After a holiday-shortened but very productive week for the market, here’s what’s happening with all our positions.

After a holiday-shortened but very productive week for the market, here’s what’s happening with all our positions.

Since the effective federal hemp-derived THC ban was approved in the latest budget deal, cannabis investors have taken the change as a sign the Trump administration is no longer serious about rescheduling.

This is probably wrong. Cannabis sector CEOs closer to the rescheduling process than most investors think the sector-changing reform is still on track.

The broad market and growth stocks started to have issues in late September and by early November everything went over the falls, cracking the intermediate-term trend of most indexes and stocks. Encouragingly, though, the market has rebounded this week as we march toward the Thanksgiving holiday--it’s good to see, but especially for growth measures, there’s still more proving to do. Of course, with a lot of cash, we’re willing to buy, and if we see strength continue into early next week (past the holiday period) we could start putting money back to work. For now, though, we think it’s best to be patient and see if the market (and, more important) growth stocks can tell us the selling storm is definitively over.

Note: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the Cabot Turnaround Letter weekly update won’t be published on Friday. Instead, the next update and the Catalyst Report will be sent out on December 5.

Given the obvious risks of the current macroeconomic environment (inflation, geopolitical volatility, etc.), it’s my contention that sector selectivity has never been more important. That is, when evaluating stocks for potential purchase, it’s imperative that we consider the potential impact the macro climate might have on said investment going forward.

I’m bullish for 2026. But I’m not confident about the next few weeks.

Last week’s much-anticipated earnings report from AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) and the overdue September jobs report were expected to provide answers to the recent angst. Both reports were great. Stocks plunged anyway. That’s a bearish sign.

The market is always unpredictable in the near term. But it seems the greater likelihood over the next several weeks is choppy at best, with a good chance of further downside. But things can change between now and the December issue, and new stocks could be highlighted in weekly updates or via trade alert.

In this issue, I highlight a covered call on a stock that has been flying high over the past month. It has enough momentum to make the call premium huge. It’s a good time to secure a high income on a stock that may have peaked in a market that looks dicey over the rest of the year.

Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea, we do need to clean up our CENX position from the November expiration cycle, as the call we sold expired worthless, leaving us with our stock, which we will sell for a net virtual breakeven. Here are the details:

The evidence has continued to worsen on balance, which has us remaining in a cautious stance. That said, we’re also flexible given some longer-term positives and a couple of near-term secondary readings that popped up last week, which have typically occurred near market low points. Given that the indexes aren’t horror shows, we’re still open to the action this month being a shorter-term shakeout —but with so many things having rolled over, the onus is on the market to prove itself on the upside. Right now, we favor staying close to shore; we’ll stick with our Market Monitor at a level 4.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with AI, fresh medical names, recent earnings winners and some turnarounds, too. Our Top Pick is a steadier name that’s strong partly due to the AI wave; the stock just gapped on earnings and delivered a solid outlook that should keep buyers interested. Aim to enter on weakness.

Happy Thanksgiving week, everyone! The market’s much-needed strong start to this holiday-shortened week is certainly something to be thankful for in the midst of what has mostly been a rough November, particularly for growth investors. Maybe today’s run-up will spark a turnaround. In case there are more wild gyrations ahead, however, today we add a low-beta, way-undervalued utility stock that I recommended to my Cabot Value Investor audience earlier this month. We could use a couple more defensive positions as the market has become more risk-off, and this stock certainly qualifies.

Details inside.

It was another rocky week for the market as the tone was set by a rotation out of richly valued tech names, worries over whether the Federal Reserve would stay on hold rather than cut interest rates, and the big story was ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. By week’s end the S&P 500 and Dow had lost 2%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2%.

It was another rocky week for the market as the tone was set by a rotation out of richly valued tech names, worries over whether the Federal Reserve would stay on hold rather than cut interest rates, and the big story was ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. By week’s end the S&P 500 and Dow had lost 2%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2%.

*Note: Your next issue of Cabot Explorer will arrive next Wednesday, November 26 due to the market holiday next Thursday, November 27 in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Nvidia (NVDA) sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced Blackwell AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and beating consensus estimates. This should keep AI momentum moving forward.

By coincidence, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) high level visit to Washington this week led to the Commerce Department approving sales of substantial advanced chips to Saudia Arabia as well as a slew of related deals. My question is whether these deals are investing in Saudi’s economic transformation rather than in American jobs, technology, and growth.

A couple of weeks ago we discussed the likelihood that the “all things AI” momentum trade would sooner or later lose luster. I called into question the tenacity of some of 2025’s top-performing tech stocks while also speculating that some of this year’s wayside laggards would launch a return to prominence in the coming months.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market tried to rebound today after Nvidia’s earnings last night—but big investors stepped up to sell, driving the market and many growth stocks into the red. Our Cabot Tides have now joined the Two-Second Indicator in negative territory, which has us remaining cautious and holding plenty of cash. In the Model Portfolio, we’re going to book partial profits in the ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO), selling one-third of our stake and holding the rest. That will leave us with a cash position of 62%. Details below.

A quick housekeeping note: with our offices closed next Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving, we won’t be publishing the regular Weekly Update next week. I will, of course, send out Special Bulletins if/as needed. I hope you have a happy and healthy Thanksgiving!

On to the market.

Nvidia’s (NVDA) upbeat revenue forecast due to ongoing AI demand should help to tamp down bubble concerns today and possibly stanch the selling that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq below their 50-day moving average lines earlier this week and inflicted the same damage on the S&P 600 SmallCap Index last Thursday.

It was a rough week for investors of all stripes, as the S&P 500 is down 3.5% since we last wrote, while the Nasdaq tumbled more than 4%. Even the usually steadier Dow Jones Industrial pulled back nearly 5%, while value stocks pulled back nearly 2%. All month, growth stocks have been getting battered, with many high flyers getting sold off even after convincing earnings beats. Now, the selling has spread to other corners of the market.

But not all sectors are suffering.

The market rally is sputtering. The near-term direction of stocks is highly uncertain. But we might have a much better idea of where things are going by the end of this week.

This will be an important week for a market that’s been floundering.

The S&P 500 is still in an uptrend that began in April. The index is up 14.5% year to date and within 3% of the high. But stocks are down 2% so far in November as investors fret about technology.

A growing chorus of concern regarding artificial intelligence valuations is dragging on the market. Several analysts believe AI stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. Technology has pulled this market higher all year and for most of the bull market. A pullback in those stocks will likely drag the index lower.

In her latest State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen provided the parliament and citizens of Europe with a stark reminder of a problem that continues to plague governments, corporations and individuals around the world.

In her speech, she specifically referenced “the higher cost of living” for millions of Europeans as “THE global crisis” (emphasis mine). Not climate or geopolitical instability or cybersecurity threats, but inflation.

Small caps continue to underperform large caps in 2025.

The S&P 600 is up a mere 3.6% year to date, trailing the S&P 500’s 16.7% gain by roughly 13 percentage points.

The gap closes meaningfully if we strip out megacaps’ strong performance and compare the S&P 600 with the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which is up “just” 10.3%.

The end of the government shutdown is buoying markets while indications that some of the AI-related stocks are retrenching is a headwind for the overall market.

The AI story is clearly impacting the cutting of management jobs with the worst numbers in one month in more than two decades, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The last time companies made more layoffs during that month was in 2003, when cell phones started to take off. American investors funded $104 billion of AI startups in the first half of 2025 alone.

Growth stocks, led by the Magnificent Seven, have again carried the market this year.

The Mag. 7 – the clever name for big-tech behemoths Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) – are up an average of 22% this year. Because those seven companies account for more than a third of the entire S&P 500, they’ve carried the index to a solid 16.5% gain year to date. The Equal Weight S&P 500 index, which equally weighs each of the 500 stocks that comprise the benchmark index, is up a mere 8.5% and has barely budged since the Fourth of July. For most stocks, the entirety of this year’s rally occurred during the post-Liberation Day run-up from the second half of April through early July.

It’s cannabis earnings season once again. Like most retailers, cannabis companies report late in the earnings season. I’ll get into company details below. But first, here are the key sector takeaways from third-quarter results.

Stocks started off this week much higher as the end of the government shutdown seems likely. The newfound strength comes off a sluggish month for stocks and could signal a new surge higher.

The shutdown has lasted over 40 days, and investors began to worry that it was negatively affecting consumer confidence and could lower GDP going forward. Ending the shutdown does take some risk off the table. At the same time, some bullish forecasts have come out for 2026, citing rising overall earnings and continuing AI dominance.

Sell Life360 (LIF)

Natural Grocers (NGVC) delivered a Q4 FY25 report and guidance for next year that “should” be good enough to stabilize the stock and get it moving higher again. That said, we have a half-sized position, and if shares don’t stabilize here (KR and SFM have recently done so), then we’re more likely to exit the position than fill the other half. Next week will be important for NGVC.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Despite the indexes holding up today, lots of growth stocks are again coming under pressure, continuing a wave of late-week distribution. We’re already holding a lot of cash, but today we’re selling one more position—Vertiv (VRT), which had been trying to hold up but the late-week selling pressure has been too much, cracking the stock. We’ll sell our half-sized position and hold the cash, leaving us with around two-thirds on the sideline in the Model Portfolio.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

Sell Warrior Met Coal (HCC). Buy Second Half of Life360 (LIF)

Lighten up a Little

I plan on locking in returns on several of our current positions and immediately selling more premium. In addition, I plan to add at least one more stock to the portfolio, which will bring our total to seven stocks. I also intend on continuing to ladder our positions in perpetuity, so we are collecting premium on a weekly basis. As it stands, we have positions due to expire over the next four consecutive weeks.



Other than that, there really isn’t much to say at the moment. We continue to be pleased with the overall mechanics of our approach and more importantly the overall return, which currently stands at 145.7%.

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