Issues
Our Income Trader portfolio continues to shine with a total return of 159.2%.
We should be able to add to our total this week by locking in profits on our most conservative position, PFE. It’s only a paltry 1.4%, but the wheel approach lives on singles and doubles. Since we introduced PFE to the income wheel approach we’ve made a steady 30.89% in total returns (16 trades) while the stock has lost over 40%.
We should be able to add to our total this week by locking in profits on our most conservative position, PFE. It’s only a paltry 1.4%, but the wheel approach lives on singles and doubles. Since we introduced PFE to the income wheel approach we’ve made a steady 30.89% in total returns (16 trades) while the stock has lost over 40%.
Earnings season is behind us, but as always, there are a few companies yet to report earnings. Micron (MU) is our focus this week. With an IV rank of 93.1, it makes sense to look at a potential trading opportunity in the company, which I’ve done in the trade ideas below. The range we created looks nice and wide, while the premium is at attractive levels. The company is due to report after the closing bell today, so if we decide to place a trade look for an alert around mid-day Wednesday.
The markets saw mostly sideways action in the past month—the soothsayers are still debating when the Fed will begin reducing interest rates. Growth stocks held on to their leadership position, although value stocks are beginning to show life in 2024.
Good gracious, last week was volatile for the market as the indexes moved violently day-to-day. Yet, by the close of trading on Friday the S&P 500 and Dow were only down marginally on the week, while the Nasdaq had declined by 1.5%.
Bitcoin is sometimes referred to as “digital gold,” but investors should also have some of the real stuff. As J.P. Morgan put it, “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” So today, with gold prices on the rise, we add exposure to the yellow metal in the form of a low-risk streaming and royalty company.
Good gracious, last week was volatile for the market as the indexes moved violently day-to-day. Yet, by the close of trading on Friday the S&P 500 and Dow were only down marginally on the week, while the Nasdaq had declined by 1.5%.
The rich get richer. Now, you can too.
Growing businesses with big ambitions need large amounts of money to grow and expand to the next level. But these enterprises can’t get the necessary capital from stodgy and risk-averse bankers. And they are still too small to access the capital markets by issuing stock or bonds. Thus, they are forced into the domain of wealthy individuals and institutions that have money and are itching to reap high returns.
These venture capitalists provide desperately needed money to up-and-coming businesses that can’t get it anywhere else. Thus, they are in a position to negotiate very favorable terms for themselves.
As financial markets have grown in sophistication, venture capital investing is no longer the exclusive domain of the wealthy. There is a little-known class of security that enables regular investors to mimic the very same moneymaking strategies employed by the rich and famous. These securities are called Business Development Companies (BDCs).
In this issue, I highlight one of the most successful BDCs on the market. It pays dividends every single month, has a long and consistent track of raising payouts, and has delivered fantastic total returns.
Growing businesses with big ambitions need large amounts of money to grow and expand to the next level. But these enterprises can’t get the necessary capital from stodgy and risk-averse bankers. And they are still too small to access the capital markets by issuing stock or bonds. Thus, they are forced into the domain of wealthy individuals and institutions that have money and are itching to reap high returns.
These venture capitalists provide desperately needed money to up-and-coming businesses that can’t get it anywhere else. Thus, they are in a position to negotiate very favorable terms for themselves.
As financial markets have grown in sophistication, venture capital investing is no longer the exclusive domain of the wealthy. There is a little-known class of security that enables regular investors to mimic the very same moneymaking strategies employed by the rich and famous. These securities are called Business Development Companies (BDCs).
In this issue, I highlight one of the most successful BDCs on the market. It pays dividends every single month, has a long and consistent track of raising payouts, and has delivered fantastic total returns.
Good gracious, last week was volatile for the market as the indexes moved violently day-to-day. Yet, by the close of trading on Friday the S&P 500 and Dow were only down marginally on the week, while the Nasdaq had declined by 1.5%.
Starting a month ago, we began to see some leaders chop around, then we saw more short-term froth appear followed by Nvidia’s monstrous reversal last Friday. We’re not making any grand declarations here, but overall, most of the “extended” leaders are being tested, with more than a few wobbling and zeroing in on intermediate-term support and a few already cracking. Now, with that said, most of the other evidence remains fine, whether it’s for the overall market or for “fresher” leadership names, which continue to act well. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 7, but how things play out over the next few sessions will be key.
This week’s list mostly lives outside the tech arena, with many names that have recently taken off and some that are pulling into areas of support. Our Top Pick is blasted off in late January, enjoyed a big run and is now shaking out normally.
This week’s list mostly lives outside the tech arena, with many names that have recently taken off and some that are pulling into areas of support. Our Top Pick is blasted off in late January, enjoyed a big run and is now shaking out normally.
Stocks finally had a down week, though the damage was modest. Is it the start of a longer retreat, or a rare speed bump in a relentless bull market? This week could tell us a lot, especially with more inflation data set to print. To better fortify our portfolio against any potential turbulence, today we add an industrial stock that’s a strong value play that is a new addition from Bruce Kaser to his Cabot Value Investor portfolio.
We locked in 5.7% in BITO and 7.8% in GDX last week bringing our total return to 159.2%.
Our GDX position was “called away,” so I plan to start the income cycle over again in GDX by selling some puts early this week.
I plan to add at least one more stock to the portfolio this week, especially if we see the market pullback, which will bring our total to seven stocks. Moreover, I intend to continue to ladder our positions in perpetuity, so we are collecting premium on a weekly basis. As it stands, we have positions due to expire over the next four consecutive weeks.
Our GDX position was “called away,” so I plan to start the income cycle over again in GDX by selling some puts early this week.
I plan to add at least one more stock to the portfolio this week, especially if we see the market pullback, which will bring our total to seven stocks. Moreover, I intend to continue to ladder our positions in perpetuity, so we are collecting premium on a weekly basis. As it stands, we have positions due to expire over the next four consecutive weeks.
Earnings season is mostly behind us, but there are a few stragglers yet to report on the calendar. Oracle is on the agenda this week. With an IV rank of 99.9 it makes sense to look at a potential trading opportunity in the company, which I’ve done in the trade ideas below.
The company is due to report after the closing bell today, so if we decide to place a trade look for an alert around mid-day today.
The company is due to report after the closing bell today, so if we decide to place a trade look for an alert around mid-day today.
Updates
Each investor operates within their own time horizon. Day traders’ time horizon is the 4 p.m. ET market close, or shorter. Some traders focus on the calendar week, while most hedge fund traders have a month-end time horizon. Mutual funds focus on a quarterly or at most annual time horizon. Financial commentators have their own time horizons, as well. Bombastic TV or live-streaming pundits usually focus on very short horizons – “what has the stock done for me lately” is their mantra. The definition of “lately” can change but usually means “the past few weeks” or “since it stopped going up.”
The market is changing. The risk is shifting from more Fed rate hikes and inflation to a growing possibility of recession in the quarters ahead. The math is changing and so is market rotation.
At the same time, earnings season is here, and we are likely in an earnings recession already. Average S&P 500 earnings shrunk 4% last quarter and are forecast to fall 5% this quarter. Much of that expectation is already reflected in prices and investors will be carefully watching the guidance for future quarters. If that is negative, companies that can continue to grow earnings and buck the trend should be at a premium.
At the same time, earnings season is here, and we are likely in an earnings recession already. Average S&P 500 earnings shrunk 4% last quarter and are forecast to fall 5% this quarter. Much of that expectation is already reflected in prices and investors will be carefully watching the guidance for future quarters. If that is negative, companies that can continue to grow earnings and buck the trend should be at a premium.
This week kicks off our earnings season, with Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting. There were no ratings changes this past week.
With the arrival of spring vacation week for our kids, we are on a lighter publication schedule, with brief Friday notes (to include earnings) and no podcast on Friday, April 14 and Friday, April 21. Also, the monthly letter will be pushed back a week to Wednesday, May 3. We’ll continue to monitor the holdings list and provide any alerts if necessary.
With the arrival of spring vacation week for our kids, we are on a lighter publication schedule, with brief Friday notes (to include earnings) and no podcast on Friday, April 14 and Friday, April 21. Also, the monthly letter will be pushed back a week to Wednesday, May 3. We’ll continue to monitor the holdings list and provide any alerts if necessary.
The market is still like a jar of mixed nuts. Some good, some bad.
Earnings season begins this week as large-cap banks start delivering Q1 results. Across small-, mid- and large-cap stocks (all sectors) earnings estimates have been trending down for several quarters.
Earnings season begins this week as large-cap banks start delivering Q1 results. Across small-, mid- and large-cap stocks (all sectors) earnings estimates have been trending down for several quarters.
It can pay to pay attention to what investment legends are doing to cope in these turbulent times.
Warren Buffett still has a knack for seeking value and a history of going to Japan to find it in times of volatility. Overall, Japan’s Topix index trades at 13.3 times expected earnings, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That compares with 18.9 times for the S&P 500.
Warren Buffett still has a knack for seeking value and a history of going to Japan to find it in times of volatility. Overall, Japan’s Topix index trades at 13.3 times expected earnings, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That compares with 18.9 times for the S&P 500.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to play things in the middle, as the on-again, off-again environment remains in place. We are seeing some improvement from our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicator, which is a plus, but most of the evidence is stuck in the middle, so we think having a good chunk of cash as well as a few resilient growth names makes sense. We have no changes in the Model Portfolio tonight; our cash position remains just under 50%.
The cannabis sector remains under pressure. But the stock price weakness makes the group a good buy for contrarians because there are plausible catalysts on the horizon.
Let’s be clear. It won’t be easy to buy. It never is, when sentiment is so dark.
Buying right never feels good, as the saying goes. When the right time to buy comes along, you won’t want to, is how technical analyst Walter Deemer puts it.
Let’s be clear. It won’t be easy to buy. It never is, when sentiment is so dark.
Buying right never feels good, as the saying goes. When the right time to buy comes along, you won’t want to, is how technical analyst Walter Deemer puts it.
As widely reported, Jamie Dimon, the 23-year-and-counting CEO of JPMorgan and its predecessor Bank One, recently penned his annual letter to shareholders. The 43-page tome covered topics ranging from the bank’s “Steadfast Principles Worth Repeating” to “Our Serious Need for More Effective Public Policy and Competent Government” along with some impressive numbers about JPMorgan’s financial, operational and share price performance over the decades.
It’s a big week. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report comes out on Wednesday. The number may determine the short-term course of the market.
Stocks have trended higher over the past month as the banking situation has so far tempered the Fed without any offsetting crisis. There now seems to be a greater likelihood of a recession later this year, but investors are also pricing in Fed rate cuts in the second half. That’s the dicey part.
Stocks have trended higher over the past month as the banking situation has so far tempered the Fed without any offsetting crisis. There now seems to be a greater likelihood of a recession later this year, but investors are also pricing in Fed rate cuts in the second half. That’s the dicey part.
This holiday-shortened week was relatively light on news, as investors digested signs of a weakening economy in front of what likely will be a fascinating earnings season.
Next Friday, Wells Fargo (WFC) kicks off our earnings season, likely providing at least some insights, along with those provided by several other major banks that report that day, into the banking industry’s current stresses. Our other banks report later, with First Horizon (FHN) on April 18 and Capital One Financial (COF) on April 27.
Next Friday, Wells Fargo (WFC) kicks off our earnings season, likely providing at least some insights, along with those provided by several other major banks that report that day, into the banking industry’s current stresses. Our other banks report later, with First Horizon (FHN) on April 18 and Capital One Financial (COF) on April 27.
The market was impressive last week. The S&P 500 moved 3.5% higher for the week, accounting for nearly half of the better than 7% YTD return. Hopefully the rally has further to go.
Investors love it that the banking issues have had the benefit of tempering the Fed with no apparent offsetting crisis so far. The expected timeline for the Fed to stop raising rates has moved way up, to one more rate hike from what could have been a hiking cycle that lasted the rest of the year.
Investors love it that the banking issues have had the benefit of tempering the Fed with no apparent offsetting crisis so far. The expected timeline for the Fed to stop raising rates has moved way up, to one more rate hike from what could have been a hiking cycle that lasted the rest of the year.
Alerts
Yesterday I sent out our first Dogs of the Dow with some notes on the investment strategy, our approach to poor man’s covered calls and a detailed discussion on the trade mechanics.
Today I’m going to open a conservative iron condor in IWM going out to the February expiration cycle (44 days until expiration). We need to start ramping up our premium for February, so I plan on starting with an iron condor and hopefully adding a bear call and bull put spread to the mix over the coming days.
Enovix (ENVX) management hosted a two-hour-long presentation from their Fremont, CA factory yesterday afternoon that went deep into the company’s outlook for battery production, sales projections and customer interest. The team also talked about new senior management hires.
The Dogs of the Dow is an investment strategy that involves investing in the top ten Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks with the highest dividend yields. The theory behind the investment strategy is that the highest-yielding stocks have most likely lagged the market and as a result, are undervalued and due to outperform in the year ahead.
We currently own the VTI January 19, 2024, 145 call LEAPS contract at $54.50. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.
Our BITO 12 calls for the December 30, 2022, expiration cycle are essentially worthless. As a result, I want to buy back our BITO calls, lock in our premium and immediately sell more premium going out 32 days.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
We currently own the VTI January 19, 2024, 145 call LEAPS contract at $54.50. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.
We’ve had lots of good fortune over the past six months in the Quant Trader service. Our quant-based approach where probabilities lead the way has led to 18 out 19 winning trades since starting the service back in early June.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.