Issues
The market’s momentum continued last week as a benign inflation print and another round of solid earnings backed up bullish sentiment—with virtually all of the major indexes moving higher. For the week the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.2%, but the Russell 2000 slipped 1.4%.
We’re seeing lots of crosscurrents in the market right now, especially when it comes to the evidence -- the big-cap indexes are in good shape and we’ve seen a few more breakouts from growth stocks ... but the broad market is very iffy and most other indexes are stuck in the mud. We think it’s best to go with the flow--ditching stocks that break down but selectively adding stronger, fresher names, all while holding some cash for future buying power (if more breakouts come during earnings season) and for cushion (if the market weakens again). We’ve had a few changes in the past two weeks (including some in our special bulletin today), and we go over all the details in tonight’s issue.
Cannabis investors have turned into bored apes.
After President Donald Trump said on August 11 he’d get around to cannabis reform “in a few weeks,” cannabis speculators concluded making money was as simple as pulling out a calendar, counting forward three weeks, and buying ahead of the expected big pop on that date – which was in early September.
After President Donald Trump said on August 11 he’d get around to cannabis reform “in a few weeks,” cannabis speculators concluded making money was as simple as pulling out a calendar, counting forward three weeks, and buying ahead of the expected big pop on that date – which was in early September.
It goes without saying that a big part of being a turnaround investor is having a contrarian bent. Let’s face it, we’re a hardy bunch who typically shun the crowd and buy what are, in most cases, stocks that are completely out of vogue with the typical market participant.
Stocks made yet another new high this week.
The S&P 500 has returned 17% this year and is well on its way to another 20%-plus return year, making it three consecutive years of such returns for the first time in nearly 30 years. Sure, the market likes rate cuts, but artificial intelligence is the main force driving the market higher.
Technology stocks, which now comprise more than a third of the S&P index, have driven the market higher for most of this three-year-old bull market. While AI is the primary driver of the market, it isn’t about just technology stocks anymore. The AI catalyst is driving other sectors higher.
AI is transforming the utility sector. The best stocks now offer strong growth in addition to defense. After being stagnant for decades, electricity demand is exploding. AI requires enormous amounts of electricity for the data centers that house the computer components. Electric vehicle proliferation and rapidly growing onshoring of manufacturing are also juicing demand.
In this issue, I highlight one of the best utility stocks on the market. This unprecedented environment is transforming the market’s most defensive sector into one that also offers exciting growth. The combination of defense and growth is unbeatable.
The S&P 500 has returned 17% this year and is well on its way to another 20%-plus return year, making it three consecutive years of such returns for the first time in nearly 30 years. Sure, the market likes rate cuts, but artificial intelligence is the main force driving the market higher.
Technology stocks, which now comprise more than a third of the S&P index, have driven the market higher for most of this three-year-old bull market. While AI is the primary driver of the market, it isn’t about just technology stocks anymore. The AI catalyst is driving other sectors higher.
AI is transforming the utility sector. The best stocks now offer strong growth in addition to defense. After being stagnant for decades, electricity demand is exploding. AI requires enormous amounts of electricity for the data centers that house the computer components. Electric vehicle proliferation and rapidly growing onshoring of manufacturing are also juicing demand.
In this issue, I highlight one of the best utility stocks on the market. This unprecedented environment is transforming the market’s most defensive sector into one that also offers exciting growth. The combination of defense and growth is unbeatable.
Despite some mid-week wobbles for stocks, especially in the growth sector, the market once again closed the week at new highs as the S&P 500 gained 1.9%, the Dow rallied 2.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 2.3%.
While there are new headlines each week that push and pull the overall market and individual sectors, the overall picture mostly remains the same: From a top-down perspective, the buyers continue to show up where they “should” after every pullback, keeping the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes up. Individual stocks remain trickier, and with earnings coming for most, that will probably tell the tale. We have seen a couple more breakouts of late, which is encouraging, but tonight we’ll stick with our level 7 on the Market Monitor and monitor how the gaggle of earnings reports are received in the days ahead.
This week’s list has something for everyone, including recent earnings winners, setups heading into quarterly reports and pullbacks in names that are already in strong uptrends. Our Top Pick rested in the summer and fall and has re-emerged on the upside.
This week’s list has something for everyone, including recent earnings winners, setups heading into quarterly reports and pullbacks in names that are already in strong uptrends. Our Top Pick rested in the summer and fall and has re-emerged on the upside.
Strong earnings results, Fed rate cuts, and easing trade tensions with China. It’s no wonder stocks are stretching to new all-time highs! Of course, it’s been a bit topsy-turvy getting there these last few weeks. But Wall Street is ultimately a sucker for a strong economy, and that’s essentially what we have until further notice. And in strong economies, it makes sense to invest in financials. So today, we add one of the biggest-name U.S. banks – a stock that made the cut in last week’s Cabot Top Ten Trader issue.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Despite some mid-week wobbles for stocks, especially in the growth sector, the market once again closed the week at new highs as the S&P 500 gained 1.9%, the Dow rallied 2.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 2.3%.
Despite some mid-week wobbles for stocks, especially in the growth sector, the market once again closed the week at new highs as the S&P 500 gained 1.9%, the Dow rallied 2.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 2.3%.
To begin, just a heads up that there will be no Cabot Wealth Explorer issue on November 13 as I will be in transit for a mining and resource conference in Senegal.
Morgan Stanley (MS) notes that stock picking is back, with single-stock activity as opposed to funds and ETFs seeing a significant rise in recent months. This is interesting as there are now more ETFs trading on exchanges than stocks. Blending the two together is the optimal strategy for most.
Morgan Stanley (MS) notes that stock picking is back, with single-stock activity as opposed to funds and ETFs seeing a significant rise in recent months. This is interesting as there are now more ETFs trading on exchanges than stocks. Blending the two together is the optimal strategy for most.
Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea, we need to clean up a couple positions from the October expiration cycle.
Updates
With the stock market and Cabot’s office closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth federal holiday, this week’s update is coming your way a day early.
The market’s biggest concern at the moment is, of course, the conflict between Israel and Iran. I think it’s impressive how resilient the market has been given these developments in the Middle East.
The market’s biggest concern at the moment is, of course, the conflict between Israel and Iran. I think it’s impressive how resilient the market has been given these developments in the Middle East.
The market has been bouncy in recent days but is still close to the high. Prices are high, but uncertainty is growing.
Stocks sold off on Friday as Israel and Iran exchanged bombings. But the market rose on Monday as investors are expecting a quick end to the conflict. Anything can happen. The conflict adds another degree of uncertainty beyond the tariffs and the economy.
Stocks sold off on Friday as Israel and Iran exchanged bombings. But the market rose on Monday as investors are expecting a quick end to the conflict. Anything can happen. The conflict adds another degree of uncertainty beyond the tariffs and the economy.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Dollar Tree (DLTR), GE Aerospace (GE), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Intel (INTC), Paramount Global (PARA), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and UiPath (PATH).
Agnico Eagle (AEM) is poised to benefit from a major change in the balance of global reserve assets.
Agnico Eagle (AEM) is poised to benefit from a major change in the balance of global reserve assets.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index hit a multi-week high on Tuesday before giving a little back yesterday.
There’s some interesting data that suggests small-cap stocks could be in for a run starting now.
According to data from Evercore ISI, small-cap stocks have done better than large caps 60% of the time in June, dating back to 1990. The odds are even better when small caps enter June underperforming, as they have for a while now.
There’s some interesting data that suggests small-cap stocks could be in for a run starting now.
According to data from Evercore ISI, small-cap stocks have done better than large caps 60% of the time in June, dating back to 1990. The odds are even better when small caps enter June underperforming, as they have for a while now.
What a difference two months make!
On April 8, the Nasdaq had plummeted to bear market territory after touching all-time highs just six weeks earlier, and the S&P 500 was on the cusp of joining it. Small caps were faring even worse. Volatility had spiked to multi-year highs. And everyone was certain a recession or high inflation – or both – were imminent.
The reason was tariffs. “Liberation Day,” a week earlier, on which President Donald Trump had imposed sky-high tariffs on more than 100 U.S. trading partners from all over the world, had sent stocks plummeting as economists clutched their pearls and warned of imminent collapse.
On April 8, the Nasdaq had plummeted to bear market territory after touching all-time highs just six weeks earlier, and the S&P 500 was on the cusp of joining it. Small caps were faring even worse. Volatility had spiked to multi-year highs. And everyone was certain a recession or high inflation – or both – were imminent.
The reason was tariffs. “Liberation Day,” a week earlier, on which President Donald Trump had imposed sky-high tariffs on more than 100 U.S. trading partners from all over the world, had sent stocks plummeting as economists clutched their pearls and warned of imminent collapse.
Cannabis companies remain in hunker-down mode as challenges persist. Those include price compression, competition from hemp-based THC product sales, and uncertainty about potential federal reform.
Not all cannabis companies are going to survive. Ayr Wellness (AYRWF) looks like it is about to go under. I’ve only ever kept a very small position in that name, so the company’s demise did not cause too much damage.
Not all cannabis companies are going to survive. Ayr Wellness (AYRWF) looks like it is about to go under. I’ve only ever kept a very small position in that name, so the company’s demise did not cause too much damage.
After bouncing around for a few weeks, the S&P is moving higher again. The index is now just about 2% below the high and may rally this month.
The tariff story continues to play out. The market made a huge recovery after the initial fears in April as investors wrote off a disaster scenario. Now, talks are dragging on, and the market still can’t move completely past the issue. But good economic news was a pleasant surprise.
The tariff story continues to play out. The market made a huge recovery after the initial fears in April as investors wrote off a disaster scenario. Now, talks are dragging on, and the market still can’t move completely past the issue. But good economic news was a pleasant surprise.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Intel (INTC), Kenvue (KVUE), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Paramount Global (PARA), UiPath (PATH) and SLB Ltd. (SLB).
Dollar Tree (DLTR) had a big week in the wake of earnings, hitting a new high for the year to date.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) had a big week in the wake of earnings, hitting a new high for the year to date.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to lean bullish, but pick your spots. Our intermediate-term indicators remain bullish, and the market’s consolidation so far has been tight and quiet, which is a plus. Leadership remains good-not-great, with many names acting well but also plenty of wobbles and some selling on strength, too. All told, we’re content to follow the playbook we’ve been using, adding as names emerge and averaging up if they start well. Tonight, we’ll fill out our position in Snowflake (SNOW), adding another half-sized stake, but we’ll hold 31% or so in cash and see how things go from here.
The market rally has gotten stuck in the mud for now. It will likely take some good news to really get it moving higher again.
Stocks have hugely recovered from the tariff Armageddon selloffs of early April. The index made up all that tariff ground and the S&P came within just a few percent of the high. But the rally has stalled over the past couple of weeks as positive headlines have been in short supply.
Stocks have hugely recovered from the tariff Armageddon selloffs of early April. The index made up all that tariff ground and the S&P came within just a few percent of the high. But the rally has stalled over the past couple of weeks as positive headlines have been in short supply.
The market has leveled off since the huge recovery from the tariff Armageddon fears. And now, who knows.
The sticky issue to start the week is increasing trade tensions with China. A war of words is escalating between the two governments and threats are being made by both sides. It is being reported that President Trump will speak with Chinese President Xi today or later this week. Hopefully the two leaders will bring down the temperature.
The sticky issue to start the week is increasing trade tensions with China. A war of words is escalating between the two governments and threats are being made by both sides. It is being reported that President Trump will speak with Chinese President Xi today or later this week. Hopefully the two leaders will bring down the temperature.
Alerts
We’re going to show respect for the deteriorating breadth of the market by selling Willdan Group (WLDN) today at about our entry point (maybe 1% or 2% below it, depending).
WHAT TO DO NOW: We’re paring back further today, not because of any major change in the top-down evidence, but simply taking our cues from individual stocks. Today we’re going to sell our stake in Samsara (IOT), which pulled back normally after earnings last week, but the follow-on selling prompts us to cut bait. That sell will boost our cash position to the upper 30% range, which we’ll hold on to for now. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Growth stocks are finally hitting air pockets today after massive runs, and while many look fine from an intermediate-term point of view, some appear iffy after massive runs. Thus, we’re paring back today: We’re going to take more partial profits in AppLovin (after already booking some profit this morning), as well as selling one-third of Axon (AXON), which isn’t as extreme as some others but is coming under pressure. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but continue to manage your positions. In the Model Portfolio, we’re going to again take partial profits in AppLovin (APP), selling one-third of what we have left. That will boost our cash position to around 22%. Details below.
I’m recommending that we sell a quarter of our position in American Airlines (AAL).
We’re doing things a little differently this month since there’s potential for a stock-moving announcement tomorrow that could impact this month’s new addition, which is a speculative mining stock.
I’m recommending that we sell a quarter of our position in Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
WHAT TO DO NOW: Last week’s market action was disappointing, though it didn’t change any of our key indicators. Even so, we’re seeing some selling on strength appear, so we’re focused on managing our portfolio. Today we’re going to sell one-third of our solid profit in Palantir (PLTR), leaving us with 23% in cash.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.