Fortunately, the start of earnings season started off on the right foot. On Thursday, we placed our first trade of the season in JPMorgan Chase (JPM), our standard, outside-of-the-expected-move, iron condor. On Friday, JPM opened up slightly, well within our chosen range and as a result, all uncertainty around the announcement diminished, volatility was immediately crushed, and we were given the opportunity to take off the trade for a profit. Shortly after the opening bell we locked in a quick one-day gain of 8.0%.

The market continues to rally and the All-Weather portfolio is now up 10.2%, with the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and SPDR GLD Shares ETF (GLD) doing the heavy lifting, up 26.0% and 8.6%, respectively.

Nothing has changed from last month, both bond funds (TLT and IEF) and the commodity fund (DBC) continue to lag behind, but that is the yin-yang protective nature of the All-Weather portfolio just doing its job.

The market surged higher yet again last week, and traders are beginning to wonder if a run at new highs is in the cards in 2023. While there is a way to go until we reach those peaks, last week’s gains of 2.4% for the S&P 500, 2.3% for the Dow, and 3.32% for the Nasdaq gives the bulls hope.

The market surged higher yet again last week, and traders are beginning to wonder if a run at new highs is in the cards in 2023. While there is a way to go until we reach those peaks, last week’s gains of 2.4% for the S&P 500, 2.3% for the Dow, and 3.32% for the Nasdaq gives the bulls hope.

There’s not much to say: The market and leading stocks continue to act in a textbook fashion, with not just more up than down but tame pullbacks that respect logical support and big volume on the advances--all signs that big investors are accumulating stock. We still want to be selective on new buys, and we’re sure earnings season will throw everyone a few curveballs, but we continue to put money to work--today we’re adding a few more shares to one of our positions and adding a full-sized stake in a new name.

Elsewhere tonight, we write about another bullish long-term market indicator, what the recent action in interest rates mean, and go over many leading and potential leading stocks that are enjoying the market’s newfound uptrend.

Inflation cooled last month to its slowest pace in more than two years, buoying markets even though the Fed may raise interest rates later this month.

While the Nasdaq composite is a basket of more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, the Nasdaq 100 is the basis for the QQQ – the second-most heavily traded ETF in America, after the SPY ETF which tracks the S&P 500.

The markets traded sideways through most of April. But since then, the choppiness has returned—along with worries about the uncertainty regarding the debt ceiling, the expiration of the immigration-limiting legislation, and ongoing debate about the possibility of a recession.

Yet, economically speaking, the trends are still healthy. Manufacturing has held up, employment continues to rise, and job openings are still underutilized (as you can tell if you’ve been in a restaurant lately!).

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a game-changer that will usher in the next wave of technological advancement that will have a dramatic positive impact on certain stock prices for years to come.

The phenomenon got a huge shot of adrenaline when Nvidia (NVDA) blew away earnings estimates, citing greater demand for AI technology far sooner than expected. It’s like the opening gun has sounded for the new craze.

The efficiency and cost-saving potential for businesses are massive. Companies can’t afford to fall behind. For many businesses, rapid AI adaptation is a matter of survival. There is a stampede to apply cutting-edge AI technology to businesses before the competition. Companies that provide AI-enabling products and services will benefit mightily for years to come.

In this issue, I highlight the great income stock of a company that will surely benefit from the race to adopt AI. The price is still very reasonable, and it pays a high dividend yield. There is a window of opportunity after the first wave of price surges levels off before the longer-term price appreciation sets in.

Today, I’m recommending an aerospace company that is poised to double revenue over the next 3 years.

Key points:

· Earnings to triple over the next three years.

· Cheap valuation. Good dividend yield and share buyback program.

· High insider ownership.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.

This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.

After a heady run, further short-term wobbles are possible, even likely, as the market and many stocks digest their May/June gains and as fear levels rise with interest rates. That said, to this point the consolidation in the major indexes and leading stocks has been completely acceptable, with very little abnormal action. If we start to see some names crack meaningful support, we’ll knock our Market Monitor down a notch or two, but today we’ll keep it at a level 8, as the odds continue to favor this being a normal rest period that will give way to higher prices.

This week’s list has a handful of names that have recently got going despite the market’s shenanigans. Our Top Pick this week is from a beaten-down group that’s come to life, possibly signaling the start of a group move.

Volatility has resurfaced and stocks have pulled back a bit of late, though it’s still very much a bull market. We’ll see whether this week’s CPI print (Wednesday) and kickoff to second-quarter earnings season (Friday) reverses or accelerates the recent mini-selloff. In the meantime, we’re going outside the box this week to add more exposure to the improving cannabis sector in the form of a leveraged fund. It’s been a favorite of Cabot Cannabis Investor Chief Analyst Michael Brush in recent weeks, and with Congress back in session today, the timing could be perfect.

There are a lot of high-quality stocks trading at value prices out there. For next week’s recommendation, I’m looking at semiconductor companies worldwide and will try to pick the stock with the most upside and lowest downside risk. This is as Congress wrangles over the $52 billion CHIPS act to support the domestic semiconductor supply chain.

It remains a very weak market, and there are plenty of reasons to remain skeptical of near-term improvement. We’re still under the moving averages and the bearish trendline from November’s peak. Greentech and the broader technology sector (the Nasdaq 100) are both sitting just over areas of technical support that would probably signal a fresh round of sharp sell-offs if breached. For Greentech, a 10% drop here would test the pre-pandemic, nine-year high.

Although it’s already a bear market, there is a good chance that stocks fall to new lows before the market recovers.

The broader S&P 500 hit a low in mid-June on recession fears resulting from persistent high inflation and the Fed’s aggressive actions to tame it. The market has since bounced off the lows, but the issues that drove the market to those lows haven’t really improved.

As a practitioner in the investing world, I find theoretical debates to be sometimes interesting but usually not highly applicable to my work. This mirrors a favorite saying of mine, attributable to Albert Einstein: “In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not.”

Based on resilient price action and cumulative strong earnings reports, we are purchasing another 2.5% stake in Okta, Inc (OTKA). Increasing our total position to 5% of the equity portfolio. We will continue to build a position in this name. From a technical perspective, we look for tradable stocks that are building a strong base, forming a cup and handle pattern. Furthermore, in my experience, stocks and cryptocurrencies breaking above their 21-day moving averages on volume can run.

With earnings season starting next week, few if any companies had much to say this past week. We had no companies reporting earnings this past week and only one provided news of any note.

So, we delve briefly into cryptocurrencies and more deeply into the fascinating financial, strategic and governance train wreck that is Wayfair (W).



Next Friday, Wells Fargo (WFC) reports earnings, and Mattel (MAT) and Nokia (NOK) report the following week. Then, the earnings deluge starts with 13 companies reporting during the week of July 24th.

The indexes had a good day, with growth stocks and the broad market doing even better. When the closing bell rang, the Dow was up 347 points while the Nasdaq was up 259 points.

The market has moved off the lows of last month. But stocks really aren’t going anywhere.
The problem is recession. An increasing number of economists are calling for a recession in the next year as the Fed aggressively raises rates and pulls back stimulus in an effort to tame this high and persistent inflation. Stocks are already at least partially pricing in a recession that may not even happen.

The first half results are in. The S&P 500 has had the worst first half since 1970. Not good.
All year long the market has grappled with the strong possibility that the Fed will have to induce a recession in order to tame the high and persistent inflation. There had been hope that a recession might be avoided. But recent evidence is indicating the recession scenario.

In the past 30 days, five analysts have boosted their EPS forecasts for this skilled nursing facility owner.

As you are aware from the prior issue and the last update, the Undiscovered Portfolio is tactical in nature, meaning that we’ll be buying and selling funds on a fairly regular basis, as market conditions change.

Our new recommendation is a bus/heavy duty truck transmission company that has a current annual dividend yield of 1.95%, paid quarterly. We are also selling three previous ideas.

This insurance company beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.49 last quarter, and six analysts have recently boosted their EPS forecasts for the company.

Inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rising rates are pushing up commodity stocks this this miner.

The top five holdings in this ETF are: Invesco Shrt-Trm Inv Gov&Agcy Instl (AGPXX, 24.11% of net assets); Coffee C Future Sept 21 (KCU21, 7.43%); Corn Sept21 (CU1, 6.82%); Sugar No. 11 Futures Sept21 (SBV1, 6.71%); and Soybean Nov21 (SX1, 6.66%).

Today we are raising our price target on Arcos Dorados (ARCO) from 7.50 to 8.50. The company is recovering from the pandemic and looks well-positioned to expand its franchise and profits while continuing to improve its balance sheet. The shares remain undervalued.

Sprout Social (SPT) reported a terrific Q4 yesterday and offered above-consensus guidance for 2022. Despite the good results and outlook, we’re going to sell another one-quarter position to take our stake down to one half today. The bottom line is it continues to be a challenging environment for pure growth stocks, and we need to continue to adapt to the times.

This asset management company earned $0.58 per share last quarter, handily beating analysts’ estimates of $0.49. The shares have a current annual dividend yield of 7.87%, paid quarterly.

Today, the Undiscovered Portfolio sold three ETFs for the following reasons.

Cloudflare (NET) reported Q4 results yesterday that surpassed expectations. Revenue was up 54% to $193.6 million while adjusted EPS came in at $0.01. As compared to some other software stocks that have beat expectations, Cloudflare reinvested the surplus cash in growth initiatives, so it didn’t flow to the bottom line.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.