After an ugly day October 10, the major indexes showed solid overall support last week, but under the hood was another round of volatile action, The market’s intermediate-term trend continues to tilt up, though we’re still taking things on a stock-by-stock basis and are closely watching earnings season, which is about to rev up. In the meantime, we’re just following the plan that’s been working for us: Being selective on the buy side, holding strong names (albeit with some partial profits on the way up) and also raising stops as time passes. We’ll again stick with a level 7 on the Market Monitor.

This week’s list is a mixed bag in terms of sectors and setups, with some we’re considering entering on strength and others on pullbacks. Our Top Pick is likely in for years of accelerating growth, and after a big run into early October, the recent pullback looks normal. We’re OK starting small here or on a bit more weakness.

Stocks proved their resilience once again, shaking off the U.S.-China tariff re-escalation fears and creeping back toward their early-October highs. An encouraging start to third-quarter earnings season helped, but that was mostly the banks. The real test will come in the next couple weeks, when most of the big tech companies report. So it’s still choppy waters out there. With that in mind, today we add another fairly low-risk play to the Stock of the Week portfolio in the form of a healthcare REIT that offers a decent yield. It’s a stock Tom Hutchinson just recommended to his Cabot Dividend Investor audience.

Details inside.

Coming off a nasty close for the market the previous week, the indexes rebounded this last week as the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Dow added 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rallied 2.1%.

Coming off a nasty close for the market the previous week, the indexes rebounded this last week as the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Dow added 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rallied 2.1%.

The market is taken another shot across its bow, with the indexes bending, with many leaders getting dented and with our Two-Second Indicator still negative. That said, while bending, things haven’t broken, with our Cabot Tides still positive and most leaders refusing to crack. We’re not complacent, as we’re holding our 30% in cash and placing three stocks on Hold--but we’re also not running for the storm cellar, as earnings season is likely to determine the next big move in the market and leaders.

The market has hit a little turbulence as we wade into the early innings of the Q3 earnings season. But despite the bumps, there are more than enough stocks acting well enough to fill the pages of the October Issue.

This month, I continue to spread things around, exploring new ideas from the Fintech, software and coal (yes, coal!) industries while plucking two steady performers from our Watch List to add to the portfolio.

Enjoy!

What started as a good week for the bulls was quickly vanquished by renewed U.S./China trade fears last week. How long these worries will again weigh on the market is anyone’s guess. However, Friday’s ugly selloff was enough to send the S&P 500 lower by 2.4% on the week, while the Dow fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%. Monday’s encouraging bounce-back erased some of those gains, however. We’ll see where it goes from here.

There have been a few shots across the bow in recent weeks, and last week was another, with Friday’s big selloff hitting just about everything, though today’s bounce took some sting out of that. Overall, after six months with hardly any pullbacks, the market could easily be ready for a “real” correction—however, anticipating such a decline isn’t advised. Don’t get us wrong, our antennae are up and we continue to advise being selective, but we’re mostly focused on the next few days: A strong bounce in leaders and the indexes would be positive, but a break of last week’s lows would likely usher in a volatile, corrective period. For now, with most of the evidence unchanged, our Market Monitor remains at a Level 7.

This week’s list has something for everyone, though it’s again full of more growth-y titles. Our Top Pick is part of a newly strong group, and whose stock actually rebounded to a new high today.

Stocks hit another pothole this week after President Trump re-escalated tariff rhetoric against China last Friday, which genuinely spooked the market for the first time in months. He has since walked back some of those comments, and the market is rebounding in an encouraging way today. But the U.S.-China trade war is definitely back in the news, so today we aim to steer clear of it by adding a new position in something that’s a little outside our normal sandbox: a foreign currency. More specifically, it’s a fund that offers exposure to a well-known European currency, and it’s up more than 12% year to date – with more potential upside ahead. The fund was recently recommended by Carl Delfeld to his Cabot Explorer audience.

Details inside.

What started as a good week for the bulls was quickly vanquished by renewed U.S./China trade fears. How long these worries will again weigh on the market is anyone’s guess. However, Friday’s ugly selloff was enough to send the S&P 500 lower by 2.4% on the week, while the Dow fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%.

What started as a good week for the bulls was quickly vanquished by renewed U.S./China trade fears. How long these worries will again weigh on the market is anyone’s guess. However, Friday’s ugly selloff was enough to send the S&P 500 lower by 2.4% on the week, while the Dow fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%.

The markets don’t seem too swayed by the government shutdown, as they continue to remain near all-time highs.

Economically speaking, we’re not getting some reports, like inflation or unemployment, due to the shutdown. But manufacturing seems to be holding up; real estate prices continue to moderate (up 1.8%); existing home sales were down 0.2%; and consumer confidence dipped a bit. Not much to rattle the markets.

The market just keeps on going. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq made yet another new high on Monday. And that makes me nervous. I guess I’m just not built to receive continuing good news without getting suspicious.

So much for the cranky post-summer investor and the historically rough September. The S&P is up 3.4% for the month so far. It’s also up 13.8% YTD and 38% from the April low. Why not? We’re in a Fed rate-cutting cycle. The AI catalyst is going strong. And the economy is nowhere near recession.

Thursday’s massive rally in Intel (INTC), a Cabot Turnaround Letter portfolio holding, did more than just underline the just-announced $5 billion stake that Nvidia (NVDA) initiated in the company. It also highlighted the degree to which growing federal involvement in tech- and defense-related companies—particularly those used to enable AI and other “mission critical” applications—has been driving the seemingly endless rallies of many leading tech sector stocks.

Investors got the 25bps cut we expected yesterday, and as a little bonus, the Fed’s dot plot indicates potential for two more rate cuts this year. That’s what the CME’s Fed Watch tool is projecting as of mid-morning today as well.

That said, the bond market might not fully believe it. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is trading higher today.

Alibaba (BABA) shares surged 15.5% this week as the company announced that it had completed a roughly $3.2 billion capital raise. Better yet, Baidu (BIDU) shares jumped a stunning 29% in the stock’s first week as an Explorer recommendation.

But could quantum computing be a bigger investment opportunity than artificial intelligence (AI) as the U.S.-China rivalry escalates?

Value stocks have outperformed the market of late, with the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VTV) up 2.9% in the last month vs. a 2.3% return in the S&P 500. Granted, that’s minuscule outperformance, but it’s a sign that investors are starting to look for value with the major indexes at or near all-time highs for the last couple months.

The market is at another new high and looking good. Anticipated Fed rate cuts and a revitalized artificial intelligence trade are driving stocks higher.

It’s Fed Day! And a rate cut is expected. That’s even better than Prince Spaghetti night to Wall Streeters. More than 90% of traders are expecting the first fed funds rate cut in 2025 to be 0.25%. Hopes for a 0.50% cut likely went out the window with the higher-than-expected August CPI number.

Stocks made another new high this week as investors expect a resumption of Fed rate cuts on Wednesday.

The Fed Chairman indicated that the fed funds rate will be cut at the September meeting during his Jackson Hole comments last month. Wall Street traders are pricing in a 90%-plus probability of a 0.25% cut on Wednesday. And consensus expectations are for two more such cuts before the end of this year.

The ultimate “fear gauge” isn’t the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), as financial market pundits often insist. My contention is that it’s actually gold, which arguably is the most historically reliable barometer of how worried the average investor is over various economic, geopolitical and market-related developments.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The top-down, market-wide evidence remains in good shape, and encouragingly, growth stocks have revved up decently over the past week, though the action remains heavily concentrated in AI infrastructure-type names. There are still lots of crosscurrents and many names are hitting the occasional pothole, though, so picking your stocks and spots remains vital. In the Model Portfolio we’re making one new buy—a half-sized stake in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)—while placing MP Materials (MP) on Hold. We could have some other moves in the next few days (including averaging up on names in the portfolio), but tonight we’ll buy ALNY and go from there. Our cash position will be around 43%.

With jobs numbers (and revisions) looking pretty iffy and inflation numbers looking as expected (CPI, today), if not slightly better (PPI, yesterday), the chances of the Fed cutting rates next Wednesday are essentially a lock.

In fact, the only reason the probability of a 25bps cut is only 89% is because the chance of a 50bps cut is 11%!

The market likes this news very much. And so do small caps.

This is, almost certainly, our last update before the Fed starts slashing interest rates for the first time this year. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is now a 100% chance Jerome Powell and company will cut rates by some amount on September 17; 90% think it will be by 25 basis points, another 10% think it will be by 50 basis points, much like last September.

The waiting game continues. President Donald Trump teased cannabis rescheduling in an August 11 press briefing, suggesting it would happen in a few weeks.

A month has passed, but no joy yet for cannabis investors.

While it would make more sense to reschedule closer to the 2026 mid-term elections for greater political impact, media reports once again recently cited Washington, D.C., insiders who say rescheduling will happen soon.

Fill Second Half: Sensient (SXT) and Unity (U)

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

We’re going to make a couple of moves today ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and the publishing of the September Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities.

Sell Dynatrace (DT) and Waystar (WAY)

My August pick, Argan (AGX), has become one of the core ways for small-cap investors to play the AI data center, natural gas power and electrification of everything themes. The company grew revenue by 50% last year. As such, expectations from Argan have been high, despite management’s continued conservativism given the current year growth rate will be slower (around 10%) than last year before ramping up again in FY27.

Shares of Byrna (BYRN) are trading modestly higher this morning after the company released preliminary revenue results for Q3.

If you’re a typical Cabot growth investor, you like to own stocks of fast-growing companies ... the kind that go up fast and come down fast. The ride up with these stocks is wonderful. But the ride down can be shocking. Stocks like these can easily fall 40%, 50% or more in a prolonged market decline, destroying the value of your portfolio.

Using Options to Hedge a Portfolio


A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

I want to clarify a few things about our Hold and Buy ratings.

This guide will help you execute the three types of options strategies recommended in Cabot Options Trader: Buying puts and calls, covered call writing and spreads.

This guide will help you execute the options strategies recommended in Cabot Options Trader.

Guide to Options Trading — Pro Version

Here’s an overview of everything you should know about preferred stocks before adding them to your portfolio.

Changing interest rates affect all income investors, but since they can have a wide variety of effects, figuring out whether changes in rates are going to help you or hurt you can be a complex problem.

These rules are the foundation of the Cabot Market Letter investment philosophy.

These are the six fundamental characteristics that correlated most highly with profits in a 10-year study of stocks bought for the Model Portfolio of the Cabot Growth Investor.

Our instincts warn us that stocks reaching all-time highs are invariably overdue to fall. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. We examine two common scenarios involving stocks that are about to rise—or fall—from new high prices.