Given where we stood a month ago, you couldn’t have asked for much better action from the market—now it’s a matter of following through: The intermediate-term trend is on the fence, and many individual stocks have been (possibly temporarily) rejected near obvious resistance levels. Thus, if we see further strength this week, turning the trend up for many indexes and allowing some fresh leaders to take off, we’ll look to extend our line—but if the sellers dig in, more patience will be needed. Right now, we’re sticking with our Market Monitor at a level 5, and we’ll adjust if need be in the days ahead.

This week’s list has a lot of strong names, including a few that have recently reacted well to earnings. Our Top Pick is one of the stronger names in one of the strongest growth areas (cybersecurity). We’re OK starting small here.

Stocks are in a much better place than they were a couple weeks ago. That’s what nine consecutive days of gains will do, as earnings season and a cooling of tariff rhetoric have combined to inject some positivity into what was a doom-and-gloom market environment as recently as mid-April. We surely haven’t heard the last about tariffs, and this week’s Fed meeting can always reopen some old wounds. But we can only go with the evidence in front of us, and right now it’s pointing upward. With that in mind, today we add a growth stock recently recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory.

Details inside.

The market continued its strong rebound from its early April lows as the indexes rose all five days last week. The S&P 500 gained 2.9%, the Dow rallied 3% and the Nasdaq advanced by 3.4%.

The market continued its strong rebound from its early April lows as the indexes rose all five days last week. The S&P 500 gained 2.9%, the Dow rallied 3% and the Nasdaq advanced by 3.4%.

We’re putting our mining helmets back on today and taking a position in a speculative micro-cap gold and copper exploration company that’s just about to get the drills turning.

This type of stock is intended to scratch the speculator’s itch. It’s not suitable for investing money that you need. That said, if things go well – and I think there’s a good chance they will – the returns could be spectacular.

But please, go in with eyes wide open. This is supposed to be fun.

The evidence has improved during the past couple of weeks, with our Two-Second Indicator looking much better and, importantly, a Three Day Thrust signal (one of our Blastoff Indicators) flashing green last week, both of which prompted us to put a little money to work last week. Still, while that’s definitely a feather in the bulls’ cap, the primary evidence remains negative, so we’re continuing to hold plenty of cash while setting our sights on next week: If our Tides turn positive and many potential leaders gap on earnings (there are tons of names reporting next week), we’ll definitely be putting a good chunk of money to work ... but as always, we’ll take it as it comes, which today means going slow but staying flexible should the market’s recent good vibes accelerate.

Few industries were more negatively impacted by Covid than the cruise industry. And few have come roaring back faster in Covid’s wake. And yet, share prices haven’t kept up with the record sales and passenger numbers. So today, we recommend a major cruise-industry stock that has the largest disparity between sales and earnings growth and share price growth. We also have updates on all our existing stocks as investors mercifully put a historically choppy April for the market in the rear-view mirror and flip the calendar to what will hopefully be a far more fruitful May.

Details inside. Enjoy!

Cannabis stocks continue to post sharp rallies on rumors of progress on federal policy developments like banking reform and rescheduling. Then the stocks give it all back over the next day or two.

There are two ways to deal with this trend.

“What’s that got to do with the price of eggs?” is an adage that was once commonly used to question the relevance of a particular subject introduced to a conversation. But in light of current economic conditions—and as it pertains to this month’s stock recommendation—that question is entirely relevant.

Indeed, the price of eggs is just one of many concerns for millions of Americans today as inflation remains a thorn for the economy and for policymakers. Record-high egg prices have become emblematic of the larger question of inflation’s persistence, particularly for retail food costs.

After an ugly start to the week on Monday of last week, stocks rallied very impressively as the S&P 500 gained 4.6%, the Dow added 2.5% and the Nasdaq surged higher by 6.7%.

The past week or so definitely showed some very encouraging action, with one of the key “blastoff” indicators we track turning green on Thursday. So does that mean we’re off to the races? Well, we wouldn’t go there, at least not yet: The intermediate-term trend of the market and most stocks are still down, and it’s not unusual at all to see some near-term wobbles after this kind of blastoff signal. All in all, we think there’s enough good vibes to extend your line a bit—but we don’t advise buying hand over fist as we’re still looking to see added confirmation. We’ll bump up our Market Monitor two notches to a level 5.

This week’s list is full of resilient names, though many have earnings coming up, so be aware of those dates. Our Top Pick has a great story, great numbers and a resilient chart, with shares back near their highs after a bullish earnings reaction. Start small here or on dips.

It was a much better week for the market, and even more so our portfolio, as all but two of our existing 20 stocks were up at least 2%. Of course, there’s a lot of ground to make up from the damage done by “Liberation Day” at the start of the month, but it’s possible the market has turned a corner and a glorious month of May awaits for U.S. stocks. In case it doesn’t, however, today we beef up our overseas exposure by adding our first ETF in a while. It’s a fund just recommended by Carl Delfeld to his Cabot Explorer audience – and one that aims to take advantage of recent strength in European stocks.

Details inside.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent developments concerning Tyson Foods (TSN) and Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), with a particular emphasis on exit strategies for both stocks.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic, but pick your spots. The evidence remains more good than bad, and many growth stocks are acting well—that said, the flies in the ointment we’ve repeatedly mentioned are still hanging around and, near term, many stocks are extended to the upside. We’re still leaning bullish, but tonight we’re going to stand pat, holding what we have and seeing how the market and stocks behave in the days ahead. Our cash position remains in the neighborhood of 30%.

Small caps have bounced around this week, taking a break from the rally that began on September 11 and continued through the 19^th.

Behind the scenes, analysts have been increasing their earnings expectations for the asset class. This is largely because rates are falling, but also because the economy is holding up.

Value stocks are starting to play catch-up.

The Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (VTV), a good proxy for value stocks, is up 9% since the first week of August, more than half its year-to-date gain of 16.6%. While value stocks still trail the S&P 500 (+20.9% YTD) and growth stocks (the Nasdaq is +22.4% YTD), the gap is narrowing. Now that the Fed is finally cutting interest rates from multi-decade highs, perhaps this “in name only” bull market will spread to more corners of the market beyond just the Magnificent Seven, artificial intelligence stocks, and the other mostly tech-related plays that have carried this 23-month rally.

The market is hot stuff again. The S&P made a new high this week after making up all the early September losses and then some. It is the 40^th record close for the index, which is now up 20% YTD with another quarter left.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent developments concerning Duluth Holdings (DLTH), Gannett (GCI) and Zillow (Z), with a particular emphasis on the latter due to recent interest rate-related strength.

Despite our focus on primarily mid-stage turnarounds with exceptional momentum potential in recent weeks, I’m looking for potential opportunities in early-stage candidates due to the additional improvement in the market’s intermediate-term outlook, thanks to the Fed’s latest rate cut.

Finally! The Fed met yesterday and, as expected, began a rate cutting cycle. The market, and small caps, love it.

The magnitude of the September cut, 50 bps, is a bit of a surprise. Despite what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference yesterday, this is partially a make-up cut. Since there was no meeting in August, and the Fed didn’t cut in July, it was time to make a statement.

The Federal Reserve has voted to lower interest rates by a half percentage point, the first since 2020 and more than many expected. The overwhelming Fed board vote suggests more rate reductions are likely this year. This Fed move was clearly already baked into markets but keep in mind that the Fed only controls overnight interbank interest rates. Nevertheless, this action will help support the market and boost interest rate-sensitive stocks such as real estate and utilities.

The Fed went big!

Everyone knew Jerome Powell and company were going to (finally) cut the federal funds rate for the first time in four and a half years on Wednesday. The question was by how much – 50 basis points (0.50%) or 25 basis points (0.25%)? To my mild surprise (but not to Wall Street’s – the options market had swung to a 59% probability that it would be 50 bps prior to the announcement), the Fed opted for the larger cut, slashing rates from 5.25-5.5% to a 4.75-5.25% range. So far, the market seems unsure how to take the hefty cut – all three major indexes were up more than half a percent immediately following yesterday’s 2 p.m. ET announcement, but then were narrowly in the red by day’s end.

It’s a new era, a changing of the guard. This week a Fed easing cycle starts as the Fed will begin to lower the Federal Funds rate after the steepest hiking cycle in decades. The easing cycle is expected to last for years.

The Fed’s moment has finally arrived.

The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate at the steepest pace since the 1980s in 2022 and 2023, from 0% to 5.5% over just an 18-month span. The Fed Funds rate has remained at a multi-decade high of 5.50% for more than a year. The Fed is expected to begin cutting the rate this week and will likely continue to do so for the next two years.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent news developments concerning Nokia (NOK), Vodaphone (VOD), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Fidelity National (FIS) and B2GOLD (BTG), with a particular emphasis on the latter due to recent precious metal market strength.

Leonardo DRS (DRS) Rising

EverQuote (EVER) and TransMedics (TMDX) Deliver

For those who are new and wish to enter a trade, all of the details are listed in the alert (as always) for those wanting to initiate a position. As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.

As stated in our latest weekly update (out today), we locked in profits in both XLU and KO at expiration last Friday. Per our income wheel guidelines, it’s time to start selling more premium. Our total return has pushed to all-time highs of just over 145%. Remember, investing/trading is a marathon and not a sprint, and Income Trader has proven this mantra in just under two years. We continue to be thrilled with the results.

At 6:30 AM ET this morning Docebo (DCBO) dropped its Q4 earnings press release. The company operates a learning platform for both internal and external learners and, yes, AI is mentioned in the first sentence of the press release!

DKNG continues to be a great addition to the portfolio. We recently locked in 17.1% in options premium and capital gains. Our total return is over 39% since adding the position to the portfolio. Now it’s time to start the income wheel cycle over again by selling puts in DKNG. Hopefully, our good fortune continues.

Vertiv (VRT) Snaps Back, Joby (JOBY) On Watch, Rivian (RIVN) Q4 Raises Eyebrows

Weave (WEAV) reported Q4 results after the close yesterday that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines while also giving 2024 guidance above consensus. Revenue grew 21.2% to $45.7 million (beating by $1.5 million) while EPS of -$0.01 improved by $0.05 over last year and beat consensus by $0.03.

Shares of Enovix (ENVX) are trading down today following the Q4 report and conference call last night, most likely because there was nothing major revealed during the call (nothing huge was expected). That said, there were a few incremental positives and the story remains on track.

Shares of Vertiv (VRT) have been flat (at best) to down around 10% today after the company reported Q4 results prior to market open. While the stock’s action today isn’t confidence-inspiring, it’s likely a reflection of super high expectations heading into the event and some turbulence in growth-oriented areas of the market.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to hold some cash as leadership stocks correct. For the here and now, things are getting trickier, but most leaders aren’t flashing big-picture abnormal action, and our market timing indicators are still positive; thus, we’re still taking things on a stock-by-stock basis while keeping a chunk of cash on the sideline. In the Model Portfolio, because we’ve already built up a 34% cash position, we’re being a bit patient to see how this week’s dip plays out—that said, we are switching CrowdStrike (CRWD), Elastic (ESTC) and Shift4 (FOUR) to Hold ratings and will take it day-to-day from here. Details below.

I’m going to take some profits off the table today ahead of the NVDA announcement. For those that wish to hold for further profits, please be aware of the risks.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.