In terms of the market, with the Federal Reserve signaling that the interest rate hiking cycle is over and that there may even be rate cuts in 2024 the bulls cheered this news as the S&P 500 gained 2.5% last week, the Dow rallied 2.9%, and the Nasdaq added 2.85%.

The market has had seven consecutive higher weeks. And the positive momentum should continue into the new year.

The S&P 500 is up 12.5% in the last seven weeks and 23% for 2023. But those returns are deceiving. Until the market rally broadened out recently, only seven large technology company stocks accounted for nearly all the gains.

Many stocks are still in a bear market. In fact, certain more interest rate-sensitive stocks recently fell to the lowest level since the trough of the pandemic market more than three years ago, although they have rebounded with falling interest rates recently.

Buying stocks in the throes of a bear market has proven to be a winning strategy over time. Buying stocks after they have already started to climb out of the lows has proven to be a winning strategy sooner.

The timing may be perfect for a rare opportunity to generate much higher returns than can normally be expected from stocks of defensive companies. In this issue, I highlight a defensive stock that had been a stellar performer before inflation and rising interest rates took hold. It is priced near the lowest valuations in its history and has recently been generating upward momentum.

Note: We will have a Movers & Shakers update later this week, but just a heads up, there will be no Top Ten issue next week (December 26), as it’s the second of our two weeks off all year. For those that celebrate, we hope you have a very, very Merry Christmas!

On to the market, things can always change, but after two years of rate hikes and hawkishness, it looks like the Fed is finally “officially” off the market’s back. Interest rates have been the tail that’s wagged the market for two years, so that’s obviously good, and it’s no surprise that stocks (especially the broad market) catapulted on that news. With all of that said, it’s important to keep your feet on the ground; we’re not expecting a major dip, but it’s certainly possible stocks could wobble a bit or we could see some rotation now that the good news is out. Even so, the rubber-meets-the-road evidence is strongly positive; we’re moving up our Market Monitor to a level 8.

This week’s list is a balanced one, with some growth, some cheap names coming back from the depths, some cyclicals and more. Our Top Pick is a Bull Market stock that should do very well if this advance continues. Try to buy on dips.

In our final issue of 2023, we try and capitalize on the red-hot, Fed-fueled (for once) market by adding a growth play that is resurgent in a post-Covid world. It’s a brand-new recommendation from Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader. It should be a nice addition to a Stock of the Week portfolio that has plenty of shiny objects as we close out the year. Enjoy – and happy holidays!

We currently have one open position, a SPY bear call spread due to expire in the January 19, 2024, expiration cycle. My hope is to add one, if not two more trades for the January 31, 2024, expiration cycle. The challenge is finding a highly liquid ETF or stock with a decent IV rank, and therefore, at least in most cases, some decent options premium. If premium just isn’t there, we might have to extend the duration on the trade, possibly going out to the February 16, 2024, expiration cycle. Either way, I intend on adding an iron condor, and hopefully a bull put spread to the mix. Of course, a slight pullback would make things easier.

We allowed our PFE calls to expire worthless at expiration last Friday, locked in some decent premium and plan to sell more call premium early this week. Expect to see a trade alert either today or tomorrow.

We also allowed our DKNG puts to carry through expiration and as a result, per our income wheel approach, we were assigned shares of DKNG. Now that we are in the covered call phase of the income wheel approach in DKNG, like PFE, we plan to sell calls against our newly acquired shares today or tomorrow.

Additionally, I intend on introducing a new position in WFC, or another fairly low-priced big bank stock, by selling puts early this week. My hope is we get a short-term pullback before entering a new position.

We have officially entered the earnings doldrums, but that certainly doesn’t mean that opportunities won’t present themselves. For instance, this week Micron (MU), FedEx (FDX) and Nike (NKE) announce earnings and offer a decent opportunity for an iron condor. I’ve gone over a detailed iron condor example in the “Weekly Trade Ideas” section below.

We’ve made 39 trades in total with a win ratio of 76.9% (30 out of 39 winning trades).

With the Federal Reserve signaling that the interest rate hiking cycle is over, and there may even be rate cuts in 2024 the bulls cheered this news as the S&P 500 gained 2.5%, the Dow rallied 2.9%, and the Nasdaq added 2.85%.

With the Federal Reserve signaling that the interest rate hiking cycle is over, and there may even be rate cuts in 2024 the bulls cheered this news as the S&P 500 gained 2.5%, the Dow rallied 2.9%, and the Nasdaq added 2.85%.

The Fed’s actions (holding rates steady) and words (seeing three rate cuts next year) has supercharged the broad market this week, keeping our market timing indicators positive while most leaders are in fine shape. We will say that, with the good news out, sentiment has picked up, so we’re still content to move gradually and pick our spots with new buying. Tonight, we’re filling out our position in one name while starting a half-sized stake in a new leader, leaving us with around one-quarter in cash.

Well, I’d call November a pretty good month! The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by around 2,000 points since our last issue. Wall Street seems positively optimistic that the Fed will begin to lower interest rates mid-year, according to a recent CNBC survey. Also, the risk of a recession continues to decline, with Goldman Sachs saying the probability is now around 15%.

Both of those instances may create a very good market in 2024.

Despite the index returns this year, many stocks are still in a bear market.

Some interest rate-sensitive stocks recently fell to the lowest level since the trough of the pandemic market more than three years ago. But interest rates have likely peaked. And the main reason for the decline is over.

Buying stocks in the throes of a bear market has proven to be a winning strategy over time. Buying stocks after they have already started to climb out of the lows has proven to be a winning strategy sooner.

The timing may be perfect for a rare opportunity to generate much higher returns than can normally be expected from stocks of defensive companies. In this issue, I highlight a defensive stock that had been a stellar performer before inflation and rising interest rates took hold. It is priced near the lowest valuations in its history and has recently been generating upward momentum.

This is the week the market began to think bad economic news might just be bad for stocks, even if it’s “good” in the eyes of the Fed.

Good economic news continues to be interpreted as bad for stocks because it suggests the Fed has “more work to do.”

Stay cautious and alert. Growth stocks and the market took a hit earlier this week, though so far most potential leaders have held support and bounced back somewhat. Overall, not much has changed—our Cabot Tides are positive, and more names are acting properly, but the rest of our indicators are negative, and few stocks are moving higher with any consistency.

Centrus Energy (LEU) shares retraced from 38 to 34 as three hedge funds were long Centrus in the third quarter, while six hedge funds were long the stock in the previous quarter. Their total stake values were $14.9 million and $14.7 million, respectively. This is still a buy for aggressive investors.

The market has started to stink up the place again because of better-than-expected economic news. I kid you not.

Strong jobs growth and continuing strength in pockets of the economy are spoiling recent investor optimism. Economic strength is not what the Fed wants to see in its battle against inflation. Strength in the economy indicates that perhaps the Fed will have to remain aggressive for longer to slow down the economy and snuff out inflation.

It’s been a rough week so far as investors are severely disappointed over the good economic news.

Strong jobs growth and continuing strength in pockets of the economy is spoiling recent investor optimism. Economic strength is not what the Fed wants to see in its battle against inflation. Strength in the economy indicates that perhaps the Fed will have to remain aggressive for longer to slow down the economy and snuff out inflation.

The big news last week was the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in almost eight months.

When the S&P 500 trades below its 200-day moving average for over six months and then breaks through that threshold, the S&P 500 is up 18.8% on average over the next 12 months.

This note includes the Catalyst Report, a summary of the December edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday, and earnings from Duluth Holdings (DLTH).

The recent market rally has leveled off and is wavering. The next few days may determine whether the market rally continues, or the indexes retreat once again.

The latest upturn has been stoked by optimism over retreating inflation and a softer, gentler Fed. The Central Bank is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate at a slower 0.50% pace, versus the last four hikes of 0.75%, at the December meeting in two weeks. But Chairman Powell is giving a speech today. Any indication of a higher-than-expected hike will undo the major reason for the recent rally.

Another event with consequences is the earnings report for recommended name Big Lots (BIG), scheduled for pre-market release on December 1.

The rally sputtered. But it hasn’t reversed. That’s because there are reasons for both optimism and caution.

There is a growing perception that the problems responsible for this bear market have peaked. Inflation has been receding and the Fed might be less aggressive going forward. The market tends to anticipate six to nine months into the future, and it sees lower inflation and the Fed done hiking rates.

The market performed well during the holiday-shortened week.

The S&P 500 is brushing up against its 200-day moving average, and if I had to guess, I would expect it to reverse from here.

While I’m not a technical analyst I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some weakness, similar to what happened in August after the index brushed the 200-day moving average.

Yesterday I suggested adding $40,000 of our cash to AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) with a buy limit of 11.45.

I will be exiting the Home Depot (HD) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our upcoming subscriber-exclusive webinar, at noon ET this Friday.

Like WMT, as discussed in our weekly issue last week, and on our weekly call, I will be taking a position in Home Depot (HD) today. HD is due to announce earnings before the opening bell Tuesday (August 16). The stock is currently trading for 313.02.

As discussed in our weekly issue last week, and on our weekly call, I will be taking a position in Walmart (WMT) today. WMT is due to announce earnings before the opening bell Tuesday (August 16). The stock is currently trading for 133.27.

Okay, it’s finally time to dip our toes into a few new positions for our active portfolios. I want to start by initiating one trade in each of our active portfolios today and plan to ramp both Patient Investor and Growth/Value portfolios up over the next few expiration cycles.

CS Disco (LAW) is getting hammered today after the company lowered full-year guidance. The main issue is that the company’s Review solution isn’t selling as well as expected. The idea here is that revenue per customer jumps when they add more modules to the eDiscovery solution. This is a standard software business model.

With the overall market in an extreme, short-term overbought state after rallying almost 12% in just 27 days, I’ve decided to place a bear call spread in DIA. We already have a bear call in SPY and I want to add another in DIA today for the September expiration cycle. I also want to place an iron condor today and my hope is to add a bull put spread or two over the next few days to fully balance out our deltas.

We need to roll our August positions as there is little to no value left (good thing) and sell more premium. So far, our most conservative portfolio is up over 10% since we started to initiate positions back in early June. Even with the wild whipsaws since that time, the portfolio has managed to endure with flying colors, maintaining a nice, smooth equity curve.

Our passive portfolios continue to shine! Our Yale Endowment Portfolio is up over 20% and our most conservative portfolio, the All-Weather Portfolio is up close to 10%. Not bad for just over two months. I’ve found over the years that the most conservative approach is often the best. Less volatility, smooth equity curve, rarely any sleepless nights and over the long term, the results are historically better than more aggressive approaches.

Well, I think it’s about time to rip the Band-Aid off and close our August 19, 2022 SPY iron condor. As we talked about last week, the move in SPY has been a historic one since we added our position back on July 14. At the time SPY was trading for 375.87. Now, only 27 days later, the world’s largest stock index trades 11.7% higher at 420. Not too shabby for the bulls.

I will be exiting the Disney (DIS) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our upcoming subscriber-exclusive webinar, at noon ET this Friday.

Our WFC 39 puts for the August 19, 2022, expiration cycle are essentially worthless. Same goes for our KO 57.5 puts. As a result, I want to buy back both our WFC and KO puts, lock in a decent profit and immediately sell more premium in both.

The good news today is that the bottom seems to have passed, for both the broad market and stocks in the cannabis sector. The S&P 500 was down 25% at the bottom, while the cannabis index was down 84% at the bottom—and for both, that seems enough.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.