Issues
Stocks finally took on some water last week, though the damage was minimal. Under the surface, there are a few more cracks, with the number of stocks hitting 52-week lows on the rise. Still, there’s no cause for concern yet. Just in case there is a more extended pullback in the offing, however, today we add a “boring” insurance play, but one that pays a high dividend and whose share price has been on steady uptick for the last couple months. It’s a recommendation from Tom Hutchinson to his Cabot Dividend Investor readers.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The story of last week was under-the-surface weakness in growth stocks, while money rotated into “everything else.” And by week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 0.3%, the Dow fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.7%.
The story of last week was under-the-surface weakness in growth stocks, while money rotated into “everything else.” And by week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 0.3%, the Dow fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.7%.
To begin, I would like to highlight that I have decided to omit the brief company review section that followed our weekly stock updates. This section caused some confusion and the information about each company is widely available. Likewise, I’m ending the Explorer watch list. If you own the stocks on the list right now, I see no reason to sell them.
Moving on to the market, the debates regarding the market’s direction seem endless.
Moving on to the market, the debates regarding the market’s direction seem endless.
While investor-friendly cannabis reform marches ahead at the state level, it’s still a “wait and see” game in Washington, D.C.
Rescheduling by the Trump administration remains the big potential near-term federal catalyst. If it happens, it will be a “sell the news” event for at least part of your cannabis exposure over the subsequent two or three trading days, for these reasons:
Rescheduling by the Trump administration remains the big potential near-term federal catalyst. If it happens, it will be a “sell the news” event for at least part of your cannabis exposure over the subsequent two or three trading days, for these reasons:
My modus operandi when writing the monthly version of the Cabot Turnaround Letter is to focus solely on a single stock when making a purchase recommendation. And in keeping with that spirit, I’ll be doing the same in this month’s edition of the newsletter. But I will also highlight two additional stocks with what I see as having excellent mid-to-long-term turnaround potential.
The market looks great. But the indexes are teetering around the highs while uncertainty is still swirling around.
Fortunately, some of the highest dividend paying stocks are still reasonably priced ahead of an increasingly promising future. Midstream energy stocks have been flying under the radar while paying some of the highest dividends on the market. These stocks are also well suited for whatever lies ahead.
Midstream energy stocks have provided a high income and a solid return throughout most market cycles. And that makes them ideal for the current unpredictable environment. But that was before. Things are changing for the better. The environment for energy is undergoing a radical transformation that could make these stocks better than ever before.
The growing demand from utilities and exporters will provide an unprecedented runway for growth in the years ahead that historical performance doesn’t reflect. In this issue, I highlight one of the very best midstream energy companies on the market.
Fortunately, some of the highest dividend paying stocks are still reasonably priced ahead of an increasingly promising future. Midstream energy stocks have been flying under the radar while paying some of the highest dividends on the market. These stocks are also well suited for whatever lies ahead.
Midstream energy stocks have provided a high income and a solid return throughout most market cycles. And that makes them ideal for the current unpredictable environment. But that was before. Things are changing for the better. The environment for energy is undergoing a radical transformation that could make these stocks better than ever before.
The growing demand from utilities and exporters will provide an unprecedented runway for growth in the years ahead that historical performance doesn’t reflect. In this issue, I highlight one of the very best midstream energy companies on the market.
Before we dive into this week’s idea, I do want to note that our September IBKR, GLW and RKT covered calls finished in-the-money which means we walked away from those trades with our full profits, and no longer own a stock or option position in these stocks.
It was another solid week for the market, with a bit more leadership emerging on the upside, with some medicals and online outfits joining the AI infrastructure group and a smattering of other names—though we’re still seeing plenty of choppy (selling on strength) action, too. Near term, we do think risk is a bit elevated, partly due to the recent run, partly due to the calendar and partly due to some near-term complacency—that said, when it comes to the intermediate-term (and longer-term) evidence, it remains much more positive than negative, so we’re not making any grand adjustments here. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7.
This week’s list is another well-rounded one, with some fresher breakouts and setups from a variety of sectors. Our Top Pick is a well-run firm that has lifted off powerfully from a two-month rest period. Try to enter on dips of a few points.
This week’s list is another well-rounded one, with some fresher breakouts and setups from a variety of sectors. Our Top Pick is a well-run firm that has lifted off powerfully from a two-month rest period. Try to enter on dips of a few points.
Fed Week has come and gone, and Jerome Powell and company did just what investors expected them to do, nudging stocks further into record territory. How long the market can keep this up, at least in the short term, is anyone’s guess. But we can only go with the evidence in front of us, and right now it’s a good time to buy. So today, we add another big growth name that has emerged as a leader of the recent rally. It’s a stock that has stood out enough to gain approval from both Mike Cintolo and Tyler Laundon.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The stock market rallied nicely into the Federal Reserve meeting, and then tacked on even more gains following it, and by week’s end the S&P 500 had risen 1.2%, the Dow had rallied 1%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.2%.
The stock market rallied nicely into the Federal Reserve meeting, and then tacked on even more gains following it, and by week’s end the S&P 500 had risen 1.2%, the Dow had rallied 1%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.2%.
Updates
The S&P 500 and other major indexes finished up yesterday after slightly negative first-quarter economic growth. Not much movement in Explorer stocks this week except Sea Limited (SE), up 11%.
Chinese exports have recently plunged as the psychology of tariffs takes a toll. China relied on exports for about a third of its economic growth last year.
Chinese exports have recently plunged as the psychology of tariffs takes a toll. China relied on exports for about a third of its economic growth last year.
What a difference a week makes. Just a week ago, the S&P was plunging back toward the low. But then the S&P rallied 4.5% and the Nasdaq soared 6.6% in the final four days of last week, erasing most of the index’s April losses.
This is a huge week for earnings and economic news. Maybe, just maybe, the market will be driven by something other than tariff news.
This week, 180 of the 500 S&P companies report earnings, including several of the big tech companies. On Wednesday, first-quarter GDP will be released. Jobs and inflation reports also come out this week. The consensus expectation for first-quarter GDP is 0.10%, way down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.
This week, 180 of the 500 S&P companies report earnings, including several of the big tech companies. On Wednesday, first-quarter GDP will be released. Jobs and inflation reports also come out this week. The consensus expectation for first-quarter GDP is 0.10%, way down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC), Paramount Global (PARA), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and UiPath (PATH).
Centuri Holdings (CTRI) remains a strong performer in light of the tariff backdrop and thanks also to recent award wins.
Centuri Holdings (CTRI) remains a strong performer in light of the tariff backdrop and thanks also to recent award wins.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Start to slowly come off the sideline. Our Cabot Trend Lines and Cabot Tides remain negative, and most stocks are still south of key moving averages, so we’re remaining overall defensive—but today our Three Day Thrust indicator flashed, and while that doesn’t preclude some near-term volatility, it does hint that a bottom could be in and a good-sized rally will evolve down the road. That’s not a reason to buy willy-nilly, but given our monstrous cash hoard, we are slowly coming off the sidelines with two new small buys, adding half-sized stakes in Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) and Penumbra (PEN). Our cash position will still be around 75% after these buys; as always, we’ll follow the market from here in terms of more new buys—or backing off.
The Trump administration’s apparent effort to de-escalate its tariff war with China has been meet with statements from Chinese officials saying there are no ongoing trade talks with the U.S. and that all pronouncements of progress in negotiation are groundless.
Still, the market has begun to factor in a “less bad” outcome than was being contemplated last week.
It has helped significantly that Trump backed away from what seemed like a very clear desire to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which caused another spike in market panic last week.
Still, the market has begun to factor in a “less bad” outcome than was being contemplated last week.
It has helped significantly that Trump backed away from what seemed like a very clear desire to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which caused another spike in market panic last week.
The market took a turn for the better this week as President Trump backed off his criticisms of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and indicated there may be some wiggle room on his sky-high tariffs on China. Those served as a sigh of relief for investors, and stocks surged on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the S&P 500 is only up about 1% since we last wrote.
Stocks are still below their April highs, and down more than 8.5% year to date, but volatility is declining and it seems increasingly possible that a bottom was formed in early April.
Stocks are still below their April highs, and down more than 8.5% year to date, but volatility is declining and it seems increasingly possible that a bottom was formed in early April.
The wild ride continues. After a crazy first few weeks of April, this week has continued in the same vein, with a big down day on Monday and a big up day on Tuesday. This might last a while longer.
It’s been a tough market. The S&P started this week down about 6% for the month of April, over 10% YTD, and over 14% from the high. And that was before Monday’s selloff. It is entirely possible that the market falls back to a new low and an official bear market.
It’s been a tough market. The S&P started this week down about 6% for the month of April, over 10% YTD, and over 14% from the high. And that was before Monday’s selloff. It is entirely possible that the market falls back to a new low and an official bear market.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alcoa (AA), Kenvue (KVUE), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) and Toast (TOST).
Precious metals miners Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) continue to lead the portfolio after making yet another series of new highs this week.
Precious metals miners Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) continue to lead the portfolio after making yet another series of new highs this week.
The big macro development of the week is that the Fed is in no rush to rescue the market or the economy.
Speaking yesterday at the Economic Club of Chicago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded a hawkish tune. While he acknowledged that the level of tariff increases announced on Liberation Day is much higher that what was expected, and will likely lead to higher inflation and slower growth (i.e. the dreaded stagflation), he said the Fed is well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to policy.
Speaking yesterday at the Economic Club of Chicago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded a hawkish tune. While he acknowledged that the level of tariff increases announced on Liberation Day is much higher that what was expected, and will likely lead to higher inflation and slower growth (i.e. the dreaded stagflation), he said the Fed is well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to policy.
As markets weigh tariff and trade risks, we will continue our efforts to protect assets through portfolio rebalancing while remaining alert to trading opportunities. Our diversified and global Explorer stocks are doing well.
International investors will be important at the margin since they account for 18% of U.S. stock ownership.
The retreat of the U.S. dollar, down 10% in the last six months, and the emerging premium for U.S. bond markets is leading to higher yields (interest rates).
International investors will be important at the margin since they account for 18% of U.S. stock ownership.
The retreat of the U.S. dollar, down 10% in the last six months, and the emerging premium for U.S. bond markets is leading to higher yields (interest rates).
Regardless of your politics, “calm” is not a word you would likely use to describe the stock market under President Trump, at least through the first three months of his second term. But given the extreme tariff-fueled volatility that pervaded this time a week ago, that’s exactly how the last week has felt for investors: calm.
Alerts
We went into the TransMedics (TMDX) Q3 earnings report yesterday afternoon with a quarter of our original position and lingering questions about the underlying trends in the business.
Sell Veralto (VLTO); Note on Rivian (RIVN); AST Spacemobile (ASTS) Taking off
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
Shares of Zeta (ZETA) are up about 5% this morning after the company announced it will acquire LiveIntent, a people-based marketing technology company founded in 2009.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.