Issues
There’s no sugarcoating it: This is a historic market collapse, and it’s no fun for anyone. Volatility, fear and uncertainty are as palpable as they’ve been on Wall Street since perhaps the Covid crash in 2020. Unlike Covid, however, tariffs can be reversed, or at least mitigated, by a policy change, comment or tweet from the person who enacted them. That adds to the uncertainty. But it also means that it is very much a day-to-day, and even hour-to-hour, situation.
Given how fluid things are, it’s a good time to add as safe a stock as possible to the Stock of the Week portfolio. So this week I called upon Cabot Turnaround Letter Chief Analyst Clif Droke to offer up one of his most reliable potential turnaround stories. It’s a company that sells a lot of products that everyone needs all the time – regardless of tariffs or the state of the economy.
Details inside.
Given how fluid things are, it’s a good time to add as safe a stock as possible to the Stock of the Week portfolio. So this week I called upon Cabot Turnaround Letter Chief Analyst Clif Droke to offer up one of his most reliable potential turnaround stories. It’s a company that sells a lot of products that everyone needs all the time – regardless of tariffs or the state of the economy.
Details inside.
It was a historic week for the market, and not for any positive reasons as the S&P 500 fell 9.1%, the Dow lost 7.9% and the Nasdaq declined by 10%. Perhaps the weekend will give traders a bit of time to better digest the tariff news and the market will stabilize this week, OR, it’s also possible that the uncertainty is just too much for traders to digest.
It was a historic week for the market, and not for any positive reasons as the S&P 500 fell 9.1%, the Dow lost 7.9% and the Nasdaq declined by 10%. Perhaps the weekend will give traders a bit of time to better digest the tariff news and the market will stabilize this week, OR, it’s also possible that the uncertainty is just too much for traders to digest.
Today’s addition is a play on the growing shift toward healthier eating habits and nutritional supplements. It’s a small, U.S.-based natural foods grocery chain that’s growing, profitable, pays a dividend and has very little exposure to tariffs.
It offers considerable upside potential but also should have decent downside protection. In other words, a good stock for the current environment!
It offers considerable upside potential but also should have decent downside protection. In other words, a good stock for the current environment!
The market’s brief rally ran into a wall last week, and while the major indexes found some support near their March lows initially, today’s tariff-induced plunge put an end to that. While the headlines and news items are hitting the wires fast and furious, we urge you to stay focused on the evidence--doing so is why we were nearly 60% in cash the day after the market’s February top and why we’ve been north of 80% cash in recent weeks, shielding the portfolio from the worst of the decline. Tonight, we are forced to sell one of our remaining small positions, which will boost our cash hoard to the upper-80% range.
For now, we’re comfortable remaining in our storm cellar, but while the news and action is awful now, there are some rays of light out there (like falling Treasury rates), as well as many stocks that are etching higher lows right now while the market does the opposite (see more in tonight’s issue). Eventually, this down period will give way to a great money-making opportunity, so keep your head up--but stay defensive for now.
For now, we’re comfortable remaining in our storm cellar, but while the news and action is awful now, there are some rays of light out there (like falling Treasury rates), as well as many stocks that are etching higher lows right now while the market does the opposite (see more in tonight’s issue). Eventually, this down period will give way to a great money-making opportunity, so keep your head up--but stay defensive for now.
U.S. stocks remain paralyzed by tariff fears, but not energy stocks. They’re the best-performing S&P 500 sector by far this year, more than doubling the return of any other sector. And yet, they remain the most undervalued sector by virtually every measure. So this month, we add a large-cap energy stock to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio that has a yearslong history of not only outperforming the market, but blowing it out of the water. But after a slow start to the year, it’s trading at a rare discount. We think it has immediate upside – and a high dividend yield should hold us over until it gets there.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% last Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength last week. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
The market had what amounted to a halfway decent eight-day rally, but the sellers pounced on that move, with most major indexes testing or reaching new correction lows today. From here, we’ll be watching to see how this short-term retest phase goes—given the very negative sentiment and obvious reason for the selling (tariffs), a super-powerful rally from here would be intriguing, especially if some resilient stocks (those that are holding well above their lows from a couple weeks ago) take flight. Over time, this decline will set the stage for a buoyant advance with lots of new leadership, but until that payoff arrives, continue to practice patience. As always, though, we just go with the here and now; we’ll yank our Market Monitor back down a notch to a level 3.
This week’s list is again very well rounded, though not surprisingly, there’s fewer go-go growth names, as more well-situated outfits are favored. Our Top Pick has both growth and defensive characteristics, and the stock is holding up very well.
This week’s list is again very well rounded, though not surprisingly, there’s fewer go-go growth names, as more well-situated outfits are favored. Our Top Pick has both growth and defensive characteristics, and the stock is holding up very well.
So much for the market rebound. Or is this a classic double bottom before the real rally begins after Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” full of Trump’s latest round of mysterious tariffs finally passes and Wall Street breathes a collective sigh of relief? I’m betting the clouds part sooner rather than later, as investor pessimism has reached levels not seen since the October 2022 bear market bottom. So today, despite saying goodbye to a few more underperforming positions, I’m betting on the upside of growth, adding a mid-cap software stock recently recommended by Tyler Laundon to his Cabot Early Opportunities readers.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Please note, I will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week, which means I will not send a Daily morning Option Order Flow email Tuesday through Thursday. And while I will be traveling, as always, I will keep my eye on the market and if we need to act on a position, I will send an update or alert.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
Please note, I will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week, which means I will not send a Daily morning Option Order Flow email Tuesday through Thursday. And while I will be traveling, as always, I will keep my eye on the market and if we need to act on a position, I will send an update or alert.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
The markets continue to lack direction and are buffeted by uncertainty regarding tariffs, taxes and spending, debt and conflict, but yesterday came to life as concerns over some of these risks were mollified. Nevertheless, broadening and diversifying your portfolio makes sense to maintain an objective of growth while also being mindful of protecting your wealth.
This brings us to gold - and today’s recommendation.
This brings us to gold - and today’s recommendation.
Updates
May the buyouts begin. Poor sentiment has pushed the values of cannabis companies so low, the strong are now buying the weak. Like the recent cannabis company insider buying, this is a signal that valuations may be close to bottoming here.
However, realistically, it could be a while before the sector recovers since we are dependent on politicians for progress.
However, realistically, it could be a while before the sector recovers since we are dependent on politicians for progress.
The post-election bounce is over. But stocks could still finish the year higher. These are good times. The S&P 500 is up about 30% year to date. This adds to a 26% return for the index in 2023.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including American Airlines (AAL), Atlassian (TEAM), Duluth Holdings (DLTH), Intel (INTC), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish but continue to manage your portfolio and pick your spots carefully on the buy side. Our market timing indicators are in good shape, and leading growth stocks continue to impress, though near-term sentiment is getting euphoric. Tonight, we’re going to sell one-third of our stake in Shift4 (FOUR), which has fallen sharply on out-of-the-blue news, which will leave us with 16% in cash.
These are good times. The S&P 500 is up 6% since the election and 27% year to date. This adds to a 26% return for the index in 2023.
The market is seemingly making new highs every day as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward because of the election. We’ll see if the economic growth materializes. But this optimistic economy expectation comes while the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will likely last the next two years. Why wouldn’t the market be partying?
The market is seemingly making new highs every day as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward because of the election. We’ll see if the economic growth materializes. But this optimistic economy expectation comes while the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will likely last the next two years. Why wouldn’t the market be partying?
The market has been just great! The S&P 500 was up 5.7% in November and now has a 26.47% year-to-date return. This adds to the 26% market return last year.
Stocks were riding high, and the election provided a further boost as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward. The cyclical stocks have led the recent charge. The best-performing market sectors since the election are finance, consumer discretionary, and energy.
Stocks were riding high, and the election provided a further boost as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward. The cyclical stocks have led the recent charge. The best-performing market sectors since the election are finance, consumer discretionary, and energy.
Small-cap stocks continue to act extremely well, and we have a new all-time high for the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. It hit 1,520 on an intra-day basis on Monday, then closed at 1,545. Both levels surpass the previous all-time high of 1,477 from November 2021.
The index is hanging tight to those levels today too, trading near 1,537.
The index is hanging tight to those levels today too, trading near 1,537.
Centrus Energy (LEU) shares jumped almost 19% this past week and are up 70% in the last six months. Dutch Bros (BROS) shares gained 6.3% this week following weekly gains of 10.6% and 36%.
Tariffs took center stage this week as the incoming Trump administration indicated day-one 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and some more for China as well.
Tariffs took center stage this week as the incoming Trump administration indicated day-one 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and some more for China as well.
After a brief dip following the post-election euphoria, the market is right back to a new high.
So far, the promise of stronger economic growth is more than offsetting the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. As a result, new sectors have emerged as market leaders. Cyclical sectors have taken off. The financial, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the market. Those sectors are up 9.3%, 5.7%, and 8.6% respectively in the three weeks since the election.
So far, the promise of stronger economic growth is more than offsetting the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. As a result, new sectors have emerged as market leaders. Cyclical sectors have taken off. The financial, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the market. Those sectors are up 9.3%, 5.7%, and 8.6% respectively in the three weeks since the election.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Alcoa (AA), Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BNT), Intel (INTC) and Starbucks (SBUX).
The broad market outlook remains bullish for the rest of this year and early next year, but with the possibility for weakness to emerge heading further into 2025.
The broad market outlook remains bullish for the rest of this year and early next year, but with the possibility for weakness to emerge heading further into 2025.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but again, be sure to keep your feet on the ground. The pullback last week was tedious, and our Two-Second Indicator is looking iffy, but the market’s trends have remained up and growth stocks are still very strong. We sold one-third of our Palatir (PLTR) position earlier this week, booking partial profits in a good winner, and tonight we’re going to average up in Samsara (IOT), buying another 5% stake, which will leave us with around 19% in cash. Details below.
Quick Note: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, you will receive next week’s Small-Cap update a day early, on Wednesday, November 27, 2024.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index raced higher right after the election, gave a little back last week, found support at the previous all-time high early this week, and is now rallying again.
I think the small-cap story is starting to get out there and driving a wave of interest from investors who haven’t given small caps much thought for a few years. There is so much potential to rally from here that it can be a little hard not to get too bullish.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index raced higher right after the election, gave a little back last week, found support at the previous all-time high early this week, and is now rallying again.
I think the small-cap story is starting to get out there and driving a wave of interest from investors who haven’t given small caps much thought for a few years. There is so much potential to rally from here that it can be a little hard not to get too bullish.
Alerts
EverQuote (EVER) and RxSight (RXST) Deliver; FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) Still a Buy
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious. Due to the poor action in growth stocks in recent weeks, we’ve been steadily paring back and came into today with a 61% cash position—just as the market went over the falls this morning with some panic selling. Near term, it’s possible the market will bounce, and indeed most stocks are well off their lows today, so we’re going to hold onto our remaining positions for now—though we’ll be in touch if we make some changes later this week.
Shares of new addition FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) are trading down modestly today but outperforming the market after delivering Q2 results at the crack of dawn this morning (not after the bell yesterday, as they were supposed to).
WHAT TO DO NOW: After a sharp reversal lower yesterday, the market is suffering a selling storm today with most major indexes down 2%+ and growth stocks remaining very weak, including another chunk that are giving up the ghost. We’re going to sell our half-sized stake in Robinhood (HOOD) and put the ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Fund (UWM) on hold. That will bring our cash position to 60%.
Enovix (ENVX), Weave (WEAV), TransMedics (TMDX) and Zeta (ZETA) Deliver
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.