The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 SmallCap Index have pulled back from recent highs, but the data suggests they’ll go higher in the weeks ahead.
Bank of America’s seasonality analysis shows November tends to be a strong month for the market. The Russell 2000 is up 70% of the time, with an average gain of 2.64%. Small-cap industrials tend to be particularly strong, up by 6.1% on average, and rising 79% of the time.
Small caps aren’t the only stocks that tend to do well when the weather cools across the country.
When the S&P 500 is showing year-to-date gains through October (as it is this year), it rises 80% of the time in November too, with seven of eleven sectors posting gains.
The first and last weeks of the month tend to be the best.
Looking at the EPS growth projections for the S&P 600 Index today, it’s relatively easy to get on board with an end-of-year small-cap rally. Earnings are expected to grow almost 9% this year and then almost 19% in 2026!
We have a big week of earnings coming up next week, so today’s updates are a little light on details. That will change very soon.
Recent Changes
None
Updates
Argan (AGX) has traded higher this week. Two weeks ago, J.P. Morgan placed Argan on “Positive Catalyst” watch in a research note entitled, “The Hidden Gem(ma) of the AI Trade.” Gemma Power Systems is the name of the company’s subsidiary that gives Argan such a strong position in the U.S. gas power plant market. When Argan reports around December, we should hear about several new power and industrial projects that will push backlog significantly over $2 billion. The company has $572 million in cash and investments, $344 million in net liquidity and no debt. BUY
Projected Earnings Date: December 3
Artivion (AORT) stock continues to act well and has traded to new all-time highs over the last three sessions. Earnings will be out on November 6 (next Thursday). Two weeks ago, management put out a press release highlighting data from AMDS PERSEVERE and AMDS PROTECT trials at the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) Annual Meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark. The data were extremely positive for both the 40 study patients in the PERSEVERE trial (assessment taken at 30 days post-implantation) and the 141 patients in the PROTECT trial (results taken at 3-6 months after implantation). Pending FDA approval of AMDS, we’re expecting Artivion to exercise its option to acquire the technology by the middle of next year. HOLD HALF
Confirmed Earnings Date: November 6
A10 Networks (ATEN) was sold last week and has traded modestly lower since then. No news. SOLD
AvePoint (AVPT) got picked up by Morgan Stanley (MS) last Monday (price target of 18.3), and this week, Baird initiated coverage (price target 17). Morgan’s bullish call highlighted AvePoint as a “data security play with strong Microsoft (MSFT) alignment and exposure to rising GenAI spending.” This alignment not only gives AvePoint access to a huge growth market but also some downside protection, given many competitors don’t have the same position. The report also touched on the benefits of the company’s recent listing in Singapore, which include tax incentives, government-backed investment and programs to boost investor participation. Software stocks haven’t been the strongest area of the market lately, and there’s modest concern about AvePoint’s work with the government, given scrutiny on spending. Without management disclosing how much revenue comes from these projects, we don’t have great visibility. But the risk of a “disaster” quarter is somewhat alleviated, in my view, given that two reputable analysts have just picked up coverage of the stock. BUY
Projected Earnings Date: November 6
Enovix (ENVX) will report Q3 results next Wednesday. There’s been no stock-specific news lately. For ENVX stock to really get going, we need a clear path to mass production in 2026, supported by purchase orders. The recent warrant and convertible note offerings should support all four lines being built out at Fab-2, which should allow for significant order quantities. Revenue is expected to be around $33 million this year, ramping to roughly $100 million in 2026. HOLD
Confirmed Earnings Date: November 5
FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) reports after the bell today with a conference call tomorrow morning at 8 a.m. ET. Management announced last week that the Repauno Port and Rail Terminal has received approval from the NJ Dept. of Environmental Protection for Phase 3 development, which includes construction of two underground granite caverns to store liquified petroleum gas products. This approval is a significant catalyst for value creation at Repauno. This is very low-cost and safe storage space. Whether or not the company will invest the capital to build out the caverns itself or look to sell the entire business remains to be seen, but I think they will sell it. BUY
Confirmed Earnings Date: October 30
Genius Sports (GENI) reports next Tuesday before the open. It is a U.K.-based sports data and technology company that operates in a duopoly industry with Sportstradar (SRAD). Revenue has beaten expectations in 18 of the last 19 quarters and EPS has beaten in four of 18. Performance after the last two quarterly reports has been +12% and +17%. The stock has been in a little funk lately, given the noise around prediction market operators, like Kalshi and Polymarket. The earnings report should clear the air a little. With prediction market players enjoying a more friendly regulatory market, I expect significant opportunities for GENI. BUY HALF
Confirmed Earnings Date: November 4
Hannan Metals (HANNF, HAN.CA) has traded modestly higher over the last week. As an exploration-stage company, it’s not going to move on gold price movements as much as on drilling results. And there hasn’t been any news on that front lately, so we’re in wait-and-see mode. Management expects to start drilling at Previsto in 2026. BUY
Natural Grocers (NGVC) stock has traded lower lately, and especially this morning, possibly due to a poor performance from larger peer Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM). Northcoast Research just initiated coverage on the stock with a buy rating and price target of 54, which is 50% above where the stock currently trades. As I said last week, this “should” help shares. We’re looking for the pace of new store openings to pick up in 2026 with six to eight stores planned. BUY HALF
Projected Earnings Date: November 13
Perpetua Resources (PPTA) continues to attract a lot of attention. I put out a Special Bulletin on Monday reviewing the investment from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM). Then on Tuesday the company announced a $71 million secondary offering priced at 24.3. Next catalysts include finalizing the loan from the U.S. Import-Export Bank, figuring out how to get the antimony to market, exploration activities and full-fledged construction of the Stibnite mine, which is expected to begin next spring. BUY HALF
Xometry (XMTR) will release Q3 results next Tuesday. Management has released some product upgrades lately and will jump into the investor conference mix, speaking at RBC and UBS conferences on November 19 and December 3, respectively. BUY HALF
Confirmed Earnings Date: November 4
Currently Open
| Ticker | Stock Name | Date Bought | Price Bought | 10/30/25 | Profit | Rating |
| AGX | Argan | 8/7/25 | 234 | 298.3 | 27% | Buy |
| AORT | Artivion | 6/5/24 | 23.3 | 45.7 | 96% | Sold Half, Hold Half |
| ATEN | A10 Networks | 7/2/25 | 19.6 | 17.7 | -10% | SOLD |
| AVPT | AvePoint | 9/5/24 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 22% | Buy |
| ENVX | Enovix | 10/6/22 | 20.4 | 11.37 | -44% | Hold |
| FIP | FTAI Infrastructure | 8/1/24 | 10.2 | 5.11 | -50% | Buy |
| GENI | Genius Sports | 10/2/25 | 11.9 | 11.2 | -6% | Buy Half |
| HANNF | Hannan Metals | 5/1/25 | 1.03 | 0.59 | -43% | Buy |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers | 4/3/25 | 40.4 | 36 | -11% | Buy Half |
| PPTA | Perpetua Resources | 12/4/24 | 10.7 | 25.2 | 136% | Buy Half |
| XMTR | Xometry | 9/4/25 | 47.6 | 48.5 | 2% | Buy Half |
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