Cabot Options Institute Quant Trader – Alert (SPY)
Today I want to add some bearish exposure to mix for the November expiration cycle. We currently have an iron condor and a bull put spread on for November. Now it’s time to balance out our deltas by adding a bear call spread.
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
With the SPY trading for 374.50 I want to place a short-term bear call spread going out 43 days. My intent is to take off the trade well before the November 18, 2022, expiration date.
IV Rank: 68.3Expected Move (Range): The expected move (range) for the November 18, 2022, expiration cycle is from 348 to 401.
Simultaneously:Sell to Open SPY November 18 2022, 412 call strike
Buy to Open SPY November 18, 2022, 416 call strike for a total of $0.43 (As always, the price of spread will vary, so please adjust accordingly.)
Delta of spread: 0.03
Probability of Profit: 89.44%
Probability of Touch: 21.32%
Total net credit: $0.43
Total risk per spread: $3.57
Max return: 12.0%
Since we know how much we stand to make and lose prior to order entry, we can precisely define our position size on every trade we place. Position size is the most important factor when managing risk, so keeping each trade at a reasonable level allows not only the Law of Large Numbers to work in your favor … it also allows you to sleep well at night.
I tend to set a stop-loss that sits 1 to 2 times my original credit. Since I’m selling the 412/416 bear call spread for roughly $0.43, if my bear call spread reaches $0.86 to $1.29 I will exit the trade. As always, I will keep you updated on the status of the position as it progresses and send any necessary updates as needed.