The news cycle moves fast these days, as does the market’s reaction.
Last week, the big news was the 90-day ceasefire in the U.S. vs. China trade war. This week, it’s the passing of the reconciliation bill in the House and concerns over the deficit (the two are not unrelated).
It sounds like the main hurdles to getting the bill through the Senate will relate to potential Medicaid cuts, IRA tax credit phase-outs (solar stocks getting hammered today) and a higher SALT deduction cap.
If you don’t care about the details of any of that (though I expect most are at least somewhat tuned into potential changes in Medicaid) then the takeaway, as far as the stock market is concerned, is that the potential boost from the package is likely to be roughly offset by the growth hit from tariffs.
At least, that’s what Goldman says. And they are the gold standard when it comes to the macro picture.
On trade, a little positive news in the last 24 hours with Lutnick prepping the market for some mid-summer dealmaking. Whether that happens or not, I think we’re all a lot happier to hear about potential deals than the harsh “we don’t care what the market does” type of commentary we got back in early April.
The bottom line right now is the market came up off the big selloff very quickly, and, according to AAII, there are now more bulls than bears out there. That suggests the “easy money” from the rally has been made and it’ll get a little tougher here in the short term.
That said, I’m seeing plenty of opportunities out there, and more than a few eye-popping rallies in the small-cap space. So, I don’t think things will get boring anytime soon.
Recent Changes
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Updates
Artivion (AORT) has traded down over the last two sessions. Trading action may be influenced by the previously announced convertible note for common stock exchange (discussed last week). The exchange transactions should be completed by May 28 (next Wednesday), after which we’ll get a better picture of AORT’s current trading action. Keep new positions small. BUY
AvePoint (AVPT) has pulled back from the recent all-time highs just above 20. There’s no new news other than that management will present at three conferences in June. These are Baird (June 3), D.A. Davidson (June 10) and Northland (June 25). HOLD
Axogen (AXGN) is still in the dumps following an earnings miss a couple weeks ago. The short version is that higher costs impacted the quarter, but management maintained full-year revenue growth (+15% to 17%) and gross margin (73% to 75%) guidance. We’ve seen some weakness in MedTech stocks this week (IHI -2.2% yesterday) but AXGN was basically flat, suggesting the selling pressure may be over here. Still considering buying more, but not ready just yet. BUY HALF
Delcath (DCTH) stock broke out to multi-year highs above 17 on Monday. This morning, management released full-year guidance, which was not released at the time of the Q1 earnings call on May 8. The company said full-year 2025 revenue should be in the range of $94 to $98 million. Previous consensus expectations were $94.1 million, so this should be welcomed as good news. BUY HALF
Enovix (ENVX) stock has wiggled around this week with no meaningful action. The company remains on track to launch with its first smartphone customer by the end of this year, with the first purchase order expected in the September to November time frame. Quantities TBD. Sounds like there is a second smartphone customer in the pipeline as well. Management also talked about other market opportunities, including coating capacity and production for the Korean defense market, which could be supported by the newly acquired SolarEdge facility. HOLD
FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) stock has been relatively flat this week. Last Thursday, I mentioned the company’s 10Q was delayed, but it was filed on Friday. Still considering upgrading to buy, but not doing so yet. Apparently, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. has, at Trump’s request, submitted a recommendation to the President on Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover bid for U.S. Steel (X). We don’t know what it says, but there’s been a few headlines saying Trump should announce whether he’ll let the deal go through, or not, soon. FIP management has said no deal is neutral, while an acquisition is likely a modest positive. HOLD
Hannan Metals (HANNF, HAN.CA) shares have come up nicely from their sell-off last week. Part of that decline was driven by a broad move lower in the price of gold and gold stocks. I also heard through the grapevine that there may have been some local news from a mayor in Peru that has been opposed to the project, located about an hour and a half away, that some thought would delay the start of drilling. That wasn’t the case, and apparently, the official has no authority or responsibility over the project. Last week, management announced the first drill rig has been mobilized to the Belen prospect within the company’s 100%-owned Valiente copper-gold project in Peru. We should have results from the first few holes, hopefully, in June or early July. After more is learned about the targets, Hannan plans to bring in another drilling rig. BUY
Natural Grocers (NGVC) is flat over the last week on no news other than some press releases about Memorial Day sales. BUY HALF
Perpetua Resources (PPTA) stock is up 11% since last Thursday’s close, helped along by final federal approval for the Stibnite gold project in Idaho. The U.S. Corps of Engineers issued the Clean Water Act Section 404 permit, so now Perpetua will focus on finalizing the remaining state permits and securing financing. National Bank of Canada follows the company and has a 24 price target on shares. The bank’s analysts acknowledge, as I have lately, that Perpetua faces a tight financial situation in the near term. The bank believes it could delay some expenses until later in the year after financing has been arranged. Clearly, there is some risk here, but I expect that if/when Perpetua has the green light and secures financing (assuming terms are reasonable), the stock will react very well. BUY HALF
Currently Open
| Ticker | Stock Name | Date Bought | Price Bought | 5/22/25 | Profit | Rating |
| AORT | Artivion | 6/5/24 | 23.3 | 28.2 | 21% | Buy |
| AVPT | AvePoint | 9/5/24 | 11.6 | 18.3 | 58% | Hold |
| AXGN | Axogen | 3/5/25 | 17.8 | 11.2 | -37% | Buy Half |
| DCTH | Delcath Systems | 2/6/25 | 16.3 | 16.7 | 3% | Buy Half |
| ENVX | Enovix | 10/6/22 | 20.4 | 7.7 | -62% | Hold |
| FIP | FTAI Infrastructure | 8/1/24 | 10.2 | 5 | -51% | Hold |
| HANNF | Hannan Metals | 5/1/25 | 1 | 0.8 | -24% | Buy |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers | 4/3/25 | 40.4 | 50.7 | 25% | Buy Half |
| PPTA | Perpetua Resources | 12/4/24 | 10.7 | 13.5 | 26% | Buy Half |
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