Cabot Top Ten Trader Issue: May 19, 2025

*Note: Your next issue of Cabot Top Ten Trader will arrive next Tuesday, May 27 due to the market holiday next Monday, May 26 in observance of Memorial Day.

A Good Test

The evidence continues to take steps in the right direction, with most of the intermediate-term, top-down measures now pointing up and, after last week, more and more leadership-type names are beginning to perk up—to be sure, there’s still work to do on that latter front (relatively few names are hitting new highs), but there’s definitely more names joining the party. Of course, the headline news from this weekend was the downgrade of U.S. debt, which could be used as an excuse to pull in some indexes and stocks that have had good runs … though today there wasn’t much of that at all, likely in part because the downgrade has no real effect on the markets. All told, we’re increasingly optimistic when it comes to the bigger picture (that the market will be nicely higher down the road), though we still want to see more fresh leaders emerge (as opposed to just regain a chunk of their February-April losses) to give us added conviction that big investors are flooring the accelerator. At this point, we have our Market Monitor at a level 7 as we see how the market and individual stocks handle this test.

This week’s list is a bit eclectic, with everything from earnings winners to earnings setups to news-driven names. Our Top Pick is GE Vernova (GEV), which certainly acts like an institutional leader and has the story and numbers to match.

Stock 1

Adtalem Global Education (ATGE)

Why the Strength
Adtalem is the largest provider of healthcare education in the U.S., making it poised to benefit as it’s a big player in filling the long-term structural lack of nurses and other trained healthcare workers in the country. Adtalem operates five universities (one of which provides veterinary training) that have 27 physical campuses and extensive online course offerings. The investment proposition for Adtalem is simple: More than 40% of registered nurses (RNs) and licensed practical nurses (LPNs) are over 50, meaning the current 9% worker shortfall in health care institutions is forecast to get much worse in the years ahead … unless there’s a wave of education that trains a large generation of new nurses. Adtalem spent a number of years pruning its more extensive educational offerings to focus on its now core strategy of health care, and that focus is paying off with student enrollment now at 94,000, a figure that’s grown seven straight quarters, including 10% year over year in the fiscal third quarter (ending in March) reported earlier this month. Adtalem’s Chamberlain University is the largest nursing school in the country; its main campus is in Addison, Illinois, and it has 53 clinical hubs in 36 states. The hub education program is still on the smaller side compared to Adtalem’s overall business, at about 4,000 students, but it has a good niche, allowing students to explore specialties within nursing in concert with medical facility partners that provide the clinical training site. Adtalem’s other nursing schools, Walden, Ross and American University of the Caribbean, have excellent placement rates too, with 95% of students getting jobs at graduation, the fourth straight year its students have achieved that level of placement. A good percentage of those are in medically underserved areas, meaning Adtalem grads see lots of employer interest. Sales here have been growing in the low teens, with earnings expanding much quicker, with the recent report ($1.92 per share) surpassing estimates by 27 cents. It’s a solid, niche-type growth story.

Technical Analysis
ATGE decisively changed character one year ago, with shares popping on earnings and enjoying a relatively smooth run for many months before finally finding resistance near 112 at the end of January. The correction that followed was normal (23% deep), and the stock etched a nicely higher low in April and then broke out in early May—and accelerated nicely higher after earnings. Of course, it’s not in the first inning of its overall run, which is a risk, but we’re OK taking a stab at it down a little from here.

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Stock 2

Birkenstock (BIRK)

Why the Strength
Birkenstock shoes have gained popularity in recent years, driven partly by their comfort (owing to their contoured footbeds and arch support) and durability, but also thanks to collaborative endorsements from celebrities and social media personalities. Although the German company is seeing growth across all its segments and product categories, the growth has been most pronounced for its closed-toe silhouettes, which are unisex clogs similar to competitor Crocs’ offerings (but definitely higher-end), preferred by many wearers due to their superior arch support. These products were a key growth driver for Birkenstock in fiscal Q2 (ended March), which saw company-wide revenue of $621 million increase 20% year-on-year, with earnings of 59 cents a share that were up 34%. By channel, direct-to-customer (DTC) and wholesale-to-retail (B2B) sales both grew 19%, led by a strong performance in sandals and closed-toe shoes, with sales of its five most iconic silhouettes also growing by double digits. In the earnings call, Birkenstock said its fiscal 2025 was off to a “very strong start” and credited its distribution strategy as putting the firm in an “enviable position” to take additional shelf space and gain market share. The outfit said it’s on track with its retail expansion, with 77 owned stores (six opened in Q2), with a goal of 100 stores to be open by the end of the fiscal year. And with its revenue from closed-toe silhouettes growing at twice the rate of the overall group (nearly half its top 20 silhouettes in Q2 were closed-toe), it was able to increase market share by 4% as its spring/summer ’25 demand was up “strong” double digits, while guiding for continued strength in this category as it begins to build up its order book for spring/summer ’26. On the international front, management said its three top markets included Australia, Japan and China, with the latter more than doubling in revenue year over year, and with the firm seeing an opportunity for continued strong growth in this market. Despite all the tariff uncertainty out there, Wall Street sees Birkenstock’s bottom line surging this year and next, while sales move ahead at high-teens rates.

Technical Analysis
After coming public in October 2023 at 41, BIRK has had a couple of false starts—shares did break out from a nice post-IPO base last May, but the move didn’t get very far, and shares ended up giving it all back in the summer. Then came the rally and rest period into this year, but again, it fell flat, with tariff fears pulling shares down to new lows. But now BIRK is trying again, running back into resistance areas on good volume. We’ll set our buy range up from here, thinking a continuation of the recent upmove would indicate a real breakout is likely in the offing.

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Stock 3

Boeing (BA)

Why the Strength
Boeing needs no introduction, as it’s one of the two big commercial aircraft producers worldwide (along with Airbus), and you’d think that given the huge, growing demand for its wares that it would be thriving of late—but execution and other issues have hampered the stock, with earnings collapsing the past couple of years due to production snafus, cost overruns and losses in its defense and space business. However, demand has remained strong, with the company sporting a riduclous backlog of 5,600 airplanes ($460 billion worth!) for the years ahead, and a new management team (CEO Robert Ortberg took over last August) seems to be getting the house in order: In Q1, sales actually rose 18% from a year ago (the first time revenues were up year-on-year since Q4 2023), while production picked up (130 delivered in the quarter, up 57% from a depressed level a year ago) and remains on track to hit its goals for year-end: Boeing is producing the 737 Max at a “low 30s” pace per month currently, but that should hit 38 monthly by year-end, followed a move to 42 after that if all goes well. Meanwhile, the company is cranking out five 787s per month, on its way to seven per month. The defense segment is still struggling, but operating income is positive there—indeed, operating income for the firm as a whole actually came in at a positive $461 million in the quarter (up from a loss a year ago), while the earnings loss of 49 cents per share was a whopping 68 cents better than estimates. Obviously, there are still a lot of uncertainties, both with the company (can it actually continue to execute?) and macro (tariff costs, though the top brass is optimistic it won’t be a huge issue), but Wall Street is coming around to the view that business will pick up from here and that the bottom line will move into the black in Q4 and will start to surge next year (nearly $4 per share is the current estimate). It’s an interesting turnaround situation.

Technical Analysis
Not surprisingly, the repeated problems and poor execution have resulted in a horrid stretch for BA’s stock, which was cut in half from the start of 2024 to its low last November and, after a modest rally attempt, sank to new lows under 130 at the market’s recent bottom. But there’s no question BA has changed character since, rallying six weeks in a row (including three on above-average volume), tagging 14-month highs and reacting very bullishly to all the positive news out there. We’ll set our buy range down a bit, though given all the selling that occurred in the past year-plus, we’re not expecting a huge retreat.

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Stock 4

GE Vernova (GEV) ★ Top Pick ★

Why the Strength
We never thought we’d see the day where we were high on two different General Electric companies, but here we are—GE Aerospace looks like a liquid leader of the aerospace move, and GE Vernova is in a similar place when it comes to the power and electrification booms. As Vernova’s CEO put it in the Q1 conference call, “The world is entering an era of accelerated electrification driven by manufacturing growth, industrial electrification, EVs and data center needs, which is driving investment in reliable base load power, grid infrastructure and decarbonization solutions … the scale of (electrical) load growth is the largest since the industrial build out post-WWII, but unlike then, the growth is global.” That means demand for the firm’s wares is exploding: In its power business (led by gas turbines), equipment orders lifted 30% in Q1 thanks to 7 GW of turbine orders; the backlog here (both booked and likely to be booked) is now 50 GW, while the top brass thinks orders could amount to another ~20 GW for the rest of the year, about double what the firm will produce—2026 and 2027 are largely sold out already! Then there’s the electrification business (Vernova’s fastest growing), as clients are gobbling up its transformers, switch gears and more; not only did revenues rise north of 10% here, but the backlog soared 10% from the prior quarter, too. And while equipment sales are obviously key, so too is the service side of both businesses, as every sale creates an opportunity for tune ups and upgrades over time—the service backlog across Vernova grew $2 billion in Q1, with a total (equipment and service) backlog of a ridiculous $123 billion. To be fair, the wind business (especially offshore) continues to struggle (EBITDA remains in the red), but the focus is on Vernova having its hands in numerous power and electrification cookie jars that likely have years of higher demand ahead of them. In Q1, EBITDA more than doubled, while free cash flow should come in around $8 per share this year, with many years of big growth in both metrics in the years to come.

Technical Analysis
GEV was definitely a leader of the last advance, but the move came to an abrupt halt after the DeepSeek news in January, with the stock cascading lower during the next couple of months as the market worsened and many AI names were nailed. Still, there were some signs of relative strength—the stock basically held its 200-day line, for instance, and it also mostly held its March low even during the April tariff crash. And since earnings in late April, GEV has changed character, marching higher (on modest volume) back to its highs. A pullback is always possible, but so far it looks like big investors are supporting shares on any dip. We’re OK starting small here or (preferably) on dips of 10 or 20 points, with a relatively loose stop.

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Stock 5

Life360 (LIF)

Why the Strength
The relatively hands-off parenting style of the Generation X years has given way to a more hands-on approach that includes plenty of tracking and location sharing, both in the U.S. and around the world. Enter Life360, which bills itself as the leading family location safety app, where the #1 brand attribute for customers is peace of mind: The San Francisco-based company provides a location-sharing app that allows users to track the real-time location of friends and family members on a private map; its features include location history, alerts for arriving at or leaving designated places, safe driving features and emergency assistance. (The app can also be used for tracking lost items, and the firm is even looking into things like pet tracking as well.) The firm operates a freemium model, where some basic features are available for free, which has helped juice huge uptake in the U.S. (45 million monthly active users in the U.S., 44% of which open the app daily; on average U.S. users open the app 5x per day) and internationally (U.K., Australia and Canada are the top three revenue producers, but it’s up and running in many others), and the firm is putting efforts into developing more revenue sources for that (like advertising). But the big draw remains subscriptions, for which there are three tiers that offer added features (from $8 to $25 per month; all paid subscriptions, called circles, cover the entire family). Growth here has been outstanding, and the company thinks there’s a lot more where that came from: In Q1, revenues leapt 32% and annualized recurring revenue was up 38% on the back of a 26% gain in paid circle memberships and an 8% hike in global revenue per circle (both price hikes as well as many upgrading to higher tiers). Meanwhile, the total user base (free and paid) is gigantic (84 million, up 26% in Q1), helping data sharing and advertising revenue to double and make up around 12% of the top line. Impressively, too, earnings are in the black and EBITDA (which has been positive for 10 quarters in a row) more than tripled in the quarter with a 15% margin, with analysts seeing a continued ramp from here. It’s a simple idea and a very good growth story.

Technical Analysis
LIF made its debut as a publicly traded company last June at 28, surprising the market by foregoing the typical post-IPO drop and instead rallying to 53 by early December. The stock’s long-delayed first decline followed, though, with a reasonable hiccup to start, but then shares saw a sharp dip as the market went over the falls. However, the recovery from there was swift, with the stock powering ahead five weeks in a row before going vertical to new highs after earnings. LIF is a bit thinly traded and has clearly had a nice move, so try to get in on weakness and use a loose leash.

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Stock 6

Nextracker (NXT)

Why the Strength
Nextracker chalked up a strong fiscal year and brushed off concerns on the possible elimination of green energy tax benefits as the solar farm infrastructure provider continues to crank out excellent results. Nextracker is the leader in providing solar trackers to utility-scale developments—these trackers move photovoltaic panels gradually throughout the day so each panel always receives maximum sunlight, thus boosting output. Utility-scale solar farms generate up to 25% more electricity using them compared to fixed panels, which appeals to long-lived projects even though they add about 7% to the upfront cost of a solar farm. The U.S. is Nextracker’s most important market, contributing about 65% of sales. Domestic solar production has been on the rise thanks to Biden-era tax credits on U.S.-made renewable energy equipment and a rebound in demand after pandemic supply chain issues worked themselves out over a year ago. Revenue for fiscal 2025 (ended in March), reported last week, came in at $2.96 billion, better than expected, with $4.22 earnings per share, including a big beat in fiscal Q4 ($1.29 per share topped by 33 cents). The firm’s domestic business stayed strong, and in a good sign for the long term, Europe and Latin America orders picked up markedly, making Nextracker the market share leader in four continents (Australia being the fourth). The business has a backlog of “significantly over” $4.5 billion, a level that keeps growing and which management says will delay any impact from the Trump administration’s removal of Biden-era tax credits for four to five years. Also encouraging is that Nextracker isn’t resting on its laurels: While solar trackers are a simple idea, Nextracker has proprietary technology that does a better job of maximizing sunlight that’s diffused from cloudy days. It’s also been making related acquisitions to expand elsewhere into solar infrastructure outside of tracking systems. For fiscal 2026, consensus is for sales of $3.3 billion, though with EBITDA coming in a few percent below last year’s tally given that international business comes with lower margins than in the U.S. and some heavy investments. Near term, perception will be affected by how quickly any tax credits are cut or phased out, but with a tame valuation (15x trailing earnings), a lot of worries have likely been discounted.

Technical Analysis
NXT double topped in early 2024 near 60 and was nearly cut in half by October before a strong Q2 report brought in some buyers. The rally did OK for a few months, but the weak market pulled NXT down again into this April … though, importantly, shares held above last year’s low. And now we see shares really moving, with earnings, the backlog and hopes for a slower-than-expected tax credit phase-out boosting shares. It’ll be news-driven as the tax bill works its way through Congress, but we’re OK starting a position here or (preferably) on a bit more weakness.

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Stock 7

NRG Energy (NRG)

Why the Strength
Utility stocks aren’t normally considered high-growth, but Houston-based NRG has earned that designation due to its exposure to (among other trends) the white-hot power demand growth for AI data centers. The company is an integrated energy and home services company that provides electricity and natural gas to millions of residential and business customers across North America, while offering a range of energy services, including smart home technologies and related products and services. Aside from its data center exposure, the latter space is where a significant portion its recent growth is coming from, as NRG is focusing on smart home and business technologies (mainly in Texas)—it’s partnered with Renew Home to distribute smart thermostats in Texas as part of the development of a nearly 1 gigawatt (GW) virtual power plant (VPP) project to improve the state’s grid resiliency, while helping customers manage energy costs. (The partnership also involves Google Cloud, which is providing an AI-powered platform for the VPP.) NRG has also acquired Vivint Smart Home to further expand its footprint in the Texas smart home space, as well as giving it a significant presence in Utah. Back to the underlying power story, NRG acquired a portfolio of assets from LS Power comprised of 13 GW of natural gas generation (18 facilities across nine states), plus a six GW commercial and industrial VPP platform located across the Northeastern U.S., which the firm said doubles its own generation while increasing its “asymmetric exposure” to demand growth across U.S. power markets as they tighten. In addition, the company has been making a series of deals to capitalize on demand growth, acquiring Rockland’s 0.7 GW worth of natural gas assets in March and signing supply deals with two data center customers; it’s also working with GE Vernova to develop up to 5.4 GW of new natural gas capacity. On the financial front, NRG saw revenue of $8.6 billion in Q1 that increased 16% year-on-year, plus EBITDA of $1.1 billion that rose 29% and free cash flow of $293 million was miles above the year-ago outflow (all reasons for the share price strength). The company sees a solid return of capital (another $850 million of share buybacks through year-end, plus a 1.1% yielding dividend), and analysts see a long ramp in demand ahead.

Technical Analysis
NRG had a great run starting in late 2023 and continuing into this year before finally hitting a peak near 115 or so in January. That was effectively the top, and when shares fell 32% in March, it looked like a lot of repair work would be needed—but NRG showed relative strength from there, holding that March low in April, snapping back toward its old highs within a month and, of course, going bananas on earnings and the acquisitions last week. If you want in, aim for dips.

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Stock 8

Nutanix (NTNX)

Why the Strength
Nutanix (covered in the March 3 issue) provides a software platform mainly for bigger clients that makes it easier and cheaper to manage hybrid multi-cloud environments, combining compute, storage and networking into a single platform to run apps and data across public and private clouds. The company pioneered this hyper-converged infrastructure (HCI) approach, and it’s a big reason for the platform’s popularity, since it allows for unified management and simplified operations (which reduces operational costs), while reducing network congestion when handling diverse workloads (which improves performance for apps). Although Nutanix has cemented its leadership in the HCI realm, it’s now actively working to build its presence in the AI space with a focus on providing infrastructure solutions that make it easier for businesses to adopt and deploy AI apps. To that end, the firm just rolled out the latest iteration of its Nutanix Enterprise AI (NAI) solution, which integrates with NVIDIA’s AI technologies to streamline the creation and deployment of AI agents. It’s also a key component to Nutanix’s bigger GPT-in-a-Box offering, a ready-made solution for enterprises that want to implement GPT-like capabilities (i.e., generate human-like text based on input prompts) while maintaining control over their data and apps. Analysts expect this product—which is now in its second version—to significantly contribute to the company’s growth, especially in light of the accelerating enterprise AI adoption trend. Another major trend Nutanix is benefiting from is virtualization, which allows for a significant reduction of server costs for businesses by consolidating multiple virtual servers onto a single physical server. Its virtualization solutions, like Acropolis Hypervisor, allow customers to run “virtual machines” and containers in hybrid and multi-cloud environments; Nutanix just announced a partnership with Pure Storage that will allow customers to deploy and manage virtual workloads on a scalable modern infrastructure and which is expected to be available by this summer. Moreover, additional strategic collaborations with Dell, Cisco and Red Hat should keep Nutanix’s pipeline growing and its momentum intact. When the company reports fiscal Q3 earnings (ended April) on May 28, Wall Street expects sales and earnings growth of 19% and 36%, respectively, with steady mid-teens annualized recurring revenue growth likely for a long time to come.

Technical Analysis
We were stopped out of our position in NTNX in early March, with the tariff-related turmoil accounting for the stock’s (and market’s) dip at that time—after hitting a peak at 80, the stock quickly dropped with the rest of the market, eventually finding support at 55 in the first week of April. A few days of base building followed, which ripened the stock for a reversal, with NTNX going nearly vertical for four straight weeks and hitting a new high last week on big volume. If you want in, we’re OK buying some here or on dips of a couple of points, but it’s probably best to keep it small given that earnings are out next Wednesday.

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Stock 9

StandardAero (SARO)

Why the Strength
One of the big attractions of the aerospace sector is that all of the jet engine sales in boom times (like now) leads to a long-term avalanche of follow-on business, with so-called aftermarket services in huge demand as maintenance and repair work is required for these products to stay in the field for 20 to 30 years. StandardAero plays into this theme: It’s a pure play on aftermarket engine repair and overhaul services (which makes up 89% of the business and 80% of cash flow) as well as component repair services (a smaller portion of the business but it sports about twice the profit margin), which are the two fastest-growing areas of the aerospace aftermarket business. The company does 80% of its overall business with engine platforms that are #1 or #2 in their markets, and importantly, it has tons of long-term deals with engine OEMs as well as flight operators (commercial, military and business aviation); 77% of revenues come from clients with long-term agreements, which obviously adds some stability to the business, and the occasional M&A transaction adds to results, too. Like most firms, there are some anticipated tariff impacts, but they should be relatively modest ($15 million this year is the guess), and after a strong Q1, the top brass thinks StandardAero can absorb the costs without affecting results. Indeed, the Q1 report saw revenues lift 16%, EBITDA rise 20% (engine repair was up 16%, but component repair EBITDA was up 32%) and earnings of 19 cents per share topped by a penny—and, even better, the top brass actually nudged guidance higher despite the anticipated tariff impact. To be fair, this isn’t going to be a rapid growth story (expect 10% to 15% top-line growth, though faster EBITDA expansion as margins rise), but there should be a long runway of growth as the aerospace boom leads to more aftermarket business. Interestingly, despite being public just since October, 378 funds have already bought shares, including a couple of top-performing growth outfits.

Technical Analysis
SARO came public near the start of last October and immediately hit the skids, sliding into January before a two-month rally phase that looked solid … but that bounce eventually succumbed to the market’s downturn, with a quick, sharp selloff to new lows. But that was the bottom, and SARO has basically been all up since then—and last week’s earnings-induced pop took shares to six-month highs. We’ll set our buy range near last week’s high, with a stop near the rising 50-day line.

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Stock 10

Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Why the Strength
The concept of renting clothes might seem bizarre to older generations, but the kids of Gen Z and Alpha are increasingly drawn to these services, due partly to their keen focus on high-end fashion and their environmental consciousness—clothing rentals allow them to keep up with the latest luxury fashions at lower costs, while minimizing the environmental impact of buying, traits which are expected to keep the market for peer-to-peer sharing, online rental and recurring clothing subscriptions expanding at a rapid pace in the coming years. Lifestyle retailer Urban Outfitters is known for its on-trend fashion apparel (which has been described as having a “hipster vibe”), footwear and accessories for younger adults, particularly Gen Z women. Aside from its solid retail storefront presence, the Philadelphia-based company is also at the cutting edge of the clothes-renting model thanks to its burgeoning Nuuly brand. The apparel digital subscription service (aimed at younger women) offers a wide selection of rental offerings not only from Urban’s own brands, but also from third-party brands and one-of-a-kind vintage pieces. Nuuly has seen strong subscription and revenue growth, which has helped offset recent weakness in the Urban Outfitters brand segment. In fiscal Q4 (ended January), Nuuly saw revenues soar nearly 79% thanks to a 53% year-on-year increase in average active subscribers; all told, it added a whopping 20,000 subscribers to bring the total to 300,000, and last year saw that brand post its first full year of profitability. Additionally, the Wholesale segment saw a 26% revenue increase, driven by a healthy rise in full-price sales for the Free People brand and an 8% sales increase for the high-end Anthropologie brand, driven by brisk inventory turnover during the Christmas season. Total revenue in Q4 was a record $1.6 billion (up 10%), with EPS of $1.04 booming more than 50% and easily topping expectations. Of course, Nuuly is still a small part of the business (7% of sales), but it’s helping investor perception, with the tariff easing story helping the cause. A slew of investment banks have upped their targets for Urban (a reason for the stock’s strength), and when Urban reports Q1 earnings on Wednesday (post-market), analysts see sales up 8% and earnings up 21%, though many think those will prove conservative.

Technical Analysis
URBN rounded out a base last fall, with earnings in late November serving as the catalyst for a huge rally that took it to new highs shortly after the new year and what looked like the start of a big run. However, shares struggled to overcome resistance at 60, and after two failed attempts, it rolled over in March and fell to 42 by April. However, shares actually found big-volume support near the lows, perked up during the following month, and then catapulted last week after the U.S.-China trade truce. Earnings this week are a risk, of course, so we’ll set our buy range down from here, aiming to enter on a pre- or post-report shakeout.

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Previously Recommended Stocks

The next Cabot Top Ten Trader issue will be published on May 27, 2025.

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