Weekly Commentary
The S&P 500 is right where it was roughly two weeks ago.
The lack of movement has been wonderful for our most recent SPY iron condor, our only open position at the moment. With 53 days left until the October 20 expiration cycle ends, my goal this week is to open two new positions, preferably a bull call spread and bull put spread. We’ve mostly been sitting on the sidelines while implied volatility, as seen through the VIX, traded well below 15. But after the fairly short reprieve, August has thankfully brought new life back into volatility. Of course, we would prefer to see the volatility index kick up to at least 17, if not higher, and plant itself there for a while.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.
Current Portfolio
Open Trades | |||||||
Open Date | Ticker | Strategy | Trade | Open Price | Current Price | Current Probability | Delta |
8/17/2023 | SPY | Iron Condor | October 20, 2023 475/470 - 390/385 | $0.70 | $0.52 | 92.39% - 91.86% | -0.02 |
Open Date | Closed Date | Ticker | Strategy | Trade | Open Price | Closing Price | Return |
6/2/2022 | 6/13/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | July 15, 2022 440/445 | $0.70 | $0.05 | 14.94% |
6/8/2022 | 6/17/2022 | XOP | Bear Call Spread | July 15, 2022 190/195 | $0.70 | $0.04 | 15.21% |
6/22/2022 | 7/13/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | July 29, 2022 405/410 | $0.75 | $0.35 | 8.70% |
6/30/2022 | 7/25/2022 | IWM | Iron Condor | August 19, 2022 195/200 - 145/140 | $0.70 | $0.34 | 7.76% |
7/8/2022 | 7/28/2022 | GLD | Bull Put Spread | August 19, 2022 155/150 | $0.60 | $0.16 | 9.65% |
7/14/2022 | 8/11/2022 | SPY | Iron Condor | August 19, 2022 417/412 - 335/330 | $0.70 | $4.10 | -68.00% |
8/1/2022 | 8/29/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | September 16, 2022 439/444 | $0.70 | $0.07 | 14.42% |
8/11/2022 | 8/29/2022 | DIA | Bear Call Spread | September 23, 2022 350/325 | $0.75 | $0.08 | 15.47% |
8/11/2022 | 9/8/2022 | IWM | Iron Condor | September 23, 2022 220/215 - 173/168 | $0.77 | $0.57 | 4.17% |
9/7/2022 | 9/9/2022 | QQQ | Bull Put Spread | October 21, 2022 260/255 | $0.62 | $0.30 | 6.84% |
9/9/2022 | 9/15/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | October 21, 2022 430/435 | $0.75 | $0.25 | 11.11% |
9/13/2022 | 10/17/2022 | IWM | Iron Condor | October 21, 2022 208/203 - 163/158 | $0.77 | $0.30 | 10.40% |
10/3/2022 | 10/25/2022 | SPY | Bull Put Spread | November 18, 2022 325/320 | $0.54 | $0.09 | 9.89% |
10/4/2022 | 11/2/2022 | IWM | Iron Condor | November 18, 2022 198/203 - 143/138 | $0.64 | $0.32 | 6.84% |
10/6/2022 | 11/2/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | November 18, 2022 412/416 | $0.43 | $0.28 | 3.90% |
11/16/2022 | 11/28/2022 | IWM | Iron Condor | December 16, 2022 205/200 - 162/157 | $0.75 | $0.24 | 11.36% |
11/10/2022 | 12/6/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | December 16, 2022 420/425 | $0.65 | $0.14 | 11.36% |
12/1/2022 | 12/6/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | January 20, 2023 435/440 | $0.67 | $0.18 | 10.86% |
12/13/2022 | 12/15/2022 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | January 20, 2023 430/435 | $0.54 | $0.17 | 7.99% |
12/7/2023 | 1/6/2023 | IWM | Iron Condor | January 20, 2023 202/198 - 160/156 | $0.70 | $0.06 | 19.00% |
1/4/2023 | 2/1/2023 | IWM | Iron Condor | February 17, 2023 200/195 - 154/149 | $0.65 | $2.00 | -27.00% |
1/6/2023 | 2/2/2023 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | February 17, 2023 415/420 | $0.60 | $2.50 | -38.00% |
2/2/2023 | 2/15/2023 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | March 17, 2023 440/445 | $0.63 | $0.15 | 10.62% |
2/10/2023 | 2/22/2023 | DIA | Bear Call Spread | March 31, 2023 355/360 | $0.70 | $0.17 | 11.86% |
2/2/2023 | 3/1/2023 | IWM | Iron Condor | March 17, 2023 175/180 - 215/220 | $0.72 | $0.51 | 4.38% |
3/6/2023 | 3/13/2023 | DIA | Bear Call Spread | April 21, 2023 350/355 | $0.85 | $0.17 | 15.74% |
2/23/2023 | 3/28/2023 | SPY | Iron Condor | April 21, 2023 435/430 - 350/345 | $0.80 | $0.15 | 14.94% |
3/23/2023 | 4/11/2023 | DIA | Bear Call Spread | April 21, 2023 338/443 | $0.62 | $2.05 | -28.60% |
3/23/2023 | 4/19/2023 | IWM | Iron Condor | May 19, 2023 196/191 - 147/142 | $0.83 | $0.23 | 13.64% |
4/12/2023 | 4/21/2023 | DIA | Bear Call Spread | May 19, 2023 350/355 | $0.82 | $0.44 | 8.23% |
4/21/2023 | 5/2/2023 | SPY | Iron Condor | June 16, 2023 440/435 - 365/360 | $0.95 | $0.63 | 6.84% |
4/24/2023 | 5/10/2023 | DIA | Bear Call Spread | June 16, 2023 354/359 | $0.72 | $0.22 | 11.11% |
5/5/2023 | 5/24/023 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | June 16, 2023 430/435 | $0.72 | $0.35 | 7.99% |
6/15/2023 | 6/22/2023 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | August 18, 2023 465/470 | $0.70 | $0.24 | 10.13% |
5/26/2023 | 6/23/2023 | IWM | Iron Condor | July 21, 2023 191/196 - 156/151 | $0.79 | $0.50 | 6.15% |
5/31/2023 | 7/12/2023 | QQQ | Bear Call Spread | July 21, 2023 375/380 | $0.60 | $1.80 | -31.60% |
6/30/2023 | 8/7/2023 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | August 18, 2023 462/466 | $0.52 | $0.23 | 7.82% |
8/4/2023 | 8/11/2023 | SPY | Bear Call Spread | September 15, 2023 470/475 | $0.65 | $0.20 | 9.90% |
146.02% |
Volatility Talk
The rollercoaster ride continues! After hitting 18 a week earlier the VIX, once again, pulled back to the 15 handle, which seems to be a plausible area of support at the moment. Seasonally speaking the S&P 500 is entering its weakest time of the year and if the historical precedent come to fruition this year, that would mean a move higher for the volatility index…a move we would welcome with open arms in Quant Trader.
Weekly High-Probability Mean Reversion Indicator
Below is my watch list of ETFs and stocks with the most liquid options headed into the week of August 28, 2023.
Here are the various levels I use to determine if an ETF is in an oversold or overbought state.
Very Overbought | greater than or equal to 80.1 |
Overbought | 60.1 to 80.0 |
Neutral | 40.1 to 60 |
Oversold | 20.1 to 40.0 |
Very Oversold | less than or equal to 20.0 |
Each week I also include the current implied volatility (IV) and IV Rank. I look for an IV rank above 40, preferably higher.
ETF Watch List – Trade Ideas
Exchange Traded Fund | Ticker Symbol | IV | IV Rank | HPMR Oversold - Overbought |
ARK Innovation ETF | ARKK | 39.1 | -1.2 | 38.1 |
ProShares Bitcoin ETF | BITO | 45.7 | 7.5 | 24.1 |
SPDR Dow Jones | DIA | 13.9 | 7.4 | 38.1 |
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | EEM | 18.4 | 17.4 | 42.8 |
iShares MSCI EAFE | EFA | 17.1 | 18.6 | 40.7 |
iShares MSCI Mexico ETF | EWW | 22.1 | 20 | 55.5 |
iShares MSCI Brazil | EWZ | 28.0 | 1.9 | 50.1 |
iShares China Large-Cap | FXI | 31.9 | 13 | 41.1 |
VanEck Gold Miners | GDX | 28.9 | 1.5 | 46.1 |
SPDR Gold | GLD | 12.0 | 3.9 | 54.3 |
iShares High-Yield | HYG | 8.2 | 11.7 | 54.2 |
iShares Russell 2000 | IWM | 20.1 | 1.5 | 33.9 |
SPDR Regional Bank | KRE | 33.7 | 10.1 | 27.3 |
VanEck Oil Services | OIH | 30.5 | -2.2 | 36 |
Invesco Nasdaq 100 | QQQ | 21.0 | 7.9 | 46.5 |
iShares Silver Trust | SLV | 24.4 | 5.8 | 72.7 |
VanEck Semiconductor | SMH | 29.7 | 4.2 | 46.6 |
SPDR S&P 500 | SPY | 15.7 | 8.8 | 45.6 |
iShares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | 17.4 | 15.8 | 52.2 |
United States Oil Fund | USO | 28.2 | 9.9 | 51.9 |
ProShares Ultra VIX Short | UVXY | 96.5 | 13.4 | 43 |
CBOE Market Volatility Index | VIX | 84.7 | 25.1 | 43.5 |
Barclays S&P 500 VIX ETN | VXX | 65.8 | 15.5 | 43.5 |
SPDR Biotech | XLB | 17.0 | 14.8 | 29.8 |
SPDR Energy Select | XLE | 23.4 | 5.3 | 50.3 |
SPDR Financials | XLF | 17.7 | 8.8 | 40.8 |
SPDR Utilities | XLU | 16.8 | 6.9 | 47 |
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explorer | XOP | 29.1 | 3.9 | 52.8 |
SPDR Retail | XRT | 24.3 | 15 | 25.9 |
Stock Watch List – Trade Ideas
Ticker Symbol | IV | IV Rank | HPMR Oversold - Overbought | |
Apple | AAPL | 22.9 | 9.7 | 49 |
Bank of America | BAC | 27.1 | 9.4 | 22.4 |
Bristol-Myers Squibb | BMY | 18.5 | 15.1 | 58 |
Citigroup | C | 27.8 | 10.3 | 15.9 |
Caterpillar | CAT | 22.3 | 4.2 | 45.8 |
Comcast | CMCSA | 19.9 | 22.1 | 46.3 |
Costco | COST | 16.8 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
Cisco Systems | CSCO | 22.0 | 1.5 | 68.1 |
Chevron | CVX | 27.3 | 5.5 | 46.1 |
Disney | DIS | 20.3 | 12.5 | 31.3 |
Duke Energy | DUK | 33.6 | 26.4 | 45.9 |
FedEx | FDX | 26.4 | 15.2 | 31.4 |
Gilead Sciences | GILD | 36.4 | 19.8 | 44.5 |
General Motors | GM | 35.0 | 10.7 | 32 |
Intel | INTC | 17.4 | 23.2 | 45.7 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 21.8 | 14 | 36 |
JPMorgan | JPM | 14.4 | 13.7 | 27.7 |
Coca-Cola | KO | 17.0 | 10 | 43.9 |
Altria Group | MO | 20.0 | 4.2 | 59 |
Merck | MRK | 24.0 | 6.9 | 59 |
Morgan Stanley | MS | 24.9 | 17.4 | 16.2 |
Microsoft | MSFT | 46.1 | 6.3 | 49.1 |
NextEra Energy | NEE | 21.9 | 5.1 | 46.2 |
Nvidia | NVDA | 22.5 | 14.3 | 56 |
Pfizer | PFE | 33.0 | -1 | 52 |
PayPal | PYPL | 21.8 | 4.4 | 45.3 |
Starbucks | SBUX | 22.4 | 19.7 | 29.2 |
AT&T | T | 20.6 | 18.9 | 43.6 |
Verizon | VZ | 29.5 | 17.3 | 55.2 |
Walgreens Boots Alliance | WBA | 27.5 | 7.8 | 8.4 |
Wells Fargo | WFC | 16.1 | 10.3 | 16.6 |
Walmart | WMT | 24.1 | -0.9 | 46.5 |
Exxon Mobil | XOM | 23.3 | 2.6 | 51.6 |
Weekly Trade Discussion: Open Positions
*Portfolio updated every Monday
Iron Condor: SPY October 20, 2023, 385/390 – 470/475 calls
Original trade published on 8-17-2023 (click to see original alert)
Background: At the time of the trade, SPY was trading for 440. We sold the October 20, 2023, SPY 385/390 – 470/475 iron condor for $0.70. The expected range or move was 418 to 462.
Current Thoughts: Eleven days into our SPY iron condor and the trade couldn’t be performing any better. At the time of the trade SPY was trading for 440 on the nose and now, well, it sits at 439.97. It’s just what an iron condor trade likes to see – little to no movement with a simultaneous drop in implied volatility. Our probabilities sit at 92.35% on the call side and 91.87% on the put side. We could buy back the iron condor for a small $0.20, or 4.2% return, but I’m seeking gains of at least double that, if not more. Our max profit on the trade is 16.3%.
Call Side:
Put Side:
As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.
The next Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader issue will be
published on September 5, 2023.