Issues
Is the worst of this late-winter selloff over? Or are there lower depths still to plumb? A lot may depend on what the Fed says this week. Or the next bit of tariff news. Or who knows what. There’s a lot of uncertainty out there. And the market hates uncertainty. But after a month of almost nothing but selling, there are some encouraging signs of life.
Still, the wise move is to stick to safety, so this week we add a safe dividend stock that’s in about as reliable a business as there is: trash collection. It’s a new recommendation from Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson.
Details inside.
Still, the wise move is to stick to safety, so this week we add a safe dividend stock that’s in about as reliable a business as there is: trash collection. It’s a new recommendation from Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson.
Details inside.
There is no sugar coating it: last week was ugly for the market as the S&P 500 fell 2.3%, the Dow lost 3.1%, and the Nasdaq declined by another 2.4%. And while the market looks terrible, on a positive note stocks had their best day of the year on Friday.
There is no sugar coating it: last week was ugly for the market as the S&P 500 fell 2.3%, the Dow lost 3.1%, and the Nasdaq declined by another 2.4%. And while the market looks terrible, on a positive note stocks had their best day of the year on Friday.
I don’t know about you, but these market swings are definitely making me dizzy! Tariffs, inflation, the reemergence of recession fears—are all serving to rattle investors.
This morning’s inflation report, however, did push us into somewhat positive territory, with February’s CPI rising 0.2% (2.8%, annually), a bit less than the 0.3% forecast and considerably better than the 0.5% rise in January.
Also, on the good news front, mortgage rates have finally begun to decline, with the average 30-year interest rate now at 6.72%.
This morning’s inflation report, however, did push us into somewhat positive territory, with February’s CPI rising 0.2% (2.8%, annually), a bit less than the 0.3% forecast and considerably better than the 0.5% rise in January.
Also, on the good news front, mortgage rates have finally begun to decline, with the average 30-year interest rate now at 6.72%.
The great rebalancing is unfolding as we expected with the S&P 500 struggling while other global markets are gaining traction. The performance gap between U.S. and international equities so far this year is the largest since 2017.
With that in mind, today we add a new recommendation outside U.S. borders - albeit a company whose bread and butter is the U.S. market. It’s the best of both worlds.
Details inside.
With that in mind, today we add a new recommendation outside U.S. borders - albeit a company whose bread and butter is the U.S. market. It’s the best of both worlds.
Details inside.
This is the worst market we’ve seen in a while. And the ugliness could last a while.
Tariff talk is all the rage. The economy is slowing. Nobody is sure about inflation or interest rates. It all adds uncertainty. The market had been riding high for more than two years. A comeuppance has arrived. How long will it last and how deep will it be?
During times of maximum uncertainty like this, healthcare stocks are a great place to be. That was the topic of last month’s exquisitely crafted issue. But there is another industry with both defensive and growth characteristics that’s ideal for uncertain times – garbage.
We live in the garbage capital of the world. This country generated 292 million tons of waste in 2018, up from 251 tons in 2012, and nearly double the waste produced in 1980. That’s enough waste to produce a pile long enough to go to the moon and back – 29 times. And that’s every single year. Waste services are big business. In 2023, the U.S. waste management services industry generated $145 billion in revenue. That was up from $137 billion the prior year and that number is likely to keep rising.
Garbage will continue to pile up regardless of where interest rates go, the level of economic growth, or the fallout from tariffs. The market could soar, or the world could go to Hell in a handbag. Either way my wife will nag me every week to take out the garbage.
Bank on a company with certain earnings and revenue in uncertain times. Defensive stocks tend to outperform during and after volatile markets. In this issue, I highlight a company that is the unquestioned leader in waste services. The stock has a strong track record which could get even better in the years ahead.
Tariff talk is all the rage. The economy is slowing. Nobody is sure about inflation or interest rates. It all adds uncertainty. The market had been riding high for more than two years. A comeuppance has arrived. How long will it last and how deep will it be?
During times of maximum uncertainty like this, healthcare stocks are a great place to be. That was the topic of last month’s exquisitely crafted issue. But there is another industry with both defensive and growth characteristics that’s ideal for uncertain times – garbage.
We live in the garbage capital of the world. This country generated 292 million tons of waste in 2018, up from 251 tons in 2012, and nearly double the waste produced in 1980. That’s enough waste to produce a pile long enough to go to the moon and back – 29 times. And that’s every single year. Waste services are big business. In 2023, the U.S. waste management services industry generated $145 billion in revenue. That was up from $137 billion the prior year and that number is likely to keep rising.
Garbage will continue to pile up regardless of where interest rates go, the level of economic growth, or the fallout from tariffs. The market could soar, or the world could go to Hell in a handbag. Either way my wife will nag me every week to take out the garbage.
Bank on a company with certain earnings and revenue in uncertain times. Defensive stocks tend to outperform during and after volatile markets. In this issue, I highlight a company that is the unquestioned leader in waste services. The stock has a strong track record which could get even better in the years ahead.
The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%. The selling only worsened on Monday, with all three indexes down more than 2%.
What we’ve seen since the February 19 top in growth stocks has basically been a rolling crash, with most every leading stock from 2024 breaking its intermediate-term uptrend. Now, short-term, we do think things are finally getting hairy—recession fears and tariff headlines are making the rounds even as we are seeing a few near-term rays of light (the number of stocks hitting new lows is actually drying up a bit). That might be a reason to hold a some smaller positions at a profit, but overall, we remain clearly defensive. Our Market Monitor is now at a level 3, though we’re most interested in seeing how strong and persistent any bounce is once it begins.
This week’s list has names from all over the map, though medical and foreign stocks certainly dominate the list. Our Top Pick is a mid-cap biotech that has booming sales and earnings, and the stock is strong.
This week’s list has names from all over the map, though medical and foreign stocks certainly dominate the list. Our Top Pick is a mid-cap biotech that has booming sales and earnings, and the stock is strong.
The market is melting down with no end in sight. The question is, does this more closely resemble the July/August carry trade/weak jobs report selling of last year, when the major indexes fell an almost identical amount to what they have in the past three weeks? Or are we hurtling toward the end of the 28-month bull market? We may know the answer soon, as the all-important February inflation prints are released later this week.
In the meantime, we’re playing plenty of defense in today’s issue, selling out of six of our positions that have completely broken down, and adding shares of a low-risk gold miner that’s been a favorite of Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld for some time.
Details inside.
In the meantime, we’re playing plenty of defense in today’s issue, selling out of six of our positions that have completely broken down, and adding shares of a low-risk gold miner that’s been a favorite of Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld for some time.
Details inside.
The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%.
The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%.
After a huge run and a choppy two-month stretch, the sellers have taken control and are crushing most stocks, especially growth titles, many of which broken down and--for the big winners of last year--are flashing abnormal action. With our Cabot Tides, Two-Second Indicator and Aggression Index firmly negative, we’re mostly on the sideline and are content to wait things out until the next uptrend gets underway.
Encouragingly, though, there are still a good number of fresher growth stocks (got going in the last two or three months) that are taking the selling in stride; upside will be limited for now, of course, but tonight we have an expanded watch list of names that could be new leaders down the road. Eventually, the sun will shine again, but for now it’s best to focus mostly on capital preservation, which will allow us to make that much more money when the bulls are back.
Encouragingly, though, there are still a good number of fresher growth stocks (got going in the last two or three months) that are taking the selling in stride; upside will be limited for now, of course, but tonight we have an expanded watch list of names that could be new leaders down the road. Eventually, the sun will shine again, but for now it’s best to focus mostly on capital preservation, which will allow us to make that much more money when the bulls are back.
Updates
It’s all about the election right now.
The massive political event is sucking all the oxygen away from everything else. It’s worth noting that the Fed will meet and likely cut the Fed Funds rate this week. That will be the focus after the election is resolved, if it’s resolved.
I don’t get into the business of predicting political outcomes. That’s not my horserace. As of now, the markets seem to be leaning toward a Trump victory. That appears to be the more likely bet. But all that stuff favored Hillary even more so in 2016. We’ll see what happens.
The massive political event is sucking all the oxygen away from everything else. It’s worth noting that the Fed will meet and likely cut the Fed Funds rate this week. That will be the focus after the election is resolved, if it’s resolved.
I don’t get into the business of predicting political outcomes. That’s not my horserace. As of now, the markets seem to be leaning toward a Trump victory. That appears to be the more likely bet. But all that stuff favored Hillary even more so in 2016. We’ll see what happens.
In today’s note, we discuss a flurry of key news developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Atlassian (TEAM), Intel (INTC) and Janus Henderson Group (JHG).
Two strong earnings reactions after Thursday’s market close bode well for two of our recent portfolio additions.
Two strong earnings reactions after Thursday’s market close bode well for two of our recent portfolio additions.
The broad market has been resilient up until today when we see Microsoft (MSFT) leading the Nasdaq lower.
That said, small caps are hanging tough and are almost exactly flat over the last week.
The darn 10-year yield is still up, which signals the market thinks the Fed did not need to cut by 50bps in September. I’m increasingly dubious about a rate cut next Thursday, even though the market is saying there’s a 95% probability of a cut.
That said, small caps are hanging tough and are almost exactly flat over the last week.
The darn 10-year yield is still up, which signals the market thinks the Fed did not need to cut by 50bps in September. I’m increasingly dubious about a rate cut next Thursday, even though the market is saying there’s a 95% probability of a cut.
We need to begin with some bad news. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock tumbled 32% yesterday after its audit firm, Ernst & Young, resigned. The auditor said it had recently learned of information “which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the audit committee’s representations, and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.”
As you read this, I am likely fortifying my house in preparation for the 400-500 Trick-or-Treaters that are sure to descend on our place in Vermont in a few hours. That’s no exaggeration – we live on a crowded street that draws kids from all over town, and even adjoining towns, trying to maximize their Halloween hauls. The 1,000 pieces of candy I buy every year and the countless ghouls, skeletons, smoke-emitting jack-o’-lanterns and giant spiders I’ve accrued the last few years to adorn our lawn are almost like an annual tax.
Living in such a bustling Halloween hotbed is fun, and it’s certainly a blast for our two kids. But it’s a lot of work, and we’re always happy when the calendar flips to November. And in that way, it reminds me a bit of the market every October.
Living in such a bustling Halloween hotbed is fun, and it’s certainly a blast for our two kids. But it’s a lot of work, and we’re always happy when the calendar flips to November. And in that way, it reminds me a bit of the market every October.
It has been a great market for most of the last two years. But the bull run will be severely tested over the next couple of weeks.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
It has been a great market for most of the last two years. But the bull market chops will be severely tested over the next couple of weeks.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
In today’s note, we discuss a flurry of key news developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Baxter International (BAX), B2Gold (BTG), Intel (INTC), Polaris (PII), Solventum (SOLV), Viatris (VTRS) and Vodaphone (VOD).
We’re adding two new stocks to the portfolio, providing us with exposure to the white-hot silver mining sector as well as the seasonally strong food services industry.
We’ll also discuss some catalysts for the under-the-radar restaurant group, including three very attractive potential turnaround plays.
We’re adding two new stocks to the portfolio, providing us with exposure to the white-hot silver mining sector as well as the seasonally strong food services industry.
We’ll also discuss some catalysts for the under-the-radar restaurant group, including three very attractive potential turnaround plays.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains in good shape, though we have seen the indexes and many individual titles exhale a bit of late as many short-term uncertainties (earnings season and the election) and headwinds (rising interest rates) weigh. We’re bullish overall, but are being selective on the buy side—tonight, we’re standing pat, holding our 20%-ish cash position and collection of relatively strong performers.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index has dipped about 3% over the last week while yields have gone up.
The chart of the 10-year yield and the small-cap index plotted together makes this inverse relationship (in the very short term) clear as day.
The chart of the 10-year yield and the small-cap index plotted together makes this inverse relationship (in the very short term) clear as day.
October hasn’t been accompanied by the type of stock selling we’ve witnessed the last two years, when U.S. markets fell sharply in October and reached a second-half-of-the-year bottom both times. Instead, this October has wrought a more subtle disappointment: rising interest rates.
Indeed, despite the Fed’s 50-basis point cut to the federal funds rate in mid-September ringing in a new era of rate slashing, 10-year Treasury yields have risen steadily since the calendar flipped to October, going from 3.80% to 4.24% – their highest level since July. In fact, Treasury yields are up 15% since September 18, the day the Fed cut rates for the first time in four and a half years.
Indeed, despite the Fed’s 50-basis point cut to the federal funds rate in mid-September ringing in a new era of rate slashing, 10-year Treasury yields have risen steadily since the calendar flipped to October, going from 3.80% to 4.24% – their highest level since July. In fact, Treasury yields are up 15% since September 18, the day the Fed cut rates for the first time in four and a half years.
The market has been generally very good, although it’s wobbling this week so far.
The bull market that started two years ago has returned more than 60% in the S&P 500. The index is up about 23% year to date. The market rally has also broadened since the summer to include many other stocks and sectors besides technology.
The bull market that started two years ago has returned more than 60% in the S&P 500. The index is up about 23% year to date. The market rally has also broadened since the summer to include many other stocks and sectors besides technology.
Alerts
Cava (CAVA) Moves to Sell a Quarter, SharkNinja (SN) to Hold
WHAT TO DO NOW: While a couple handfuls of mega-cap stocks act well, we continue to see more stocks hit air pockets than get going on the upside, which, combined with our mixed market timing indicators, has us staying relatively close to shore. Today we’re going to sell one-third of our stake in Cava (CAVA)—like so many names, the stock has been unable to break through resistance, and now it (and its peer group) has come under heavy selling pressure. Our cash position will now be just over 40%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s evidence remains unchanged, with a choppy, narrow and challenging environment. Many stocks are hanging in there, but there continue to be air pockets here and there, and our goal is to get out of names that are truly breaking down while holding (and possibly adding) resilient growth titles. Tonight, we’re going to sell PulteGroup (PHM), which hasn’t been able to bounce and cracked support today on a big rise in rates. Our cash position will be around 37%, which we’ll hold onto tonight but could put some back to work in the days ahead.
Shares of Rivian (RIVN) are trading up double digits today (though well off their highs) on news of a staged equity investment and joint venture (JV) with Volkswagen (VWAPY). One of the biggest concerns with Rivian (and other early-stage EV manufacturers) is access to capital and gaining enough manufacturing scale to get to cash flow positive. This deal with Volkswagen addresses much of that concern.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The shine seems to have come off gold and gold miners recently so we’re going to step aside from Alamos Gold (AGI) at just a hair above our entry price.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.