The market is melting down with no end in sight. The question is, does this more closely resemble the July/August carry trade/weak jobs report selling of last year, when the major indexes fell an almost identical amount to what they have in the past three weeks? Or are we hurtling toward the end of the 28-month bull market? We may know the answer soon, as the all-important February inflation prints are released later this week.

In the meantime, we’re playing plenty of defense in today’s issue, selling out of six of our positions that have completely broken down, and adding shares of a low-risk gold miner that’s been a favorite of Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld for some time.

Details inside.

The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%.

The selling pressures of the past two weeks continued last week as traders grappled with tariff concerns, a possibly slowing economy, and growth stocks again falling dramatically. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 3.1%, the Dow had fallen 2.4%, and the Nasdaq had dropped another 3.5%.

After a huge run and a choppy two-month stretch, the sellers have taken control and are crushing most stocks, especially growth titles, many of which broken down and--for the big winners of last year--are flashing abnormal action. With our Cabot Tides, Two-Second Indicator and Aggression Index firmly negative, we’re mostly on the sideline and are content to wait things out until the next uptrend gets underway.

Encouragingly, though, there are still a good number of fresher growth stocks (got going in the last two or three months) that are taking the selling in stride; upside will be limited for now, of course, but tonight we have an expanded watch list of names that could be new leaders down the road. Eventually, the sun will shine again, but for now it’s best to focus mostly on capital preservation, which will allow us to make that much more money when the bulls are back.

Today’s addition is a profitable small-cap MedTech company specializing in products to treat peripheral nerve injuries.

Management has a number of growth-oriented irons in the fire. And I think the company could be an attractive acquisition target.

While the sock has been relatively stable in this increasingly volatile market, we’ll still start with a half-sized position, just in case.

U.S. markets are in a tailspin, and previously hard-charging growth stocks are leading the slide. But two asset classes that have often been overlooked in recent years are off to very good starts in 2025: value stocks and European stocks. Having just “retired” a European value stock that reached our price target in last week’s update, today we add a Dutch-based mid-cap with an almost identical profile – but at a time when undervalued European stocks are getting treated like U.S. growth stocks.

Details inside.

For the second straight week growth stocks got hit hard, which weighed on the Nasdaq. Though interestingly, as money rotated out of the 2024 leaders, it raced into slow and steady stocks that have been left behind in years past. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1%, the Dow had gained 1%, and the Nasdaq had fallen 3.5%.

Last week saw the softness in leading growth titles spread to most of the market, with most indexes now in intermediate-term downtrends and there’s no question market leadership has taken a hit. That said, the rest of the market isn’t in nearly as bad shape, and what we’re watching closest is how the current bounce phase progresses: Obviously, a strong, big-volume, multi-day bounce in the market and fresher leading names would be encouraging, but right now, we think it’s best to play defense (our Market Monitor now stands at a level 4) but to also remain flexible.

This week’s list has a lot of names that have gone through corrections in recent weeks and months—likely kicking out most weak hands and, in many cases, resetting their uptrends. Our Top Pick is trying to break free from a nine-month rest; given the market, we’d keep it small if you enter and see how the market and breakout attempt go from here.

The market is in sell-off mode, with the Nasdaq down more than 7% in less than two weeks. But while growth stocks are in the dumps, value stocks are flourishing, up 5% year to date and outperforming growth by one of the wider margins in recent memory. So today, we sell out of a couple growth stocks that aren’t working and beef up our value exposure by adding the newest recommendation from Cabot Turnaround Letter Chief Analyst Clif Droke. It’s a company whose name you likely know, but a stock that was severely out of favor with Wall Street until recently – a perfect turnaround candidate.

Details inside.

For the second straight week growth stocks got hit hard, which weighed on the Nasdaq. Though interestingly as money rotated out of the 2024 leaders, it raced into slow and steady stocks that have been left behind in years past. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1%, the Dow had gained 1%, and the Nasdaq had fallen 3.5%.

For the second straight week growth stocks got hit hard, which weighed on the Nasdaq. Though interestingly as money rotated out of the 2024 leaders, it raced into slow and steady stocks that have been left behind in years past. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1%, the Dow had gained 1%, and the Nasdaq had fallen 3.5%.

I am in Singapore this week as U.S. markets and Explorer recommendations struggle a bit.

I had a chance to visit three Luckin Coffee shops in Singapore. Hard to draw conclusions from this small sample but all three seemed very professional and fully automated with no cash accepted resulting in no lines at all. Spoke with maybe a dozen customers who like the ease of use, variety of flavors, and the price. Several said they also go to Starbucks. One only needs to download the Luckin app to get service which locks in customers to receiving a stream of deals and incentives.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic, but pick your spots. The evidence remains more good than bad, and many growth stocks are acting well—that said, the flies in the ointment we’ve repeatedly mentioned are still hanging around and, near term, many stocks are extended to the upside. We’re still leaning bullish, but tonight we’re going to stand pat, holding what we have and seeing how the market and stocks behave in the days ahead. Our cash position remains in the neighborhood of 30%.

Small caps have bounced around this week, taking a break from the rally that began on September 11 and continued through the 19^th.

Behind the scenes, analysts have been increasing their earnings expectations for the asset class. This is largely because rates are falling, but also because the economy is holding up.

Value stocks are starting to play catch-up.

The Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (VTV), a good proxy for value stocks, is up 9% since the first week of August, more than half its year-to-date gain of 16.6%. While value stocks still trail the S&P 500 (+20.9% YTD) and growth stocks (the Nasdaq is +22.4% YTD), the gap is narrowing. Now that the Fed is finally cutting interest rates from multi-decade highs, perhaps this “in name only” bull market will spread to more corners of the market beyond just the Magnificent Seven, artificial intelligence stocks, and the other mostly tech-related plays that have carried this 23-month rally.

The market is hot stuff again. The S&P made a new high this week after making up all the early September losses and then some. It is the 40^th record close for the index, which is now up 20% YTD with another quarter left.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent developments concerning Duluth Holdings (DLTH), Gannett (GCI) and Zillow (Z), with a particular emphasis on the latter due to recent interest rate-related strength.

Despite our focus on primarily mid-stage turnarounds with exceptional momentum potential in recent weeks, I’m looking for potential opportunities in early-stage candidates due to the additional improvement in the market’s intermediate-term outlook, thanks to the Fed’s latest rate cut.

Finally! The Fed met yesterday and, as expected, began a rate cutting cycle. The market, and small caps, love it.

The magnitude of the September cut, 50 bps, is a bit of a surprise. Despite what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference yesterday, this is partially a make-up cut. Since there was no meeting in August, and the Fed didn’t cut in July, it was time to make a statement.

The Federal Reserve has voted to lower interest rates by a half percentage point, the first since 2020 and more than many expected. The overwhelming Fed board vote suggests more rate reductions are likely this year. This Fed move was clearly already baked into markets but keep in mind that the Fed only controls overnight interbank interest rates. Nevertheless, this action will help support the market and boost interest rate-sensitive stocks such as real estate and utilities.

The Fed went big!

Everyone knew Jerome Powell and company were going to (finally) cut the federal funds rate for the first time in four and a half years on Wednesday. The question was by how much – 50 basis points (0.50%) or 25 basis points (0.25%)? To my mild surprise (but not to Wall Street’s – the options market had swung to a 59% probability that it would be 50 bps prior to the announcement), the Fed opted for the larger cut, slashing rates from 5.25-5.5% to a 4.75-5.25% range. So far, the market seems unsure how to take the hefty cut – all three major indexes were up more than half a percent immediately following yesterday’s 2 p.m. ET announcement, but then were narrowly in the red by day’s end.

It’s a new era, a changing of the guard. This week a Fed easing cycle starts as the Fed will begin to lower the Federal Funds rate after the steepest hiking cycle in decades. The easing cycle is expected to last for years.

The Fed’s moment has finally arrived.

The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate at the steepest pace since the 1980s in 2022 and 2023, from 0% to 5.5% over just an 18-month span. The Fed Funds rate has remained at a multi-decade high of 5.50% for more than a year. The Fed is expected to begin cutting the rate this week and will likely continue to do so for the next two years.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent news developments concerning Nokia (NOK), Vodaphone (VOD), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Fidelity National (FIS) and B2GOLD (BTG), with a particular emphasis on the latter due to recent precious metal market strength.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay flexible. From a top-down perspective, the market and growth stocks are basically in the confines of correction/consolidation, though many individual names continue to handle themselves well, with many we own surging to new highs in the past couple of days. Last week, we pruned two names, but tonight we’ll add a half-sized position in Argenx (ARGX), a name that’s been on our watch list and is set up well for higher prices if the market cooperates. Our cash position will now be around 41%.

Shares of Netflix (NFLX) are trading down this morning after the company beat Q1 expectations. Revenue grew 15.2% to $9.4 billion (beating by 1.3%, or $125.2 million) while EPS grew 83.3% to $5.28 (beating by 16.7%, or $0.76). Net streaming additions was 9.3 million, way ahead of expectations.

As the market continues to push out expectations for a rate cut (Powell’s comments yesterday make this much more likely), we’re going to lighten up a little more, starting with Liquidity Services (LQDT), which moves to sell today.

Sell Second Half Remitly (RELY)

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to play things a bit carefully as the market’s position deteriorates. Our Two-Second Indicator and Cabot Tides are weakening, and leading stocks, which had been churning for weeks, are continuing to give up ground. It’s possible this morphs into some sort of news-driven shakeout (especially given the hourly Middle East headlines), but we’re simply taking it as it comes. We already have 28% cash in the Model Portfolio, but we’re going to pare back further, cutting our loss in our half position in Celsius (CELH) and selling one-third of our position in Pulte (PHM). Our cash position will now be around 36%.

A number of stocks that were doing well have seen momentum fade and/or turn negative lately, and this morning’s slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print and rising chatter about no rate cuts in 2024 isn’t helping.

Today we are going to close our two Bear Call Spreads (QQQ and SPY) in the Quant Trader portfolio. Here are the details:

All-Weather Portfolio Alert (GLD, IEF, VTI, TLT, DBC), Buffett’s Patient Investor Portfolio Alert (AAPL, GOOGL, TXN), Cabot Options Institute Fundamentals – Yale Endowment Portfolio Alert (SPY, EEM, VNQ, TIP, EFA)

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.