We’ve been around a while, but this is one of the most unusual environments we’ve seen, with today’s major rotational action another example of a pickup in volatility while few names are really making much sustained progress. Taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, we’ve pared back some in recent weeks, yet because most of the names we’ve been targeting for buying are just sitting there, has led to an increasing cash position--now up to 41% after a partial sale of Cava Group earlier this week.

The good news is that the mostly sideways action from much of the market has led to many setups heading into earnings season, which results in a straightforward game plan -- we’re holding our cash tonight, but we’re aiming to grab some fresh breakouts if they occur.

The holiday-shortened week was mostly quiet outside of the AI/Semiconductors plays, which once again rose nicely. As for the rest of the market, by the numbers below it was a good week, though under the surface it feels like not many stocks are truly rallying.



For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.35%, the Dow rose marginally, and the Nasdaq added another 2.9%.

The holiday-shortened week was mostly quiet outside of the AI/Semiconductors plays, which once again rose nicely. As for the rest of the market, by the numbers below it was a good week, though under the surface it feels like not many stocks are truly rallying.


For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.35%, the Dow rose marginally, and the Nasdaq added another 2.9%.

Clean energy is the future. But not for a while.

This country and the world still rely heavily on fossil fuels for more than 80% of energy needs, and these conventional energy sources will likely remain dominant for decades. Meanwhile, many stocks of companies that benefit have strong earnings and great value.

Fossil fuel proportions are expected to move toward natural gas in the years ahead. A recent study estimates that global natural gas demand will soar 34% between 2022 and 2050 with the strongest growth in the natural gas realm to be liquid natural gas (LNG), with demand expected to more than double in the same time frame.

In this issue, I highlight one of the best natural gas companies on the market. It is a newly formed company in the business of exporting abundant and cheap American natural gas overseas. It’s big business. In a short time, this company has become one of the world’s largest natural gas exporters.

Stocks began the second half of 2024 exactly the way they behaved for much of the first half: at all-time highs, but with only a couple handfuls of mega-cap tech stocks and artificial intelligence plays doing most of the heavy lifting. It remains both a bull market and a stock picker’s market, so today we pick a stock that’s been attracting a lot of institutional attention of late. It’s a tech stock, but it’s no mega-cap; it’s a small-cap, space-related title that Tyler Laundon recommended to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience last month. Its shares have exactly doubled this year and yet still trade 40% below their 2021 highs.

Details inside.

The holiday-shortened week was mostly quiet outside of the AI/Semiconductors plays, which once again rose nicely. As for the rest of the market, by the numbers below it was a good week, though under the surface it feels like not many stocks are truly rallying.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.35%, the Dow rose marginally, and the Nasdaq added another 2.9%.

Two of the past three weeks have had odd mid-week holidays, which combined with the time of year, has led to some pretty slow trading since the tail end of June. We’re now seeing more tightness and legitimate setups out there, so if the buying pressures spread we think there could be a surprising number of names that provide solid entry points. While there are some signs that could be starting, earnings season is set to ramp, and as always, that will likely tell the intermediate-term story. For now, given that the market’s decent-but-tricky evidence hasn’t changed much, our advice isn’t changing, either. Our Market Monitor remains at a level 7.

This week’s list has another batch of intriguing setups that could go if the market cooperates. Our Top Pick has always had a good story and great numbers, and now the stock seems to be ready to move as its sector comes back to life.

Consumer cyclicals, perhaps more than any other sector, are at the nexus of what we look for in Cabot Value Investor these days: solid growth, but at value prices. And today we add a high-profile stock from one of the most resilient subsectors of an otherwise sluggish retail space. Its shares were overly beaten down in the weeks since underwhelming May retail sales prompted a flash mini-selloff in all things retail. But this remarkably reliable, steady-as-she-goes growth company didn’t deserve it, and shares are now trading at a rare discount.

Details inside.

In 2022 new management took the helm of a small, deli-focused food company that was underperforming its potential. Fast forward a couple of years and management is executing an ambitious growth plan, while consumers are flocking to the deli section like never before.

This month’s Issue tells the story of a micro-cap company that’s hitting its stride a century after the woman it’s named after completed the journey from Italy to Brooklyn, NY.

Before we dive into this week’s idea, we do need to move on from our Oscar Health (OSCR) position that broke below our stop. While it’s possible the stock will rebound in the days/weeks to come (especially as the stock decline may be tied to politics), we need to respect the stop and exit our covered call.

If you’ve been with us for a while you might remember that we frequently write that January can be a tricky month, since, as the calendar flips, tax-related moves (profit taking) can occur and big investors will often reposition their portfolios, creating lots of crosscurrents. July is not the same thing, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see some repositioning and volatile action in the days ahead given how many investors are rowing in different directions already. Our point: Don’t fight the evidence, which continues to tell us things remain choppy and narrow, but also stay flexible in case the market flashes some change in character. Right now, we’ll once again leave our Market Monitor at a level 7, taking things on a stock-by-stock basis.

This week’s list has a ton of setups, with many stocks rounding out launching pads that could get going if all goes well. Our Top Pick is part of a strengthening sector, has terrific growth numbers and is under strong accumulation. Try to start a position on dips, with the idea of adding more of a decisive breakout.

Wall Street has decided that interest rates have peaked. And the market loves it. The S&P 500 is up 8.4% so far this month and has made up most of the decline of the prior three months.

A quick reminder that Cabot will be closed tomorrow and Friday for Thanksgiving. I hope you have a great holiday and enjoy a break from the market.

Most stocks produce lackluster returns. A recent study¹ by Hendrick Bessembinder, a professor at Arizona State University’s WP Carey School of Business, looked at U.S. stock market returns from 1926 to 2022. Nearly 60% of all stocks detracted from shareholder value during this time period. From 1926 to 2016, half of the total wealth created in the stock market was produced by only 90 stocks. By 2022, the number was only 72 stocks.

This week’s note includes our comments on earnings from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Macy’s (M), Tyson Foods (TSN) and Vodafone (VOD). The earnings season is winding down, with Kohl’s (KSS) reporting next Tuesday (Nov. 21) and Duluth Holdings (DLTH) reporting on November 30.

Cabot Options Institute Quant Trader is focused exclusively on creating consistent returns using high-probability options strategies including bear call spreads, bull put spreads, iron condors and more. Whether you have questions about the strategies, or even about setting up your account, or how to make your own trades, Andy will answer all of your questions

There have been a lot of interesting developments in the market over the past week, with the lower-than-expected inflation reading and resulting speculation over the Fed’s next move right near the top of the list.

As it stands now, the market is saying no more Fed rate hikes, and even that we’ll see two cuts by next July.

Frankly, that seems a bit aggressive.

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The November rally is alive and well. After the market soared to the highest weekly returns of the year in the first week of the month, the rally sputtered last week. But it has come alive again after a good inflation report.

Last week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority hosted hundreds of bankers including the heads of 90 global financial institutions to discuss the current status and future outlook for the world’s capital markets. Despite the increasingly tight grip that China has on Hong Kong, which is leading to a diminished relevance for the island state, notables including Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman and Goldman Sachs head David Solomon participated in the in-person meetings. The draw: Hong Kong remains an important gatekeeper for access to mainland China’s financial markets.

This has been a very positive month so far in the market. Will the rally continue?

After three straight down months for the S&P 500 where the index dipped into correction territory (down 10% from the high), the index has turned around and is up over 5% so far in November. The catalyst is the perception that interest rates have peaked.

We allowed our TXN calls to expire worthless last week to lock in a full profit on our premium sold. Now, with expiration behind us, it’s time to start selling more premium in TXN.

As part of the Income Wheel approach, we allowed our Wells Fargo (WFC) puts to expire in the money at expiration last week. As a result, we were issued shares at our chosen put strike of 45. So far, we’ve managed to lock in 18% worth of premium in WFC.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

DKNG continues to trend higher, so we are going to buy back our September puts, lock in profits and immediately sell more puts for the October expiration cycle.

The Yale Endowment portfolio continues to shine, outperforming our benchmarks with portfolio gains currently reaching close to 15% since we initiated the portfolio back in mid-June of last year.

I’ve decided to lock in profits on my October 20, 2023, SPY iron condor. With 37 days left until our iron condor is due to expire, I want to eliminate all risk and simply lock in some profits. This brings our total returns in Quant Trader to just under 160% since introducing the service 16 months ago.

The Yale Endowment portfolio continues to shine, outperforming our benchmarks with portfolio gains currently reaching close to 15% since we initiated the portfolio back in mid-June of last year.

With the September 15, 2023, expiration cycle coming to a close in three days, it’s time to start buying back the rest of our September 15, 2023, and September 22, 2023, short calls and selling more premium going out 30 to 60 days. I’ll be sending out numerous trade alerts for the various portfolios over the next few days, including the potential for a few more new trades in our active portfolios.

Braze (BRZE) delivered Q2 results after the close yesterday that beat expectations. Revenue grew 33.6% to $115.1 million, beating by $6.4 million while EPS of -$0.04 was up from -$0.16 in Q2 last year and beat by $0.10.

Intapp (INTA) delivered Q4 results after the close yesterday that beat expectations. Revenue grew 25.3% to $94.6 million, beating by $1.5 million while EPS of $0.04 was up from -$0.04 in Q4 last year and beat by $0.03.

All right, it’s time to start selling some more premium.

We currently have one open position (currently profitable), an iron condor in SPY, and I want to add another iron condor today, this time in the Russell 2000 (IWM).

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.