May 29, 2025

Portfolio Changes: None

International Country ETFs Sparkle

Closely watched Nvidia (NVDA) reported its first-quarter earnings yesterday, beating expectations nicely on revenue despite restrictions on shipments of its H20 chips to China. The company posted revenue of $44.1 billion, up 69% from a year ago, but Nvidia expects to miss out on roughly $8 billion in sales of H20s to China in the second quarter.

The big news though is that a federal trade court ruled President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose sweeping tariffs on many nations, blocking the tariffs. The court argued that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act “does not confer such unbounded authority and sets aside the challenged tariffs imposed thereunder.”

Don’t let your guard down, though, because this is not the end of the story. Multiple appeals are likely.

Tariffs and agriculture go hand in hand as America is now a net food importer. Agriculture exports are still critical and have significant spin-off effects, as you can see in the below chart (courtesy of the USDA).

There appears to be developing a relationship between Bitcoin and gold whereby if one rises the other normally declines. I will watch this but the wise move would be to have both in your portfolio.

When I was a publisher of an investment letter at Forbes, I had a popular Country ETF Rotation. It was made up of country ETFs and I shifted between them based on a momentum macro model. I will talk about this strategy at my upcoming webinar on June 12.

Here are some of the better year-to-date returns among country ETFs as of early this week. They clearly show the results of the “Great Rebalancing” we have highlighted over the last year.

Poland (EPOL): 47.6%
Austria (EWO): 34.3%
Greece (GREK): 32.7%
Spain (EWP): 32.5%
Chile (ECH): 30.0%
Colombia (GXG): 29.8%
Italy (EWI): 27.9%

Why Poland? Poland is now one of the cheapest European plays, boosted by monetary tailwinds and manufacturing momentum. Poland’s skilled labor, infrastructure, and location make it a nearshoring manufacturing center and a hedge on China risk. The country has become a key NATO member in a fractured Europe.

The Poland (EPOL) ETF is focused on banks and energy with financials making up about 40% of assets.

Explorer Weekly Stock Commentary

Below is a brief update on each Explorer stock. Any changes in ratings will be highlighted. This section is all you need to read each week.

Explorer Disrupter Recommendations – need to watch more closely and have a 20% trailing stop-loss in place.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) shares were up 4.4% this week, in line with a rebound in gold prices. Gold has risen with inflation and uncertainty over tariffs and growth. Central bank purchases have been the primary factor driving up gold prices in recent years, but growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings are fueling demand. Buy a Half

Banco Santander (SAN) shares were largely unchanged as the bank announced its first U.S. physical Open Bank location in Miami. The bank recently reached 100,000 customers in the United States – a key milestone for its Openbank digital platform. Buy a Half

BYD (BYDDY) shares again reversed last week’s 10.6% gain due to announced price cuts of as much as 34% on 22 electric and plug-in hybrid models in China until the end of June. Meanwhile, its Blade batteries are a specialized form of lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) that are supplied to some third-party EV makers such as Xiaomi, XPeng, Nio, and Toyota in addition to Tesla. Buy a Half

Coeur Mining (CDE) shares were up 7.1% in their first week as an Explorer recommendation as the company announced a buyback plan authorized by its board of directors, allowing the company to repurchase up to $75 million worth of shares through May 2026. Coeur is a mining company that explores gold, silver, zinc, and other related metals in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. This is a speculative recommendation and timing a strong turn in silver stocks is difficult. BUY A HALF

Dutch Bros (BROS) shares were up 21.4% last week but down 10% this week despite announcing last week that quarterly revenue grew 29%. Volatility is increasing but shares have nearly doubled in the past year due to the healthy growth in the company’s top and bottom lines. The stock is very expensive right now so I suggest you sell some shares to lock in gains. Hold a Half

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) shares were off 3% this week after the company recently announced it will open a store in New York as Starbucks (SBUX) looks at revamping or restructuring its China operations. Starbucks has more than 7,750 stores in China as Luckin now has more than twice as many outlets. Buy a Half

Mitsui (MITSF) shares were up 2% this week as Japanese trading companies benefit from capital flowing into Japan. Mitsui has assets of $112 billion, $6 billion of profits and $7 billion of operating cash flow. The stock trades close to book value and only 10 times forward earnings. Buy a Half

Sea Limited (SE) shares are up 29% in last month but I’m maintaining a cautious hold as the stock’s current valuation looks expensive based on its 2026 forward price-to-earnings ratio, relative to other e-commerce peers. In its last quarter, sales climbed 30% to $4.84 billion, roughly in line with estimates. Hold a Half

Subaru (FUJHY) shares were steady this week but I’m increasingly thinking that the stock of this excellent company has limited upside despite trading at about five times trailing earnings and about 70% of book value. Buy a Half

Explorer Dominator Blue-Chip Recommendations – More Buy and Hold

DBS Bank (DBSDY) shares were up 3.7% this week and this stock is a solid and steady core holding. DBS just had a solid quarter and is still looking at loan growth of 5% to 6% this year but its CEO is concerned about Asia-Pacific trade flows in the wake of tariff battles. Buy a Half

International Business Machines (IBM) shares are up about 20% so far this year. Although top-line growth is not impressive, IBM gives us broad exposure to hybrid cloud computing platforms, AI solutions, consulting services, and enterprise infrastructure to help businesses modernize their operations. Buy a Half

Visa (V) shares pulled back 2% this week even as Jefferies modestly raised its price target citing Visa as well-positioned in the long term, supported by its global reach, robust payment infrastructure, and exposure to ongoing growth in digital commerce. In the first quarter, it posted a 9% increase in revenue and announced a $30 billion share buyback program. Buy a Half

Watch List – Stocks we like but do not follow day-to-day

ConocoPhillips (COP), Franco-Nevada (FNV), MOOG (MOG-A)

Explorer ETF/Fund Positions

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) offers investors a way to track very closely to the day-to-day or “spot” movement of bitcoin prices. For aggressive investors comfortable with volatility. Buy a Small Allocation

JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) offers double-digit yield coming from both option premiums and dividends using a value-focused strategy. Buy a Full

Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund (CAF) offers exposure to a basket of top Chinese-listed stocks. Buy a Half

Oberweis Micro-Cap Fund (OBMCX) fund stands out for several reasons. The fund’s sound investment process and strong management team earns it a rare Morningstar Medalist Rating of Gold. Over the past five years it has posted an impressive average annual return of 24%. Buy a Half

Sprott Platinum and Palladium ETF (SPPP) offers direct exposure to both platinum and palladium which are selling at a sizable discount to gold offering potential upside appreciation. Buy a Half

Stoxx Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense (EUAD) tracks an index of top defense contractors including Leonardo, Rheinmetall, and BAE Systems. Buy a Half

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) is a basket of junior miners that has 84 positions with the top 10 accounting for 44% of total assets. Half of the stocks are Canadian, 21% Australia, and 7% from South Africa. BUY A HALF

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Fund (DEM) offers a high dividend yield and some of the highest quality emerging market stocks. Buy a Half

Explorer Stocks Summary

Brief company summaries that will not change week to week.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) follows a conservative strategy and with a history spanning more than 60 years, and now operates a sizable portfolio of 11 assets located in four countries. Management forecasted gold production of approximately 3.45 million ounces in 2024. The company estimates it has about 54 million gold ounces of proven and probable reserves. Furthermore, Agnico Eagle has paid a dividend for 41 consecutive years with a dividend compounded growth rate of 23% per year since 2005 and paid a dividend of $1.60 per share in 2024.

Banco Santander (SAN) was founded in Spain in 1857. The bank’s U.S. headquarters is in Boston, but its strength lies in Latin America and Europe where it has more than 8,000 branches with 171 million customers as well as 58 million digital accounts. About 55% of deposits and loans are in Europe with the balance in Latin America. In its most recent quarter, Santander’s revenue was up 8% while net profits increased 16%.

BYD (BYDDY), in both 2021 and 2022, more than tripled sales from the previous year. That’s hyper growth and including hybrids, BYD has already surged past Tesla in terms of sales. Most of BYD’s sales are still in China but it has a big international expansion underway, including in the U.S., Europe, and Asian markets. BYD will also launch a next-generation Blade battery in 2025, with longer range and faster charging. That, along with various other models, could help rev up BEV sales growth next year. BYD expects solid-state batteries for high-end models by 2027, but not fully reaching lower-end models until 2030-2032.

Coeur Mining (CD) is a mining company that explores gold, silver, zinc, and other related metals in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. For many precious metal investors, silver is seen as gold’s “little brother,” but it has a long history as a means of payment going back centuries as the Spanish silver dollar was once the reserve currency of the day. In 2025, we passed the 100:1 mark for only the fourth time in a hundred years – a strong signal that silver may be underpriced. While gold has reached an historic high, the silver price is almost 50% off its all-time high in U.S. dollars per ounce.

Watch List: ConocoPhillips (COP) is a global energy industry giant and one of the largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies in the world, as measured by production levels and proved reserves. The company, founded in 1917 and based in Houston, has operations in 13 countries, although almost half the company’s production is derived from U.S. sources.

DBS Bank (DBSDY) is one of the largest banks in Southeast Asia with a presence in 19 markets. It is headquartered in Singapore, with its main listing on the Singapore Stock Exchange, and is the largest constituent of the Singapore Straits Times Index. The Government of Singapore established DBS in July 1968 and its largest and controlling shareholder is Temasek Holdings, which is one of two large sovereign wealth funds controlled by the Government of Singapore. DBS has assets of roughly $750 billion and a growing presence in the three key Asian areas of growth, which it defines as Greater China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, meaning India. It is the largest and strongest bank in Southeast Asia and the leading consumer bank in both Hong Kong and Singapore.

Dutch Bros (BROS) is an operator and franchisor of drive-through coffee stores, with 1,012 stores as of the end of the first quarter, including 30 that it opened in the quarter. It’s expanding at a steady pace, expecting up to 150 new stores in 2025, and it envisions up to 7,000 stores over the next 10 to 15 years.

Watch List: Franco-Nevada (FNV) is a company with more than half of its revenue coming from gold, but it also offers exposure to platinum, silver, and oil and gas. Franco-Nevada’s focus on royalties and streaming reduces risk and enables it to sidestep the huge capital costs that impact traditional miners. It enjoys cash flow and profits as its mining partners finance and complete exploration and expansion projects. That cash flow enables it to invest in new deals, pay a dividend, and operate debt free. Franco-Nevada has increased its dividend each year since its IPO in 2008.

International Business Machines (IBM) is a blue-chip artificial intelligence (AI) and India play with a nice dividend yield. Known as “Big Blue,” IBM now primarily helps businesses and governments manage their information technology in the cloud era. The stock sells at a discount to the S&P 500 multiple and the information technology sector’s forward earnings multiple. IBM has paid a dividend every quarter since 1916 and has had 30 consecutive years of dividend increases.

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) is a leading purveyor of coffee and specialty drinks in China. The price of a cup of Starbucks coffee is more than double that of Luckin coffee. In addition, Luckin is adept at adapting to local tastes and launching new products that broaden the market. For instance, it brings to market about 60 new products each year, offering a new drink every week. Its new coconut latte sells nearly $140 million worth annually. All this shows in the numbers as Luckin’s latest quarter revealed strong sales and store count growth.

Mitsui (MITSF) stands out among the big five by leaning into mining and materials. Mitsui has entered joint ventures around the world, taking project stakes in iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, nickel, and LNG with 50%-60% of profit coming metals and energy. But Mitsui’s chairman emphasizes that Mitsui is not a resource company. Rather he describes the company as a place where smart people identify new trends and pursue big profits through small experiments. For example, Mitsui owns 33% stake in IHH Healthcare, the largest hospital group in Asia, and 17% stake in Penske Automotive in North America. Other sectors of activity include energy, infrastructure, agriculture and food, and consumer retail.

Watch List: Moog, Inc. (MOG-A) supplies advanced primary flight controls on the most modern military aircraft. That includes the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft program. The company’s major platforms include the 787, A350, Joint Strike Fighter (F-35 Lightning II). The company also supplies primary flight controls for the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 widebody aircraft, as well as business and regional jets from Embraer (ERJ) and Gulfstream, owned by General Dynamics (GD).

Sea Limited (SE) has three core businesses: 1) digital gaming/entertainment, 2) e-commerce, and 3) digital payments and financial services, known as Garena, Shopee, and Monee (formerly SeaMoney), respectively. Garena is a leading global online games developer and publisher. Shopee is the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia and Taiwan. Monee is a leading digital payments and financial services provider in Southeast Asia.

Subaru (FUJHY), based in Tokyo, Subaru holds a 10% market share in Japan, making it the third-largest automaker in the country. In America, the Subaru brand has a cult-like following and Subaru’s stock sells for only five times trailing earnings and about 70% of book value. It also sports a 3.8% dividend yield, has a market value of $13.4 billion and has a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of $7 billion.

Visa (V) doesn’t extend credit but provides the plumbing for financial payments and communications throughout the world. Visa’s financial infrastructure also underpins much of the world’s commerce. The duopoly between Visa and Mastercard is often referred to as one of the best businesses in the world, with insurmountable moats, low operating costs, and plenty of opportunities for unlocking additional value. Visa currently trades at a discount to its archrival MasterCard.

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