Issues
We continue to get solid signals from the White House that cannabis rescheduling is on track. That’ll be a significant catalyst for cannabis stocks. The only question is the timing. That remains uncertain and probably unknowable. Cannabis stocks remain a buy on weakness ahead of this catalyst.
The background here is that last December, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Justice Department to move cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act.
The background here is that last December, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Justice Department to move cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act.
The bull market has broadened out beyond technology in a big way. While the S&P 500 is about even for the year so far, most market sectors are beating the index, and by a lot. In fact, six of the eleven sectors have a better than 8% YTD return, not even two months into the year.
The new market dynamic is having a profound impact on the portfolio. Several stocks that had been dead weight in the portfolio have soared in recent months to 52-week highs. The new market has turned previously underperforming stocks into strong income generators.
It has been a strong run for several portfolio stocks. But a largely successful earnings season is almost over. That means there will be no obvious catalyst to continue driving stocks higher, at least for now. The situation makes it a better time to capitalize on recent price surges instead of adding more positions and hoping for more.
Under the current circumstances, the biggest market opportunity right now is income. In this issue, I highlight three more high-priced covered calls on stocks that have had strong rallies.
The new market dynamic is having a profound impact on the portfolio. Several stocks that had been dead weight in the portfolio have soared in recent months to 52-week highs. The new market has turned previously underperforming stocks into strong income generators.
It has been a strong run for several portfolio stocks. But a largely successful earnings season is almost over. That means there will be no obvious catalyst to continue driving stocks higher, at least for now. The situation makes it a better time to capitalize on recent price surges instead of adding more positions and hoping for more.
Under the current circumstances, the biggest market opportunity right now is income. In this issue, I highlight three more high-priced covered calls on stocks that have had strong rallies.
In researching potential candidates for this month’s edition of the newsletter, I narrowed down my final list of top choices to the usual 10 stocks. What caught my attention when reviewing the list, however, was how many of them were in the healthcare sector—in particular, the therapeutic arena.
I was gratified by this discovery since I feel that a.) medical stocks are underrepresented in the portfolio, and b.) the sector is at once defensive in nature (always a good thing in my estimation) yet also poised to benefit from ongoing sector rotation.
I was gratified by this discovery since I feel that a.) medical stocks are underrepresented in the portfolio, and b.) the sector is at once defensive in nature (always a good thing in my estimation) yet also poised to benefit from ongoing sector rotation.
Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea, I need to address two items.
First, we are going to sell our RKT stock as the February call that we sold expired worthless, leaving us with our stock position.
First, we are going to sell our RKT stock as the February call that we sold expired worthless, leaving us with our stock position.
It remains about as mixed an environment as we can remember, which does mean the risk of some sort of convulsion (a correction, a re-rotation into laggards, etc.) is elevated. That said, as opposed to the on-again, off-again action from certain areas in January, we have seen the winners persist of late, so that’s where we’re focusing—while also holding some cash and raising stops along the way given what’s going on. For the moment, we’ll stick with a level 6 on the Market Monitor, but again, we’re OK taking swings at strong stocks.
This week’s list is very heavy on the cyclical side of things, with many names perking up and out of long ranges. Our Top Pick has a solid growth profile and has emerged on the upside after a six-month choppy phase.
This week’s list is very heavy on the cyclical side of things, with many names perking up and out of long ranges. Our Top Pick has a solid growth profile and has emerged on the upside after a six-month choppy phase.
Tariffs rejected. Big shortfall in GDP growth. Possible emerging conflict with Iran. There were enough headlines last week – and really, Friday alone! – to make your head spin. And yet … stocks were mostly calm, with no sudden movements in either direction. As always, the stock charts matter more than the headlines, at least when it comes to investing.
So, let’s stay the course, which this week means adding a well-known stock that continues to thrive in the midst of the ongoing travel resurgence. It was Mike Cintolo’s Top Pick in his Cabot Top Ten Trader momentum-trading advisory last week.
Details inside.
So, let’s stay the course, which this week means adding a well-known stock that continues to thrive in the midst of the ongoing travel resurgence. It was Mike Cintolo’s Top Pick in his Cabot Top Ten Trader momentum-trading advisory last week.
Details inside.
Despite early-week angst over continued AI disruption fears, markets steadied into the weekend as tech found fresh legs and headline risk eased after a key Supreme Court ruling altered the U.S. tariff landscape. The rebound in mega-cap names helped sentiment improve off midweek lows, though small caps lagged. For the week, the S&P 500 rallied 1.1%, the Dow advanced 0.3%, and the Nasdaq led with a gain of 1.5%, while the Russell 2000 was essentially flat.
Despite early-week angst over continued AI disruption fears, markets steadied into the weekend as tech found fresh legs and headline risk eased after a key Supreme Court ruling altered the U.S. tariff landscape. The rebound in mega-cap names helped sentiment improve off midweek lows, though small caps lagged. For the week, the S&P 500 rallied 1.1%, the Dow advanced 0.3%, and the Nasdaq led with a gain of 1.5%, while the Russell 2000 was essentially flat.
It’s not 1999 out there, but the Model Portfolio has been doing OK despite the choppy, challenging, crosscurrent-filled market of late, partially thanks to an interesting dynamic—while the top-down evidence really hasn’t changed much in recent weeks (if anything, it’s probably worsened a bit, especially when it comes to growth funds and our Aggression Index), we are definitely seeing more individual stocks perk up, both within AI and in cyclical areas.
We do have two or three moves we’re close to making—while we’re not eager to be heavily invested given the evidence, we have a lot of cash and are likely to put some to work soon. But, tonight, we’ll stand pat and see if opportunities arise in the next few days—while also seeing if the Nasdaq’s test of its recent low holds. Bottom line, stand pat here, but we’ll be in touch with any changes in the days ahead.
We do have two or three moves we’re close to making—while we’re not eager to be heavily invested given the evidence, we have a lot of cash and are likely to put some to work soon. But, tonight, we’ll stand pat and see if opportunities arise in the next few days—while also seeing if the Nasdaq’s test of its recent low holds. Bottom line, stand pat here, but we’ll be in touch with any changes in the days ahead.
With the market’s rotation into energy, industrial and other “unloved” stocks continuing well into 2026, we’re leaning deeper into the trends.
This month’s issue focuses on yet another specialty industrial player, an under-the-radar biofuel story, and an energy name with exposure to strong, international markets.
As always, the goal is to stay aligned with what’s working.
Enjoy!
This month’s issue focuses on yet another specialty industrial player, an under-the-radar biofuel story, and an energy name with exposure to strong, international markets.
As always, the goal is to stay aligned with what’s working.
Enjoy!
Despite a small bounce Friday on softer inflation data that eased some knee-jerk selling, markets finished on their back foot as renewed investor anxiety around artificial-intelligence disruption rippled through tech and cyclical stocks. Growth names lagged, pressure widened beyond software to financials and real estate, and defensive sectors outperformed amid falling Treasury yields that weren’t enough to stem the slide. By week’s end, the S&P 500 had fallen 1.4%, the Dow Jones had lost 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite had tumbled 2.1%.
Although the S&P is currently down around 2% from a week ago, new highs on both exchanges have been encouraging lately. This underscores that a broad array of industries have held firm despite softness in the tech space. Understandably, in this mixed environment, cyclical names are outperforming as traders hedge against possible AI sector weakness, with utilities, consumer staples and healthcare names acting well, but there has also been solid participation from highly economically sensitive areas of the market like transport, discretionary retail and hotel/lodging stocks. Not surprisingly, many of the names in this issue are scattered across these categories. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 6, but we’re still fine nabbing some shares in some of the stronger names out there.
This week’s list contains a nice mix of names across several of the stronger industries—including both defensive and cyclical. Our Top Pick is a water transport name benefiting from a robust start to the annual cruise season.
This week’s list contains a nice mix of names across several of the stronger industries—including both defensive and cyclical. Our Top Pick is a water transport name benefiting from a robust start to the annual cruise season.
Updates
The long-awaited promise of inflation’s “impending” demise remains as distant as ever entering 2026.
Economists have been assuring us since at least 2023 that inflation is abating. But far from this, what we’re actually seeing is a weakening dollar that’s putting ever-more upward pressure on prices across several asset categories.
Economists have been assuring us since at least 2023 that inflation is abating. But far from this, what we’re actually seeing is a weakening dollar that’s putting ever-more upward pressure on prices across several asset categories.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious. We have seen a couple of rays of light among the growth arena of late, though today’s wobbles (both in the market and in many stocks still being rejected at key levels) keep our growth measures pointed sideways to down. We’d like to put some money to work (both in some current holdings and some new names), and we could do so in the very near future if today ends up being the final shakeout to the Nasdaq’s three-month consolidation. But with the sell-on-strength pattern still with us for growth stocks, we’ll stand pat for the moment and look to see if more growth names can break free of the up-and-down action.
The S&P 500 walked higher for much of this week while small caps slipped from their recent highs.
We might get back to the pattern that existed in the first three weeks of the year (i.e., small caps outperforming) given weakness in some mega-cap names (i.e., TSLA and MSFT) after reporting and a little breather in small-cap strength.
We might get back to the pattern that existed in the first three weeks of the year (i.e., small caps outperforming) given weakness in some mega-cap names (i.e., TSLA and MSFT) after reporting and a little breather in small-cap strength.
After a brief tariff scare early last week, stocks resumed their regularly scheduled uptrend. All told, the stock market is doing just fine, with the major indexes touching new record highs. But certain sectors are doing more than fine.
Sector rotation is in full swing, with investors piling into some of last year’s most unloved sectors to kick off 2026. While technology continues to wallow, up less than 1% year to date and having topped right around Halloween three months ago, the following sectors have picked up the slack...
Sector rotation is in full swing, with investors piling into some of last year’s most unloved sectors to kick off 2026. While technology continues to wallow, up less than 1% year to date and having topped right around Halloween three months ago, the following sectors have picked up the slack...
Several stock sectors are killing it while the overall market sort of languishes.
The S&P 500 is doing OK so far this year. It’s up about 1.5%. Of course, the index really hasn’t advanced much at all since late October. That’s because technology has been struggling. Those stocks have a huge weight on the S&P and are a major determinant of index returns. But a major story is developing beyond the index averages.
The S&P 500 is doing OK so far this year. It’s up about 1.5%. Of course, the index really hasn’t advanced much at all since late October. That’s because technology has been struggling. Those stocks have a huge weight on the S&P and are a major determinant of index returns. But a major story is developing beyond the index averages.
The last couple of years haven’t exactly been kind on food, beverage and restaurant stocks. Generally speaking, the companies in the food and drinks category underperformed the S&P 500 last year, while in the case of restaurants, 2025 was a particularly bad one.
There’s been plenty of drama over the last week, but small caps don’t seem to care. Both the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000 are making new all-time highs.
FactSet reported this morning that the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 Index every session this year. That’s impressive. Let’s look more closely at the S&P 600 Index because I have sector data for it. Impressively, through mid-day Thursday, every small-cap sector is outperforming its large-cap counterpart YTD. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+14.4%), energy (+13.4%), industrials (+12.3%), and tech (+11.7%). The weakest, utilities, financials and healthcare, are all up in the 4.4% to 5.3% range.
As a whole, the S&P 600 is up 9.2% while the S&P 500 is up just 1.2% YTD.
FactSet reported this morning that the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 Index every session this year. That’s impressive. Let’s look more closely at the S&P 600 Index because I have sector data for it. Impressively, through mid-day Thursday, every small-cap sector is outperforming its large-cap counterpart YTD. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+14.4%), energy (+13.4%), industrials (+12.3%), and tech (+11.7%). The weakest, utilities, financials and healthcare, are all up in the 4.4% to 5.3% range.
As a whole, the S&P 600 is up 9.2% while the S&P 500 is up just 1.2% YTD.
Let’s begin in Davos, Switzerland where the world’s financial and political bigwigs are gathering at the World Economic Forum to do deals and await the fate of Greenland. Markets rebounded yesterday as President Trump softened his position on Greenland a bit, thus raising hopes of reaching an amicable agreement.
Gold was a hot topic as investors continue to seek a hedge on uncertainty. Central banks have been significant net buyers of gold every year since 2011.
Gold was a hot topic as investors continue to seek a hedge on uncertainty. Central banks have been significant net buyers of gold every year since 2011.
Tariffs are back in the news. And the stock market doesn’t like it.
Investors shrug off a lot of things these days – geopolitical turmoil (lots of it), flagging jobs growth, a record-long government shutdown, wars, etc. But tariffs, and tariff threats, are still a four-letter word on Wall Street. So it was no surprise that stocks had their worst day of the young year on Tuesday after President Trump threatened high tariffs on Europe over the Greenland situation, and European leaders responded in kind.
Perhaps the whole kerfuffle will be settled over a catered lunch at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. Or maybe tensions will escalate further. Either way, this feels like a pivotal week for stocks.
Investors shrug off a lot of things these days – geopolitical turmoil (lots of it), flagging jobs growth, a record-long government shutdown, wars, etc. But tariffs, and tariff threats, are still a four-letter word on Wall Street. So it was no surprise that stocks had their worst day of the young year on Tuesday after President Trump threatened high tariffs on Europe over the Greenland situation, and European leaders responded in kind.
Perhaps the whole kerfuffle will be settled over a catered lunch at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. Or maybe tensions will escalate further. Either way, this feels like a pivotal week for stocks.
The broadening market rally has been usurped by the return of tariffs, at least for now.
The market is unnerved to start this week after President Trump threatened the European Union (EU) with additional tariffs and the EU is threatening retaliatory measures. The issue caught investors by surprise and is threatening to derail the ascending market.
The market is unnerved to start this week after President Trump threatened the European Union (EU) with additional tariffs and the EU is threatening retaliatory measures. The issue caught investors by surprise and is threatening to derail the ascending market.
It’s been a good start to the year so far with the S&P up 1.38%. But the bigger story is under the hood.
Most sectors are outperforming the S&P 500. Seven of the eleven S&P stock sectors are outperforming the index in January. And none of them are technology. This is in sharp contrast to performance through most of this bull market, with technology driving the market higher while most other stocks sputter around.
Most sectors are outperforming the S&P 500. Seven of the eleven S&P stock sectors are outperforming the index in January. And none of them are technology. This is in sharp contrast to performance through most of this bull market, with technology driving the market higher while most other stocks sputter around.
It’s a thorny subject, but one that I think merits at least a brief discussion: direct government intervention as it pertains to the private defense sector—and by extension, to our holding in GE Aerospace (GE).
On January 7, the White House issued an executive order (EO) that prohibited defense companies from making share repurchases and paying dividends to shareholders. It also placed restrictions on executive compensation, except for companies making investments to modernize weapons production facilities.
On January 7, the White House issued an executive order (EO) that prohibited defense companies from making share repurchases and paying dividends to shareholders. It also placed restrictions on executive compensation, except for companies making investments to modernize weapons production facilities.
Alerts
Natural Grocers (NGVC) delivered a Q4 FY25 report and guidance for next year that “should” be good enough to stabilize the stock and get it moving higher again. That said, we have a half-sized position, and if shares don’t stabilize here (KR and SFM have recently done so), then we’re more likely to exit the position than fill the other half. Next week will be important for NGVC.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Despite the indexes holding up today, lots of growth stocks are again coming under pressure, continuing a wave of late-week distribution. We’re already holding a lot of cash, but today we’re selling one more position—Vertiv (VRT), which had been trying to hold up but the late-week selling pressure has been too much, cracking the stock. We’ll sell our half-sized position and hold the cash, leaving us with around two-thirds on the sideline in the Model Portfolio.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
Sell Warrior Met Coal (HCC). Buy Second Half of Life360 (LIF)
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, as we continue to see some tempting names but also more than a few that are hitting potholes, as well as rotation into safe areas. Yesterday, we sold Life360 (LIF) after that stock fell apart on earnings—and now we’re going to sell our half-sized stake in AppLovin (APP), with Friday’s and Monday’s encouraging action going up in smoke since. That will leave us with a high-50% cash position, which is a lot; if the market stabilizes, we’ll probably start a couple of new positions, but for the moment we’ll sit with that cash and see how things play out.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market has bounced back decently, though our market timing indicators are still looking iffy for now. Today’s bulletin is about Life360 (LIF), which is falling hard today despite a solid quarterly report. Given the abnormal action, we’re forced to sell and take what’s left of our profit. Our cash position will now be around 50%.
Karman Holding (KRMN) got whacked this morning after reporting a mixed quarter but has climbed back somewhat through the early afternoon. We’re standing by it, for now.
Portfolios
Strategy
Here’s a refresher on what qualities help a stock pass our Individualized Retirement Income System tests for inclusion in the Cabot Dividend Investor portfolio.
We take a look at some of the major rotations of the past year, and how, when—or if—they were resolved.
What does risk tolerance really mean, and how can you figure out what yours is?
If you’re a typical Cabot growth investor, you like to own stocks of fast-growing companies ... the kind that go up fast and come down fast. The ride up with these stocks is wonderful. But the ride down can be shocking. Stocks like these can easily fall 40%, 50% or more in a prolonged market decline, destroying the value of your portfolio.
Using Options to Hedge a Portfolio
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
I want to clarify a few things about our Hold and Buy ratings.
This guide will help you execute the three types of options strategies recommended in Cabot Options Trader: Buying puts and calls, covered call writing and spreads.
This guide will help you execute the options strategies recommended in Cabot Options Trader.
Guide to Options Trading — Pro Version