After a holiday-shortened but very productive week for the market, here’s what’s happening with all our positions.

Since the effective federal hemp-derived THC ban was approved in the latest budget deal, cannabis investors have taken the change as a sign the Trump administration is no longer serious about rescheduling.

This is probably wrong. Cannabis sector CEOs closer to the rescheduling process than most investors think the sector-changing reform is still on track.

The broad market and growth stocks started to have issues in late September and by early November everything went over the falls, cracking the intermediate-term trend of most indexes and stocks. Encouragingly, though, the market has rebounded this week as we march toward the Thanksgiving holiday--it’s good to see, but especially for growth measures, there’s still more proving to do. Of course, with a lot of cash, we’re willing to buy, and if we see strength continue into early next week (past the holiday period) we could start putting money back to work. For now, though, we think it’s best to be patient and see if the market (and, more important) growth stocks can tell us the selling storm is definitively over.

Note: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the Cabot Turnaround Letter weekly update won’t be published on Friday. Instead, the next update and the Catalyst Report will be sent out on December 5.

Given the obvious risks of the current macroeconomic environment (inflation, geopolitical volatility, etc.), it’s my contention that sector selectivity has never been more important. That is, when evaluating stocks for potential purchase, it’s imperative that we consider the potential impact the macro climate might have on said investment going forward.

I’m bullish for 2026. But I’m not confident about the next few weeks.

Last week’s much-anticipated earnings report from AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) and the overdue September jobs report were expected to provide answers to the recent angst. Both reports were great. Stocks plunged anyway. That’s a bearish sign.

The market is always unpredictable in the near term. But it seems the greater likelihood over the next several weeks is choppy at best, with a good chance of further downside. But things can change between now and the December issue, and new stocks could be highlighted in weekly updates or via trade alert.

In this issue, I highlight a covered call on a stock that has been flying high over the past month. It has enough momentum to make the call premium huge. It’s a good time to secure a high income on a stock that may have peaked in a market that looks dicey over the rest of the year.

Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea, we do need to clean up our CENX position from the November expiration cycle, as the call we sold expired worthless, leaving us with our stock, which we will sell for a net virtual breakeven. Here are the details:

The evidence has continued to worsen on balance, which has us remaining in a cautious stance. That said, we’re also flexible given some longer-term positives and a couple of near-term secondary readings that popped up last week, which have typically occurred near market low points. Given that the indexes aren’t horror shows, we’re still open to the action this month being a shorter-term shakeout —but with so many things having rolled over, the onus is on the market to prove itself on the upside. Right now, we favor staying close to shore; we’ll stick with our Market Monitor at a level 4.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with AI, fresh medical names, recent earnings winners and some turnarounds, too. Our Top Pick is a steadier name that’s strong partly due to the AI wave; the stock just gapped on earnings and delivered a solid outlook that should keep buyers interested. Aim to enter on weakness.

Happy Thanksgiving week, everyone! The market’s much-needed strong start to this holiday-shortened week is certainly something to be thankful for in the midst of what has mostly been a rough November, particularly for growth investors. Maybe today’s run-up will spark a turnaround. In case there are more wild gyrations ahead, however, today we add a low-beta, way-undervalued utility stock that I recommended to my Cabot Value Investor audience earlier this month. We could use a couple more defensive positions as the market has become more risk-off, and this stock certainly qualifies.

Details inside.

It was another rocky week for the market as the tone was set by a rotation out of richly valued tech names, worries over whether the Federal Reserve would stay on hold rather than cut interest rates, and the big story was ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. By week’s end the S&P 500 and Dow had lost 2%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2%.

It was another rocky week for the market as the tone was set by a rotation out of richly valued tech names, worries over whether the Federal Reserve would stay on hold rather than cut interest rates, and the big story was ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. By week’s end the S&P 500 and Dow had lost 2%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2%.

*Note: Your next issue of Cabot Explorer will arrive next Wednesday, November 26 due to the market holiday next Thursday, November 27 in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Nvidia (NVDA) sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced Blackwell AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and beating consensus estimates. This should keep AI momentum moving forward.

By coincidence, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) high level visit to Washington this week led to the Commerce Department approving sales of substantial advanced chips to Saudia Arabia as well as a slew of related deals. My question is whether these deals are investing in Saudi’s economic transformation rather than in American jobs, technology, and growth.

The market continues to be on edge but having lightened up over the last two and a half months we’re in a decent position to add some exposure today.

This month’s issue offers fresh opportunities in the red-hot pharma space, as well as two little-known mid-cap industrial stories, one in radiation protection and the other in the oil and gas market. Wrapping things up is an introduction to what’s arguably the best play on utility-scale solar.

Enjoy!

There’s been a jump in volatility among individual stocks and some sectors (gold, oil, retail investor favorites, etc.), but at an index level, things continue to be pretty smooth. The S&P 600 SmallCap Index is trading higher than it was a week ago.

Let’s talk about bubbles.

There’s been a whole lot of investor speculation of late over whether we’re near an artificial intelligence bubble, akin to what we saw from the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century or the housing bubble that led to the 2008-09 Great Recession. Indeed, with AI spending (an estimated $300 to $400 billion this year) outpacing revenue (an estimated $60 billion this year) by roughly a 6-to-1 ratio – about double the capital expenditures-to-revenue ratio just before the dot-com bubble burst – the angst over an AI bubble is understandable, and perhaps warranted.

Looking good. The bull market is enduring the historically troubling months of September and October with nary a sign of resistance.

The S&P 500 is up about 15% year to date and within a whisker of the all-time high, as investors are more excited about earnings than worried about tariffs or the government shutdown. And why shouldn’t they be? Government shutdowns are always temporary. And tariff negotiations always culminate in an arrangement that satisfies the market.

Stocks started this week on a strong note. After sluggish performance over the past month, the S&P 500 is gaining steam.

Investors are focusing on the promising earnings season and a tamping down of tensions with China. The Trump administration has moderated its stance on China and will meet with them in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, earnings season is heating up with Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), and Coca-Cola (KO) reporting this week.

The introduction of fear to the financial market can be either a good thing or a bad thing—but seldom is it neither.

In the first case, increasing fear among investors in an environment characterized by fairly limited public participation (i.e. an uncrowded market), relatively unstretched valuations and plenty of liquidity often results in the “wall of worry” phenomenon in which stocks actually benefit from the rising fear levels.

Both the S&P 600 SmallCap Index and the Russell 2000 are trading higher than they were a week ago, making the ugly selloff last Friday look like a one-off event.

That said, it’s totally valid to be at least a little concerned about the trade war heating up again. And while it sounds like progress could soon be made in the government shutdown (Senate Majority Leader Thune is rumored to be talking with Democrats about extending ACA subsidies in exchange for reopening the government), there’s little doubt that the longer the shutdown goes on the greater the risks are to the market.

Explorer stocks were mixed this week as Asian stocks struggled amidst increased U.S.-China economic tensions and concern over Chinese economic growth.

Commodities are back but something to keep in mind was mentioned to me by a friend in the energy business: “America is running out of shale oil.” This has big implications for world oil markets and America’s energy mix since if we are running out of the shale oil that can be extracted at about $60/barrel, higher oil and energy prices are around the corner.

Volatility is back, with the VIX spiking above 20 for the first time since early August and above 21 for the first time since June.

Tariffs are the reason. Specifically, escalating tariff rhetoric between the U.S. and China, which spooked the market into its worst one-day selloff since April last Friday, and has prompted wild intraday swings every trading session since. So far, the damage to the major indexes has been fairly limited (the S&P 500 is less than 2% off its highs, as of this writing), but under the surface, a few yellow flags have emerged, including the number of 52-week lows among NYSE-listed stocks topping the magic number of 40 (it’s up to 63) that typically precludes a more pronounced market pullback. We’ll see how much the just-underway third-quarter earnings season can act as a yin to tariffs’ yang and hopefully provide a relatively high floor for stocks in the coming weeks. As I wrote in this space last week, that may depend on whether companies can cross the relatively high bar of 8% earnings estimates.

China could be a problem.

After spending most of the summer and September making a series of new highs, stocks suddenly tumbled on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% and the Nasdaq fell 3.56% in one day. It was tariff news that caused the carnage.

The market took a big hit for the first time in quite a while last week. But it is recovering nicely so far this week.

After spending most of the summer and September making a series of new highs, stocks suddenly reverted to last April’s form on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 2.71% and the Nasdaq fell 3.56% in one day. It was tariff news that caused the carnage.

In a raging bull market that has benefited virtually every one of the S&P’s 11 sectors, the conspicuous laggard among them has been the consumer staples.


The staples sector is down 2.4% year-to-date, compared to positive net returns on the other 10 sectors. Leadership in recent quarters, which is illustrated in the following chart, includes: info tech (up 13%), communications services (up 12%), consumer discretionary (up 10%) and utilities (up 8%).

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s trends remain in good shape, though the broad market is still a bit iffy and growth stocks are up and down—though, encouragingly, we have seen some solid snapback action this week, with a few names we own and are watching re-testing resistance. All told, the plan remains the same: Give our names some rope and look to add exposure in names as they get going, all while being selective. Tonight, we’re placing AppLovin (APP) on Hold due to its news-driven air pocket, but we’re adding another 3% stake in Arista (ANET), which is perking up. Our cash position will be around 29%.

I’m recommending that we sell our position in Helen of Troy (HELE).

We’re going to step aside from Byrna Technologies (BYRN) today.

Helen of Troy (HELE) is imploding on earnings today, despite beating estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue, however, declined 9% year over year, while earnings per share of 59 cents were less than half the $1.21 the company earned in the same quarter a year ago, though they were north of the 54-cent estimate

Sell a Half Position in UiPath (PATH)

Sell Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) & ThredUp (TDUP)

Fill Second Half: Sensient (SXT) and Unity (U)

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

We’re going to make a couple of moves today ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and the publishing of the September Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities.

A unique market timing tool, we use the Cabot Two-Second Indicator to determine the health of the stock market every day.

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I was talking with an investor recently about the latest stock market downturn. He was puzzled; if General Motors (GM) is supposedly such a great stock and vastly favored among portfolio managers, why would it fall 30% during a market correction?

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