We took our first loss since early July and, admittedly, I thought we were in for a nice return. The five-day, snapback rally of 6%+ last week caught everyone off-guard. Yes, we all knew we were in short-term oversold territory, so a push higher was anticipated, but certainly not on the magnitude of 6%+.

At the time of the trade, with 21 days left until expiration, our probability of success on the trade was 86.76%.

Oh boy, if things hold at current levels, or even push back a tad, we are in store for some nice returns across the board. In fact, this could be one of our more profitable periods over the next few weeks.

I intend to add one more position to the mix this week, so be on the lookout for a trade alert or two coming your way early this week.

Sometimes the best trade is the one not placed. While we’ve seen a few slow earnings cycles for trading, we never want to force trades. As always, opportunities will pick up. Until then, I still expect, well hope, that we will have 6 to 7 trades under our belt before the earnings season is behind us in a few weeks. And this week is a slow one, with DIS and WYNN at the top of the list. But the following week, the last “big” week of earnings, brings on big retail as Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), among several others, report. The potential opportunities are there, it’s just a matter of what the market is giving us at the time and if it’s enough to meet our criteria.

How quickly the market can change directions as one week we are on the verge of a steep decline, and the next week the indexes explode higher. This last week fell into the big winner camp as the S&P 500 gained 5.35%, the Dow rallied 5.07% and the Nasdaq added 6.61%.

How quickly the market can change directions as one week we are on the verge of a steep decline, and the next week the indexes explode higher. This last week fell into the big winner camp as the S&P 500 gained 5.35%, the Dow rallied 5.07% and the Nasdaq added 6.61%.

Nothing has officially changed with our market timing indicators, so we remain in a very cautious stance, but the wear-you-out bear phase of the past couple of years (and the sharp declines of the past three months) has had many secondary indicators (breadth, sentiment, etc.) in high-reward positions, and this week’s strength is certainly intriguing. We’re not jumping the gun in any major way, but we are adding one half-sized position in a strong actor and have our antennae up to see if this rally can finally be the real deal.

In tonight’s issue, we review our remaining positions (most of which have popped nicely), our overall market thoughts (including some rays of light from our Two-Second Indicator) and go over many high-potential stocks should the bulls continue to press forward.

This month we’re adding a small company that specializes in the opaque and inefficient market for selling surplus and salvaged goods.

The company has a market cap of just $580 million and is growing revenue and EPS by double digits. It’s an interesting setup, especially as government agencies and corporations increasingly look to save money and achieve sustainability goals.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue.

The Federal Reserve yesterday maintained its benchmark interest rate while leaving the door open for further action as officials work to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. This makes sense, though markets are still a bit on edge as further increases are a possibility.

But today, we take a big swing with an aggressive stock that combines biotech with artificial intelligence - and is trading well off its highs.

Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.

This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.

There’s not much new to say when it comes to the market—just about all of the primary evidence remains bearish, and interest rates are still in a firm uptrend, too. There are a growing number of secondary measures that are flashing green, effectively saying a solid bounce (and maybe more) should be coming soon. Thus, we’re staying alert and keeping a list of resilient stocks and sectors, but at the risk of repeating ourselves, we have to see the buyers show up for more than a few hours to start thinking investor perception is truly changing for the better. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 4.

This week’s list has more than a few familiar names, including some initial earnings winners. Our Top Pick is a steady performer that also is showing great growth thanks to both of its top-selling brands—and the stock just emerged from nearly three months of chopping lower on its report. Try to buy on dips.

The indexes are hovering perilously above their May lows, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq entering correction territory (-10%) last week. And this week, we’ll hear from the Fed again (gulp), the October jobs report comes in, and we’re still in the heart of earnings season, with Apple (AAPL) being the headliner. Spooky season indeed!

To prepare for all scenarios, this week we’re selling out of a couple laggards and adding a well-known retailer that’s actually in an uptrend. Mike Cintolo recommended this retailer in Cabot Top Ten Trader last week, in fact.

Details inside.

There was little to no value left in the SPY 452/457 bear call spread, so we thought it was best to take our profits off the table and establish another bear call spread to protect our 408/403 bull put spread. One thing is certain: We will have to be nimble as we approach the November 17, 2023, expiration cycle. With only 18 days left until expiration, time decay is working in our favor. A short-term move to the upside, off oversold levels, should allow us to take our bull put spread off for a small profit. A rally should also “hopefully” lower implied volatility in SPY which should help our newly added bear call spread as well. As always, price action will be the final determinate.

Centrus Energy (LEU) shares retraced from 38 to 34 as three hedge funds were long Centrus in the third quarter, while six hedge funds were long the stock in the previous quarter. Their total stake values were $14.9 million and $14.7 million, respectively. This is still a buy for aggressive investors.

The market has started to stink up the place again because of better-than-expected economic news. I kid you not.

Strong jobs growth and continuing strength in pockets of the economy are spoiling recent investor optimism. Economic strength is not what the Fed wants to see in its battle against inflation. Strength in the economy indicates that perhaps the Fed will have to remain aggressive for longer to slow down the economy and snuff out inflation.

It’s been a rough week so far as investors are severely disappointed over the good economic news.

Strong jobs growth and continuing strength in pockets of the economy is spoiling recent investor optimism. Economic strength is not what the Fed wants to see in its battle against inflation. Strength in the economy indicates that perhaps the Fed will have to remain aggressive for longer to slow down the economy and snuff out inflation.

The big news last week was the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in almost eight months.

When the S&P 500 trades below its 200-day moving average for over six months and then breaks through that threshold, the S&P 500 is up 18.8% on average over the next 12 months.

This note includes the Catalyst Report, a summary of the December edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday, and earnings from Duluth Holdings (DLTH).

The recent market rally has leveled off and is wavering. The next few days may determine whether the market rally continues, or the indexes retreat once again.

The latest upturn has been stoked by optimism over retreating inflation and a softer, gentler Fed. The Central Bank is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate at a slower 0.50% pace, versus the last four hikes of 0.75%, at the December meeting in two weeks. But Chairman Powell is giving a speech today. Any indication of a higher-than-expected hike will undo the major reason for the recent rally.

Another event with consequences is the earnings report for recommended name Big Lots (BIG), scheduled for pre-market release on December 1.

The rally sputtered. But it hasn’t reversed. That’s because there are reasons for both optimism and caution.

There is a growing perception that the problems responsible for this bear market have peaked. Inflation has been receding and the Fed might be less aggressive going forward. The market tends to anticipate six to nine months into the future, and it sees lower inflation and the Fed done hiking rates.

The market performed well during the holiday-shortened week.

The S&P 500 is brushing up against its 200-day moving average, and if I had to guess, I would expect it to reverse from here.

While I’m not a technical analyst I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some weakness, similar to what happened in August after the index brushed the 200-day moving average.

Yesterday I suggested adding $40,000 of our cash to AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) with a buy limit of 11.45.

I’m an optimist. That quality has served investors well for decades. There are many stocks at cheap prices that will likely be a lot higher in a year or two as a new bull market will emerge. But I don’t believe that the market is on its way to the Promise Land just yet.

The market boomed today after a tamer-than-expected inflation report, with the Dow exploding higher by nearly 1,200 points (3.7%) and the Nasdaq surging 761 points (7.3%).

Today, given the extreme oversold readings we are coming off of from last week, I’m going to open a position in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), more specifically a bull put spread. I’m giving myself over a 10% margin of error on the trade. I also intend on adding several more positions for the November expiration cycle over the coming days.

The market’s meltdown continues, with the buyers completely on the sideline as just about every stock and sector cracks. The Model Portfolio is already in a highly defensive stance (72% cash coming into today), so we’re not craving more cash, but we’re also not simply going to hold onto things as they melt away.

As part of the Income Wheel approach, we allowed our Coca-Cola (KO) puts to expire in-the-money at expiration last week. As a result, we were issued shares at our chosen put strike of 60.

With the market pulling back again today, our IWM iron condor is nearing our short put strike of 163. We’ve had a good start, with the Quant Trader service outperforming the market by a significant margin.

With the market continuing to have indigestion following the Fed’s 75bps rate hike and higher-for-longer messaging (regarding interest rates), we’re going to trim our position in Toast (TOST) today to reduce the risk of things getting away from us.

Before I get to our PFE trade, I wanted to let everyone know that, per our income cycle guidelines, we will allow our KO puts and WFC puts to expire today (unless we see a rally today). This means that on Monday we will be put shares of both stocks and begin the process of selling calls on both.

Like in our last alert for the All-Weather portfolio, we need to keep our deltas at reasonable levels, and with the recent pullback, we are a bit longer than we would like to be at the moment. Much of the premium has been taken out of our October expiration positions and with 29 days left in the October cycle, we still have plenty of time to add to our premium totals in October by selling more premium today.

We currently own the IEF January 19, 2024, 85 call LEAPS contract at $19.00. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.

In last week’s issue of Cabot Stock of the Month, I introduced you to a new section of the newsletter—ETF Strategies, which combines the portfolios and strategies of the former Cabot ETF Strategist newsletter.

I also created Risk Tolerance classifications: A for Aggressive, M for Moderate, and C for Conservative, for both ETF Strategies and the investments in the Cabot Stock of the Month portfolio.

We’ve had TransMedics (TMDX) for just two months and the stock has traded up 45% - 50% in that time frame, with very little volatility.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.