Before I dive into this morning’s Cabot Options Trader Weekly Update, I wanted to bring to your attention that the Mintz family will be traveling to Europe this Wednesday through the following Wednesday.

And while I will be offline in terms of trading, answering questions, and the Daily Order Flow list, I will keep a distant eye on our positions and if we need to act, I will send instructions.

After a very sharp dip for most major indexes and especially the Nasdaq, a bounce is underway. When looking at individual stocks, we’re fairly encouraged with what we see, which is a good sign that there will be leadership to sink our teeth into once this correction finishes up. But, at this point, we can’t conclude the correction is over, with most major indexes and key measures still buried under resistance (such as 50-day lines) and with formerly strong areas (chips, etc.) still looking suspect. We’re not opposed to a nibble here or there, but we continue to think remaining patient will pay off. We’ll move our Market Monitor up to a level 5, but still think keeping plenty of cash on the sideline makes sense.

This week’s list is chock-full of names that are acting great, most of which have recently shown big-volume strength after earnings, though we prefer to aim for dips in many cases. Our Top Pick is a familiar name that staged a classic earnings-induced breakout last week.

Calm has been restored to the stock market, at least for now. A week ago – when the VIX briefly spiked as high as 66(!) – it was the opposite of calm. So even if stocks don’t suddenly go straight back up again, this is a welcome return to pre-August form. With that in mind, we have no new sells or downgrades (several of our stocks are hitting new highs!), and we add a very normal-looking growth stock that’s been sailing along just fine despite the many headwinds of the last few weeks. It’s a recent recommendation from Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader.

Details inside.

The market’s pullback went over the falls late last week and on Monday, with panicky trading leading to a huge gap down--and possibly a short-term low. Overall, the evidence tells us the intermediate-term trend is down and that, even if we have bottomed, plenty of repair work will be needed. That said, the longer-term evidence is still positive and, frankly, we’re not having trouble filling up our watch list for potential fresh leaders. Long story short, we remain cautious here and hold lots of cash, but we’re not sticking our head in the sand, either, and could have a couple of small moves if the market continues to stabilize.

I have to admit, a couple of weeks ago, on our Cabot Street Check podcast, Chris Preston, host and Chief Analyst for Cabot Value Investor, and I discussed the possibility of a recession and I commented that I thought recession fears were mostly over.

Well, I’m going to reconsider that (a bit) after Monday’s 1,000+ point loss in the Dow. Last week’s jobs report came in at 114,000 jobs—considerably less than the 185,000 expected—spooking the markets and causing economic gurus to once again bring up the possibility of the dreaded “R” word. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% and manufacturing and construction spending were also less than expected, furthering economic worries.

The dramatic decline in the stock market of the last couple weeks has pushed two of our positions through our stops. And because of that we are going to exit those positions …

Please note, S&P 500 futures are indicated lower by approximately 4.5% this morning, while the Nasdaq is looking down 5.5%. I go into some of the reasons why below.

Regardless of the reasons, I do not expect to buy or sell many positions today. Instead, as I’ve said for weeks as the trading action had become murkier, I continue to preach patience.

Moving on to our Week in Review …

Please note, S&P 500 futures are indicated lower by approximately 4.5% this morning, while the Nasdaq is looking down 5.5%. I go into some of the reasons why below.

Regardless of the reasons, I do not expect to buy or sell many positions today. Instead, as I’ve said for weeks as the trading action had become murkier, I continue to preach patience.

Moving on to our Week in Review …

It looked like the bulls were ready to put up a fight last Wednesday, but it’s been all down since then, lowlighted by today’s action. Stepping back, we have two thoughts: Short term, there was definitely some panic today, and the fact that we saw a solid intraday bounce (closed well off the lows) implies some sort of bounce is possible. That said, the sharp, straight-down action from the market peak less than four weeks ago tells us a good amount of repair work is needed even if we do bounce. In terms of actions, we haven’t been pushing the envelope for many weeks, so if you have a good-sized cash position, we wouldn’t necessarily sell wholesale. That said, you should honor most stops (simply holding everything and hoping isn’t advised) while remaining patient. We’ll drop our Market Monitor to a level 4 (from 6) given the damage.

This week’s list has a lot of proper charts even after the latest selling storm. For our Top Pick, we’re going with a well-situated biotech firm that popped on positive drug trial results that will dramatically expand the opportunity for the big-selling drugs already on the market.

It’s become a full-blown market correction. When will the selling stop? No one knows. But as always, when it does, there will be ample opportunities to make huge profits on the other end of it. In the meantime, we prune a few of our hardest-hit positions today and add a new position designed to capture growth in the fastest-rising economic power in the world, India. It’s a brand-new recommendation from Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory.

Details inside.

Going into last week we knew it had the potential to be a wild five-day stretch, and the market didn’t disappoint as the indexes swung violently, and sector rotation was intense. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 1.55%, the Dow had rallied 0.5%, and the Nasdaq had lost 3.8%.

Going into last week we knew it had the potential to be a wild five-day stretch, and the market didn’t disappoint as the indexes swung violently, and sector rotation was intense. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 1.55%, the Dow had rallied 0.5%, and the Nasdaq had lost 3.8%.

A major challenge in 2024 for investors and analysts alike will be separating the artificial intelligence (AI) “pretenders” from the “contenders.” Super Micro Computer (SMCI), a recent Explorer recommendation, was up 23% this week, and Exscientia (EXAI) shares were up 13% yesterday.

Back on December 27 I suggested holding off on cannabis sector purchases given the group strength at the time. We had realized nice gains, and it did not make sense to chase the stocks. “I prefer to add on weakness rather than strength,” I wrote. I recommended adding on weakness of 2% to 4% or more in any of our portfolio names.

The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) and AdvisorShares MSOS 2X Daily (MSOX) exchange traded funds (ETFs) closed that day at 6.93 and 3.60, respectively, and went on to fall 4.5% to 9% over the next few trading days.

It’s been widely noted that the stock market’s sloppy start to 2024 is among the worst in a decade, or longer. Traders and TV commentators carry on about how the first trading day, or week, or month, sets the tone for the entire year. “How goes January, so goes the year” is a frequently bandied saying. It’s enough to make an investor toss in the towel and wait until 2025.

The longer I am in the investing world, the less I listen to this banter. It all sounds great, and maybe there are some years in which these ultra-short-term trends-as-predictors pan out, but they are so unreliable that they are worthless at best. Even if they had a 100% accuracy rate, why make a bet that this perfect record will continue?

The new year started with a whimper. Last week’s 1.5% down move ended a streak of nine consecutive up weeks for the S&P 500, the longest streak since 2004.

The streak had to end eventually. And a pullback after a 15% move higher is normal. Bull markets tend to have several 3% and 5% down moves. There may be more downside in the weeks ahead. But we are still in a market that is trending higher.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA). Our note also includes the monthly Catalyst Report and a summary of the January edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published a week ago Wednesday.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to lean bullish, but let’s see how this growth stock selling wave progresses. The top-down evidence remains in fine shape when it comes to the overall market, and most growth stocks have fallen off this week, but done so normally (while a few others may be trying to emerge). Thus, we’re giving names some rope, but we’re not tolerating any intermediate-term breaks. In yesterday’s special bulletin, we sold half of DraftKings (DKNG) and placed Duolingo (DUOL) on Hold, leaving us with 27% in cash. We’ll stand pat tonight, though are watching things closely and will be in touch if we have any more changes in the days ahead.

The new year is starting with big momentum. The S&P 500 had a torrid late-year rally where it soared about 16% between late October and the end of the year. Stocks closed out the year with nine straight up weeks, the longest streak since 2004.

The final numbers are in. And they’re impressive.

After a bear market in 2022, the market indexes came back sharply in 2023. That’s not unusual. Prior to last year, there had been nine years of negative S&P 500 returns since 1980. Seven of those down years were followed by up years, and four of those seven up years posted returns of 20% or higher. The market doesn’t usually stay beaten down for long.

There were no earnings reports or ratings changes this week. Due to the holidays, we will not be publishing a Friday note or podcast next week. The Cabot Turnaround Letter will be published next Wednesday, and our Friday note and podcast will resume on January 5, 2024.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but don’t be surprised to see some uneasy trading. Yesterday’s market selloff was overdue, but it did nothing to change any intermediate-term evidence with the market or leading stocks. Near term, it’s probably more of a coin flip as to what happens, so we are picking our spots. In the Model Portfolio, we could have some more new buys soon but tonight we’ll hold off. We will, however, switch DraftKings (DKNG) to a Hold rating. Our cash position will remain around 26%.

First off, just a little housekeeping. I’ll be taking time next week to spend with my family, parents, siblings and new niece in Vermont. Much of our production staff will also be taking some time off, so there won’t be a Weekly Update next Thursday. If there is any pressing news I’ll address it via Special Bulletin.

I hope you have a Happy Holiday season!

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

We currently own the JPM January 17, 2025, 100 call LEAPS contract at $46.20. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.

I will be exiting the American Express (AXP) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our upcoming weekly issue.

I will be holding a subscriber-only webinar tomorrow at 12 p.m. ET. Click here to sign up. No worries if you can’t make it, we archive everything here at Cabot. You can find all the archived recordings here.

I’m buying back our short calls in AAPL and TXN and immediately selling more calls. Additionally, I plan to add a brand-new stock to the portfolio over the coming days. Stay tuned.

I’m going to buy back our short calls in EEM and EFA and immediately sell more call premium going out to the December 1, 2023, expiration cycle. I plan to roll our remaining October 20, 2023 call positions in SPY, TIP and VNQ tomorrow.

With the October 20, 2023, expiration cycle coming to a close in a few days, it’s time to start buying back the rest of our October 20, 2023 short calls and selling more premium going out 30 to 60 days. I’ll be sending out numerous trade alerts for the various portfolios over the next few days, including a few new names in our active portfolios.

As I stated in our earlier alert, I will be sending out numerous alerts over the next few days. With 5 days left until the October expiration cycle, now is the ideal time to begin looking to buy back our short calls and sell more call premium going out to the November expiration cycle.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.