October 16, 2025
CSX (CSX) Earnings Preview
CSX will report earnings today after the market close. Headed into the event, we are holding the final piece of our trade, having taken partial profits of 26% and 70% in the last several months.
I am going to hold my position through the event, as the stock is once again approaching its recent highs and option activity remains strong.
And while I am going to hold my trade through earnings, if you would prefer to not take that risk, you can close the last piece of your trade for a potential profit of approximately 55% today.
CSX - With the stock trading at 36.5, the options market is pricing in a move of $1.75 this week, or 34.75 to the downside and 38.25 to the upside.
Open interest is skewed bullish on a ratio of 2.8:1 call vs. put.
Skew is pricing in typical downside risks and upside interest.
October 14, 2025
Stock on Watch – Pinterest (PINS)
Pinterest (PINS) stock has gone mostly nowhere the last several years, even as the market and growth stocks have raced higher. And while the stock looks “bleh” at best, in the last two days, option activity has ramped higher, including these trades:
Yesterday - Buyer of 40,000 Pinterest (PINS) November 40 Calls for $0.58 – Stock at 32
Yesterday - Buyer of 23,000 Pinterest (PINS) November 35 Calls for $1.48 – Stock at 32
Today - Buyer of 2,000 Pinterest (PINS) October 39 Calls (exp. 10/31) for $0.40 – Stock at 33.3
Today - Buyer of 15,000 Pinterest (PINS) November 35 Calls for $2.40 – Stock at 33.3
This big call buying is certainly interesting, and while I don’t love “dumpster diving,” should this wildly bullish option activity continue and the market strengthens (S&P down 0.75% in early trade), we could get involved with PINS via a longer-term call buy.
October 13, 2025
Weekly Update
What started as a good week for the bulls was quickly vanquished by renewed U.S./China trade fears. How long these worries will again weigh on the market is anyone’s guess. However, Friday’s ugly selloff was enough to send the S&P 500 lower by 2.4% on the week, while the Dow fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.5%.
What Traders Are Saying and Stocks on Watch
It’s funny how markets work. Early last week, as the market was mostly moving higher, I thought to myself, “This market is handling bad news really well.”
Those bad news items that could have hit the market the last several weeks included …
In recent weeks, there were two auto sector bankruptcies (First Brands and Tricolor), which were affecting the credit markets. And while talking heads on CNBC and The Wall Street Journal were noting these issues, the market just kept moving higher.
Next came the government shutdown two weeks ago, and even though traders were supposedly worried about this event, the indexes hardly flinched, and even rallied.
And finally, there was an article that came out mid-last week throwing shade on the AI trade via Oracle (ORCL) that easily could have popped the AI bubble. And in reaction to that news, AI stocks fell that day and then came ROARING back the next day.
Essentially, the bulls were shrugging off these known worries.
Then on Friday, somewhat out of nowhere, the U.S./China trade war came roaring back to life, which sent the S&P 500 lower by 2.7%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.5%.
This was just another case of the market being able to handle the known worries well but then falling on the unforeseen.
Now, how long the renewed trade war will last, or how the market will move in the days to come is truly anyone’s guess. Though I would note, two stocks that could be affected by a trade war did see put buying on Friday. Here are those trades:
Buyer of 5,000 Nike (NKE) January 50 Puts for $0.57 – Stock at 66.5
Buyer of 4,000 Amer Sports (AS) October 30 Puts for $0.50 – Stock at 31.5 (sports equipment company with exposure to China, much like Nike above)
In terms of stocks next on my watchlist for new buys, I don’t have any top candidates right now, which is totally fine as earnings season kicks off this week and then really ramps in the weeks that follow. And as is always the case, earnings season is typically where we find our best ideas as earnings stock stars truly stand out amidst the crowd.
Volatility
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) closed the week at 21.5, which is a multi-week high, likely triggered almost entirely by the market selloff on Friday which caused the ”fear index” to spike higher by 32%.
Watching the VIX the next couple of trading days will be a key signal as to whether we are going to see a “normal” pullback, or the start of something bigger.
Option Order Flow was fairly mixed this past week as my Options Barometer came in at:
Monday – 5
Tuesday – 5
Wednesday – 5
Thursday – 5
Friday – 5
Events for the Week to Come
With the government shutdown continuing, economic data reports for the most part have been put on pause.
And because of that, traders will almost surely be focused on the renewed U.S./China trade fight (I guess we are doing that again) as well as the start of earnings season, mostly led this week by the big banks JPM, WFC, GS, C, MS, BAC, but also leading semiconductors ASML and TSM.
Open Positions
Corning (GLW) March 67.5 Calls – GLW hit a new high on Friday morning but then gave up some of the week’s gains as the day wore on and the market came under pressure. Regardless, our trade is in great shape.
Coupang (CPNG) March 33 Calls – CPNG continued to chop around aimlessly, while still looking good, until the trade war headlines hit on Friday. A prolonged trade war could weigh on CPNG stock, but let’s not predict how long this “new” fight will last.
CSX (CSX) January 32.5 Calls – CSX had a nice week, as the stock made a new recent high before pulling back marginally on Friday along with the market. Of note, option activity remains strong, including this buy from Wednesday:
Wednesday - Buyer of 2,500 CSX (CSX) January 35 Calls for $2.40 – Stock at 36
Deutsche Bank (DB) January 36 Calls – DB gave up some ground last week, though it hardly died. Essentially, the stock looks like most stocks in our portfolio, chopping around with the market (outside of AI plays).
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) May 43 Calls – On Wednesday we rolled our FCX November calls out to May, as the November expiration cycle was becoming too close for my comfort. That appears to be the right move for now, as the stock came under pressure on Friday, and any pullback would have hurt our November calls badly.
Of note, FCX received two upgrades last week, noted below:
FCX started Overweight at Wells Fargo as Top Pick, anticipates a tight 2026 copper mkt as a result of production disappointments from large mines, including QB2, Kamoa-Kakula, and Grasberg
FCX raised to Buy at Citi, raised its copper price forecasts and now expects the metal to reach $12,000 in the first half of 12,000
Grab Holdings (GRAB) January 5 Calls (exp. 2027) – Despite continued steady bullish option activity, GRAB pulled back last week to the 6 level. That is fine, though clearly we want the stock to make a run at its recent highs made earlier last week.
Pfizer (PFE) June 27 Calls – It’s possible, though I’m not ready to fully commit to this statement, that we may have chased PFE and failed. What I mean is the stock got hit last week and has given up much of its recent gains. Regardless, I structured our trade with plenty of time, so I’m not too worried about our position just yet.
And furthermore, as Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer wrote last week, stocks like PFE might work if the stock market slows down: “We think Healthcare remains the best defensive hedge for US equity investors should markets face near term headwinds related to liquidity and/or a pause in earnings revisions breadth upside.”
Robinhood (HOOD) December 50 Calls – HOOD hit another all-time high last week before pulling back with the market on Friday. Regardless, our calls are still at a monster profit, and I think the stock looks great.
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) January 222 Calls – The IWM traded at a new high early last week before getting hit on Friday along with the market. Our position is still in great shape, though a prolonged trade war wouldn’t be great for small-cap stocks.
Uber (UBER) December 90 Calls – Once AGAIN UBER hit the 100 level and was rejected, and my patience with this trade that works one day and then fails the next is growing thin.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) December 590 Puts – Just in case this trade war intensifies, we will continue to hold our puts for now. That being said, if the market starts moving higher again, we will sell this hedge.
Copyright © 2025. All rights reserved. Copying or electronic transmission of this information without permission is a violation of copyright law. For the protection of our subscribers, copyright violations will result in immediate termination of all subscriptions without refund. Disclosures: Cabot Wealth Network exists to serve you, our readers. We derive 100% of our revenue, or close to it, from selling subscriptions to our publications. Neither Cabot Wealth Network nor our employees are compensated in any way by the companies whose stocks we recommend or providers of associated financial services. Employees of Cabot Wealth Network may own some of the stocks recommended by our advisory services. Disclaimer: Sources of information are believed to be reliable but they are not guaranteed to be complete or error-free. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that subscribers acting on information assume all risks involved. Buy/Sell Recommendations: are made in regular issues, updates, or alerts by email and on the private subscriber website. Subscribers agree to adhere to all terms and conditions which can be found on CabotWealth.com and are subject to change. Violations will result in termination of all subscriptions without refund in addition to any civil and criminal penalties available under the law.
