After an ugly start to the week on Monday, stocks rallied very impressively as the S&P 500 gained 4.6%, the Dow added 2.5% and the Nasdaq surged higher by 6.7%.

After an ugly start to the week on Monday, stocks rallied very impressively as the S&P 500 gained 4.6%, the Dow added 2.5% and the Nasdaq surged higher by 6.7%.

Markets recovered some gains yesterday following a climb down on both stiff reciprocal China tariffs and speculation that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell might be fired. Explorer stocks had a good week with Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) up 9%, while DBS Bank (DBSDY) shares were up 7.7% this week following last week’s 6.9% gain.

Today, we add a new ETF with exposure to a very particular European sector that should be immune to the ongoing tariff wars.

Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea we need to address our stock positions coming out of April expiration, all of which we are going to sell as the market continues to be under pressure.

It’s been a tough market. The S&P started this week down about 6% for the month of April, over 10% YTD, and over 14% from the high. And that was before Monday’s selloff. It is entirely possible that the market falls back to a new low and an official bear market.

The tariff uncertainty is continuing, and it could get worse. A bad headline could roil the market any day. We’re not out of the woods yet. The market could get worse before it gets better. But it will get better at some point.

Investing for dividends and income is a longer-term proposition. Investors typically don’t jump in and out of these stocks in a short time. You have to hold the stock long enough for the dividend to make a difference. Although the market remains troubling in the near term, there are some great opportunities for longer-term investors.

The market continues to exhibit softness on persistent worries over (what else?) the tariff situation, and it’s clear that a re-test of the recent lows is underway. While there are some encouraging signs on the technical front, the primary evidence is still negative, with the major indexes remaining under their key trend lines. Bottom line: Patience will likely be needed before a sustained advance can develop. Accordingly, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at level 3.

This week’s list has a fair number of stocks that should be able to shake off tariff-induced headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing solid relative strength and has excellent potential in a fast-growing business.

Another down week – and down day – for stocks as tariff and inflation anxieties continue to run rampant. We may be headed toward a re-test of the post-Liberation Day lows from the beginning of the month. Fortunately, most of our stocks are holding up well, with no big losses in the last week despite a 4.3% decline in the S&P 500. In fact, a number of our stocks are thriving. Today, we add another stock that’s going against the grain of the market. It’s a new recommendation from Tyler Laundon to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience. It’s the kind of all-weather holding that can keep its head above water in this volatile market – and perhaps thrive if/when the tariff dam finally breaks.

Despite an onslaught of tariff headlines and rumors, the holiday-shortened week was mostly quiet outside of a nasty sell-off on Wednesday. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had fallen 2.7% and the Nasdaq had declined by 2.6%.

Despite an onslaught of tariff headlines and rumors, the holiday-shortened week was mostly quiet outside of a nasty sell-off on Wednesday. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had fallen 2.7% and the Nasdaq had declined by 2.6%.

The market has bounced off of last week’s low, and given the number of secondary extremes seen during that selling panic, we think the odds are good that low will hold for a while--if not longer. That said, bottoms are usually a process, not an event. so there’s a good chance the market is now building a bottom area, which will likely prove hectic on a day-to-day basis (as we’ve seen this week) but allow the leaders of the next advance to start separating from the pack.

That’s a first step, and we’re busy building our watch list--but when you look at the primary evidence, all of it remains negative, as the trends of most everything are still down. Thus, while we won’t rule out a small new position or two if the market continues to stabilize, we’re remaining very close to shore and keeping our eyes on the big prize -- hopping on some new leaders early in the next sustained uptrend.

Despite the crazy market, there are still stocks out there that are acting extremely well.

This month’s Issue covers five standout performers in the sports betting, gold mining, natural foods, insurance and pharma markets.

The previous weekend’s worry about a crash last Monday proved to be incorrect as the market had some early-week struggles, but those were, at least in the short term, washed away on Wednesday as the indexes exploded higher. By week’s end, the S&P 500 had rallied 5.7%, the Dow had gained 5%, and the Nasdaq had rebounded by 7.3%.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay flexible. From a top-down perspective, the market and growth stocks are basically in the confines of correction/consolidation, though many individual names continue to handle themselves well, with many we own surging to new highs in the past couple of days. Last week, we pruned two names, but tonight we’ll add a half-sized position in Argenx (ARGX), a name that’s been on our watch list and is set up well for higher prices if the market cooperates. Our cash position will now be around 41%.

After a couple of tough weeks, maybe due to a lingering yen carry-trade impact and a little too much concern over a weakening economy, the market has acted much better the last couple of days.

It seems we’re in one of those periods where there isn’t a major market catalyst, even though we’re getting inflation reports, presidential debates and a Fed meeting. So the market is just bouncing around.

The Magnificent Seven have run into a brick wall in the second half of 2024.

After carrying the market in the first half of the year, and through much of 2023, the seven largest mega-cap tech stocks – Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) – have all seen the air let out of their balloons in the last two and a half months, or longer in some cases. On average, those seven stocks, which comprise roughly 30% of the S&P 500, are down 3.7% since the beginning of July. Not coincidentally, the S&P 500 as a whole is flat, after being up about 15% in the first six months of the year, during which six of the Mag. 7 (TSLA was down) performed even better.

Back on August 28 and September 3, I suggested buying cannabis stocks in the severe weakness that put a lot of cannabis investors in a deeply distressed state. I cited the excessive negativity and the potential for a bullish update from presidential candidate Donald Trump on his cannabis policy.

On September 9 we got the Trump update, and it was very bullish for the sector. Cannabis stocks moved up sharply.

That wasn’t a good start to September. The holiday-shortened week was the worst week for the market in two years as recession fears reemerged. Here are the results from last week.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent news developments concerning Nokia (NOK), Tyson Foods (TSN), Baxter International (BAX), Gannett (GCI), and Alibaba Holdings (BABA). We also discuss the latest nationwide headline development that could have a material impact on AMMO Inc. (POWW).

This was a rather tough week for stocks though the financial media always goes overboard calling a 2% drop in the Nasdaq index a “plummet.”

For many analysts, copper prices have long been considered a better leading indicator regarding the health of the global economy. Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs has exited a long-term bullish position on copper while slashing its price forecast for 2025 by almost $5,000 a ton. The bank has been one of the biggest supporters of the industrial strategic metal, but the increasingly weak Chinese economy has crimped demand, plus excess inventories overhang supply resulting in copper prices being down almost 20% since May.

Welcome to the post-Labor Day market. A sobered-up investor can be an ornery investor.

Stocks kicked off the first trading day after Labor Day on a decidedly negative note. The August manufacturing number was still somewhat weak, but all eyes are on the August jobs number that comes out Friday. It was the weak July jobs number that prompted recession fears and the market selloff in early August. Another bad number could reignite recession worries that had faded in the second part of August.

It’s the post-Labor Day market. Investors tend to start paying attention again after the summer. This refocus prompted one of the worst selloffs this year.

Investors were positive about things in the middle of August before they went on vacation and stopped paying attention. The market rode out the rest of the month in the same form. But investors coming back to real life after the summer realized that there might be more to worry about.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Foot Locker (FL), along with our decision to completely exit our position in the stock and take profits. We also discuss the latest addition to the portfolio in the form of Zillow (Z).

WHAT TO DO NOW: We think the strong action from the mini-panic low in early August is a good sign the next big move is up—but the timing of that move is less certain, possibly getting going soon, but it could also take more time to set up. Our market timing indicators are improving, and so we’ll do a little more buying tonight, but we’re OK going slow here to see how the rally progresses from here. In the Model Portfolio, we’re adding a half-sized stake in Shift4 Payments (FOUR) and putting On Holding (ONON) back on Buy—though we’re also holding on to a cash position of around 32% and want to see further upside soon before putting more cash to work.

The S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (IJR) closed out last week on a high note as the index rallied 3.4% on Friday following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole that confirmed what investors were expecting, that an interest rate cut in September is likely.

Small caps have chopped around this week, inching a little lower but not making any dramatic moves.

The market is now pricing in a roughly 35% probability of a 50-bp rate cut next month, and just over 100 bp of easing by the end of this year.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

Shares of Crocs (CROX) are breaking out to multi-month highs above 120 today after Q4 earnings sailed past expectations (not a complete surprise given the January 8 pre-release) thanks to outperformance of the Crocs brand (HeyDude brand was in line with expectations).

We are recommending shares of CNH Industrial (CNHI) as a new Buy. The company is a major producer of agriculture (80% of sales) and construction (20% of sales) equipment for customers around the world and is the #2 ag equipment producer in North America (behind Deere). It also provides related supplies, services and financing.

Okay, it’s time to start rolling the remainder of our February 16 short calls. I’m going to start with our GLD position in All-Weather and then move on to the Yale Endowment Portfolio followed by the various Dogs of the Dow Portfolios.

Shares of Shopify (SHOP) are giving up last week’s gains (plus a little) today after the company reported Q4 results before the market opened. Revenue growth of 24.5% to $2.16 billion was solid (beat by 3.7%) as was Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growth of 23% (roughly 10 points faster than broad eCommerce growth) and adjusted EPS of $0.34 ($0.04 better than expected).

WHAT TO DO NOW: Hold some cash and take things on a stock-by-stock basis. The market is getting whacked today as inflation remains higher than expected, which has interest rates rallying sharply and expectations of Fed rate cuts sliding. That said, the trends of most indexes and stocks are still fine, and with 30% in cash coming into today, we’re not overreacting—but we will sell one-third of our Arista Networks (ANET) position, which is one of many tech names getting whacked after a good-not-great quarterly report, while placing PulteGroup (PHM) on Hold. That will leave us with around 33% in cash, which we’ll hang on to as we see how this pullback plays out.

I’m selling more call premium in GDX today. We’ve reaped most of the call premium from our February 16, 2024, 29 calls so I’m going to buy them back and sell more premium going out to the March expiration.

Shares of Pinterest (PINS) are selling off today after Q4 earnings came in slightly below expectations (food and beverage weakness a culprit), though the big-picture story remains one of a company that’s made a number of operational adjustments and launched a series of growth initiatives that should drive higher revenue and EPS growth in 2024. I think the recovery story is intact and the stock’s worth owning. Keeping at buy half.

As I stated yesterday, I’ll be rolling our February expiration short call positions into March expiration over the next few days. Moreover, per usual this time of year, I’ll be selling our LEAPS in the passive portfolios (All-Weather and Yale Endowment) at March expiration and buying new LEAPS going out to the January 2026 expiration.

I’ll be sending out alerts for several of our Fundamentals portfolios over the next several days, most likely stretching into early next week, as we stay mechanical and roll our February 16, 2024, calls into various March expiration cycles.

Intapp (INTA) is down about 10% today (downside move wipes out January gain and puts stock at support near 40) after reporting Q2 fiscal 2024 results. I don’t love the reaction but think this will prove to be “noise” and that INTA remains a supremely compelling stock to own.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.