Issues
The market continues to exhibit softness on persistent worries over (what else?) the tariff situation, and it’s clear that a re-test of the recent lows is underway. While there are some encouraging signs on the technical front, the primary evidence is still negative, with the major indexes remaining under their key trend lines. Bottom line: Patience will likely be needed before a sustained advance can develop. Accordingly, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at level 3.
This week’s list has a fair number of stocks that should be able to shake off tariff-induced headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing solid relative strength and has excellent potential in a fast-growing business.
This week’s list has a fair number of stocks that should be able to shake off tariff-induced headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing solid relative strength and has excellent potential in a fast-growing business.
Another down week – and down day – for stocks as tariff and inflation anxieties continue to run rampant. We may be headed toward a re-test of the post-Liberation Day lows from the beginning of the month. Fortunately, most of our stocks are holding up well, with no big losses in the last week despite a 4.3% decline in the S&P 500. In fact, a number of our stocks are thriving. Today, we add another stock that’s going against the grain of the market. It’s a new recommendation from Tyler Laundon to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience. It’s the kind of all-weather holding that can keep its head above water in this volatile market – and perhaps thrive if/when the tariff dam finally breaks.
Despite an onslaught of tariff headlines and rumors, the holiday-shortened week was mostly quiet outside of a nasty sell-off on Wednesday. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had fallen 2.7% and the Nasdaq had declined by 2.6%.
Despite an onslaught of tariff headlines and rumors, the holiday-shortened week was mostly quiet outside of a nasty sell-off on Wednesday. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had fallen 2.7% and the Nasdaq had declined by 2.6%.
The market has bounced off of last week’s low, and given the number of secondary extremes seen during that selling panic, we think the odds are good that low will hold for a while--if not longer. That said, bottoms are usually a process, not an event. so there’s a good chance the market is now building a bottom area, which will likely prove hectic on a day-to-day basis (as we’ve seen this week) but allow the leaders of the next advance to start separating from the pack.
That’s a first step, and we’re busy building our watch list--but when you look at the primary evidence, all of it remains negative, as the trends of most everything are still down. Thus, while we won’t rule out a small new position or two if the market continues to stabilize, we’re remaining very close to shore and keeping our eyes on the big prize -- hopping on some new leaders early in the next sustained uptrend.
That’s a first step, and we’re busy building our watch list--but when you look at the primary evidence, all of it remains negative, as the trends of most everything are still down. Thus, while we won’t rule out a small new position or two if the market continues to stabilize, we’re remaining very close to shore and keeping our eyes on the big prize -- hopping on some new leaders early in the next sustained uptrend.
Despite the crazy market, there are still stocks out there that are acting extremely well.
This month’s Issue covers five standout performers in the sports betting, gold mining, natural foods, insurance and pharma markets.
This month’s Issue covers five standout performers in the sports betting, gold mining, natural foods, insurance and pharma markets.
The previous weekend’s worry about a crash last Monday proved to be incorrect as the market had some early-week struggles, but those were, at least in the short term, washed away on Wednesday as the indexes exploded higher. By week’s end, the S&P 500 had rallied 5.7%, the Dow had gained 5%, and the Nasdaq had rebounded by 7.3%.
We think the odds favor the market has found a short-term low (last Monday) amid lots of panic selling, and it’s probably starting to repair the damage from the prior few weeks … but that process is likely to take some time, as the market deals with the tariff and economic uncertainty and as new potential leaders try to round out launching pads. Of course, how the market acts from here will be key, so we’re remaining flexible, but we always advise going with what’s in front of us, and right now the odds favor more patience will likely be needed before a sustained advance can develop. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 3.
As the correction has gone on, it’s become easier to spot the names that are resisting the decline. Our Top Pick is a newer name to most and it’s shown accelerating accumulation the past three weeks.
As the correction has gone on, it’s become easier to spot the names that are resisting the decline. Our Top Pick is a newer name to most and it’s shown accelerating accumulation the past three weeks.
Tariffs aren’t gone, but the 90-day pause has served as a tourniquet for a market that was bleeding out. Who knows what this week will bring after total extremes the first two weeks of April. But for now, relative calm has been restored. So today we capitalize on it by adding a growth stock with momentum via Mike Cintolo’s Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The previous weekend’s worry about a crash last Monday proved to be incorrect as the market had some early-week struggles, but those were at least in the short term washed away on Wednesday as the indexes exploded higher. By week’s end the S&P 500 had rallied 5.7%, the Dow had gained 5%, and the Nasdaq had rebounded by 7.3%.
The previous weekend’s worry about a crash last Monday proved to be incorrect as the market had some early-week struggles, but those were at least in the short term washed away on Wednesday as the indexes exploded higher. By week’s end the S&P 500 had rallied 5.7%, the Dow had gained 5%, and the Nasdaq had rebounded by 7.3%.
On the surface, the economic numbers still look pretty good. Although unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% last month, the number is still low. Jobless claims are down; jobs added, up. Manufacturing looks good, but housing continues to be weak, due to sticky prices and high interest rates.
But the good economic news is on pause, due to tariffs. Already, we’ve seen the 30-year mortgage rate rise to 6.85%, and economists are back to predicting a recession, based on rising business and consumer costs related to the tariffs—which are not yet reflected in the economic stats.
But the good economic news is on pause, due to tariffs. Already, we’ve seen the 30-year mortgage rate rise to 6.85%, and economists are back to predicting a recession, based on rising business and consumer costs related to the tariffs—which are not yet reflected in the economic stats.
Updates
The market has been just great! The S&P 500 was up 5.7% in November and now has a 26.47% year-to-date return. This adds to the 26% market return last year.
Stocks were riding high, and the election provided a further boost as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward. The cyclical stocks have led the recent charge. The best-performing market sectors since the election are finance, consumer discretionary, and energy.
Stocks were riding high, and the election provided a further boost as investors expect a higher level of economic growth going forward. The cyclical stocks have led the recent charge. The best-performing market sectors since the election are finance, consumer discretionary, and energy.
Small-cap stocks continue to act extremely well, and we have a new all-time high for the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. It hit 1,520 on an intra-day basis on Monday, then closed at 1,545. Both levels surpass the previous all-time high of 1,477 from November 2021.
The index is hanging tight to those levels today too, trading near 1,537.
The index is hanging tight to those levels today too, trading near 1,537.
Centrus Energy (LEU) shares jumped almost 19% this past week and are up 70% in the last six months. Dutch Bros (BROS) shares gained 6.3% this week following weekly gains of 10.6% and 36%.
Tariffs took center stage this week as the incoming Trump administration indicated day-one 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and some more for China as well.
Tariffs took center stage this week as the incoming Trump administration indicated day-one 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and some more for China as well.
After a brief dip following the post-election euphoria, the market is right back to a new high.
So far, the promise of stronger economic growth is more than offsetting the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. As a result, new sectors have emerged as market leaders. Cyclical sectors have taken off. The financial, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the market. Those sectors are up 9.3%, 5.7%, and 8.6% respectively in the three weeks since the election.
So far, the promise of stronger economic growth is more than offsetting the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. As a result, new sectors have emerged as market leaders. Cyclical sectors have taken off. The financial, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the market. Those sectors are up 9.3%, 5.7%, and 8.6% respectively in the three weeks since the election.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Alcoa (AA), Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BNT), Intel (INTC) and Starbucks (SBUX).
The broad market outlook remains bullish for the rest of this year and early next year, but with the possibility for weakness to emerge heading further into 2025.
The broad market outlook remains bullish for the rest of this year and early next year, but with the possibility for weakness to emerge heading further into 2025.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but again, be sure to keep your feet on the ground. The pullback last week was tedious, and our Two-Second Indicator is looking iffy, but the market’s trends have remained up and growth stocks are still very strong. We sold one-third of our Palatir (PLTR) position earlier this week, booking partial profits in a good winner, and tonight we’re going to average up in Samsara (IOT), buying another 5% stake, which will leave us with around 19% in cash. Details below.
Quick Note: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, you will receive next week’s Small-Cap update a day early, on Wednesday, November 27, 2024.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index raced higher right after the election, gave a little back last week, found support at the previous all-time high early this week, and is now rallying again.
I think the small-cap story is starting to get out there and driving a wave of interest from investors who haven’t given small caps much thought for a few years. There is so much potential to rally from here that it can be a little hard not to get too bullish.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index raced higher right after the election, gave a little back last week, found support at the previous all-time high early this week, and is now rallying again.
I think the small-cap story is starting to get out there and driving a wave of interest from investors who haven’t given small caps much thought for a few years. There is so much potential to rally from here that it can be a little hard not to get too bullish.
Tesla (TSLA) is getting lots of headlines these days, and for good reason.
Their CEO and founder, Elon Musk, was tabbed by President-elect Donald Trump to head up something called the Department of Government Efficiency (along with Vivek Ramaswamy); their stock price is up 57% in the last month; and the company is coming off its first truly encouraging quarterly earnings report in a year. Anyone who invested in TSLA a year ago, five years ago, or 13 years ago, when our Mike Cintolo first recommended the stock in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, has made a LOT of money.
But another company has surpassed Tesla as the biggest EV seller in the world. And today, we add it to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio.
Their CEO and founder, Elon Musk, was tabbed by President-elect Donald Trump to head up something called the Department of Government Efficiency (along with Vivek Ramaswamy); their stock price is up 57% in the last month; and the company is coming off its first truly encouraging quarterly earnings report in a year. Anyone who invested in TSLA a year ago, five years ago, or 13 years ago, when our Mike Cintolo first recommended the stock in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, has made a LOT of money.
But another company has surpassed Tesla as the biggest EV seller in the world. And today, we add it to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio.
After a huge post-election rally, the market leveled off.
The S&P 500 soared 5% in the three days after the election. Since then, it hasn’t pulled back with any significance, but it has stopped going up.
The S&P 500 soared 5% in the three days after the election. Since then, it hasn’t pulled back with any significance, but it has stopped going up.
The market leveled off last week after the huge election surge. Stocks are trying to find a more sober post-election footing.
The S&P 500 was down very slightly last week after soaring 5% in the three days following the election. The initial reaction to the Trump victory was higher growth expectations and a surge in cyclical stocks countered by a spike in interest rates. We’ll see if those trends continue after the market fully digests the election.
The S&P 500 was down very slightly last week after soaring 5% in the three days following the election. The initial reaction to the Trump victory was higher growth expectations and a surge in cyclical stocks countered by a spike in interest rates. We’ll see if those trends continue after the market fully digests the election.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Barrick Gold (GOLD), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Intel (INTC), Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
The favorable liquidity backdrop should continue for the rest of Q4, which is ideal for initiating new turnaround trading positions.
The favorable liquidity backdrop should continue for the rest of Q4, which is ideal for initiating new turnaround trading positions.
Trump’s victory has given the S&P 600 SmallCap Index the jolt it needed to break out above this year’s overhead resistance at 1,465.
This is what it looks like on a daily chart going back about a year ...
This is what it looks like on a daily chart going back about a year ...
Alerts
WHAT TO DO NOW: While a couple handfuls of mega-cap stocks act well, we continue to see more stocks hit air pockets than get going on the upside, which, combined with our mixed market timing indicators, has us staying relatively close to shore. Today we’re going to sell one-third of our stake in Cava (CAVA)—like so many names, the stock has been unable to break through resistance, and now it (and its peer group) has come under heavy selling pressure. Our cash position will now be just over 40%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s evidence remains unchanged, with a choppy, narrow and challenging environment. Many stocks are hanging in there, but there continue to be air pockets here and there, and our goal is to get out of names that are truly breaking down while holding (and possibly adding) resilient growth titles. Tonight, we’re going to sell PulteGroup (PHM), which hasn’t been able to bounce and cracked support today on a big rise in rates. Our cash position will be around 37%, which we’ll hold onto tonight but could put some back to work in the days ahead.
Shares of Rivian (RIVN) are trading up double digits today (though well off their highs) on news of a staged equity investment and joint venture (JV) with Volkswagen (VWAPY). One of the biggest concerns with Rivian (and other early-stage EV manufacturers) is access to capital and gaining enough manufacturing scale to get to cash flow positive. This deal with Volkswagen addresses much of that concern.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The shine seems to have come off gold and gold miners recently so we’re going to step aside from Alamos Gold (AGI) at just a hair above our entry price.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.