April 15, 2025
Stock on Watch – Uber (UBER)
After a week of insane market volatility, in the last two trading days that wild action has disappeared, and it’s gotten a touch boring. I never in a million years would have expected the day-to-day volatility to disappear so quickly, but I’m also not complaining. Hopefully this continues and we get back to normal trading conditions.
In terms of option action, much like the market, option activity has gone super quiet as well. If I were to read anything into the market calming down, and option action going somewhat silent, I would assume most traders are on the sidelines waiting for a catalyst to again lower exposure or to ramp up the buying.
And while the market has slowed down, I continue to shape, and then re-shape, my watchlist, which brings me to …
As I wrote yesterday, Uber (UBER) stock has stood out amidst the carnage as the stock is within a couple dollars of its recent highs. Super impressive action! And today, a trader bought these calls looking for a move to recent highs in the months to come:
Buyer of 4,000 Uber (UBER) June 82.5 Calls for $2.40 – Stock at 74
I like the look of UBER a lot. However …
The market is somewhat in no man’s land … the crash has stopped, but any sign of positive momentum has been sold into. For that reason, I am going to keep UBER on my watchlist (for now).
April 14, 2025
Weekly Update
The previous weekend’s worry about a crash last Monday proved to be incorrect as the market had some early-week struggles, but those were at least in the short term washed away on Wednesday as the indexes exploded higher. By week’s end the S&P 500 had rallied 5.7%, the Dow had gained 5%, and the Nasdaq had rebounded by 7.3%.
Stocks on Watch and What Traders are Saying
Virtually no stocks look good given the carnage of the past several weeks, though interestingly I have a growing list of stocks that have been shaping up, including:
RBRK stock gapped up on earnings and extended as high as 75 before the market melted down which sent the shares as low as 48. However, since that low the stock has rallied nicely and closed Friday at 59. Like all stocks, RBRK has some work to do, but it’s showing signs as the stock never truly died.
UBER has held up very well despite the market meltdown, and is trading just $4 short of its monthly high. Very intriguing relative strength.
PLTR has been on my watchlist for months and has been extremely volatile, but when stepping back, the stock looks great compared to the market and its peers having closed Friday at 88, which is just above the 80/85 level the stock has mostly held (though it did trade as low as 65 at the market bottom).
GE looks like all of the stocks mentioned above … essentially, it gave up some ground but hardly died.
HOOD traded as low as 30 early last week before rallying nicely and closing Friday at 44. This stock has some crypto elements to it, so it’s volatile, but big picture the stock looks decent.
Moving on …
As I wrote on Thursday call buying was picking up steam in China/Tariff related plays including these trades:
Buyer of 1,000 Alibaba (BABA) June 70 Calls (exp. 2027) for $48 – Stock at 107
Buyer of 1,200 Alibaba (BABA) September 110 Calls for $12.95 – Stock at 106
Buyer of 1,000 Nike (NKE) September 70 Calls for $1.60 – Stock at 55
Buyer of 1,500 Nike (NKE) August 57.5 Calls for $5 – Stock at 55
Buyer of 5,000 Nike (NKE) May 60 Calls for $1.75 – Stock at 54.
This action continued on Friday despite the tariff war between the U.S. and China seemingly escalating (though it maybe cooled this past weekend), including these trades:
Buyer of 10,000 Alibaba (BABA) June 120 Calls for $4.70 – Stock at 103 (rolled from out-of-the-money December calls)
Buyer of 10,000 Alibaba (BABA) July 125 Calls for $4.65 – Stock at 103 (rolled from out-of-the-money December calls)
Buyer of 3,000 Baidu (BIDU) June 100 Calls for $2.10 – Stock at 81.5
Buyer of 150,000 China Internet ETF (KWEB) April 35 Calls (exp. 4/25) for $0.40 – Stock at 30.5.
I do wonder if there is a resolution to this situation coming as China stocks held up very well last week and this call buying is definitely something.
And while I would like to believe this tariff battle will end and we can get back to “normal” trading, I do want to note that the Trump administration has floated the idea of de-listing China stocks, which would be a total headache/nightmare for buyers of options on these stocks.
Finally, I wanted to bring to your attention big call buy in gold player Newmont Mining (NEM) on Friday, as the precious metal busted out to a new high. Here is that big longer-term trade:
Buyer of 25,000 Newmont Mining (NEM) January 65 Calls (exp. 2027) for $9 – Stock at 55.
Volatility
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) closed the week at 37, or down nearly 23 points from its highs from Monday morning. Of note, I would not expect the VIX to be back below 20 for some time as traders will be hedging on nearly every wiggle of the market. That hedging, as well as the continued wild market movement should keep the VIX above 25-30 for some time I’m afraid.
Option Order Flow was fairly mixed this past week as my Options Barometer came in at:
Monday – 5
Tuesday – 5
Wednesday – 5
Thursday - 5
Friday – 5
Events for the Week to Come
Once again this week will be all about tariffs and moves in the bond market and the dollar. Until these situations calm down, nothing else matters.
Though of note, earnings season starts to get a bit more interesting this week as more and more companies report including Goldman Sachs (GS) on Monday, Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) on Tuesday and Netflix (NFLX) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) on Thursday.
Open Positions
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) November 43 Calls – Interestingly, FCX rallied nicely last week and into those gains call buyers ramped up exposure looking for a move higher this week, including these trades:
Friday - Buyer of 4,000 Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) April 35.5 Calls for $0.50 – Stock at 32.5
Buyer of 5,000 Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) April 37.5 Calls for $0.20 – Stock at 32.5.
Grab Holdings (GRAB) January 5 Calls – GRAB continues to look decent despite the market meltdown. I think this stock could come alive, IF the market gets in gear.
Marvell (MRVL) June 115 Calls – We need a MONSTER rally for our MRVL trade to come alive. I’m not hopeful, unfortunately.
Financials ETF (XLF) June 50 Calls – The XLF had a nice week as the Financials rallied 9%. Earnings from components of the XLF, such as GS/BAC, will move the group this week (along with the tariff back and forth).
Jets ETF (JETS) January 26 Calls (exp. 2026) – The JETS continue to be under pressure as the potential recession story gains ground. Hopefully the tariff situation is resolved, a recession is averted, and the JETS gets back in gear this summer/later this year.
Starbucks (SBUX) January 110 Calls – SBUX bounced nicely from its Monday low, though our trade needs a much more meaningful rally before I get too excited. Essentially, much like the JETS above, the recession worries passing and the tariff situation being resolved would be great for SBUX.
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