July 2, 2025
Strong Options in FCX, HOOD and UBER
In early trade this morning, option activity is very bullish in three of our stocks. Let’s dive in …
As I’ve written in the past, copper plays can get red hot very quickly, and that has been the case the last week as copper is flying higher, and with it so is Freeport McMoRan (FCX) stock, and option activity in the stock including these trades today, and for the last week:
Today - Buyer of 1,900 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) July 48 Calls for $0.51 – Stock at 45.5 (rolled from July 45 calls)
Today - Buyer of 2,500 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) September 55 Calls for $0.80 – Stock at 46.5
Last week - Buyer of 5,000 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) November 47 Calls for $3 – Stock at 44
Buyer of 8,000 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) December 60 Calls for $0.64 – Stock at 44
Buyer of 8,500 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) December 60 Calls for $0.58 – Stock at 43.5
If we didn’t already own FCX, it would be the top of my watchlist for a new buy … but luckily (at least for now) we already own calls in the stock that is breaking out to a recent high today.
Next up is Robinhood (HOOD), which continues to go wild to the upside as the stock makes a run at new all-time highs (trading at 99.5 this morning). Here is even more call buying today:
Buyer of 10,000 Robinhood (HOOD) July 100 Calls for $5 – Stock at 97
Buyer of 4,000 Robinhood (HOOD) July 88 Calls (exp. 7/11) for $9.25 – Stock at 95
There isn’t a hotter stock in the market right now than HOOD … hopefully this continues.
And finally, I continue to think Uber (UBER) is setting up for a run at 100, as the stock is trading well and option activity, which was strong last week, continues to be so this week, including these trades this morning:
Buyer of 3,500 Uber (UBER) July 95 Calls for $2.05 – Stock at 93.5
Buyer of 4,000 Uber (UBER) August 100 Calls for $3.30 – Stock at 93.75
Finally, as a reminder, the stock market will close at 1:00 Eastern on Thursday and is closed on Friday, and things might get slow in the market ahead of the holiday. Though of note, I will be working all day today and through the close of trade tomorrow if you have any questions.
July 1, 2025
Trade Follow-Up (CSX)
Please note that shortly after my trade alert to sell a third of our CSX January 32.5 calls was sent, the stock pulled back $0.20-$0.30. Because of this stock slide, I was not filled on my order. Here is how I am going to handle the situation …
My order to sell at $3.30 will remain in the market until the close of the day. However, if I’m not filled by 4:00 Eastern, that order will cancel, and then I will re-evaluate the trade tomorrow and in the days to come.
Stepping back, hopefully the stock rallies back to its early highs (33.80) later this afternoon and we/you are filled on our sale.
June 30, 2025
Position Update – HOOD
Robinhood (HOOD) is trading higher by ANOTHER $10 today and is out to a new all-time high at 92.5. And into this dramatic move higher, call buying is once again aggressively bullish.
At current levels, our December 50 calls that were originally purchased for $10.98 are now worth $46, or a potential profit of approximately 320%.
I am going to continue to hold my position as is, though if you would like to ring the register on a couple calls, that is a fine choice as well.
June 30, 2025
Weekly Update
After a weekend that many feared would sink the market as the Middle East situation was flaring up, to the surprise of many, the market didn’t sell off and in fact by week’s end the S&P 500 had gained 3.4%, the Dow had rallied 3.8% and the Nasdaq added 4.2%.
Stocks on Watch
After weeks of chopping around, many of the stocks on my watchlist have finally emerged from their sideways action.
For example, CPNG was stuck between 28-29 since May, but late last week the stock finally broke out of this maddening range and closed the week at 31. And into this rally a trader rolled these calls:
Tuesday - Buyer of 12,000 Coupang (CPNG) September 30 Calls for $1.59 – Stock at 29 (rolled from August calls).
I like the look of CPNG quite a bit and call buying was very bullish all last week.
NVDA has been a bit wilder than CPNG, but in reality, the stock hadn’t made any progress since earnings in late May. However, last week the stock broke out to a new high and attracted a bunch of call buying activity looking for a move higher in the shorter and longer term, including these trades:
Tuesday - Buyer of 33,000 Nvidia (NVDA) July 146 Calls for $5.50 – Stock at 147 (rolled from July 120 calls)
Tuesday - Buyer of 6,000 Nvidia (NVDA) October 150 Calls for $12.70 – Stock at 147
Tuesday - Buyer of 8,500 Nvidia (NVDA) March 175 Calls for $12.50 – Stock at 147.
I do like the look of NVDA now that the stock has broken out of its somewhat maddening range, and furthermore, as noted by a Loop Capital analyst last week, the stock could have a lot more room to run:
“Reiterating our Buy rating and increasing our price target to 250 from 175 as our work strongly suggests that ‘the math just works,’ as fantastic as that may sound. Gen AI Demand Is SO Much LARGER Than You Think.”
Volatility
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) closed the week at 16.3, or a fall of more than 20% as the situation in the Middle East has seemingly cooled off (at least for now). Of note, with the market closing at 1 eastern on Thursday through the weekend in celebration of the Fourth of July I would not expect the VIX to rise much this week unless something unexpected hits the market.
Option Order Flow was somewhat bullish this past week as my Options Barometer came in at:
Monday – 5
Tuesday – 7
Wednesday – 5
Thursday - 6
Friday – 5
Events for the Week to Come
As noted above, the stock market will close this Thursday at 1 eastern through the weekend in celebration of Fourth of July.
In terms of market-moving events, it should be a quiet week with Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking on Tuesday morning and the June Jobs Report on Thursday as the only two known catalysts.
On the earnings front this is the slowest week of the year, as Constellation Brands (STZ) is the only somewhat interesting earnings report for the week:
Open Positions
Cisco (CSCO) January 67.5 Calls – CSCO is the newest addition to the portfolio after weeks of steady gains for the stock even as the market mostly chopped around. I don’t expect CSCO stock will double overnight, but this feels like a “safe” play in a strengthening market.
CSX (CSX) January 32.5 Calls – CSX closed at a new 52-week high on Friday and looks terrific as the market’s advance widens out. I really like our call position if the market continues to strengthen.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) November 43 Calls – FCX broke out to a new high late last week as the price of copper soared. And into this move higher in copper FCX call buyers aggressively positioned for higher prices to come, including these trades:
Friday - Buyer of 5,000 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) November 47 Calls for $3 – Stock at 44
Friday - Buyer of 8,000 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) December 60 Calls for $0.64 – Stock at 44
Thursday - Buyer of 8,500 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) December 60 Calls for $0.58 – Stock at 43.5.
Grab Holdings (GRAB) January 5 Calls (exp. 2027) – After looking somewhat suspect last week GRAB got back in gear on Friday and into that move back near 5.00 traders aggressively bought calls including this trade:
Friday - Buyer of 25,000 Grab (GRAB) July 5 Calls for $0.20 – Stock at 4.90.
Robinhood (HOOD) December 50 Calls – HOOD gained another 7% last week and looks spectacular. And into this rally traders continued to buy upside calls including these trades:
Wednesday - Buyer of 3,000 Robinhood (HOOD) January 115 Calls for $8.50 – Stock at 85
Tuesday - Buyer of 3,500 Robinhood (HOOD) July 95 Calls for $0.90 – Stock at 80.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) December 590 Puts – Our hedge is off to a somewhat bad start as the market soared higher last week. That is bad for this postilion, but good for our many bullish trades. And on that note, I will continue to hold this bearish trade so that I can continue to add even more bullish exposure should the market strengthen.
Starbucks (SBUX) January 110 Calls – SBUX was the lone stock in the portfolio that didn’t show real signs of life last week. This position continues to frustrate me, and should probably be sold … however, there is still so much time until January expiration.
Uber (UBER) December 90 Calls – UBER gained 10% last week and as I noted earlier in the week traders aggressively bought calls looking for more gains to come, including these trades:
Buyer of 6,000 Uber (UBER) July 92 Calls for $2 – Stock at 89
Buyer of 23,000 Uber (UBER) July 100 Calls for $0.93 – Stock at 92
Buyer of 6,000 Uber (UBER) August 95 Calls for $3.30 – Stock at 89.5
Buyer of 21,00 Uber (UBER) August 100 Calls for $2.10 – Stock at 89.5.
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