We’re not buying or selling any positions with this update. We are, however, going to recommend converting REE warrants to shares under a company tender. More below.
Greentech is under pressure, but the uptrend remains intact. The sector is sitting on top of significant support, so coming sessions will tell more about whether the recent pullback is just normal action off a nice rally, or a sign the longer bear market for growth stocks has resumed. The entire market is testing support at the 50-day line, which is an area institutions like to buy at, so if buyers are to return to sustain the nascent bull move, we should see that soon. We’re not as doom-and-gloom as the broader financial press, which seems resigned to a brutal September. That said, the monthly chart suggests we are at an inflection point where a move further downward is more likely to occur – it’s not a moment to be an aggressive buyer.
Clean Earth Acquisitions Corp. Shares, Warrants and Rights (CLIN, CLINW, CLINR)
No news for the SPAC on the hunt for a Greentech merger. HOLD
Clearway Energy (CWEN/A)
Hold through today and we’ll collect another dividend from Clearway Energy, this one 36.04 cents a share. Shares have backed down toward support around 34, presenting a good entry point. BUY
Energy Recovery (ERII)
We set ERII as a ‘buy at 25 or higher’ with our August 15 issue. That price would be confirmation shares are breaking out of a long consolidation, and probably won’t happen without a perking up of the Greentech sector. BUY at 25 or higher
Enovix (ENVX)
Shares of the battery maker look good, with positive buying patterns suggesting shares are consolidating recent gains over 20. We’re up about 14% and continue to see a technically clear path higher for ENVX. BUY
Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Enphase is buying a German Internet of Things company, GreenCom, for an undisclosed sum. It will help the company’s efforts to provide whole-home energy management systems. Shares are consolidating and look strong still, though the charts suggest it may tread water for a bit here. BUY
Good for Growth Shares, Warrants, Rights (GFGD, GFGDW, GFGDR)
No news from our ESG-focused SPAC, which is normal for blank-check businesses seeking a merger. HOLD
Li Auto (LI)
LI continues to test its 200-day line. There is support down into the mid-26 area that we want to see held. HOLD
Montauk Renewables (MNTK)
MNTK has eased back after having a good run through most of August. It has all the appearances of a normal rest during a bull move. A dip into the 16 area to initial support may be coming. BUY
Onsemi (ON)
Chip stocks generally are under pressure with renewed inflation concerns, pulling ON along with them. There are levels of support down to 60, but 64 should bring in buyers as the top end of the former broadening pattern which now should be support. BUY
Ormat Technologies (ORA)
ORA is taking a break in recent weeks after a strong move higher. Shares are on initial support today. They appear they may ease a little lower yet. BUY
Sunrun (RUN)
In current market conditions, we’re not going to move SunRun off our watch list. Barring a large move today, RUN has formed a doji on the monthly chart, which is a candlestick charting formation that signifies uncertainty, which could mean a reversal is ahead, or simply a pause before a move higher. WATCH
Vertex Energy (VTNR)
VTNR is trying to hold onto its 200-day average after a bit of a bounce from its earnings-related crash earlier this month. Most likely we need a firmer earnings report next quarter to revive shares. HOLD
Excelsior Portfolio
ADS-Tec Energy (ADSEW)
ADS-Tec continues to execute as well or better than pitched to investors during its SPAC merger phase – a rarity. Most recently, on Thursday, the company said order volume is way up for 2022, at about $175 million now from a projection of $60 million made in April. A nearly 200% revenue guidance increase should wow the market, but it hasn’t caught on yet. Our warrants are largely unchanged, entering today at 1.20. HOLD
Altus Power (AMPS/WS)
Last week we said take profits on the Altus Power warrants. Warrants had risen above their conversion value and with the market turning mixed and Altus nearly certain to trigger the conversion of warrants to shares around September 20, the first day it could, we decided to book profits. The Excelsior portfolio sold the position at 3.07 last Wednesday, the midpoint of trading that day, a 190% profit. Warrants have eased back to about 2.85, much closer, if still higher, to their current conversion value, and still well over our buy price of 1.05. SOLD
Constellation Energy (CEG)
CEG continues to consolidate around 80 before a likely move higher. HOLD
ESS Technology (GWH.WS)
Our thesis here is the same as with Altus – warrants are a bargain if you believe shares will improve in the coming weeks, months or next four years. Warrants are weaker with the market, at 56 cents, from 75 cents last week. BUY
FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
FCEL is on top of support from its 40-day moving average, which sits at 4.05 today. Resistance is 5.10. Fuel cell stocks are more volatile than Greentech overall. HOLD
Origin Materials (ORGNW)
Warrants are trading at decent volume but remain at 1.27, basically the same as the previous two Wednesdays. HOLD
Ree Automotive (REEAW)
Ree offered to convert every five warrants to one share in a tender issued Thursday and ending September 22. We recommend doing so. Corporate actions would need to go through your broker. Some will do it for free, others will charge a fee. Shares are trading today at 1.13, warrants at 0.22, largely reflecting that conversion. The company warns it will seek to forcibly convert remaining warrants to shares after the tender ends at a ratio of one warrant equaling 0.18 shares, which in execution means one would need 6 warrants or more to get a full share. Ree may not have the votes of a majority of warrant holders it needs to force conversion (it says it has 20% so far). Nevertheless, our warrants will only improve if shares improve, so to our reckoning the conversion at five-for-one is just as likely to pay off as warrants now, with less warrant risk. When we bought Ree as a basket of five Greentech SPAC mergers in June 2021, we said while we thought all five businesses were promising, one would likely be a dud. Ree looks like the dud. However, removing warrants will improve the company’s accounting and assist our aim to stick with the trade for profitability in the long-term. CONVERT WARRANTS TO SHARES IN COMPANY TENDER
ReNew Energy Global (RNWWW)
Warrants are slightly softer over the last week at 1.26. HOLD
Volta Inc (VLTA.WS)
Warrants are slightly firmer over the last week, at 58 cents. Shares of the EV charger maker are forming an uptrend line – it’s still weak overall, but encouraging. HOLD
Our next SX Greentech Advisor issue will be published Wednesday, September 7. Weekly updates are published every non-issue Wednesday, and any timely notices get distributed as needed. Get in touch with comments, suggestions and questions any time. Reach me at brendan@cabot.net. Thank you for subscribing.
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