Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the November 2023 issue.

Much of the art of finding interesting turnaround stocks is looking at catalysts, tracking management changes and searching through lists of out-of-favor companies. Sometimes, however, good ideas can be found closer to home – literally – by looking through the roster of public companies in one’s home state. We discuss five turnarounds underway in our home state of Massachusetts.

Despite near-record gold prices, shares of gold producers remain depressed. We discuss two attractive companies. Our Buy recommendation this month is Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM), a premier gold mining company selling at a discounted price.

Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This investment letter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.

Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.

This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.

The market has been choppy and unpredictable. Optimism about a “soft landing” is being tempered by rising interest rates. Either the strong economy or high interest rates will dominate the market in the months ahead. We’ll see.

But what seems to be quite clear is that the economy is solid for now. Third-quarter GDP is expected to be over 5%. Even if the economy does slow, it will likely take several quarters to slow from here. That means gasoline demand should remain solid. And that should be good news for refiners.

In this issue I highlight one of the best performing large company stocks in the energy sector over the last several years. It is also one of the few plays out there that still has solid momentum, as the stock remains in an uptrend that began three years ago.

Good momentum means high call premiums as more investors are willing to be on higher prices in the future. The refiner stock highlighted in this issue has a great chance of providing the opportunity to sell covered calls in the near future. It should help generate a high income in this uncertain environment.

The market has continued to unravel, and there’s no need to review all the gory details from the prior few days—suffice it to say that the trend of interest rates remains up and the trend of most indexes, stocks and sectors remains down. It’s also true that emotions are starting to run high, with a few signs of panic out there as investors throw most everything overboard, bringing lots of stuff down to key levels. Because of that, we remain on the lookout for some sort of market turn, but until then, we advise holding plenty of cash and keeping any new positions on the small side as we wait for the sellers to run out of ammo. We’ll respect the latest leg lower and drop our Market Monitor to a level 4.

This week’s list is a great place to start building your watch list if you haven’t already, with many names that are clearly resisting the market’s pull. Our Top Pick is a tech name that looks to have the right mix of steady growth, big earnings expansion and huge AI potential—as well as a resilient stock.

The market is in a tough place right now, closing last week at new post-summer lows. At some point – perhaps sooner than we expect – the next rally will arrive. And there are a lot of indicators (overly bearish investor sentiment, a history of October bottoms, etc.) that suggest the next big move is up. But we have to see it to believe it. So, for now, we’ll maintain a relatively cautious stance, trimming an underperforming position today and downgrading another to Hold.

And yet, there are enough glimmers of hope out there (remember: it’s still technically a new bull market!) that today we’re adding a mid-cap software company with tons of growth potential, recently recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities.

Details inside.

As October expiration moves into our rearview mirror, our total returns sit at an all-time high of 165.8%. For the expiration cycle we were able to lock in two iron condors (SPY and IWM) for a total return of 19.8%.

We allowed our three remaining October 20, 2023, positions to expire.

Our DraftKings (DKNG) puts closed in-the-money and as I discussed last week on our subscriber-only call, I plan to sell calls against our newly issued shares in DKNG on Monday.

Both our Wells Fargo (WFC) and Pfizer (PFE) call positions expired worthless, so we locked in all of the premium and we needed it to offset some of the losses in both stocks. I plan to sell more calls against both positions on Monday.

The first full week of earnings season arrived last week and we decided to place our second trade of the season in American Express (AXP) by using a 20-point range, with our short strikes at 140 (puts)and 160 (calls). We felt comfortable with the range as it was not only well outside of the expected range (144 – 156) for AXP, but covered, on a percentage basis, almost every earnings move going back to October 2006. These are the type of setups we prefer to trade.

The historic move in the bond market continued to weigh on stocks last week as the S&P 500 lost 2.4%, the Dow fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq declined by 3.1%.

The historic move in the bond market continued to weigh on stocks last week as the S&P 500 lost 2.4%, the Dow fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq declined by 3.1%.

The market remains under pressure as interest rates rise, which keeps us in a cautious stance -- we’re holding nearly as much cash as we have during the past two years as few stocks are able to sustain any upside. That said, we actually think the market has a solid setup here--there are a decent number of names forming normal launching pads, sentiment is awful and earnings season could be a catalyst. The bulls still have a lot to prove, but we’re remaining flexible should the buyers appear.


Tonight’s issue reviews our remaining names and market outlook in more detail, talks about some big-picture positives to keep in mind, as well as some things we want to see as a sign the buyers are taking control. More watchful waiting is needed, but we’re keeping our watch list up to date should the market’s character change.

I’m in Amish country this week so the Cabot Explorer issue will be briefer than usual today. Markets are facing a 5% dilemma. The benchmark Treasury yield closed just above 4.9%, a fresh 16-year high.

Third-quarter GDP estimated growth may be above 5%, signaling that inflationary expectations are still strong.

The market will likely turn broadly positive when expectations are that interest rate hikes are over – and lower rates may be around the corner.

As I think about where we are in the economic cycle, I think financials should be relatively well positioned.

The awful financial market conditions continue to deteriorate. As everyone knows, the domestic stock market ticked below its midsummer low and is now down over 23% from its November 2021 peak. Stock prices in developed country markets have fallen in local terms just as much if not more that the major U.S. stock indices. Emerging market returns (in local terms) have slid 21% YTD. With the awe-inspiring gains in the U.S. dollar, up 19% YTD, global stock returns for American investors have been downright dismal.

To kick things off to better understand the world today, I want to start with recent comments by John Paulson. John made his fortune shorting subprime mortgages during the 2008 housing bubble.

Here we highlight comments on gold because it is one of the world’s most traded and highly sought-after commodities. Gold does share traits with Bitcoin, and BTC should trade similarly to gold over the next 10 years.

The stock market continues its downward slide as investors started to fully appreciate the pace and scale of rate hikes by central banks around the world. Still, several of our companies provided noteworthy updates, noted below and in our podcast.

Well, the market got exactly what it expected yesterday when the Fed hiked by 75bps (the odds were over 80% that’s what they’d do). Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging was consistent with what he said back in August in Jackson Hole.

FedEx (FDX) reports earnings later today and all will be watching as its shares tumbled last week after it issued a sales warning. The Federal Reserve issued its fifth interest rate hike of 2022, and it certainly won’t be the last one, warned dove-turned-hawk Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. This brisk run-up in rates, which should have been earlier and faster, is hitting growth stocks hard since those are mostly high revenue growth companies that are not yet profitable. The market is punishing this group to levels that tempt longer-term investors.

It’s all about the Fed today. The woefully behind-the-curve Central Bank will announce another Fed Funds rate hike today. The increase is widely expected to be another 0.75%. But some worry it could be 1.00%.

The market’s hopes were dashed when August inflation was worse than expected. That means the Fed will have to continue to be hawkish and for a while longer. Plus, after four rate hikes so far, two straight quarters of GDP contraction, and a bear market; inflation isn’t budging yet.

The market has turned decidedly negative after last week’s worse-than-expected inflation report. This week, all eyes are on the Fed.

The Fed is widely expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds by 0.75% for the third straight time. But some Wall Street types are worried that it could be a 1.00% hike. In the grand scheme of things that’s not a big difference. But Wall Street suffers from short-sightedness. And not the kind that can be corrected with glasses.

Central banks around the world are boosting interest rates at a pace faster than perhaps any other time in living memory. Since mid-March, only six months ago, the U.S. Fed Funds rate has surged from essentially zero to about 2.35% and will be at 3.0% by the end of this week.

Given the volatility of September, I want to revisit my “bear market” analysis.

One of the most aggressive Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycles ever is weighing heavily on gold, with another rate increase expected this week. On top of that, continued strength in the dollar index and rising yields in longer-term Treasuries (a major competitor for gold) are causing bullion investors to run for the exits.

While the market’s fireworks around the CPI data overshadowed most everything else this week, a few of our companies provided noteworthy updates, noted below and in our podcast.

Welcome everyone!

It’s a pleasure to have you all on board.



I hope all of you had the opportunity to read through the User Guide and the various reports on your subscriber page. If you haven’t, please do so at your leisure so you have a decent understanding of our approach and the strategies we use…and more importantly, how I approach risk management.

It’s a pleasure to have you all on board.

I hope all of you had the opportunity to read through the User Guide and the various reports on your subscriber page. If you haven’t, please take the time to read through them at your leisure so you have a decent understanding of our approach and the strategies we use … and more importantly how I approach risk management.

I originally recommended buying BBX Capital (BBXIA) in October 2020 at a price of 3.17, shortly after its spin-off from Bluegreen Vacation Holdings (BVH).

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) is now up 11% from our initial entry point as of Friday, which means it’s time to take some profit off the table per the rules of our trading discipline.

The market has been a mess for the past several months, as countless stocks have completely fallen apart. It’s been UGLY.

Kronos Worldwide (KRO) is now up 18% from our initial entry point as of Thursday, which means it’s time to take some profit off the table per the rules of our trading discipline.

Bitcoin is rallying today up 4.61% when compared to the broader market which is flat. The Nasdaq is up slightly, with small caps leading today’s modest rally.

We are moving shares of Altria (MO) from Buy to Sell. While the shares remain 21% below our $66 price target, the risk/return trade-off has become unfavorable.

We’ve held on to a small stake in Endava (DAVA) hoping the market would turn around before our gain dwindled too much.

CS Disco (LAW) reported Q1 numbers that surpassed expectations. Revenue rose 63.5% to $34.5 million (beating by $3.8 million), while adjusted EPS of -$0.15 beat by $0.06.

Today we are adding Arista Networks (ANET) to our Watchlist.

There’s no doubt about it: this market stinks.


Every major index has been hitting new lows, the news is terrible (raging inflation and soaring interest rates), and investors have grown increasingly fearful, as the profits of 2021 have quickly evaporated in the bear market of 2022.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.