Issues
The markets have continued their bullish momentum so far in 2024, with growth stocks continuing to lead the way—especially large caps, which are up 32.94% so far this year.
Sector-wise, Communication Services (up 9.74%), Technology (up 5.07%), and Healthcare (up 4.11%) are the winners so far, with Real Estate (down 4.37%), Utilities (-2.91%), and Consumer Discretionary (-0/83%) the losing sectors.
Housing inventory is still tight, with prices remaining a little lofty. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index came in at a 5.4% rise, which was a bit less than the 5.7% forecast, but still higher than the month before.
Sector-wise, Communication Services (up 9.74%), Technology (up 5.07%), and Healthcare (up 4.11%) are the winners so far, with Real Estate (down 4.37%), Utilities (-2.91%), and Consumer Discretionary (-0/83%) the losing sectors.
Housing inventory is still tight, with prices remaining a little lofty. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index came in at a 5.4% rise, which was a bit less than the 5.7% forecast, but still higher than the month before.
Despite some worries early in the week, the bulls once again bought the dip, and pushed the indexes near all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow gained approximately 1.35%, and the Nasdaq rallied 1.7%.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the February 2024 issue.
Spin-offs should be in every value investor’s toolkit. In this issue, we are adding a spin-off, Worthington Enterprises (WOR), to our Buy recommendations roster.
We comment on recent earnings from Comcast (CMCSA) and provide updates on our other recommended stocks.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
Spin-offs should be in every value investor’s toolkit. In this issue, we are adding a spin-off, Worthington Enterprises (WOR), to our Buy recommendations roster.
We comment on recent earnings from Comcast (CMCSA) and provide updates on our other recommended stocks.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
The primary evidence remains bullish, so we’re still thinking mostly positive, especially when looking at the big picture. But there’s no question things are getting more and more divergent: The broad market and even most big-cap stocks are flat to down so far this year, and more recently, as interest rates have backed up and financial stocks get hit, we’re seeing selling pressures start to spread. That doesn’t necessarily portend doom, but coming on the heels of a multi-month advance, this kind of action does raise the risk of a change in character; we’re going to pull our Market Monitor down a notch to level 7—still bullish, but holding a little cash, booking some partial profits on the way up and being more discerning on the buy side makes sense.
This week’s list has its share of hot stocks, and we’re impressed that we’re still seeing some strong earnings winners that are moving on very, very strong volume. For our Top Pick, we’ll go outside the tech space with a name that just lifted out of a multi-month base on earnings and could be leading a new group move. Try to buy on dips.
This week’s list has its share of hot stocks, and we’re impressed that we’re still seeing some strong earnings winners that are moving on very, very strong volume. For our Top Pick, we’ll go outside the tech space with a name that just lifted out of a multi-month base on earnings and could be leading a new group move. Try to buy on dips.
The major indexes are up to new highs, though they again have become very dependent on the Magnificent Seven in the last month after stocks of virtually all sizes and sectors rallied in November and December. Outside the Mag Seven, most stocks have been stagnant so far in 2024. Not so in the Stock of the Week portfolio, where we have multiple stocks hitting new highs, none of which belong to the Mag Seven, and TWO stocks that have doubled in the last year! We try and keep the hot streak going by adding a familiar, big-name growth stock that was beaten to a pulp during the bear market of 2022 and 2023 but has demonstrated some real momentum in the last three months. It’s a recent recommendation from Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld.
We made our third straight successful trade for this earnings cycle late last week. We were thankful to take quick profits in Microsoft (MSFT) Wednesday morning. All went as planned as MSFT opened well within the chosen range of our iron condor and, as a result, we were able to take off the trade for a nice one-day gain of 11.1%. Our total return for this earnings cycle stands at 23.2%.
Not much to say this week. The plan remains simple. I continue to focus on balancing out the overall deltas of our current positions by adding a trade, most likely a bull put spread. I’ll be concentrating on sector ETFs and individual stocks as the major indices continue to see low levels of volatility.
As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.
As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.
Despite some worries early in the week, the bulls once again bought the dip, and pushed the indexes near all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow gained approximately 1.35%, and the Nasdaq rallied 1.7%.
Despite some worries early in the week, the bulls once again bought the dip, and pushed the indexes near all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow gained approximately 1.35%, and the Nasdaq rallied 1.7%.
We were able to sell some call premium in PFE and put premium in BITO. As a result, we now have 6 positions in the portfolio with the hope to add a few more sources of income over the next week or two.
January offered us another good month as we brought in over 12% worth of premium. Let’s continue to keep it simple, stay mechanical and allow the strategy to do the heavy lifting. Our total returns now sit at all-time highs of 124.9%. We introduced the portfolio in June 2022 and continue to be impressed by the resilient and consistent nature of the income wheel strategy during all market environments.
January offered us another good month as we brought in over 12% worth of premium. Let’s continue to keep it simple, stay mechanical and allow the strategy to do the heavy lifting. Our total returns now sit at all-time highs of 124.9%. We introduced the portfolio in June 2022 and continue to be impressed by the resilient and consistent nature of the income wheel strategy during all market environments.
The auto insurance market has been in a deep freeze since the middle of 2021. But now it’s thawing ... maybe even shifting into growth mode. That means huge potential for companies with direct access to the market.
That’s where today’s idea comes in. It’s a micro-cap internet company that offers unfiltered exposure to the auto, home and renters’ insurance markets.
All the details are inside the February Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
That’s where today’s idea comes in. It’s a micro-cap internet company that offers unfiltered exposure to the auto, home and renters’ insurance markets.
All the details are inside the February Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled it is open to cutting later this year, especially if economic growth and employment slow in an election year. Big tech earnings so far are a mixed bag and below elevated expectations.
But cybersecurity companies have been resilient due to ever-growing demand. And today, we add a familiar cybersecurity name to the Explorer portfolio.
But cybersecurity companies have been resilient due to ever-growing demand. And today, we add a familiar cybersecurity name to the Explorer portfolio.
Updates
The big news of the week is, of course, rising risks in the financial system following the failures of several smaller regional banks in the U.S. as well as instability in some larger institutions abroad, mainly Credit Suisse (CS). We also received February inflation data in the form of CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday), which continue to show that inflation is moderating but isn’t collapsing. The February PPI report showed a 0.1% decline versus estimates for a 0.3% increase.
This was a week to remember. The Explorer does not have any financial stocks, thankfully, though a couple of our small-cap ideas did not have a good week. Federal deposit insurance was introduced 90 years ago during the Great Depression. Ever since then, small depositors within the FDIC limit of coverage have escaped the fear of a bank failure.
Cabot Options Institute Income Trader is focused exclusively on the creating consistent income through a variety of options selling strategies. Whether you have questions about selling puts, covered strangles, jade lizards or our income wheel approach, Andy is more than happy to help you steepen your learning curve in this live event.
WHAT TO DO NOW: After cracking on an intermediate-term basis last week, the market has been unable to find its footing this week despite some steps to secure the banking system. It’s not 2008 out there, and in fact, many growth stocks we own and are watching are still holding up well, but there’s no doubt the selling pressures out there are intense and haven’t let up. Tonight, we’re going to sell one-third of what’s left of our ProShares S&P Fund (SSO) position and our half position in Las Vegas Sands (LVS), which will leave us a cash position of around 66%.
After moving higher in January, stocks fell back again in February. After falling last week, stocks are sharply higher this week. Why can’t the market seem to make up its mind?
The main catalyst for the market so far this year is the perception of the inflation/Fed situation. When investors sense inflation falling and the Fed is almost done hiking rates, stocks rally. When they believe inflation is remaining sticky and the Fed will have to remain aggressive for a lot longer, stocks fall. This dynamic has been on full display in the last few trading days.
The main catalyst for the market so far this year is the perception of the inflation/Fed situation. When investors sense inflation falling and the Fed is almost done hiking rates, stocks rally. When they believe inflation is remaining sticky and the Fed will have to remain aggressive for a lot longer, stocks fall. This dynamic has been on full display in the last few trading days.
For my introduction this week, it feels like I can’t write about anything other than Silicon Valley Bank. What a stunning collapse! And before I get into my thoughts, I wanted to plug using Twitter.
Last night at Hollywood’s Academy Awards, the movie “Everything Everywhere All at Once” won the award for best picture, long considered the top prize of the event. It also won six other coveted Oscars. The movie, ostensibly, is a science fiction film about alternative realities and an everyday laundromat owner.
For investors, the movie is immediately elevated to mandatory viewing – the title applies directly to what is going on in “this here” in “this now” in today’s capital markets.
For investors, the movie is immediately elevated to mandatory viewing – the title applies directly to what is going on in “this here” in “this now” in today’s capital markets.
We were rolling along in a choppy market to nowhere as the sticky inflation/hawkish Fed conundrum promised to play out for longer than hoped at the beginning of the year. But over the past several days a Black Swan event popped up, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
This week, we comment on earnings from ESAB (ESAB), Duluth Holdings (DLTH) and preliminary results from Volkswagen AG (VWAGY). Next week, Volkswagen reports its full results – we’ll include more comments as needed. That should wrap up this earnings season. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is an off-cycle company and reports on March 28.
The big events so far this week have been Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee (Tuesday) and the House Financial Services panel (Wednesday). He sounded more hawkish than he did during his February 1 press conference.
Here are the latest developments in the cannabis sector over the past two weeks.
The bottom line: States continue to march forward with legalization, but the negative trends of price compression and higher financing costs weigh on weaker players. That will create acquisition opportunities for the stronger companies in the space.
The bottom line: States continue to march forward with legalization, but the negative trends of price compression and higher financing costs weigh on weaker players. That will create acquisition opportunities for the stronger companies in the space.
Alerts
I’m going to lock in some nice profits today and as a result, our win ratio is now 18 out of 19 winning trades since starting the service back in June. I’ll also be adding a few new trades to the mix over the next day or two, so be on the lookout for an opening trade alert.
We’ve only held Treace Medical (TMCI) for about a month, but it’s been a wild ride.
Today SWAV has dipped below support near 235, triggering my mental stop-loss level.
I’m going to lock in some nice profits today and as a result, our win ratio is now 18 out of 19 winning trades since starting the service back in June. I’ll also be adding a few new trades to the mix over the next day or two, so be on the lookout for an opening trade alert.
The market got off to an ugly start to the week yesterday, though really not much has changed—the Tides are positive, but not much else is, while individual growth stocks remain hit or miss.
Snowflake (SNOW) reported late last week that Q3 revenue rose 67% to $557 million (beating by $18.1 million) while adjusted diluted EPS of $0.11 beat by $0.06.
Cannabis stocks are screaming higher this morning. Our AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) ETF is up over 8%. Three of our portfolio names are up even more, 9% to 15%.
The Fed-induced rally yesterday has left a few of our positions with deltas that are shorter than we prefer. As a result, I want to buy back our short calls in those positions and sell more premium going out to a higher strike and further out in duration.
Okay, it’s time to ramp things back up again. I want to sell premium for the January expiration cycle and I’m going to start with a bear call spread and hopefully, over the next few trading days, add an iron condor and bull put spread in a few other of the major index ETFs.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.