in this environment remains a challenge. We’ll stick with a Level 7 on the Market Monitor.
Interestingly, this week’s list does have a bit more of a growth flavor, though it’s not all AI, as other areas are seeing a bit of leadership emerge. Our Top Pick has been a clear mid-cap leader of the advance and is now exhaling to its 10-week line.
Interestingly, this week’s list does have a bit more of a growth flavor, though it’s not all AI, as other areas are seeing a bit of leadership emerge. Our Top Pick has been a clear mid-cap leader of the advance and is now exhaling to its 10-week line.
So far, so good in September, as there’s no market correction in sight. The increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut later this month is helping to counteract the negative effects of seasonality during the traditional “spooky season.” Let’s hope the Fed doesn’t disappoint when they convene next week. In the meantime, the investing waters are warm, so let’s take a bigger swing this week by adding one of the world’s greatest and highest-profile growth companies to our portfolio. It’s a recent recommendation from Carl Delfeld to his Cabot Explorer audience. And it’s a former market darling that, after a rough couple years, is starting to gain traction with investors again.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The market had another week of heavy sector and index rotation nearly every day, as hot money seemingly is chasing the new fad/theme based on every economic data point and earnings reaction. Yet despite the day-to-day market wiggles, by week’s end not much ground was made or lost as the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Dow lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose by 1.1%.
The market had another week of heavy sector and index rotation nearly every day, as hot money seemingly is chasing the new fad/theme based on every economic data point and earnings reaction. Yet despite the day-to-day market wiggles, by week’s end not much ground was made or lost as the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Dow lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose by 1.1%.
The bull market is alive and well, but the growth stock environment remains tricky at best, with more names either testing or cracking intermediate-term support during the past couple of weeks. Eventually, there will be another run in growth, possibly soon given the many stocks that have built launching pads during the past two-plus months; we do have an expanding watch list of solid setups. But for now, we’re playing things cautiously, trying to give our positions a chance but also holding a good chunk of cash until the meat-grinder environment shifts.
Rumors of the global economy’s imminent demise have been greatly exaggerated – at least so far. Indeed, the IMF estimates that worldwide GDP will expand by more than 3% both this year and next, which is in line with the normal GDP growth rate since the Great Recession. And yet, certain stocks are being treated like it’s 2009 out there. That includes this month’s addition to our Growth & Income Portfolio. It’s a big-cap, big-name company whose shares are nearly 30% off their highs, but the firm is on track for its best year in terms of sales and earnings outside of a Covid-era anomaly. It’s a company that flourishes when the global economy is healthy. And the stock is on sale, having not fully recovered from the spring tariff worries.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Today we’ll take a half-sized position in a small-cap company that’s like the Amazon of manufacturing. Its marketplace is revolutionizing this outdated industry and bringing it into the digital age.
Despite several years of depressed manufacturing in the U.S., the company is growing. That’s a testament to its platform. And there’s also a potential growth kicker … Trump’s tariff policies and desire to kick off an onshoring boom.
All the details are inside the September Issue of Cabot Small Cap Confidential.
Despite several years of depressed manufacturing in the U.S., the company is growing. That’s a testament to its platform. And there’s also a potential growth kicker … Trump’s tariff policies and desire to kick off an onshoring boom.
All the details are inside the September Issue of Cabot Small Cap Confidential.
Despite two big potential market-moving events (NVDA earnings and PCE inflation data), the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all finished the week mostly unchanged to marginally lower, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) rose marginally.
For the past two months, the market has been positive by most top-down indicators, but it’s gotten a lot trickier as time has gone on, with many growth areas cracking intermediate-term support, with repeated bouts of rotation and with upward progress slowing down. The good news is that even after today’s broad selling, the intermediate-term trend remains pointed up and many Top Ten stocks are holding their own, but just going with what we’ve seen, it’s getting tougher to make (and keep) much money. Right here, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7, but we think holding some cash and taking some profits on the way up remains a good strategy.
Despite the rotation, we did see some earnings winners last week among growth stocks, and this week’s list has a few alongside names from other areas of the market. Our Top Pick is a smaller name that broke out powerfully last month and has a solid story—shares are a bit thinly traded, so start small and aim for dips.
Despite the rotation, we did see some earnings winners last week among growth stocks, and this week’s list has a few alongside names from other areas of the market. Our Top Pick is a smaller name that broke out powerfully last month and has a solid story—shares are a bit thinly traded, so start small and aim for dips.
Updates
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Intel (INTC), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) and SLB Ltd. (SLB).
Consensus assumptions for the energy sector this year are mostly bearish, but several factors argue in favor of a contrarian bullish view.
Consensus assumptions for the energy sector this year are mostly bearish, but several factors argue in favor of a contrarian bullish view.
WHAT TO DO NOW: From a top-down perspective, there’s plenty of good news from the secondary evidence and our Cabot Tides is very likely to turn positive tomorrow, which is another good sign. That said, individual stocks remain very tricky, with lots of selling on strength and poor earnings reactions among names we own or have been watching—that’s not a reason to be bearish, but we advise going slow until we see more real breakouts. In the Model Portfolio tonight, we’re jettisoning our small stake in Argenx (ARGX), which has fallen apart this week pre- and post-earnings, but we’ll add two new half-sized positions: Halozyme (HALO) and GE Aerospace (GE). That will leave us with around 70% in cash—we’d like to put more cash to work but will wait for names to emerge instead of forcing the issue.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to sit tight on interest rates yesterday and rising concerns about upside inflation risk in the mid-term, the broad market continues to act well on hopes of tariff de-escalation.
So far, those hopes are well-founded.
So far, those hopes are well-founded.
Warren Buffett isn’t concerned about the market’s slow start this year. “What’s happened in the last 30, 45 days is really nothing,” the Oracle of Omaha said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting last weekend. In the grand scheme of market history, he’s right.
The market just had a big leg higher. Last Friday the S&P 500 concluded an epic nine-day run of positive gains, the longest such streak in more than 20 years. The index rose by more than 10% during the streak. What’s going on?
Things are certainly looking up in the market. The S&P 500 had an epic nine-day run of positive gains, the longest such streak in more than twenty years. The index rose over 10% during the streak. What’s going on?
The rally began after President Trump indicated a de-escalation of the trade war with China. There are ongoing negotiations with the other trading partners during the 90-day pause initiated on April 9th. A perception is building that the worst of the tariff uncertainty is behind. Stocks also got a boost from earnings and economic news.
The rally began after President Trump indicated a de-escalation of the trade war with China. There are ongoing negotiations with the other trading partners during the 90-day pause initiated on April 9th. A perception is building that the worst of the tariff uncertainty is behind. Stocks also got a boost from earnings and economic news.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), Intel (INTC), Kenvue (KVUE), Pan American Silver (PAAS) and SLB Ltd. (SLB).
The S&P 500 and other major indexes finished up yesterday after slightly negative first-quarter economic growth. Not much movement in Explorer stocks this week except Sea Limited (SE), up 11%.
Chinese exports have recently plunged as the psychology of tariffs takes a toll. China relied on exports for about a third of its economic growth last year.
Chinese exports have recently plunged as the psychology of tariffs takes a toll. China relied on exports for about a third of its economic growth last year.
What a difference a week makes. Just a week ago, the S&P was plunging back toward the low. But then the S&P rallied 4.5% and the Nasdaq soared 6.6% in the final four days of last week, erasing most of the index’s April losses.
This is a huge week for earnings and economic news. Maybe, just maybe, the market will be driven by something other than tariff news.
This week, 180 of the 500 S&P companies report earnings, including several of the big tech companies. On Wednesday, first-quarter GDP will be released. Jobs and inflation reports also come out this week. The consensus expectation for first-quarter GDP is 0.10%, way down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.
This week, 180 of the 500 S&P companies report earnings, including several of the big tech companies. On Wednesday, first-quarter GDP will be released. Jobs and inflation reports also come out this week. The consensus expectation for first-quarter GDP is 0.10%, way down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC), Paramount Global (PARA), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and UiPath (PATH).
Centuri Holdings (CTRI) remains a strong performer in light of the tariff backdrop and thanks also to recent award wins.
Centuri Holdings (CTRI) remains a strong performer in light of the tariff backdrop and thanks also to recent award wins.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Start to slowly come off the sideline. Our Cabot Trend Lines and Cabot Tides remain negative, and most stocks are still south of key moving averages, so we’re remaining overall defensive—but today our Three Day Thrust indicator flashed, and while that doesn’t preclude some near-term volatility, it does hint that a bottom could be in and a good-sized rally will evolve down the road. That’s not a reason to buy willy-nilly, but given our monstrous cash hoard, we are slowly coming off the sidelines with two new small buys, adding half-sized stakes in Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) and Penumbra (PEN). Our cash position will still be around 75% after these buys; as always, we’ll follow the market from here in terms of more new buys—or backing off.
Alerts
I’m recommending that we sell our position in Solventum (SOLV). I’m recommending that we sell our position in Baxter International (BAX).
Cannabis stocks on Monday traded as if president-elect Donald Trump has abandoned his marijuana reform policies.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is acting powerfully since Tuesday’s election, and we’re seeing some outsized moves on earnings this week. We’ll have our full update of Growth Investor tonight, but this bulletin concerns AppLovin (APP), which is skyrocketing this morning after earnings, and of course, this comes after a big run. We’re going to lean against the wind here and take some partial profits, selling one-third of our position and holding the rest. Again, more color tonight.
Trump Victory May Spell Higher Costs for SharkNinja (SN); Lock in Gain; Sell UL Solutions (ULS)
UL Solutions (ULS) Reports; HubSpot (HUBS): Sell for Quick Gain
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.