Issues
After an ugly day October 10, the major indexes showed solid overall support last week, but under the hood was another round of volatile action, The market’s intermediate-term trend continues to tilt up, though we’re still taking things on a stock-by-stock basis and are closely watching earnings season, which is about to rev up. In the meantime, we’re just following the plan that’s been working for us: Being selective on the buy side, holding strong names (albeit with some partial profits on the way up) and also raising stops as time passes. We’ll again stick with a level 7 on the Market Monitor.
This week’s list is a mixed bag in terms of sectors and setups, with some we’re considering entering on strength and others on pullbacks. Our Top Pick is likely in for years of accelerating growth, and after a big run into early October, the recent pullback looks normal. We’re OK starting small here or on a bit more weakness.
This week’s list is a mixed bag in terms of sectors and setups, with some we’re considering entering on strength and others on pullbacks. Our Top Pick is likely in for years of accelerating growth, and after a big run into early October, the recent pullback looks normal. We’re OK starting small here or on a bit more weakness.
Stocks proved their resilience once again, shaking off the U.S.-China tariff re-escalation fears and creeping back toward their early-October highs. An encouraging start to third-quarter earnings season helped, but that was mostly the banks. The real test will come in the next couple weeks, when most of the big tech companies report. So it’s still choppy waters out there. With that in mind, today we add another fairly low-risk play to the Stock of the Week portfolio in the form of a healthcare REIT that offers a decent yield. It’s a stock Tom Hutchinson just recommended to his Cabot Dividend Investor audience.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Coming off a nasty close for the market the previous week, the indexes rebounded this last week as the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Dow added 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rallied 2.1%.
Coming off a nasty close for the market the previous week, the indexes rebounded this last week as the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Dow added 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rallied 2.1%.
The market is taken another shot across its bow, with the indexes bending, with many leaders getting dented and with our Two-Second Indicator still negative. That said, while bending, things haven’t broken, with our Cabot Tides still positive and most leaders refusing to crack. We’re not complacent, as we’re holding our 30% in cash and placing three stocks on Hold--but we’re also not running for the storm cellar, as earnings season is likely to determine the next big move in the market and leaders.
The market has hit a little turbulence as we wade into the early innings of the Q3 earnings season. But despite the bumps, there are more than enough stocks acting well enough to fill the pages of the October Issue.
This month, I continue to spread things around, exploring new ideas from the Fintech, software and coal (yes, coal!) industries while plucking two steady performers from our Watch List to add to the portfolio.
Enjoy!
This month, I continue to spread things around, exploring new ideas from the Fintech, software and coal (yes, coal!) industries while plucking two steady performers from our Watch List to add to the portfolio.
Enjoy!
What started as a good week for the bulls was quickly vanquished by renewed U.S./China trade fears last week. How long these worries will again weigh on the market is anyone’s guess. However, Friday’s ugly selloff was enough to send the S&P 500 lower by 2.4% on the week, while the Dow fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%. Monday’s encouraging bounce-back erased some of those gains, however. We’ll see where it goes from here.
There have been a few shots across the bow in recent weeks, and last week was another, with Friday’s big selloff hitting just about everything, though today’s bounce took some sting out of that. Overall, after six months with hardly any pullbacks, the market could easily be ready for a “real” correction—however, anticipating such a decline isn’t advised. Don’t get us wrong, our antennae are up and we continue to advise being selective, but we’re mostly focused on the next few days: A strong bounce in leaders and the indexes would be positive, but a break of last week’s lows would likely usher in a volatile, corrective period. For now, with most of the evidence unchanged, our Market Monitor remains at a Level 7.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though it’s again full of more growth-y titles. Our Top Pick is part of a newly strong group, and whose stock actually rebounded to a new high today.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though it’s again full of more growth-y titles. Our Top Pick is part of a newly strong group, and whose stock actually rebounded to a new high today.
Stocks hit another pothole this week after President Trump re-escalated tariff rhetoric against China last Friday, which genuinely spooked the market for the first time in months. He has since walked back some of those comments, and the market is rebounding in an encouraging way today. But the U.S.-China trade war is definitely back in the news, so today we aim to steer clear of it by adding a new position in something that’s a little outside our normal sandbox: a foreign currency. More specifically, it’s a fund that offers exposure to a well-known European currency, and it’s up more than 12% year to date – with more potential upside ahead. The fund was recently recommended by Carl Delfeld to his Cabot Explorer audience.
Details inside.
Details inside.
What started as a good week for the bulls was quickly vanquished by renewed U.S./China trade fears. How long these worries will again weigh on the market is anyone’s guess. However, Friday’s ugly selloff was enough to send the S&P 500 lower by 2.4% on the week, while the Dow fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%.
What started as a good week for the bulls was quickly vanquished by renewed U.S./China trade fears. How long these worries will again weigh on the market is anyone’s guess. However, Friday’s ugly selloff was enough to send the S&P 500 lower by 2.4% on the week, while the Dow fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%.
The markets don’t seem too swayed by the government shutdown, as they continue to remain near all-time highs.
Economically speaking, we’re not getting some reports, like inflation or unemployment, due to the shutdown. But manufacturing seems to be holding up; real estate prices continue to moderate (up 1.8%); existing home sales were down 0.2%; and consumer confidence dipped a bit. Not much to rattle the markets.
Economically speaking, we’re not getting some reports, like inflation or unemployment, due to the shutdown. But manufacturing seems to be holding up; real estate prices continue to moderate (up 1.8%); existing home sales were down 0.2%; and consumer confidence dipped a bit. Not much to rattle the markets.
Updates
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Centuri Holdings (CTRI), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC) and Paramount Global (PARA).
GE Aerospace (GE) stands to benefit from the recent legal challenge to the White House’s tariffs.
GE Aerospace (GE) stands to benefit from the recent legal challenge to the White House’s tariffs.
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index popped right back up this week after selling off and landing on its intersecting 50- and 25-day moving average lines last Friday.
Despite the holiday-shortened week, it feels like a lot has happened at the macro level since last Thursday’s update.
Despite the holiday-shortened week, it feels like a lot has happened at the macro level since last Thursday’s update.
Closely watched Nvidia (NVDA) reported its first-quarter earnings yesterday, beating expectations nicely on revenue despite restrictions on shipments of its H20 chips to China. The company posted revenue of $44.1 billion, up 69% from a year ago, but Nvidia expects to miss out on roughly $8 billion in sales of H20s to China in the second quarter.
Wall Street analysts expect stocks to be flat for the rest of the year. That’s according to a new Reuters poll, which surveyed 51 strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers. Among them, the average year-end target for the S&P 500 was 5,900 – roughly in line with the current price, and essentially unmoved since the start of the year.
That’s not exactly exciting news, even if 5,900 would have felt like a win in early April, when the benchmark index dipped below 5,000 after President Trump’s now-infamous “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement. The rally since then has been impressive, but analysts aren’t confident we’ll get much more movement through the final seven months of the year.
That’s not exactly exciting news, even if 5,900 would have felt like a win in early April, when the benchmark index dipped below 5,000 after President Trump’s now-infamous “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement. The rally since then has been impressive, but analysts aren’t confident we’ll get much more movement through the final seven months of the year.
The market is looking good. Sure, it pulled back last week. But not by much. After the huge spike it had, the lack of a more significant pullback is encouraging. Stocks also started this week with a big up day on Tuesday.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Centuri Holdings (CTRI), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC), Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Paramount Global (PARA).
Intel (INTC) is reportedly mulling a sales of its network and edge businesses as part of an ongoing focus on streamlining the company.
Pan American Silver (PAAS) stands to benefit from recent gold-to-silver ratio readings.
Intel (INTC) is reportedly mulling a sales of its network and edge businesses as part of an ongoing focus on streamlining the company.
Pan American Silver (PAAS) stands to benefit from recent gold-to-silver ratio readings.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market has pulled back a bit this week after a big recent run, but most things have taken the selling in stride. Further weakness can’t be ruled out, especially in the near-term but with the market digesting well and our intermediate-term indicators looking good, we have a few moves tonight. First, we’re going to sell our small position in Flutter (FLUT), but we’re also adding half-sized positions in Axon Enterprise (AXON) and ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO), the latter of which we’re averaging up in. We’re also placing Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) on Hold. Our cash position will still be around 47% after these moves.
The news cycle moves fast these days, as does the market’s reaction.
Last week, the big news was the 90-day ceasefire in the U.S. vs. China trade war. This week, it’s the passing of the reconciliation bill in the House and concerns over the deficit (the two are not unrelated).
Last week, the big news was the 90-day ceasefire in the U.S. vs. China trade war. This week, it’s the passing of the reconciliation bill in the House and concerns over the deficit (the two are not unrelated).
Retail stocks are having a rough year.
The S&P SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) is down 3.8% year to date, and consumer discretionary as a whole has been the worst performing of the 11 major S&P sectors. It makes sense. Tariffs threaten to hit U.S. retailers hardest, including the many companies that sell products like toys, child car seats, and sports apparel (such as our own Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)), most of which are made in places like China, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand – the places with the highest potential tariff rates. Combine that with escalating fears of a U.S. recession – also brought on by tariffs – and it could be a double whammy for retailers who don’t sell the essential everyday items that consumers buy regardless of the economic environment.
The S&P SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) is down 3.8% year to date, and consumer discretionary as a whole has been the worst performing of the 11 major S&P sectors. It makes sense. Tariffs threaten to hit U.S. retailers hardest, including the many companies that sell products like toys, child car seats, and sports apparel (such as our own Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)), most of which are made in places like China, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand – the places with the highest potential tariff rates. Combine that with escalating fears of a U.S. recession – also brought on by tariffs – and it could be a double whammy for retailers who don’t sell the essential everyday items that consumers buy regardless of the economic environment.
Last week was another up week for the S&P 500. The index has made up all the tariff Armageddon losses, it’s in positive territory YTD and is within 3% of the all-time high.
The market is flat so far this week. But after the big surge higher, it’s encouraging that the index isn’t pulling back. Perhaps stocks are consolidating a bit ahead of another move higher.
The market is flat so far this week. But after the big surge higher, it’s encouraging that the index isn’t pulling back. Perhaps stocks are consolidating a bit ahead of another move higher.
Last week was another up week for the S&P 500. The index has made up all the losses since April and is now in positive territory for the year.
After a multi-month barrage of relentlessly negative headlines, the S&P is within 3% of the all-time high. Seven of the eleven market sectors are higher YTD, and two of the negative sectors are down less than 1% for the year so far.
After a multi-month barrage of relentlessly negative headlines, the S&P is within 3% of the all-time high. Seven of the eleven market sectors are higher YTD, and two of the negative sectors are down less than 1% for the year so far.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alcoa (AA), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Dollar Tree (DLTR), GE Aerospace (GE), Intel (INTC), Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Toast Inc. (TOST).
Intel’s prospects hinge on the success of its 18A process node, which has the potential to be a major catalyst for its turnaround.
Intel’s prospects hinge on the success of its 18A process node, which has the potential to be a major catalyst for its turnaround.
Alerts
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
We continue to get positive signals out of Washington, D.C. for cannabis companies.
Last evening Zeta (ZETA) responded to the Culper Research short report with a scathing review of the allegations, saying, in short, that Culper is full of it and doesn’t know what the heck it’s talking about. It couldn’t even get Zeta’s auditor right. Link to the press release here.
I moved Zeta (ZETA) to buy this morning given the rather extreme selloff after earnings. Not long after that alert went out, a short seller by the name of Culper Research issued a short report on Zeta. | By far the most questions I’m getting right now are about Zeta (ZETA). You read my update yesterday, and it was bullish. Analysts increased price targets from the mid-30s into the low 40s, with some going up to 50.
I’m recommending that we sell our position in Solventum (SOLV). I’m recommending that we sell our position in Baxter International (BAX).
Cannabis stocks on Monday traded as if president-elect Donald Trump has abandoned his marijuana reform policies.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.