We currently have two positions due to expire in December. My hope is to add at least one more December expiring position this week as our deltas are leaning far too negative for my liking, at least at the moment.

There isn’t much to discuss at the moment so I’m going to keep it short this week. We have several positions to due to expire each of the next three weeks. If all goes as planned, we should have the ability to lock in some really nice premium which should push our returns to new highs.

I expect to see a busy week this week with several key positions on our watch list due to announce earnings.

I expect to start the week with a trade in Home Depot (HD) which is due to announce prior to the opening bell tomorrow. The other announcement I’ll be focusing on is Walmart (WMT) which is due to announce prior to the opening bell on Thursday. I fully anticipate making trades around both announcements, as long as Mr. Market cooperates, so stay tuned for several trade alerts this week.

The latest market surge has left the All-Weather portfolio up a respectable 6.5%, with our poor man’s covered call in the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) continuing to do the heavy lifting, up 25.2%. The S&P 500 is up 5% over the same time frame.

Our SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) position has been resurgent of late. After being down roughly 20%, our poor man’s covered call position in GLD now sits 8% higher.

How quickly the market can change directions as one week we are on the verge of a steep decline, and the next week the indexes explode higher. This last week fell into the big winner camp as the S&P 500 gained 5.35%, the Dow rallied 5.07% and the Nasdaq added 6.61%.

While the market slid on Thursday, which put the recent rally in question, the bulls took the opportunity to buy that dip in a big way on Friday. When it was all said and done it was another strong week for the market as the S&P 500 gained 1.3%, the Dow rallied 0.65%, and the Nasdaq added 2.3%.

The markets had a very good week, and so far, we are also seeing momentum in the first couple of trading days this week. These upward moves have taken the Dow Jones Industrial Average to just about where we started at the beginning of 2023.

The market has been highly unpredictable over the last several years. Things are too uncertain to make bets on the current outlook. Timing the market and betting on sector rotation is a riverboat gamble. I’d rather bank on prevailing trends that will transcend short-term market gyrations.

There is a strong prevailing positive trend in the energy industry, particularly American energy.

Clean energy is the future, but not the near future. The world will continue to rely overwhelmingly on fossil fuels for at least the rest of this decade and probably much longer. But the world has underinvested in oil and gas exploration and production over the last decade and a half. Global supplies are straining to meet growing demand. The dynamic will last for some time.

Investors are realizing the value of companies and stocks in a sector that had been neglected for many years until recently. While commodity prices will go up and down based on several circumstances, energy companies should benefit over time going forward.

In this issue, I highlight the largest American oil refiner. The stock has been a stellar performer. And the company will continue to benefit from cheaper American oil and a reduced number of refineries.

Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.

This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the November 2023 issue.

We discuss recent earnings from our companies and move shares of Sensata Technologies (ST) from Buy to Hold given the company’s lower overall quality compared to our initial understanding.

We also include some thoughts on the current stock market and how rising interest rates and other factors have led investors to unload shares of most companies and riskier companies in particular.

We’ve been writing for a few weeks that many secondary indicators were near levels normally associated with the market lows, so if something actually went right in the world, the market could respond powerfully—and we’re optimistic that process is now underway as interest rates have fallen off and the market popped beautifully last week. In response we’re bumping up our Market Monitor ... but only to a level 5 at this point, as the intermediate-term trend still isn’t up. Long story short: We’re OK throwing a couple more lines in the water, but we want to see constructive action from here (tame pullbacks, more breakouts, etc.) before turning truly bullish.

This week’s list has charts in a few different places (some coming off the lows, some near new highs, etc.), but a ton of them reacted well to earnings and most should do well if the market follows through on its rally. Our Top Pick is a stock that, after many months of tedious action, appears to be ready to resume its major upmove.

Stocks had their first legitimately good week since July, thanks to declining bond yields, improving earnings and – surprise! – Jerome Powell. Can the market keep the momentum going? I’m betting yes, even if it’s not a straight line. Market bottoms frequently occur in October, and this year will be no exception. Therefore, today I’m adding more growth to the portfolio in the form of a mid-cap name that’s little known to the masses but is essentially the Google search engine for big corporations. It’s a new recommendation from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon.

Enjoy!

The financial media, observers and traders are focused almost exclusively on the path of the Fed’s interest rate tightening policy. How much will they raise rates at the next meeting? How about the meeting after that? Then what? What is the terminal rate (the highest rate of the cycle)? When will the Fed start reducing rates?

This week there were no earnings reports or ratings changes, so most of the note and podcast cover relevant news on our recommended companies.

Cabot Options Institute Quant Trader is focused exclusively on creating consistent returns using high-probability options strategies including bear call spreads, bull put spreads, iron condors and more. Whether you have questions about the strategies, or even about setting up your account, or how to make your own trades, Andy will answer all of your questions

Small-cap stocks continue to trade in the same 5% range that they’ve been in for the last month. On the S&P 600 Small Cap Index that translates to a range of 1,184 – 1,252. At the low end of that range we have the upward sloping 50-day line.

Cabot Options Institute Income Trader is focused exclusively on the creating consistent income through a variety of options selling strategies. Whether you have questions about selling puts, covered strangles, jade lizards or our income wheel approach, Andy is more than happy to help you steepen your learning curve in this live event.

Cannabis stocks are getting sold down as if the industry has no future.

This makes no sense, but there is a good explanation. Traders and investors bought the group heavily on expectations that cannabis sector banking reform would be passed in Congress by year’s end. The AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis (MSOS) exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw five to ten times normal volume on four days in early December, following two months of accumulation.

After good news on inflation, the market awaits the Fed’s rate decision and comments later today. It could lead to a rally or a fizzle.

Inflation for November was less than expected with CPI at 7.1% versus an expected 7.3% and core inflation at 6.0% versus an expected 6.1%. It’s welcome news that inflation is moving lower and has probably peaked, down from 9.1% in June. But it’s still a long way from the 2% Fed target.

There are only 13 trading days left in the calendar year. This means we are entering what is basically a reality distortion field … in which the closer we get to year’s end, the more that calendar-driven technical motivations, rather than valuations and fundamentals, drive share prices. These motivations create artificial selling pressure that can drive already-weak shares down even further.

This week there were no earnings reports or ratings changes, so most of the note and podcast cover relevant news on our recommended companies.

This is the week the market began to think bad economic news might just be bad for stocks, even if it’s “good” in the eyes of the Fed.

Good economic news continues to be interpreted as bad for stocks because it suggests the Fed has “more work to do.”

Stay cautious and alert. Growth stocks and the market took a hit earlier this week, though so far most potential leaders have held support and bounced back somewhat. Overall, not much has changed—our Cabot Tides are positive, and more names are acting properly, but the rest of our indicators are negative, and few stocks are moving higher with any consistency.

I will be exiting the JPMorgan (JPM) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our upcoming subscriber-exclusive webinar, at noon ET today (Friday).

JPM is due to announce earnings Friday (10/14) prior to the opening bell. The stock is currently trading for 108.50.

With a new Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities dropping tomorrow, tax loss harvesting season in full swing and a market swinging between being up and down significantly day to day (not to mention intra-day), we’re slashing a few positions today.

Back on October 7 intraday, I recommended selling our entire position in Tilray Brands (TLRY) at 3.47; our entire position in ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) at 5.48; $7,000 of Curaleaf (CURLF) at 6.33; and $7,000 of Green Thumb (GTBIF) at 13.35.

Before I get started I want to make clear that in my last alert I am selling the 97 call in IEF, not the 97.5. I am selling the 97 call for roughly $0.92. Sorry for any confusion.

The October expiration cycle comes to an end next week so it’s time to roll a few of our call positions that have little to no time premium left. I’ll be rolling several more positions over the next few days.

Our cannabis stocks rose nicely yesterday on news that President Biden has asked the Justice Department (DOJ) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to review marijuana’s federal scheduling status.

Today I want to add some bearish exposure to mix for the November expiration cycle. We currently have an iron condor and a bull put spread on for November. Now it’s time to balance out our deltas by adding a bear call spread.

Montauk Renewables (MNTK) has closed below our sell-stop of “around 16.50” two consecutive days, and we’re recommending selling the position today.

The market has a solid start to the week, and there were some intriguing breadth measures during the pop. But our market timing indicators are still clearly negative, and more important, we’re actually seeing growth stocks either not participate much on the upside—or start to crack on today’s selling. This bulletin concerns Enphase (ENPH), which has been a port in the storm but is decisively breaking down today; we’re cutting bait here and holding the cash.

We still have an IWM iron condor open for the October 21, 2022 expiration cycle that currently stands in profitable territory, but given that we are only 45 days away from the November 18, 2022 expiration cycle I want to begin the process of selling more premium.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.