The evidence has improved during the past couple of weeks, with our Two-Second Indicator looking much better and, importantly, a Three Day Thrust signal (one of our Blastoff Indicators) flashing green last week, both of which prompted us to put a little money to work last week. Still, while that’s definitely a feather in the bulls’ cap, the primary evidence remains negative, so we’re continuing to hold plenty of cash while setting our sights on next week: If our Tides turn positive and many potential leaders gap on earnings (there are tons of names reporting next week), we’ll definitely be putting a good chunk of money to work ... but as always, we’ll take it as it comes, which today means going slow but staying flexible should the market’s recent good vibes accelerate.

Few industries were more negatively impacted by Covid than the cruise industry. And few have come roaring back faster in Covid’s wake. And yet, share prices haven’t kept up with the record sales and passenger numbers. So today, we recommend a major cruise-industry stock that has the largest disparity between sales and earnings growth and share price growth. We also have updates on all our existing stocks as investors mercifully put a historically choppy April for the market in the rear-view mirror and flip the calendar to what will hopefully be a far more fruitful May.

Details inside. Enjoy!

Cannabis stocks continue to post sharp rallies on rumors of progress on federal policy developments like banking reform and rescheduling. Then the stocks give it all back over the next day or two.

There are two ways to deal with this trend.

“What’s that got to do with the price of eggs?” is an adage that was once commonly used to question the relevance of a particular subject introduced to a conversation. But in light of current economic conditions—and as it pertains to this month’s stock recommendation—that question is entirely relevant.

Indeed, the price of eggs is just one of many concerns for millions of Americans today as inflation remains a thorn for the economy and for policymakers. Record-high egg prices have become emblematic of the larger question of inflation’s persistence, particularly for retail food costs.

After an ugly start to the week on Monday of last week, stocks rallied very impressively as the S&P 500 gained 4.6%, the Dow added 2.5% and the Nasdaq surged higher by 6.7%.

The past week or so definitely showed some very encouraging action, with one of the key “blastoff” indicators we track turning green on Thursday. So does that mean we’re off to the races? Well, we wouldn’t go there, at least not yet: The intermediate-term trend of the market and most stocks are still down, and it’s not unusual at all to see some near-term wobbles after this kind of blastoff signal. All in all, we think there’s enough good vibes to extend your line a bit—but we don’t advise buying hand over fist as we’re still looking to see added confirmation. We’ll bump up our Market Monitor two notches to a level 5.

This week’s list is full of resilient names, though many have earnings coming up, so be aware of those dates. Our Top Pick has a great story, great numbers and a resilient chart, with shares back near their highs after a bullish earnings reaction. Start small here or on dips.

It was a much better week for the market, and even more so our portfolio, as all but two of our existing 20 stocks were up at least 2%. Of course, there’s a lot of ground to make up from the damage done by “Liberation Day” at the start of the month, but it’s possible the market has turned a corner and a glorious month of May awaits for U.S. stocks. In case it doesn’t, however, today we beef up our overseas exposure by adding our first ETF in a while. It’s a fund just recommended by Carl Delfeld to his Cabot Explorer audience – and one that aims to take advantage of recent strength in European stocks.

Details inside.

After an ugly start to the week on Monday, stocks rallied very impressively as the S&P 500 gained 4.6%, the Dow added 2.5% and the Nasdaq surged higher by 6.7%.

After an ugly start to the week on Monday, stocks rallied very impressively as the S&P 500 gained 4.6%, the Dow added 2.5% and the Nasdaq surged higher by 6.7%.

Markets recovered some gains yesterday following a climb down on both stiff reciprocal China tariffs and speculation that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell might be fired. Explorer stocks had a good week with Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) up 9%, while DBS Bank (DBSDY) shares were up 7.7% this week following last week’s 6.9% gain.

Today, we add a new ETF with exposure to a very particular European sector that should be immune to the ongoing tariff wars.

Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea we need to address our stock positions coming out of April expiration, all of which we are going to sell as the market continues to be under pressure.

It’s been a tough market. The S&P started this week down about 6% for the month of April, over 10% YTD, and over 14% from the high. And that was before Monday’s selloff. It is entirely possible that the market falls back to a new low and an official bear market.

The tariff uncertainty is continuing, and it could get worse. A bad headline could roil the market any day. We’re not out of the woods yet. The market could get worse before it gets better. But it will get better at some point.

Investing for dividends and income is a longer-term proposition. Investors typically don’t jump in and out of these stocks in a short time. You have to hold the stock long enough for the dividend to make a difference. Although the market remains troubling in the near term, there are some great opportunities for longer-term investors.

Note: Due to the Christmas holiday, there will be no Cabot Small-Cap Confidential update next week. Happy holidays!

In last week’s update I spoke about the potential for a market retreat early in 2025 given that investors are sitting on sizeable paper profits, and selling after December 31 would allow them to postpone capital gains taxes.

My projection may have been off by a week and a half.

The Dow is in a tailspin.

After Wednesday’s Fed-ignited selloff, the 118-year-old index has now fallen for 10 consecutive days – its longest string of down days since 1974. Prior to yesterday, the index hadn’t fallen much during the first nine days of this losing streak, down just 3.47%; but yesterday’s 2.58% decline stretched those losses to an even 6%. So what once was a modest pullback is now hurtling toward a correction.

It looks like the election euphoria has run out of gas. The market has digested the election and is now back to business as usual.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost ground for nine consecutive sessions. Most of the S&P 500 sectors have been down over the past month. Of course, the S&P is still within a whisker of the high. It hasn’t pulled back. But it hasn’t gone up in a while either.

Quick Note: Due to the Christmas holiday, you will receive the next Cabot Turnaround Letter issue a week early, on Wednesday, December 18, 2024.

In today’s note, we discuss a number of positive developments and bullish outlooks for several of our portfolio positions, including American Airlines (AAL), SLB Ltd. (SLB), the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).

The big macro news of the week wasn’t specific to small caps, but it sure helped in stopping a sliding small-cap index at its 25-day moving average line yesterday.

I’m referring to the CPI print for November, which was released at 8:30 AM ET yesterday and gave most of the major market indices a boost, with the exception of the Dow.

I recently noticed a few popular stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) offering exposure to leveraged Bitcoin which to me seems like excessive risk and a sign of potential trouble.

This is like pouring gasoline on a roaring fire. It reminds me of a quote from Edward Chancellor’s book The Price of Time, which offered this gem:

“……as a rule, panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has previously been destroyed by [the taking on of excessive leverage in good times].”

The market is getting a little frothy.

The S&P 500 is up 5.5% in the five weeks since election day, though that’s a historically normal bump following an election. The bull/bear ratio topped 3.9 last week – just shy of the 4.0 “danger zone” that often precedes pullbacks, though it’s not the first time it’s been this high in recent months. And Bitcoin, an asset that thrives in bull markets and typically tops right before a major pullback, just crossed the $100,000 threshold for the first time and has more than doubled in the last three months.

May the buyouts begin. Poor sentiment has pushed the values of cannabis companies so low, the strong are now buying the weak. Like the recent cannabis company insider buying, this is a signal that valuations may be close to bottoming here.

However, realistically, it could be a while before the sector recovers since we are dependent on politicians for progress.

The post-election bounce is over. But stocks could still finish the year higher. These are good times. The S&P 500 is up about 30% year to date. This adds to a 26% return for the index in 2023.

In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including American Airlines (AAL), Atlassian (TEAM), Duluth Holdings (DLTH), Intel (INTC), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish but continue to manage your portfolio and pick your spots carefully on the buy side. Our market timing indicators are in good shape, and leading growth stocks continue to impress, though near-term sentiment is getting euphoric. Tonight, we’re going to sell one-third of our stake in Shift4 (FOUR), which has fallen sharply on out-of-the-blue news, which will leave us with 16% in cash.

These are good times. The S&P 500 is up 6% since the election and 27% year to date. This adds to a 26% return for the index in 2023.

The market is seemingly making new highs every day as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward because of the election. We’ll see if the economic growth materializes. But this optimistic economy expectation comes while the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will likely last the next two years. Why wouldn’t the market be partying?

Kaspi.kz (KSPI) and Netflix (NFLX)

WHAT TO DO NOW: The major indexes are bouncing some this morning, but growth stocks remain mixed, and after last week, many are damaged. We’re going to sell the rest of our small CrowdStrike (CRWD) position, as not only is the stock fading again, but we think perception has likely been crushed and could stay that way. That will leave us with 54% in cash—that’s too high given the top-down evidence, so while we’ll hold onto it for the moment, we could put some back to work this week if things shape up a bit.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

WHAT TO DO NOW: It’s been a brutal week for growth stocks in general, with the major indexes off some but with more breakdowns than we have seen in a few months. Today’s update involves CrowdStrike (CRWD), which is getting hammered today after an update glitch has disrupted a ton of the world’s operations overnight and this morning. To respect the action, we’re going to sell one-third of what we have, though we’ll hold the remaining small-ish position for now. Many more details below. Our cash position will be just shy of 50%, which we’ll hold onto as we wait for growth stocks to find support.

The market and growth stocks are getting hit once again today (partially because of rumors of geopolitical tensions regarding China and Taiwan), but as always, we go with the evidence, and the selling wave in growth stocks that popped up a week or two ago has continued this week with more and more name flashing intermediate-term abnormal action.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Four days doesn’t guarantee success, but the sharp broad market rally during the past few sessions has turned our Cabot Tides positive and improved our Two-Second Indicator; growth stocks remain choppy, but some names are perking up there, too. All told, we’re going to put a little money to work today, adding half-sized stakes (5% of the portfolio) in Robinhood (HOOD) and ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Fund (UWM). That will leave us with around 30% in cash. Details below.

Sell BellRing Brands (BRBR)

Cava (CAVA) Moves to Sell a Quarter, SharkNinja (SN) to Hold

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.

An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.