With the calendar flipping to 2025 and the long holiday weeks/weekends behind us, most traders will be back at their desks starting today. Let the fun begin!

With the calendar flipping to 2025 and the long holiday weeks/weekends behind us, most traders will be back at their desks starting today. Let the fun begin!

Happy New Year to everyone and wishing you all the best investing in 2025.

Let’s keep in mind this year the merit in legendary global investor Sir John Templeton’s sage advice:

“Diversify. In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers.”

With this in mind, I see four big trends out there that offer us the opportunity to take a contrarian approach to make some money and lower risk.

It’s been a good year for the market and an even better year for the Stock of the Week portfolio, with the average year-to-date gain on open positions of 52%. Let’s hope the good times keep rolling in 2025. While I doubt the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will be able to maintain their torrid pace of the last two years, there are scores of under-loved sectors and stocks out there, and the bull market remains intact, ready to propel them forward in the New Year. Today, we add a little-known growth stock that just got the stamp of approval from Cabot Top Ten Trader Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo.

Details inside. And Happy New Year!

This week and next week’s Monday morning Week in Review will be focused on position updates so that I can spend the last two weekends of the year with my family. Then starting the week of January 6^th, it’s back to full blast for the Cabot Options Trader and Cabot Options Trader Pro service.

This week and next week’s Monday morning Week in Review will be focused on position updates so that I can spend the last two weekends of the year with my family. Then starting the week of January 6^th, it’s back to full blast for the Cabot Options Trader and Cabot Options Trader Pro service.

First off, this being our last issue of the year, all of us at Cabot wish you and yours a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back with a regular update next Thursday after the calendar flips.

As for the market, it’s been a fantastic year, with leading growth titles letting loose on the upside, and we’re happy to have made hay while the sun is shining—the year isn’t quite done but it’s looking like our second-best returns of the past 18 years, when I took over. We’re glad to have done right by you.

That said, we always deal with the here and now, so we’re riding into year-end in a cautious stance, as growth stocks have wobbled and our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicators are waving yellow flags. We’re definitely flexible, as some of the recent selling may have cleared the decks for another leg up, but given the evidence, we want to see strength first before embarking on another major buying spree. In this issue, we highlight more than a few names we could jump into if things go well, while sharing more details on our remaining stocks and the recent action.

Cannabis stocks are set to close out the year with a punishing 14% decline. Cannabis investors need help from anywhere they can get it.

It looks like it could come from an unusual place in 2025. The future of the cannabis industry is now in the hands of President-elect Donald Trump.

If anyone told me a few years ago this would be the case, I might have asked them what they are smoking.

However, the reality is that during his presidential campaign, Trump endorsed all three of the main reforms that would legitimize the industry and boost cannabis share prices: Rescheduling, bank reform known as SAFER banking, and legalization of recreational use. Trump endorsed the first two outright. He implicitly endorsed legal rec-use because he supported the Florida referendum which would have made this change. At the very least, he has openly endorsed decriminalization.

First and foremost, this is our last issue of 2024—next Tuesday is one of our two weeks off all year—so we want to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a healthy and prosperous New Year.

Also, before we dive into this week’s idea I wanted to address our December expiration cycle trades. Both NCLH and KD stocks finished above their strike prices, which means we walked away from those trades with our full profits.

First and foremost, this is our last issue of 2024—next Monday is one of our two weeks off all year—so we want to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back at it with a fresh Top Ten issue on January 6.

As for the market, things finished up with a nice rally last Friday, but that doesn’t undo the action of the prior couple of weeks as a whole, which saw many leaders take hits and many major indexes crack their intermediate-term uptrends. To be clear, we remain flexible, and if the buyers pounce on the recent weakness for a few days, we think there will be lots of “resumption” patterns among individual stocks. Still, given the near- and intermediate-term selling we’ve seen, we want to see buyers show up in a meaningful way first before putting a bunch of money back to work. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5.

This week’s list is once again very growth-y, which we do find encouraging. Our Top Pick showed exceptional power in November and has now rested for three weeks, offering up a solid entry point, though we advise starting small given the environment.

Jerome Powell went full Grinch last week, sparking a brief market selloff after saying the Fed would cut rates at a slower pace than expected in 2025. Prior to that, there were some obvious cracks beneath the market’s surface, so Powell’s downer of a press conference served more to expand the selling than cause it. But the nice rebound in the last two trading days shows the bulls are still mostly in charge, which means it’s a good time to add a mid-cap water stock that Tyler Laundon just introduced to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience.

Details inside. Happy Holidays!

The breadth worries that had so many traders on edge finally reared their ugly head and took a bite out of the market as the indexes took a big hit on Wednesday. By week’s end things had improved a touch, but still the S&P 500 fell 2.45%, the Dow lost 2.54%, and the Nasdaq declined by 2.71% last week.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Today is a horrid day for most growth and AI-related stocks, continuing the rotation that began last week. All in all, there remain lots of crosscurrents, with our market timing indicators now positive, but individual growth stocks remain very hit or miss, all while earnings season is starting to rev up. Thus, we continue to favor holding a chunk of cash on the sideline while taking things on a stock-by-stock basis. In the Model Portfolio, we did some buying earlier this week, adding half-sized stakes in the ProShares Russell 2000 Fund (UWM) and Robinhood (HOOD), though tonight we’re going to sell our remaining small position in Uber (UBER) while placing Pure Storage (PSTG) on Hold as it takes on water with most peers. Our cash position is around 36%, which we’ll hold onto tonight as we watch to see how the rotation progresses from here.

There isn’t much not to like about this market. After a strong first half of the year, the market is having a great July. And the rally is broadening out. It’s not just technology anymore.

Wow. Just wow. Not only has this market rally continued to forge on, it’s broadened out too. After a 14.5% gain in the first half of this year, the S&P is putting together an impressive July with a better than 3% gain so far.

The latest leg of this rally has been sparked by a better-than-expected June CPI report. Interest rate optimism abounds. Consensus now expects a Fed rate cut before the end of the year and an increased expectation that overall interest rates have peaked and are likely to trend lower for the rest of the year.

Wells Fargo (WFC) kicked off the Cabot Turnaround Letter earnings season today, showing solid EPS of $1.33/share, which exceeded estimates by 4 cents. WFC also beat revenue estimates by $410M, coming in at $20.69B, but the stock is trading lower this morning as the company posted a 9% YoY decline in net interest. We moved this one to HOLD back in the May 27 issue at 60, and it just hasn’t quite been able to clear that prior high. Given that we have a 119% overall gain on this stock in the rear-view mirror, and that interest rates – and therefore WFC earnings – are only likely to go lower from here, we’re moving this one to SELL.

At the index level, small-cap performance has been unremarkable (though stable) for a while, but under the hood, there continue to be plenty of performing names, and we’ve been fortunate enough to be in a number of them.

That said, there’s been some shifting of the deck this week with a few growthy stocks (TMDX, RXST) taking a bit of a hit. On the flip side, continued performance from the likes of ENVX and new addition (from June) AORT is very nice to see.

Explorer stocks put in a solid performance this week as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was on Capitol Hill for two days of testimony. His remarks were parsed as if he were an oracle, but the takeaway seems that we are moving towards a rate cut dependent on labor markets cooling off a bit more.

I really don’t like paying too much attention to macro issues like interest rates and would rather focus on new ideas that most investors are not following closely. Right now, in a market so dependent on a small number of leading stocks, you can reduce your portfolio’s overall risk profile by adding some stocks in countries and sectors where expectations and downside risk are low.

If it feels like value stocks are missing the bull market party this year, take comfort in knowing they’re not alone.

Thanks to the Magnificent Seven and a few other mega-cap tech stocks and red-hot artificial intelligence plays, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have posted very strong returns through the first half of 2024, up 17.6% and 24.8%, respectively. But most other indexes and funds have had very average years. The Dow is up a mere 4.2%. The Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) is up 0.8%. And the Equal Weight S&P 500 index is up 3.7% and is well off its late-March peak.

Old-school value managers like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett used to have a funny way of describing their investing style.

They said value stocks were like cigar butts on the sidewalk that had a few puffs left in them.

I’d like to offer an updated version of this metaphor. I think cannabis stocks have a few more puffs left in them between now and the end of the year.

Cannabis names are thoroughly unloved and abandoned once again.

This market rally keeps forging on no matter what. Technology cooled off but, no problem, other sectors are picking up the slack.

Interest rates have likely peaked. The chances of a Fed rate cut before the end of the year have increased. And the economy is still solid. Sectors rotate, headlines come and go, but as long as the main ingredients of future lower rates and a still-decent economy prevail, the market should be good.

Earnings season is over, so there were no companies that reported earnings this past week. However, the next earnings season is just around the corner, starting with Mattel (MAT) on July 23^rd.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The evidence remains mostly the same, with trendless, choppy action among the vast majority of stocks and sectors out there—we’re still overall bullish (especially longer-term), but for now, less seems to be more when it comes to taking action. In the Model Portfolio, we cut bait with Pulte (PHM) earlier this week as the stock broke down, leaving us with 37% in cash, and tonight we’re placing On Holding (ONON) on Hold, as the stock has turned weak. We are seeing more setups out there, so if the buyers can show up, we’ll likely put at least a little money to work, but today we’ll sit tight and see what comes after the holiday.

Well, the results are in for the first half of the year. And they’re very good. The S&P 500 soared an impressive 14.5% in the first six months of 2024. That’s a 29% annual pace. And it follows a 22% market return in 2023.

But I believe it is unlikely that the S&P will finish the year up 29%. That would be an epic year, but there are still a lot of challenges, like interest rates near the highest level in two decades. That means market returns must at least flatten out somewhat going forward. It’s also true that the technology rally has petered out in the last few weeks.

Sell Braze (BRZE)

Sell Gen Digital (GEN) and Part of Elastic (ESTC)

WHAT TO DO NOW: The story remains the same, with the primary evidence in good shape, though many leaders are extended and more are starting to wobble. Last Friday, we sold half of Elastic (ESTC), which got walloped on earnings, and today we’ll sell the rest, as the stock has continued to show weakness. That will leave us with 37% in cash, which is more than we’d prefer—we’ll hold on to it for the moment but could re-deploy some in the very near future.

GitLab (GTLB): Good Quarter, Questionable Guidance. Book The Gain

In Income Trader, we’ve managed to lock in a return of over 45% in BITO. Not many can say they’ve made money in BITO on a more consistent basis, or any other crypto-related asset, since the beginning of June 2022. Just another reason why more and more individual investors are flocking to the tried-and-true, mechanically driven, income wheel approach.

GLD has pushed through our short call strike and the deltas of our LEAPS and short call contract are at parity. As a result, let’s buy back our short call and sell more going out to the April expiration cycle. As a reminder to those with an established position, I will be selling our LEAPS contract the next time around and initiating a new LEAPS position going out to the January 2026 expiration cycle. Our position is up over 22%, while the individual ETF, by comparison, is only up 10% over the same time frame.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Not much has changed today vs. our update last night when it comes to the market, but after a couple of positive earnings reactions this week, today brought a downer—Elastic (ESTC) is getting hit after a good-not-great report. It’s not a complete meltdown given the recent move, but we’re going to sell half our position and see how the stock acts from here. Our cash position will now be around 33%.

My “plan” to enter the weekend patting myself on the back for a week of decent stock performance in our portfolio might be foiled by Elastic (ESTC).

For those who are new and wish to enter a trade, all of the details are listed in the alert (as always) for those wanting to initiate a position. As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.

Leonardo DRS (DRS) Rising

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.