It’s turning out to be a typical volatile January, with last week’s harsh selling among leading stocks leading to this week’s strong snapback that’s seen many leaders (including a few names we own) roar back to new high ground. That’s not to say the wobbles are over--in fact, we’d half-expect some more wiggles given earnings season is just getting started. But overall, things are volatile, but still bullish, so while we’re not flooring the accelerator, we are staying positive.


Last week, we sold half of one stock and placed another on Hold, but tonight, we’re going to start a new half-sized position in an old (from last year) favorite that we think got derailed mostly by the market environment last summer and fall--and now looks poised to do well if the market holds together.

Welcome to our TOP PICKS issue! For this issue, I asked the Cabot analysts to give me a couple of their top picks for 2024. I hope you will be pleased with the diversity—market-cap and sector-wise—that the analysts have offered.

But first, let’s talk about the market.

Things look good for 2024. Inflation is down, interest rates have likely peaked, and there is no sign of recession. But you never know. It’s a tough game to predict the future of the market. However, certain trends are likely to persist.

It’s a good bet that interest rates have peaked. Sure, they could edge higher from here. But they are unlikely to soar to new highs past 5% for the 10-year Treasury. The situation would have to completely reverse for that to happen. Meanwhile, stocks that have been dragged lower by rising interest rates have come alive again.

These stocks, which have strong track records of market outperformance, are at historically cheap valuations, have established upward momentum, and are positioned ahead of a likely slowing economy.

Also, artificial intelligence is here to stay. Businesses must spend on it not only for competitive advantage, but as a matter of survival. The new technology will continue to be a strong growth catalyst for technology stocks. And the trend will continue regardless of what the Fed does, or the state of the economy, or who is elected president.

In this issue, I highlight a fantastic dividend stock whose long record of strong performance has been interrupted these last two years. It’s also a company that focuses on technology and will surely benefit from the proliferation of AI in the years ahead. The timing for this stock should be outstanding.

2024 got off to a somewhat rocky start as the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Dow lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 3.5% last week. And while the indexes fell there is rarely much to learn from the first week of the year as it is routinely “wonky,” with traders rotating from one sector to the next, and tax-related trading moving money out of recent winners.

Heads up: Because of MLK Day, next week’s issue will be published next Tuesday (January 16) after the close.

As for the market, we don’t want to repeat ourselves, but early January is known for sharp moves, and that might be playing out now. We’re not ignoring the short-term gyrations, especially if a stock really cracks key support, and, frankly, we’d expect some more tossing and turning, but we advise focusing more on the intermediate term—and on that front, the vast majority of evidence remains in the bull camp. We’re going to nudge our Market Monitor down to a level 7 to respect the wobbles we’ve seen, but overall we’re leaning bullish until the evidence changes.

This week’s list is an interesting one, with a batch of proven performers along with some off-the-bottom and more speculative situations. Our Top Pick is a name that was left for dead during the bear phase but has the makings of a powerful turnaround as revenue growth accelerates from modest levels and some newer offerings take root.

Stocks had a sluggish first week of 2024, but it’s not cause for concern yet. In fact, all of the Cabot Stock of the Week holdings are acting well enough that we haven’t had to subtract from the portfolio in weeks, allowing it to swell to 26 stocks with today’s new addition. It’s an undervalued dividend stock that is showing signs of life with interest rate cuts now firmly on the horizon – which should directly benefit its business. Tom Hutchinson just recommended the stock to his Cabot Dividend Investor audience.

Details inside.

We have six positions that are due to expire within the next two to three weeks. As it stands, at least so far, all of our positions are in great shape. Going forward, my intent this week is to add a few more income-generating positions to the mix. I’m looking at a higher volatility play as well as a few more lower beta stocks and ETFs with lower implied volatility as well. Remember, we not only want to diversify our approach using uncorrelated assets, we also want to vary our levels of volatility throughout the portfolio.

Okay, everyone, the wait is over: Earnings season is back. While the next few weeks will start rather slowly for earnings announcements, we should still see two to three trades before earnings season begins to truly pick up.

This week we have the big banks kicking things off, per usual. My hope is that we can get one, if not two trades off this week. As always, I’ll be focusing on stocks in the weekly watch list below, with Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase at the forefront.

Our SPY bear call spread is due to expire in 10 days. The probabilities on the trade stand at roughly 74% with two weeks left until expiration. A push lower early this week and we should be able to lock in a nice return on the trade.

I also plan on adding an iron condor to the mix this week and potentially a bull put spread in one of the stocks we follow on our watch list. Some stocks, unlike most indexes, have seen a return of volatility, as reflected by their higher IV ranks, so there is a good chance we will pounce on one of those opportunities this week.

2024 got off to a somewhat rocky start as the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Dow lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 3.5%. And while the indexes fell there is rarely much to learn from the first week of the year as this week is often “wonky” as traders rotate from one sector to the next, and tax-related trading can move money out of recent winners.

2024 got off to a somewhat rocky start as the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Dow lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 3.5%. And while the indexes fell there is rarely much to learn from the first week of the year as this week is often “wonky” as traders rotate from one sector to the next, and tax-related trading can move money out of recent winners.

Although markets have stumbled a bit out of the gate, investors looking to see the S&P 500 build on the 11% advance in the final quarter of 2023 may not have long to wait. U.S. companies are due to start reporting results next week, with the big banks leading the way.

An election year like 2024 with a sitting president running is historically a bullish scenario for U.S. stocks. Since 1949, the S&P 500 is averaging a gain of nearly 13% in those election years, per the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

So let’s kick off the year by adding another aggressive growth stock.

January inflation came out. It wasn’t good. Is this rally doomed?

It has been a good year so far in the market. The S&P 500 is up about 8% and the Nasdaq has rallied more than 13% in just the first six weeks of this year. Stocks have been lifted by optimism of a soft landing.

For the first time that I can remember, I didn’t watch the Super Bowl. We had been skiing all weekend in New Hampshire, and I was EXHAUSTED. I think our entire household was asleep by 8 p.m. It sounded like an incredible game, but I’m not upset I missed it. An amazing night of sleep was worth it. Maybe that means I’m getting old?

A few weeks ago, we introduced the Gartner Hype Cycle, which traces the path that all tech companies follow in what essentially is an immutable law of tech investing. Currently, tech stocks have passed the Peak of Inflated Expectations and are sliding down to the Trough of Disillusionment. A few will ascend back to prosperity along the “Slope of Enlightenment” if they maintain both their relevance and their competitive edge. But most will lose one or both of these traits and thus continue downward in what could be labeled the “Decline into Oblivion.”

Stocks are bracing for the January inflation report, which comes out today. The number could determine the next thrust of the market.

It’s been a good year so far for stocks, despite the slight pullback last week, as investors embrace the notion of falling inflation and a Fed that will finish raising interest rates around midyear. But a bad inflation report could put the kibosh on that optimism and send stocks reeling.

This week, we comment on earnings from Adient (ADNT), Brookfield Re (BANR), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), Goodyear Tire (GT), Mattel (MAT), Newell Brands (NWL) and Western Union (WU).


Next week, Toshiba (TOSYY), TreeHouse Foods (THS), Conduent (CNDT), Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) and Organon (OGN) report earnings.

This week has been taking place in the shadow of last week’s market-moving events.

Of course, I’m talking about the FOMC meeting and the resulting 25bps hike, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference where the term “disinflation” reverberated around the conference room over and over. The event sent the market higher in a risk-on rally that extended the move from the day before.

Throughout U.S. history, federalists and states’ rights advocates have battled it out. Federalists believe in strong centralized power. The other side wants issues to get resolved locally. Federalists are usually on the left, and states’ rights advocates are normally conservatives. But not always. It depends on the issue.

The market is making some noise so far this year. And in a good way. The S&P 500 is 7.7% higher and the Nasdaq is up 14.7% YTD. Is this real, or just another head fake?


The rally is being prompted by increasing optimism of a soft landing, where inflation falls without the economy falling into recession. Previously pessimistic pundits are now embracing the possibility. And there is some evidence to back up the soft-landing scenario.

This week, we comment on earnings from Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Meta Platforms (META), M/I Homes (MHO), Polaris Industries (PII), Vodafone (VOD) and Western Digital (WDC).


Next week brings earnings from Western Union (WU), Mattel (MAT), Brookfield Re (BANR), Goodyear Tire (GT) and Newell Brands (NWL).

Montauk Renewables (MNTK) reported third-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday and they weren’t good – at least not compared to estimates.

Treace Medical (TMCI) delivered a Q3 beat after the bell yesterday with revenue of $33.1 million (+53%) beating estimates by $3.03 million and EPS of -$0.22 beating by $0.07.

I will be exiting the Disney (DIS) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our subscriber-exclusive webinar at noon ET Friday, November 11.

As discussed in our weekly issue this week, and on our weekly call last Friday, I will be taking a position in Disney (DIS) today. DIS is due to announce earnings after the closing bell today (November 8). The stock is currently trading for 99.95.

With the November 18, 2022 expiration cycle only 11 days away, we need to start rolling a few of our positions. I plan on rolling the majority of our November short calls this week. Expect to see two to three more alerts as the week progresses.

I will be exiting the Starbucks (SBUX) trade today.

We’ve had a few earnings reports lately that have been delivered under the cloud of the FOMC meeting and press conference (Wednesday). During that event, Fed Chair Powell opened the door to a slower pace of interest rate hikes starting in December but suggested the terminal rate (how high the Fed goes during this cycle) may be higher than previously expected and last for longer than previously expected.

Procept (PRCT) beat on the top line and missed on the bottom line. Revenue grew 135% to $20.3 million ($3.1 million beat) while EPS of -$0.51 missed by $0.03.

As discussed in our weekly issue, and on our weekly call, I will be taking a position in Starbucks (SBUX) today. SBUX is due to announce earnings after the closing bell today (November 3). The stock is currently trading for 85.26.

In today’s trade alert I want to start out by selling puts in PFE with the intent of eventually wheeling into the position. Here is a quick review of the wheeling process.

Of the many scenarios I considered for Enovix (ENVX) following Q3 earnings, seeing the stock down 40% was way down the list. Clearly the risks are relatively high with a stock like this – not unlike an early-stage biotech company – but so too are the potential rewards.

We’ve had TransMedics (TMDX) for just two months and the stock has traded up 45% - 50% in that time frame, with very little volatility.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.