Issues
Led higher by major tech stocks (and especially AAPL), the Nasdaq gained nearly 4% last week, closing at a new record high. Less impressive were the other leading indexes, though their gains were very positive as well, as the S&P 500 added 2.4%, while the Dow rallied 1.3%.
The big-cap indexes remain in an uptrend, but it’s still a tricky and narrow environment, with just about every other index making no progress (net-net) for the past few weeks while they test their key 50-day moving averages. That means the intermediate-term trend is on the fence, which is obviously something that bears watching. On the positive side of the ledger, though, we’re still encouraged by what we’re seeing during earnings season, with many signs of strength from growth-y titles. All in all, we’re sticking with the stance we’ve been in—our Market Monitor remains at a level 7.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with strength seen in a variety of sectors. Our Top Pick just broke out of a beautiful launching pad after earnings, with some others in the general group also doing well.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with strength seen in a variety of sectors. Our Top Pick just broke out of a beautiful launching pad after earnings, with some others in the general group also doing well.
The major indexes continue to march higher, but trouble is brewing under the surface. That’s been reflected by the number of earnings blowups of late, including in many stocks of companies that beat estimates. Our portfolio was not immune to that phenomenon last week, and as a result, we’re doing some late-summer housecleaning this week, selling four positions that have been lagging and got worse after reporting earnings. Meanwhile, with technology stocks becoming a bit overcooked, today we add to our portfolio a manufacturing name that makes essential real-world products that are always in high demand. It’s a stock whose shares have been building momentum – enough to attract the attention of Cabot Top Ten Trader Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Led higher by major tech stocks (and especially AAPL) the Nasdaq gained nearly 4% last week, closing at a new record high. Less impressive were the other leading indexes, though their gains were very positive as well as the S&P 500 added 2.4%, while the Dow rallied 1.3%.
Led higher by major tech stocks (and especially AAPL) the Nasdaq gained nearly 4% last week, closing at a new record high. Less impressive were the other leading indexes, though their gains were very positive as well as the S&P 500 added 2.4%, while the Dow rallied 1.3%.
The big-cap indexes remain generally resilient, but under the hood, the market continues to thin out, with fewer names participating in the rally. To be fair, we are seeing more growth titles either emerge or set up nicely after earnings, and of course, the market’s big-picture outlook remains favorable. But we’re comfortable staying relatively close to shore for now as the broad market decides which way to go. We’ve made a flurry of moves in the past couple of weeks and have one small buy today, but we’re holding a good chunk of cash as we look to see if growth stocks can get moving en masse.
Today’s addition is one of the world’s best engineering and construction firms in the highly specialized natural gas-fired power plant industry.
It’s a highly leveraged play on increasing U.S. energy loads and the expected, multi-year gas power plant buildout. If you want exposure to a picks and shovels play on AI, EVs and other electrification trends, this one is for you.
Enjoy!
It’s a highly leveraged play on increasing U.S. energy loads and the expected, multi-year gas power plant buildout. If you want exposure to a picks and shovels play on AI, EVs and other electrification trends, this one is for you.
Enjoy!
A sizzling summer for stocks has delivered some strong returns for investors, though not all sectors have enjoyed the ride. In fact, seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have underperformed the benchmark index’s 8% return so far this year. As a result, there’s plenty of value still out there. So today, we set our sights on of those underperforming sectors: consumer staples. While the sector hasn’t trailed the market as much as a few others, we’ve found a usually steady, reliable stock that just touched five-year lows despite reporting record sales. The company dates back to the 1800s, and is a brand everyone knows – and has likely been in your house, your parents’ house, your grandparents’ house and your great-grandparents’ house. And now it’s on sale.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Despite big earnings from leading tech stocks, the good times came to an end last week for the market as the leading indexes fell all five days. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.4%, the Dow declined by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.2% … though the indexes bounced back nicely on Monday.
The big-picture market outlook remains very bullish in our view, but there’s no question we’re seeing more potholes, with more stocks and sectors chopping sideways in recent weeks—and then, last week, we saw sellers step up. Of course, today’s bounce was encouraging, but the odds of a volatile rest period are growing given the prior extended run. Right here, we’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7, though we’re mostly taking things on a stock-by-stock basis.
The best news from the last week came from earnings season, where there were a large number of positive earnings reactions among names with solid stories and numbers. Our Top Pick is a well-run company, and now growth is strong as AI demand ramps.
The best news from the last week came from earnings season, where there were a large number of positive earnings reactions among names with solid stories and numbers. Our Top Pick is a well-run company, and now growth is strong as AI demand ramps.
For a second straight year, an eye-poppingly bad July jobs report sent stocks tumbling. Last year, the selling lasted a few weeks, taking the S&P 500 down 8% and the Nasdaq down more than 13%. Is a similar correction in store this time around? This week will likely give us the answer. So far, however, it’s just one bad day, so we’ll keep our foot on the gas pedal by adding a high-growth semiconductor stock that is starting to show signs of life after a rough start to the year. It’s a new recommendation from Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Despite big earnings from leading tech stocks, the good times came to an end last week for the market as the leading indexes fell all five days. For the week the S&P 500 lost 2.4%, the Dow declined by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%.
Updates
There have been plenty of market meltdowns over the years. Few have matched what’s happened since last Wednesday evening – so-called “Liberation Day” – when President Trump announced plans to place high tariffs on … the rest of the world. In the week that followed, stocks nose-dived by 13%, with both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 swinging to a bear market last Thursday and Friday and the S&P 500 nearly following suit.
Until yesterday.
Until yesterday.
It’s time to buy stocks more aggressively.
That’s the case for stocks in general, but also cannabis stocks. Most cannabis companies aren’t really affected by tariffs. But their stocks have been hit recently by the shift to “risk-off” mode among investors.
That’s the case for stocks in general, but also cannabis stocks. Most cannabis companies aren’t really affected by tariffs. But their stocks have been hit recently by the shift to “risk-off” mode among investors.
It’s a disaster. There was a range of possibilities with the tariffs. The market’s worst fears came to fruition and the S&P crashed more than 5% on consecutive days for the first time since the onset of the pandemic.
Last week the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on just about every nation that trades with the U.S. The tariffs were widespread and severe in many cases. That wasn’t what the market wanted. The S&P is now within a whisker of an official bear market (down 20% from the high on a closing basis). The technology-laden Nasdaq is already there.
Last week the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on just about every nation that trades with the U.S. The tariffs were widespread and severe in many cases. That wasn’t what the market wanted. The S&P is now within a whisker of an official bear market (down 20% from the high on a closing basis). The technology-laden Nasdaq is already there.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alcoa (AA), Atlassian (TEAM), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and Starbucks (SBUX).
Gold miner Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is well positioned in the ongoing tariff war to benefit from increasing safe-haven gold demand.
Gold miner Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is well positioned in the ongoing tariff war to benefit from increasing safe-haven gold demand.
In a tough week for markets, Explorer stocks held their own. Banco Santander (SAN) shares are up 50% so far in 2025, significantly outperforming bank and European indexes. Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) was up 10% this week and Sea Limited (SE) shares have risen 25% rise so far this year. All our dominating stocks held firm this week.
It was interesting to be in Tokyo and meeting for lunch today with a former Japan Ministry of Finance official as new tariffs of 24% on Japan were announced.
It was interesting to be in Tokyo and meeting for lunch today with a former Japan Ministry of Finance official as new tariffs of 24% on Japan were announced.
It started off as an ugly week for the market. But things have gotten better. Stocks flirted with the recent low on Monday but held strong and recovered. That’s a good sign. But is it enough?
Big tariff news is on the doorstep. Uncertainty abounds. It is unclear yet how many countries will be included in the reciprocal tariffs scheduled to take effect today and to what extent there will be exceptions. The market may be happier about things by the end of the week. But if it isn’t, stocks might go lower again.
Big tariff news is on the doorstep. Uncertainty abounds. It is unclear yet how many countries will be included in the reciprocal tariffs scheduled to take effect today and to what extent there will be exceptions. The market may be happier about things by the end of the week. But if it isn’t, stocks might go lower again.
It’s ugly again. The market recovered from the 10% correction bottom earlier this month. But it plunged again below the earlier low on Monday as tariff issues have taken center stage.
Hopefully, stocks will bounce off the low again, but it isn’t looking good right now. The tariff deadline is this week, and uncertainties abound. It is yet unclear how many countries will be included in the reciprocal tariffs and to what extent there will be exceptions. The market may be happier about things by the end of the week. But if it isn’t, stocks will likely go lower.
Hopefully, stocks will bounce off the low again, but it isn’t looking good right now. The tariff deadline is this week, and uncertainties abound. It is yet unclear how many countries will be included in the reciprocal tariffs and to what extent there will be exceptions. The market may be happier about things by the end of the week. But if it isn’t, stocks will likely go lower.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including GE Aerospace (GE), Paramount Global (PARA), SLB Ltd. (SLB), Starbucks (SBUX) and UiPath (PATH).
This month’s catalyst report features a mixed bag of longer-term attractive turnaround candidates in industries ranging from car rentals to dental equipment to semiconductors.
This month’s catalyst report features a mixed bag of longer-term attractive turnaround candidates in industries ranging from car rentals to dental equipment to semiconductors.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain defensive. The market has gotten off its duff somewhat this week, but as seen the past couple of weeks, there’s still plenty of selling and news-driven action out there. We do think it’s possible a repair process has begun, but right now, the trends of the major indexes and most stocks are pointed down, so we continue to advise a defensive stance. We’ll again stand pat tonight with our four small-ish positions and our big cash position, though we’ll be on the horn if we have any changes (including possibly re-jiggering the portfolio a bit) in the days ahead.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index is flat over the last week.
The upside move from the extreme oversold conditions that began two weeks ago has faded as the market grapples with tariff uncertainty.
Uncertainty will continue to linger even though Trump clarified part of his tariff plan last night through an executive order imposing permanent tariffs on autos not produced in the U.S.
The upside move from the extreme oversold conditions that began two weeks ago has faded as the market grapples with tariff uncertainty.
Uncertainty will continue to linger even though Trump clarified part of his tariff plan last night through an executive order imposing permanent tariffs on autos not produced in the U.S.
The last two months have felt historically volatile.
Since Donald Trump took office for a second time and immediately started handing out tariffs like they were surprise take-home prizes at an Oprah taping (“YOU get a tariff, and YOU get a tariff!”), the market has been unsettled. And indeed, from mid-February through mid-March, things weren’t simply unsettled – they were bad. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq entered correction territory – the fifth-fastest correction in the last 75 years, in the case of the S&P. Fears of higher inflation and possibly recession have come rushing back to the surface, consumer confidence is at a 12-year low, and interest rate angst is back in full force.
And yet, actual volatility – as measured by the VIX, a.k.a. the “investor fear gauge” – has been … fairly muted?
Since Donald Trump took office for a second time and immediately started handing out tariffs like they were surprise take-home prizes at an Oprah taping (“YOU get a tariff, and YOU get a tariff!”), the market has been unsettled. And indeed, from mid-February through mid-March, things weren’t simply unsettled – they were bad. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq entered correction territory – the fifth-fastest correction in the last 75 years, in the case of the S&P. Fears of higher inflation and possibly recession have come rushing back to the surface, consumer confidence is at a 12-year low, and interest rate angst is back in full force.
And yet, actual volatility – as measured by the VIX, a.k.a. the “investor fear gauge” – has been … fairly muted?
The market has been recovering since it fell into correction territory earlier this month. The S&P was up for the week last week for the first time in a month and Monday was a strong day. But we might not be out of the woods yet.
Even if the bottom is in (which it might not be), it is unlikely that stocks can generate lasting upside traction until there is more clarity on the tariff situation. But the market really hasn’t been as bad as it might seem.
Even if the bottom is in (which it might not be), it is unlikely that stocks can generate lasting upside traction until there is more clarity on the tariff situation. But the market really hasn’t been as bad as it might seem.
Alerts
Sell Veralto (VLTO); Note on Rivian (RIVN); AST Spacemobile (ASTS) Taking off
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
Shares of Zeta (ZETA) are up about 5% this morning after the company announced it will acquire LiveIntent, a people-based marketing technology company founded in 2009.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.