Issues
So much for the market rebound. Or is this a classic double bottom before the real rally begins after Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” full of Trump’s latest round of mysterious tariffs finally passes and Wall Street breathes a collective sigh of relief? I’m betting the clouds part sooner rather than later, as investor pessimism has reached levels not seen since the October 2022 bear market bottom. So today, despite saying goodbye to a few more underperforming positions, I’m betting on the upside of growth, adding a mid-cap software stock recently recommended by Tyler Laundon to his Cabot Early Opportunities readers.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Please note, I will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week, which means I will not send a Daily morning Option Order Flow email Tuesday through Thursday. And while I will be traveling, as always, I will keep my eye on the market and if we need to act on a position, I will send an update or alert.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
Please note, I will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week, which means I will not send a Daily morning Option Order Flow email Tuesday through Thursday. And while I will be traveling, as always, I will keep my eye on the market and if we need to act on a position, I will send an update or alert.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
The markets continue to lack direction and are buffeted by uncertainty regarding tariffs, taxes and spending, debt and conflict, but yesterday came to life as concerns over some of these risks were mollified. Nevertheless, broadening and diversifying your portfolio makes sense to maintain an objective of growth while also being mindful of protecting your wealth.
This brings us to gold - and today’s recommendation.
This brings us to gold - and today’s recommendation.
The cannabis sector remains unloved as investors abandon hope that President Donald Trump will come through on his campaign promise to reschedule the drug.
Moving cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act would help cannabis companies by obviating an IRS rule that prohibits them from deducting operating expenses (Rule 280E).
I continue to think Trump will live up to his “promises made, promises kept” mantra. It will take some time, because he’s obviously active on many fronts, and cannabis reform does not rise to the level of top priority. Polls continue to show the majority of voters favor reform, particularly younger voters. So, there’s a favorable political angle for conservatives in cannabis reform. Cannabis sales growth continues to be particularly strong (6.2%) in Missouri, a red state.
Moving cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act would help cannabis companies by obviating an IRS rule that prohibits them from deducting operating expenses (Rule 280E).
I continue to think Trump will live up to his “promises made, promises kept” mantra. It will take some time, because he’s obviously active on many fronts, and cannabis reform does not rise to the level of top priority. Polls continue to show the majority of voters favor reform, particularly younger voters. So, there’s a favorable political angle for conservatives in cannabis reform. Cannabis sales growth continues to be particularly strong (6.2%) in Missouri, a red state.
The first quarter of 2025 has been interesting, to say the least. We wrap it up with the March Issue featuring names across the software, security, coffee chain, specialty metals and sports betting markets.
A few familiar faces, and a few new ones, should mean something for everybody. Details inside.
A few familiar faces, and a few new ones, should mean something for everybody. Details inside.
In uncertain times like these, it’s only natural that defensive-minded investors are gravitating to healthcare stocks. After all, this space is characterized by consistent demand for essential products and services that millions rely on, regardless of the state of the economy. (Additionally, many of the companies in this category offer dividends that can be considered quite attractive during market sell-offs.)
While the sector itself has only lately returned to favor, a number of consumer-facing healthcare companies remain out of Wall Street’s good graces and under the public’s radar—including some which provide critical staple products for the everyday needs of consumers.
One of those companies is today’s turnaround recommendation.
While the sector itself has only lately returned to favor, a number of consumer-facing healthcare companies remain out of Wall Street’s good graces and under the public’s radar—including some which provide critical staple products for the everyday needs of consumers.
One of those companies is today’s turnaround recommendation.
After falling into correction territory earlier this month, the S&P 500 came off the bottom and has been trending higher. Is that the end of the selling? I don’t think the market has decided yet.
Some tariff clarity could arrive soon. Stocks rallied strongly to start the week partially on news that pending tariffs will be more “targeted.” Technology stocks also rallied on the perception of higher-than-expected AI demand. But the market is very headline sensitive. And the headlines are likely to keep on coming.
If I had to bet, I would say the market probably made the bottom for now and is more likely to trend higher. But I don’t have a high degree of confidence right now. A couple of negative headlines could send stocks plunging to new lows.
There are some select stocks that are actually near the 52-week high. I’m more comfortable selling a covered call on a stock with recent strong performance than initiating a new stock position at this point. In this issue, I highlight a covered call for the biopharmaceutical company AbbVie Inc. (ABBV).
Some tariff clarity could arrive soon. Stocks rallied strongly to start the week partially on news that pending tariffs will be more “targeted.” Technology stocks also rallied on the perception of higher-than-expected AI demand. But the market is very headline sensitive. And the headlines are likely to keep on coming.
If I had to bet, I would say the market probably made the bottom for now and is more likely to trend higher. But I don’t have a high degree of confidence right now. A couple of negative headlines could send stocks plunging to new lows.
There are some select stocks that are actually near the 52-week high. I’m more comfortable selling a covered call on a stock with recent strong performance than initiating a new stock position at this point. In this issue, I highlight a covered call for the biopharmaceutical company AbbVie Inc. (ABBV).
Despite some more worrisome price action throughout the week, the three leading indexes were able to eke out gains last week. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Dow rallied 1.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 0.2%.
Nobody is going to claim that the past couple of weeks have been perfect, but given where things stood following the market’s three-week mini-crash, the recent action has been constructive; short term, we’d expect more upside testing, too. That said, on an intermediate-term basis, there’s much more work to do, as the trends remain down, most indexes have recouped easily less than half of their prior declines and the majority of stocks are actually still below 200-day lines. We are going to bump up our Market Monitor a notch to a level 4 to respect the action, but overall we remain cautious as we wait to see how this bottom-building process develops.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though all of them have shown some intriguing strength of late as the market has found support. Our Top Pick has pushed back to its old highs on great volume after some positive news last week.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though all of them have shown some intriguing strength of late as the market has found support. Our Top Pick has pushed back to its old highs on great volume after some positive news last week.
Calm has been restored to the stock market, at least for now. And while stocks haven’t exploded to the upside, it does appear as if a temporary bottom has been put in. With that in mind, today we add a pure growth stock – a cybersecurity play with plenty of momentum, recommended by Mike Cintolo to his Cabot Top Ten Trader audience last week. We also have no sells from our own portfolio, as many of them have been in full recovery mode the last week or two.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Despite some more worrisome price action throughout the week, the three leading indexes were able to eke out gains. For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Dow rallied 1.2% and the Nasdaq advanced by 0.2%.
Updates
It has been a great market for most of the last two years. But the bull run will be severely tested over the next couple of weeks.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
It has been a great market for most of the last two years. But the bull market chops will be severely tested over the next couple of weeks.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
In today’s note, we discuss a flurry of key news developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Baxter International (BAX), B2Gold (BTG), Intel (INTC), Polaris (PII), Solventum (SOLV), Viatris (VTRS) and Vodaphone (VOD).
We’re adding two new stocks to the portfolio, providing us with exposure to the white-hot silver mining sector as well as the seasonally strong food services industry.
We’ll also discuss some catalysts for the under-the-radar restaurant group, including three very attractive potential turnaround plays.
We’re adding two new stocks to the portfolio, providing us with exposure to the white-hot silver mining sector as well as the seasonally strong food services industry.
We’ll also discuss some catalysts for the under-the-radar restaurant group, including three very attractive potential turnaround plays.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains in good shape, though we have seen the indexes and many individual titles exhale a bit of late as many short-term uncertainties (earnings season and the election) and headwinds (rising interest rates) weigh. We’re bullish overall, but are being selective on the buy side—tonight, we’re standing pat, holding our 20%-ish cash position and collection of relatively strong performers.
The S&P 600 SmallCap Index has dipped about 3% over the last week while yields have gone up.
The chart of the 10-year yield and the small-cap index plotted together makes this inverse relationship (in the very short term) clear as day.
The chart of the 10-year yield and the small-cap index plotted together makes this inverse relationship (in the very short term) clear as day.
October hasn’t been accompanied by the type of stock selling we’ve witnessed the last two years, when U.S. markets fell sharply in October and reached a second-half-of-the-year bottom both times. Instead, this October has wrought a more subtle disappointment: rising interest rates.
Indeed, despite the Fed’s 50-basis point cut to the federal funds rate in mid-September ringing in a new era of rate slashing, 10-year Treasury yields have risen steadily since the calendar flipped to October, going from 3.80% to 4.24% – their highest level since July. In fact, Treasury yields are up 15% since September 18, the day the Fed cut rates for the first time in four and a half years.
Indeed, despite the Fed’s 50-basis point cut to the federal funds rate in mid-September ringing in a new era of rate slashing, 10-year Treasury yields have risen steadily since the calendar flipped to October, going from 3.80% to 4.24% – their highest level since July. In fact, Treasury yields are up 15% since September 18, the day the Fed cut rates for the first time in four and a half years.
The market has been generally very good, although it’s wobbling this week so far.
The bull market that started two years ago has returned more than 60% in the S&P 500. The index is up about 23% year to date. The market rally has also broadened since the summer to include many other stocks and sectors besides technology.
The bull market that started two years ago has returned more than 60% in the S&P 500. The index is up about 23% year to date. The market rally has also broadened since the summer to include many other stocks and sectors besides technology.
In today’s note, we discuss the reasons why it’s a good time to exit our (mostly) profitable holdings in Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Nokia (NOK), Tyson Foods (TSN) and Zillow (Z).
We’re adding two new stocks to the portfolio, providing us with exposure to the booming software and utilities sectors.
We’ll also discuss some catalysts for three stocks across three different sectors in what look to be powerful intermediate-term turnarounds.
We’re adding two new stocks to the portfolio, providing us with exposure to the booming software and utilities sectors.
We’ll also discuss some catalysts for three stocks across three different sectors in what look to be powerful intermediate-term turnarounds.
While the S&P 500 Index made record highs (again) this week, the real story has been in small caps.
From last Wednesday’s close through mid-day today, the S&P 600 small-cap index is up 2.9%, more than twice the return of the large-cap index, which is up 1.3%.
The gains have been propelled by consumer discretionary, staples, financials, industrials and tech stocks.
From last Wednesday’s close through mid-day today, the S&P 600 small-cap index is up 2.9%, more than twice the return of the large-cap index, which is up 1.3%.
The gains have been propelled by consumer discretionary, staples, financials, industrials and tech stocks.
Bank stocks such as Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) had strong earnings while tech is starting to show signs of weakness. ASML (ASML) reported sharply lower quarterly sales and giant Samsung Electronics’ share price (listed on the Korea Exchange) has fallen almost 30% over the past six months as it struggles to catch up with SK Hynix and Micron in supplying the most advanced AI chips.
Still, everyone is waiting for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings as capital spending in AI remains robust.
Still, everyone is waiting for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings as capital spending in AI remains robust.
We spend the vast majority of our time focused on U.S. stocks, and rightly so.
After all, although America has just 4% of the world’s population and generates 23% of the global GDP, 72% of worldwide investment capital is spent on U.S. stocks. That’s a stat our global investing expert, Carl Delfeld, relayed to me and my colleague Brad Simmerman on our latest Street Check podcast (click here to listen to the entire conversation). I knew the global investment axis tilted toward the U.S. – just maybe not that much.
After all, although America has just 4% of the world’s population and generates 23% of the global GDP, 72% of worldwide investment capital is spent on U.S. stocks. That’s a stat our global investing expert, Carl Delfeld, relayed to me and my colleague Brad Simmerman on our latest Street Check podcast (click here to listen to the entire conversation). I knew the global investment axis tilted toward the U.S. – just maybe not that much.
The two-year-old bull market is about to meet third-quarter earnings. And things look good.
The bull market is alive and well and shows no signs of stopping. Since the bear market low in October of 2022, the S&P 500 has risen over 60%. It has been powered by the artificial intelligence catalyst, a surprisingly resilient economy, and the peaking of interest rates. The current “soft landing” expectation means we are getting rate cuts but no economic pain. That’s good news.
The bull market is alive and well and shows no signs of stopping. Since the bear market low in October of 2022, the S&P 500 has risen over 60%. It has been powered by the artificial intelligence catalyst, a surprisingly resilient economy, and the peaking of interest rates. The current “soft landing” expectation means we are getting rate cuts but no economic pain. That’s good news.
Alerts
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has a great story (next-gen Da Vinci 5 platform) but shares have been irresponsive to the potential and failed to make any sustained progress after the March 18 earnings report.
Soleno (SLNO) gave a business update/reported Q1 results after the close yesterday. Not much new to talk about given the recent (April 29) announcement (covered in a Special Bulletin that day) that the FDA granted the company’s lead drug candidate (DCCR) Breakthrough Therapy Designation for the treatment of adults and children ages 4 years and older with Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS).
Shares of Docebo (DCBO) opened lower this morning after the company delivered a Q1 beat after the close yesterday but lowered full-year guidance.
When it comes to small appliances, SharkNinja (SN) is one of the more innovative players out there, and the company’s mass-market appeal and expansion into new categories continue to deliver impressive results.
Rivian (RIVN) has been our dog in the portfolio but I’ve held on because I think the potential for shares to come back and ultimately work well is still there. Yesterday’s first-quarter results don’t suggest that will happen right away, but there are certainly some bright spots.
Shares of Intapp (INTA) should open higher today after the company beat Q3 fiscal 2024 expectations after the close yesterday. Revenue grew 20.2% to $110.6 million, beating by $2.4 million (2.3%), while EPS of $0.14 was up from a penny in the year-ago quarter and beat by $0.07.
New kid on the block Zeta (ZETA) is starting the week off with a bang after the Q1 report yesterday sailed past expectations.
Shares of GoDaddy (GDDY) are trading about flat today as the stock digests yesterday’s slightly better-than-expected Q1 report. The story here remains intact as we look forward to the full launch of Airo, the company’s new AI-powered solution for website creation and management, a significant pain point/roadblock for creators.
Enovix (ENVX) Up On Q1 Results and Development Agreement, Weave Communications (WEAV) Dips After Q1 Report
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals Portfolio
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals: All-Weather Portfolio
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Fundamentals: All-Weather Portfolio
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.