October 23, 2025

There’s been a jump in volatility among individual stocks and some sectors (gold, oil, retail investor favorites, etc.), but at an index level, things continue to be pretty smooth. The S&P 600 SmallCap Index is trading higher than it was a week ago.

We haven’t really gotten into earnings season within our portfolio yet. But we do have some significant developments with several of our stocks, including a key approval for FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) and new analyst coverage on AvePoint (AVPT) and Natural Grocers (NGVC).

Even with the government still closed, we should get September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow. CPI inflation is expected to be 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. This is likely due to Trump’s tariffs – if not for those, CPI probably would be close to 2%.

Despite CPI running about 1% above target, the Fed is still expected to cut by 25bps at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Current odds of a cut are 99%. And odds of another cut in December are 89%.

Combine these expected cuts with expectations that earnings will continue to grow into 2026, and the stock market “should” do well in the quarters ahead.

That said, I’m watching all our stocks closely since the recent bout of volatility definitely has investors on edge.

Recent Changes

A10 Networks (ATEN) moves to SELL

Updates

Argan (AGX) was upgraded to Overweight by J.P. Morgan last week and placed on “Positive Catalyst” watch in a research note entitled, “The Hidden Gem(ma) of the AI Trade.” Gemma Power Systems is the name of the company’s subsidiary that gives Argan such a strong position in the U.S. gas power plant market. The company isn’t expected to report quarterly results for several weeks. When it does, I expect to hear about several new power and industrial jobs that will push backlog significantly over $2 billion. If that happens, and if the projects come in with solid pricing (i.e., Argan will be able to grow profit margins), the stock should react very favorably. The company has $572 million in cash and investments, $344 million in net liquidity and no debt. BUY

Projected Earnings Date: December 3

A10 Networks (ATEN) hasn’t done much of anything since we jumped on board in July, and there’s been no sustained excitement to speak of after the last earnings report. Without any momentum, this stock has been high on my list of names to step aside from, so we’ll do so today and take a modest loss of around 7%. SELL

Artivion (AORT) had another good week and is now trading in the low to mid-40s. Last week, management put out a press release highlighting late-breaking data from AMDS PERSEVERE and AMDS PROTECT trials at the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) Annual Meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark. The data were extremely positive for both the 40 study patients in the PERSEVERE trial (assessment taken at 30 days post-implantation) and the 141 patients in the PROTECT trial (results taken at 3-6 months after implantation). Pending FDA approval of AMDS, we’re expecting Artivion to exercise its option to acquire the technology by the middle of next year. HOLD HALF

Projected Earnings Date: October 30

AvePoint (AVPT) enjoyed a rally on Monday when Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with a buy rating and price target of 18.3, roughly 30% above where the stock was trading at the time. The bullish call highlighted AvePoint as a “data security play with strong Microsoft (MSFT) alignment and exposure to rising GenAI spending.” This alignment not only gives AvePoint access to a huge growth market but also some downside protection, given many competitors don’t have the same position. BUY

Projected Earnings Date: November 6

Byrna (BYRN) was sold last Monday. We got out at a good time since the stock has continued to slide since we sold. SOLD

Enovix (ENVX) will report Q3 results a week from next Wednesday. The stock pulled back late last week and is currently trading at about the same level that it closed at last Friday. There’s been no stock-specific news. As I said last week, for ENVX stock to really get going, we need a clear path to mass production in 2026 supported by purchase orders. The recent warrant and convertible note offerings should support all four lines being built out at Fab-2, which should allow for significant order quantities. Revenue is expected to be around $33 million this year, ramping to roughly $100 million in 2026. HOLD

Confirmed Earnings Date: November 5

FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) stock has acted well over the last month, though shares sold off a little on Tuesday and Wednesday. Management announced this week that the Repauno Port and Rail Terminal has received approval from the NJ Dept. of Environmental Protection for Phase 3 development, which includes construction of two underground granite caverns to store liquified petroleum gas products. The project is approved for capacity of over 600,000 barrels in each cavern (i.e., 1.2 million barrels total). Repauno’s existing underground storage cavern has a capacity of 180,000 barrels, along with ship-loading capabilities and a modern rail transloading system, which facilitates moving product from rail to ship. This approval is a significant catalyst for value creation at Repauno. This is a very low-cost and safe storage space, and Repauno is becoming a competitor to Marcus Hook, which has no more capacity and is owned by Energy Transfer (ET) and is just across the Delaware River. Whether or not the company will invest the capital to build out the caverns itself or look to sell the entire business remains to be seen. At the end of August, when speaking at the Three Part Advisors Conference, management said, “I think one way or the other, that asset is going to be gone.” As I’ve been saying, management has talked about plans to pivot to a pure-play short-line and regional rail company. There’s no way the broader investing public knows about this “plan” yet, so I’d like to hear a lot more about it on the upcoming conference call. The report comes out next Thursday, October 30, with a conference call to follow Friday morning at 8:00 AM ET. BUY

Confirmed Earnings Date: October 30

Genius Sports (GENI) is our latest pick and will report a week from next Tuesday. It is a U.K.-based sports data and technology company that operates in a duopoly industry with Sportstradar (SRAD). Both stocks fell back earlier in October on concerns that the Online Sports Betting (OSB) players (some of SRAD and GENI’s customers) won’t have the regulatory protection they were expected to have and that prediction market operators, like Kalshi and Polymarket, could “swoop in” and grab market share with sports betting. Since then, DraftKings (DKNG) has acquired a prediction market company, Railbird, and the NHL reached licensing agreements with prediction-market startups Kalshi and Polymarket. With a lot of moving pieces in the industry, the big question is: Will this disrupt Genius and Sportradar’s businesses? I don’t think so, and it may be a net positive. Management at Genius has been quiet lately, but in recent meetings with J.P. Morgan analysts, Sportsradar says it sees more opportunity than not with prediction markets. There are three potential scenarios: (1) The prediction market players will be shut down, which means no change to the status quo from a few months ago, (2) they will be legalized, which means SRAD and GENI can sell them data and products, which is good, or (3) they will be able to keep operating, which SRAD (and in my view by extension, GENI) thinks will have limited impact on its business. I believe information from this meeting is why shares of both SRAD and GENI have been stable for the last couple of weeks. BUY HALF

Confirmed Earnings Date: November 4

Hannan Metals (HANNF, HAN.CA) is a bit of a rarity in the gold space, given that the stock is trading higher than it was a week ago. It’s an exploration-stage company, so it’s not going to move so much on gold price movements as on drilling results. Without a lot of positive drilling news lately, that has held shares back, but it’s very early in the exploration of the company’s Peruvian assets. Two weeks ago, management put out a press release saying sampling has found potential for multiple mineralization systems around the existing high-grade Previsto Central footprint. While far from confirmed, the hope is that there is a much larger system in this area of the Valiente district. A team has collected the information needed to submit to Peru’s regulatory bodies for a DIA, which is the main environmental certification required for low-impact mineral exploration. Management expects to start drilling at Previsto in 2026. BUY

Natural Grocers (NGVC) stock has been chipping higher over the last week. Northcoast Research just initiated research on the stock with a buy rating and price target of 54, which is roughly 35% above where the stock currently trades. This “should” help shares and, while I haven’t seen the research note, I suspect part of the bullish outlook relates to the expected pace of new store openings, which should accelerate in 2026 with six to eight stores planned. BUY HALF

Projected Earnings Date: November 13

Perpetua Resources (PPTA) has been on a wild ride lately, as have most gold stocks. At the time of last week’s update, our paper gain stood at 157%, up nicely from 125% the previous Thursday. Today it’s back to around 120%, meaning we “lost” a week. In hindsight, gold and gold stocks were clearly overbought. If I didn’t want to stay in the stock through at least the beginning phases of construction at Stibnite, I would have considered selling, but I think there’s a lot more value to be found here once development of the resource has progressed. On that note, management said it just broke ground. I’m not sure if that means they dipped a shovel and walked away or what exactly – the press release didn’t get into details. I suspect that the promise of 450K ounces of gold produced annually in the first four years, plus the antimony supply, will keep investors engaged. The next really big catalyst should come when full project financing is in place. That should come from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, hopefully next spring. BUY HALF

Xometry (XMTR) will release Q3 results a week from next Tuesday. Following last week’s release of a new mobile app version of the company’s Workcenter platform, this week Xometry introduced auto-quotes for injection molding services in the U.S. The launch followed a successful introduction of the service in Europe earlier in the year. BUY HALF

Confirmed Earnings Date: November 4

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