Issues
The cannabis sector remains unloved as investors abandon hope that President Donald Trump will come through on his campaign promise to reschedule the drug.
Moving cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act would help cannabis companies by obviating an IRS rule that prohibits them from deducting operating expenses (Rule 280E).
I continue to think Trump will live up to his “promises made, promises kept” mantra. It will take some time, because he’s obviously active on many fronts, and cannabis reform does not rise to the level of top priority. Polls continue to show the majority of voters favor reform, particularly younger voters. So, there’s a favorable political angle for conservatives in cannabis reform. Cannabis sales growth continues to be particularly strong (6.2%) in Missouri, a red state.
Moving cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act would help cannabis companies by obviating an IRS rule that prohibits them from deducting operating expenses (Rule 280E).
I continue to think Trump will live up to his “promises made, promises kept” mantra. It will take some time, because he’s obviously active on many fronts, and cannabis reform does not rise to the level of top priority. Polls continue to show the majority of voters favor reform, particularly younger voters. So, there’s a favorable political angle for conservatives in cannabis reform. Cannabis sales growth continues to be particularly strong (6.2%) in Missouri, a red state.
The first quarter of 2025 has been interesting, to say the least. We wrap it up with the March Issue featuring names across the software, security, coffee chain, specialty metals and sports betting markets.
A few familiar faces, and a few new ones, should mean something for everybody. Details inside.
A few familiar faces, and a few new ones, should mean something for everybody. Details inside.
In uncertain times like these, it’s only natural that defensive-minded investors are gravitating to healthcare stocks. After all, this space is characterized by consistent demand for essential products and services that millions rely on, regardless of the state of the economy. (Additionally, many of the companies in this category offer dividends that can be considered quite attractive during market sell-offs.)
While the sector itself has only lately returned to favor, a number of consumer-facing healthcare companies remain out of Wall Street’s good graces and under the public’s radar—including some which provide critical staple products for the everyday needs of consumers.
One of those companies is today’s turnaround recommendation.
While the sector itself has only lately returned to favor, a number of consumer-facing healthcare companies remain out of Wall Street’s good graces and under the public’s radar—including some which provide critical staple products for the everyday needs of consumers.
One of those companies is today’s turnaround recommendation.
After falling into correction territory earlier this month, the S&P 500 came off the bottom and has been trending higher. Is that the end of the selling? I don’t think the market has decided yet.
Some tariff clarity could arrive soon. Stocks rallied strongly to start the week partially on news that pending tariffs will be more “targeted.” Technology stocks also rallied on the perception of higher-than-expected AI demand. But the market is very headline sensitive. And the headlines are likely to keep on coming.
If I had to bet, I would say the market probably made the bottom for now and is more likely to trend higher. But I don’t have a high degree of confidence right now. A couple of negative headlines could send stocks plunging to new lows.
There are some select stocks that are actually near the 52-week high. I’m more comfortable selling a covered call on a stock with recent strong performance than initiating a new stock position at this point. In this issue, I highlight a covered call for the biopharmaceutical company AbbVie Inc. (ABBV).
Some tariff clarity could arrive soon. Stocks rallied strongly to start the week partially on news that pending tariffs will be more “targeted.” Technology stocks also rallied on the perception of higher-than-expected AI demand. But the market is very headline sensitive. And the headlines are likely to keep on coming.
If I had to bet, I would say the market probably made the bottom for now and is more likely to trend higher. But I don’t have a high degree of confidence right now. A couple of negative headlines could send stocks plunging to new lows.
There are some select stocks that are actually near the 52-week high. I’m more comfortable selling a covered call on a stock with recent strong performance than initiating a new stock position at this point. In this issue, I highlight a covered call for the biopharmaceutical company AbbVie Inc. (ABBV).
Despite some more worrisome price action throughout the week, the three leading indexes were able to eke out gains last week. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Dow rallied 1.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 0.2%.
Nobody is going to claim that the past couple of weeks have been perfect, but given where things stood following the market’s three-week mini-crash, the recent action has been constructive; short term, we’d expect more upside testing, too. That said, on an intermediate-term basis, there’s much more work to do, as the trends remain down, most indexes have recouped easily less than half of their prior declines and the majority of stocks are actually still below 200-day lines. We are going to bump up our Market Monitor a notch to a level 4 to respect the action, but overall we remain cautious as we wait to see how this bottom-building process develops.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though all of them have shown some intriguing strength of late as the market has found support. Our Top Pick has pushed back to its old highs on great volume after some positive news last week.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though all of them have shown some intriguing strength of late as the market has found support. Our Top Pick has pushed back to its old highs on great volume after some positive news last week.
Calm has been restored to the stock market, at least for now. And while stocks haven’t exploded to the upside, it does appear as if a temporary bottom has been put in. With that in mind, today we add a pure growth stock – a cybersecurity play with plenty of momentum, recommended by Mike Cintolo to his Cabot Top Ten Trader audience last week. We also have no sells from our own portfolio, as many of them have been in full recovery mode the last week or two.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Despite some more worrisome price action throughout the week, the three leading indexes were able to eke out gains. For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Dow rallied 1.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 0.2%.
Despite some more worrisome price action throughout the week, the three leading indexes were able to eke out gains. For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Dow rallied 1.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 0.2%.
After a punishing three-week decline, the market has stabilized a bit, and we’ve actually seen some secondary positives, too, with a short-term positive divergence in our Two-Second Indicator, falling Treasury rates and some big dips in investor sentiment. That said, both the markets intermediate-term and longer-term trends are pointed down now, and while there are some resilient stocks out there, most names are also buried beneath key levels. A bottom-building process could be underway, and big-picture, we don’t view this downturn as unusual (see more on that in today’s issue), but for now, we’re staying defensive with a big cash hoard, waiting for the market to change character.
There is no sugarcoating it: last week was ugly for the market as the S&P 500 fell 2.3%, the Dow lost 3.1%, and the Nasdaq declined by another 2.4%. And while the market looks terrible, on a positive note, stocks had their best day of the year on Friday.
After a horrid start to the week, the market actually began finding support last Tuesday and has bounced a bit since. To us, it’s a baby step, and ideally the start of a near-term rally phase that will allow us to not just judge the strength of any recovery efforts, but to also see if any fresher growth stocks per up. However, for the here and now, the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes and vast majority of stocks is pointed down, so we’re remaining mostly in our bunker. If we do see some upside follow-through this week, we could become a bit more optimistic but we’ll wait to see if that happens.
This week’s list is another hodgepodge, with some zingers, some defensive titles and a name or two that are dancing to their own drummer. Our Top Pick has a unique story, and now perception is increasing as demand and pricing picks up.
This week’s list is another hodgepodge, with some zingers, some defensive titles and a name or two that are dancing to their own drummer. Our Top Pick has a unique story, and now perception is increasing as demand and pricing picks up.
Updates
Tesla (TSLA) is getting lots of headlines these days, and for good reason.
Their CEO and founder, Elon Musk, was tabbed by President-elect Donald Trump to head up something called the Department of Government Efficiency (along with Vivek Ramaswamy); their stock price is up 57% in the last month; and the company is coming off its first truly encouraging quarterly earnings report in a year. Anyone who invested in TSLA a year ago, five years ago, or 13 years ago, when our Mike Cintolo first recommended the stock in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, has made a LOT of money.
But another company has surpassed Tesla as the biggest EV seller in the world. And today, we add it to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio.
Their CEO and founder, Elon Musk, was tabbed by President-elect Donald Trump to head up something called the Department of Government Efficiency (along with Vivek Ramaswamy); their stock price is up 57% in the last month; and the company is coming off its first truly encouraging quarterly earnings report in a year. Anyone who invested in TSLA a year ago, five years ago, or 13 years ago, when our Mike Cintolo first recommended the stock in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, has made a LOT of money.
But another company has surpassed Tesla as the biggest EV seller in the world. And today, we add it to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio.
After a huge post-election rally, the market leveled off.
The S&P 500 soared 5% in the three days after the election. Since then, it hasn’t pulled back with any significance, but it has stopped going up.
The S&P 500 soared 5% in the three days after the election. Since then, it hasn’t pulled back with any significance, but it has stopped going up.
The market leveled off last week after the huge election surge. Stocks are trying to find a more sober post-election footing.
The S&P 500 was down very slightly last week after soaring 5% in the three days following the election. The initial reaction to the Trump victory was higher growth expectations and a surge in cyclical stocks countered by a spike in interest rates. We’ll see if those trends continue after the market fully digests the election.
The S&P 500 was down very slightly last week after soaring 5% in the three days following the election. The initial reaction to the Trump victory was higher growth expectations and a surge in cyclical stocks countered by a spike in interest rates. We’ll see if those trends continue after the market fully digests the election.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Barrick Gold (GOLD), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Intel (INTC), Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
The favorable liquidity backdrop should continue for the rest of Q4, which is ideal for initiating new turnaround trading positions.
The favorable liquidity backdrop should continue for the rest of Q4, which is ideal for initiating new turnaround trading positions.
Trump’s victory has given the S&P 600 SmallCap Index the jolt it needed to break out above this year’s overhead resistance at 1,465.
This is what it looks like on a daily chart going back about a year ...
This is what it looks like on a daily chart going back about a year ...
The rally since the election continues as Bitcoin reached $90,000 for the first time. Tesla (TSLA) has climbed more than 40%, and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks shares of some of the nation’s largest lenders, is surging.
Dutch Bros (BROS) shares jumped 36% this week as it beat analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines while offering improved guidance for the remainder of 2024. Sea Limited (SE) soared 10.3% as the Singapore-based company reported overall net income that beat estimates at $153.3 million, with a better-than-projected 31% rise in revenue for the September quarter.
Dutch Bros (BROS) shares jumped 36% this week as it beat analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines while offering improved guidance for the remainder of 2024. Sea Limited (SE) soared 10.3% as the Singapore-based company reported overall net income that beat estimates at $153.3 million, with a better-than-projected 31% rise in revenue for the September quarter.
The honeymoon phase for a second Trump term continues on Wall Street. Stocks are up 3.5% in the week since Trump won the election, with all three of the major indexes advancing to new all-time highs. The reaction is being framed as specific to Donald Trump and his potential influence on stock prices – the so-called “Trump Trade” – but in reality, this is nothing new.
In recent years, there’s always been a honeymoon phase for stocks after a presidential election – regardless of which party or candidate won. And it typically lasts until the newly elected president’s inauguration in late January.
In recent years, there’s always been a honeymoon phase for stocks after a presidential election – regardless of which party or candidate won. And it typically lasts until the newly elected president’s inauguration in late January.
Donald Trump was elected President last Tuesday, and the market posted the best week of the year. The S&P 500 soared about 5% in the three days following the election.
Investors perceive his election will deliver stronger economic growth, primarily through deregulation and tax cuts. Although interest rates spiked higher on the expectation of a stronger economy, the market views the revised prognosis as overwhelmingly bullish, so far.
Investors perceive his election will deliver stronger economic growth, primarily through deregulation and tax cuts. Although interest rates spiked higher on the expectation of a stronger economy, the market views the revised prognosis as overwhelmingly bullish, so far.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Alcoa (AA), Atlassian (TEAM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Viatris (VTRS), and Pan American Silver (PAAS).
Continued strong earnings reactions this week bode well for several of our recent portfolio additions.
Continued strong earnings reactions this week bode well for several of our recent portfolio additions.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish. The market has reacted well to the election and took today’s Fed decision in stride; both of our trend-following indicators are bullish and leading growth stocks remain in good shape. Today, we took partial profits in AppLovin (APP) via a special bulletin after it went vertical on earnings. But tonight, we’re putting that and a bit more money back to work via two new positions—starting half-sized stakes in Samsara (IOT) and the ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Fund (UWM), leaving us with a cash position around 18%.
The cannabis sector is taking a severe body blow because of election outcomes.
The big negative: Florida voters rejected Amendment 3, which would have legalized recreational use. Voters in North Dakota and South Dakota also rejected cannabis legalization.
The big negative: Florida voters rejected Amendment 3, which would have legalized recreational use. Voters in North Dakota and South Dakota also rejected cannabis legalization.
The election is over. The biggest risk, a disputed outcome, has been avoided. The new President is being viewed by markets as generally good for business and stocks. The market is thrilled today and rallying substantially.
Alerts
WHAT TO DO NOW: The major indexes are bouncing some this morning, but growth stocks remain mixed, and after last week, many are damaged. We’re going to sell the rest of our small CrowdStrike (CRWD) position, as not only is the stock fading again, but we think perception has likely been crushed and could stay that way. That will leave us with 54% in cash—that’s too high given the top-down evidence, so while we’ll hold onto it for the moment, we could put some back to work this week if things shape up a bit.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
WHAT TO DO NOW: It’s been a brutal week for growth stocks in general, with the major indexes off some but with more breakdowns than we have seen in a few months. Today’s update involves CrowdStrike (CRWD), which is getting hammered today after an update glitch has disrupted a ton of the world’s operations overnight and this morning. To respect the action, we’re going to sell one-third of what we have, though we’ll hold the remaining small-ish position for now. Many more details below. Our cash position will be just shy of 50%, which we’ll hold onto as we wait for growth stocks to find support.
The market and growth stocks are getting hit once again today (partially because of rumors of geopolitical tensions regarding China and Taiwan), but as always, we go with the evidence, and the selling wave in growth stocks that popped up a week or two ago has continued this week with more and more name flashing intermediate-term abnormal action.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Four days doesn’t guarantee success, but the sharp broad market rally during the past few sessions has turned our Cabot Tides positive and improved our Two-Second Indicator; growth stocks remain choppy, but some names are perking up there, too. All told, we’re going to put a little money to work today, adding half-sized stakes (5% of the portfolio) in Robinhood (HOOD) and ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Fund (UWM). That will leave us with around 30% in cash. Details below.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.