Cabot Stock of the Week Issue: August 26, 2024

*Note: Due to the Labor Day holiday next Monday, you will receive your next Cabot Stock of the Week issue on Tuesday, September 3.

Stocks have finally settled into the late-August doldrums that normally occur in the last couple weeks before Labor Day. Volatility – after the VIX spiked as high as 66 earlier in the month – has fallen back to normal levels in the 16 range. Second-quarter earnings season is essentially over. The only event that truly moved the needle last week was Jerome Powell’s “the time has come” to cut interest rates comment, which triggered a lot of buying on Friday. But that was a one-day thing, as the market was already all but certain that the Fed would start cutting rates next month.

Next Tuesday is when the real fun begins. September and October are traditionally the worst two months on the investment calendar, and that’s especially true in an election year, when stocks typically fall in the two months leading up to the early-November vote. This year could be different, however, given that the Fed will finally morph from foe to friend for the first time in three and a half years when it finally starts to cut rates next month. That won’t happen until September 18, however. Until then, I’d expect some turbulence, as hedge funder types usually start selling off their weakest positions the second they return from their vacation houses in the Hamptons right after Labor Day.

Knowing that, today we venture outside U.S. borders to a big-name stock that has become so ignored in recent years that it’s now woefully undervalued. Clif Droke, new Chief Analyst of our Cabot Turnaround Letter, just recommended the mega-cap tech stock to his readers last week. Today, we add it to our Stock of the Week portfolio.

I’ll let him tell you about it.

Alibaba (BABA)

Chinese ADRs are recovering from broad selling pressures across China’s equity market earlier this year. But as the dust has settled from the sell-off, a growing number of U.S.-listed China stocks look particularly attractive and have already established early-stage turnarounds. A prominent example of this is the online retail juggernaut, Alibaba Group Holding (BABA).

Known as the “Chinese Amazon,” Alibaba is one of the world’s largest e-commerce companies, providing millions of customers with multiple services including online retail, cloud computing, digital media and entertainment.

Alibaba generates most of its revenue from multiple e-commerce businesses—including Taobao (one of China’s largest online shopping platforms), Tmall, AliExpress, and Kaola (a cross-border e-commerce platform), as well as from brick-and-mortar stores and a stake in Cainiao Logistics (which coordinates Alibaba’s deliveries across its e-commerce ecosystem).

Alibaba also has a booming cloud business, which saw AI-related product revenue post triple-digit growth year over year during fiscal Q1 (ended June), while continuing to increase its share of public cloud revenue. As an aside, Alibaba Cloud served as a major cloud service provider for the recent Olympic Games, providing cloud computing and AI services to Olympic broadcasting services.

Although Alibaba is an e-commerce leader in China, it’s relatively unknown to casual shoppers in the United States and Europe. And on that front, the company is actively trying to expand its footprint internationally, especially through its retail platform AliExpress, which sells directly to consumers worldwide. Meanwhile, its cloud computing arm, Alibaba Cloud, has been growing its data centers and services outside of China, particularly in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North America.

Then there’s Alibaba’s financial arm, Ant Group, which has been rapidly increasing its digital payment services internationally through partnerships and acquisitions, while its digital wallet, Alipay, is being introduced in several new foreign markets. (As an aside, I think Alibaba’s concerted push toward international expansion in its various businesses is an integral part of the turnaround story here.)

In terms of the key financial metrics, revenue in fiscal Q1 (ended June), which was released earlier this month, increased 4% year-on-year to $33 billion, with earnings of $2.29 a share beating estimates by 10%. Both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin also showed improvement from the year-ago quarter.

It should also be noted that Alibaba’s free cash flow dropped in Q1, and the company attributed this decline to a “significant increase in expenditure on the AI infrastructure investments.” Encouragingly, however, management expressed confidence that it would return to double-digit growth in the second half of the fiscal year, with gradual acceleration thereafter as it begins to execute on its integrated cloud and AI development strategy. (Indeed, the free cash flow strength is a big part of the overall turnaround story.)

More recently, a major Wall Street bank just released a list of the 50 stocks that most frequently appear among the top 10 holdings of “fundamentally-driven investors from quantitative funds or funds that mirror private equity investments,” which is another potentially bullish factor going forward as the stock enjoys strong institutional ownership.

Admittedly, however, our position in Alibaba is not without above-average risk due to the weak economic backdrop for China. What’s more, there is an additional risk in owning China ADRs due to the relatively lower level of transparency in many Chinese companies (versus their American counterparts). For these reasons, I suggest keeping this stock on a tighter leash than would normally be the case with non-China portfolio holdings.

That said, I view the outlook as favorable for BABA in the coming months as increasing expectations for a falling interest rate environment will not only encourage higher consumer spending levels (which have been repressed by inflation) but is already prompting institutional investors to turn their attention toward retail stocks with heavy digital exposure. And on that score, Alibaba is starting to grab the attention of this market-moving cohort. BUY

Current Recommendations

Changes Since Last Week:
Neo Performance Materials (NOPMF) Moves from Hold to Buy
U.S. Steel (X) Moves from Buy to Sell

We have one sell and one upgrade today, as U.S. Steel’s potential blockbuster deal with Nippon Steel may no longer be a sure thing, spooking investors. Contrarily, Neo Performance shares are gaining strength after a buyout of one of its rare-earth businesses.

The rest of the portfolio is holding up well, with big moves from Cava Group (CAVA), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) and On Holding (ONON) in the last week. Here’s what’s happening with all our stocks.

Updates

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, is about 15% off its highs after topping out above 38 a share (an all-time high) a week ago. No surprise there, given that the stock was up more than 80% the week before and more than 500% in the last three months! It’s why I recommended selling up to a third of your shares in last week’s issue, just hours before the stock hit a short-term peak. Even if you didn’t, we still have a VERY large gain in a short amount of time. There’s been no news since the company set a launch for its five commercial satellites in the first half of September. If successful, they would be the largest commercial communications arrays in low-Earth orbit in history. The company is developing a space-based cellular network that will provide global broadband service to every smartphone, starting with the U.S. It’s a big-swing, potentially revolutionary idea – hence the massive run-up in the share price. That said, take caution in the next few weeks, as a delay in the timing of the launches could knock the share price back more. But we’ll stay on buy, especially after the 15% dip in the last week. For those who have not yet bought, this could be a decent entry point – especially in the long term. BUY

Aviva plc (AVVIY), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in Cabot Value Investor, gave back a couple dimes after reaching new 52-week highs around 13.30. The London-based life insurance and investment management provider has gotten a boost from very solid first-half (rather than quarterly) 2024 earnings results, with operating profits of £875 million, up 14% from the first half of 2023 and ahead of analyst estimates. Insurance premiums increased 15%, which helped, as did a 49% boost in its protections business thanks in large part to the company’s acquisition of AIG Life earlier this year.

The strong quarter prompted this note from Jefferies analyst James Pierce: “Aviva continues to demonstrate strong delivery versus its targets, beating consensus expectations across all its headline metrics. In our view, Aviva remains the only U.K. insurer that can reliably deliver long-term special capital returns, accretive M&A (mergers and acquisitions), attractive ordinary dividend growth, and consistent earnings-per-share growth.”

And yet, the stock remains cheap, trading at 11.8x forward earnings estimates and at 0.34x sales. The stock is nearing our 14 price target in Cabot Value Investor, though given the latest earnings growth, it’s possible I’ll need to raise that target.

The growing and high-yielding (6.6% yield) dividend adds to Aviva’s appeal – and our total return thus far. BUY

Blackstone Inc. (BX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, continued its late-August recovery, climbing from lows of 127 on August 7 to 140 as of this writing – just shy of its late-July highs above 143. When the market gets going, BX shares tend to rise even faster, which is why Mike termed Blackstone a “Bull Market Stock.” It’s been a bull market for 22 months, and BX hasn’t led us astray, up more than 30% in the year since we added it to the portfolio. As long as the bull market remains intact, BX will likely have a spot in our portfolio. BUY

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in Cabot Dividend Investor, was flat ahead of earnings next Thursday, September 5. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “It has been an impressive turnaround. After a rare period of weakness for this AI superstar when it fell 26% from mid-June to the first week of August, it’s spiked 24% over the last two weeks. Despite the recent turbulence, AVGO is still up 55% YTD. The selloff in technology is over for now, and Broadcom reports earnings in the first week of September. That could also provide a big boost as has often been the case recently. The AI catalyst isn’t going away and the prognosis going forward is still spectacular.” We downgraded the stock to Hold on the heels of its weak July and will keep it right there until after next week’s earnings report. The stock is still well shy of its June highs near 183. HOLD

Cava Group (CAVA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, entered a new stratosphere after reporting earnings last Thursday, gapping up from 102 to new record highs above 125! The fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain reported earnings per share of 17 cents, well ahead of the 13 cents anticipated, while revenue ($231.4 million) improved 35% year over year and also easily topped estimates ($219.5 million). Also, same-store sales increased an impressive 14.2%, blowing away the expected 8.2% growth. The company opened 18 new restaurants in the second quarter and expects to open as many as 57 new locations this year. Profit margins are in the 24.2% to 24.7% range. So, there was a lot for investors to like!

CAVA is now nearly a double for us. We downgraded the stock to Hold on weakness in July (it fell from 95 to 77); now, given the massive gap up, we’ll keep it at Hold for the opposite reason – it’s possible (and perhaps likely) that the stock is a bit overextended in the short term, and some kind of pullback is likely. If you got in early after our April recommendation, I suggest selling up to a third of your shares to book profits while the stock price is so elevated. But officially, we’ll stay on Hold. Clearly, there’s a lot to like about this fast-growing cookie-cutter restaurant chain, but I’d expect the air to come out of the balloon at least a little bit in the coming days/weeks. HOLD

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), originally recommended by yours truly in my Cabot Value Investor advisory, just keeps climbing, adding another 4% last week and up more than 21% in the last three weeks, all on no company-specific news. The rally will be put to the test next Wednesday, September 4 when the sporting goods retailer reports earnings. I’ve set a 250 price target on DKS shares in Cabot Value Investor, but that’s starting to look conservative. BUY

DoorDash Inc. (DASH), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, held firm at 129 this week on no news. The food delivery power saw a 20% increase in order volume in the second quarter, while revenues improved 23% and EBITDA soared 54%. Furthermore, the company may soon expand beyond just restaurant delivery into groceries, alcohol, beauty supplies and home improvement goods. The company is already growing fast, but there could be avenues for even greater growth ahead, which is why we added it to the portfolio two weeks ago. BUY

Dutch Bros (BROS), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, is off to a solid start, rising from 31 to 32 in its first week in the portfolio. As Carl noted in his latest update, “Dutch Bros is an operator and franchisor of drive-through coffee stores, with about 900 locations across 17 states in the U.S. Shares have pulled back in the last month due to a combination of some profit taking and guidance from management that growth may moderate a bit. It is expanding at a steady pace, expecting up to 165 new stores this year. A Cowen analyst reiterated a buy rating this week with a price target of 47.” BUY

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, kept adding on to its recent recovery, advancing more than 3% this week. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “This superstar pharma company that has outperformed most ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks is on fire again. The earnings report absolutely killed it and guidance was raised by many billions as the weight-loss drug continues to do incredible business while the other drugs aren’t too shabby either. LLY is up 20% since it was raised to a BUY two weeks ago. It also has a likely blockbuster in the newly approved Alzheimer’s drug. It’s expensive from a valuation standpoint but the growth justifies it.” BUY

GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, held at record highs around 163, taking a well-earned breather after going nowhere but up for most of August. There was no news. The web domain registry company is coming off a very impressive quarter in which earnings per share came in at $1.10, edging estimates and up 76% year over year. Revenues of $1.12 billion only beat estimates by one percentage point but marked a 7.3% improvement from the same quarter a year ago. Average revenue per user ($210) increased 5.5%. Its new AI-powered solution, Airo, is the main draw for investors, who have been snatching up shares since the solution was announced last fall – when the share price was in the 70s. Airo has completely transformed the stock. Now, it’s starting to power the bottom line. BUY

Green Thumb Industries Inc. (GTBIF), originally recommended by Michael Brush in Cabot Cannabis Investor, keeps ping-ponging between the high 10s and the low 11s, though it seems to have put its August bottom in the low 10s in the rearview mirror. Earlier this month, the company reported 11% revenue growth in Q2, including 2.3% same-store growth; the company added 11 new retail stores in the quarter. It’s investing to expand operations in Florida, Connecticut, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia, most of which may soon launch recreational-use sales (it’s on the ballot in Florida this November). But what really might move the needle for the stock price is if/when cannabis rescheduling (from a Class I to a Class III drug) gains final approval. That could happen ahead of the election. It’s reason enough to hang in there with this stubborn, high-upside cannabis position. HOLD

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, is flat since our last issue, though it did advance to highs above 490 before pulling back the last two trading days. There’s been no news of late for this maker of the da Vinci robot surgical system. The company recently introduced its new da Vinci 5 system, which is starting to ramp up sales: It sold 70 of them in Q2, up from a mere eight in Q1. That’s a good trend. BUY

iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in Cabot Explorer, was up from 82 to 83 in the last week. The SMIN is a $960 million fund that holds a basket of about 500 small-cap India stocks. It is nicely diversified with the top 10 stocks accounting for just 12% of assets. The lead sector is industrials at 25%, followed by finance at 15%, consumer goods at 14%, basic materials at 13% and healthcare at 10%. BUY

Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the High Yield Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, keeps holding firm at 49. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “Main Street reported earnings that met market expectations. The BDC also reiterated its monthly dividend of $0.245 per share for the rest of the year and announced an additional $0.30 per share supplemental dividend payable in September. The BDC has a lot of small business exposure, which is problematic during recessions. MAIN has recovered from last week’s selloff and is only down 3% in August after having been in an uptrend since last fall. A recession would certainly change the dynamics. However, solid earnings and reduced recession expectations are resulting in the stock regaining lost ground.” BUY

McKesson Corporation (MCK), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was flat at 550 – a bit disappointing considering the market was up and in the wake of its early-August implosion from 630 to as low as 541. As Tom wrote last week, “The pharmaceutical supply chain powerhouse has certainly stumbled. It’s down 13% since the disappointing earnings report last month. Earnings were strong but revenues were less than expected as weight-loss drugs couldn’t keep up with demand. The business is still strong and growing, but when a company whose stock has performed so well disappoints, the market is unforgiving. But MCK has leveled off and it is still up 16% YTD. I expect MCK to resume its uptrend in the weeks and months ahead and post solid returns between now and the end of the year.” I trust Tom. So I’ll keep the stock at Buy on the assumption that he’s right. BUY

Microsoft (MSFT), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, is down about 1% since our last issue but remains well clear of its early-August bottom just below 400. The only real news is that the company is planning a Windows security overhaul in the wake of last month’s bungled CrowdStrike software update that grounded flights and slowed commerce around the world when it crashed 8.5 million Windows devices. Security overhauls aren’t exactly the type of news that moves share prices, and actually may have hurt a bit, since it amounts to an admission of guilt from Microsoft. But it does little to change the fact that this is one of best, more resilient growth stocks in the market, and has been for decades. It belongs in any long-term portfolio. BUY

Neo Performance Materials (NOPMF), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, continued its second-half-of-August recovery, up another 5% this week on reports that the company is selling its China rare earths business for $30 million, representing a 10.7x multiple to five-year trailing EBITDA on its Jiangyin Jiahua Advanced Material Resources facility. The company will retain about a 9% interest in the business. CEO Rahim Suleman said the sale to China will result in “larger production and sourcing scale.” The sale is to Shenghe, a leading rare earth company based in China. With momentum back on NOPMF’s side, let’s upgrade the stock back to Buy. MOVE FROM HOLD TO BUY

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, is flat in the last week though it did briefly touch new all-time highs near 700. The streamer’s new bromance with the NFL continues to expand, as Verizon announced that it will offer one free year of Netflix Premium to anyone with an NFL+ streaming subscription. That comes on the heels of news that Netflix will produce its first living sporting event – Christmas Day NFL games. Given that unlike many other sports in the streaming age, the NFL’s ratings are better than ever, this seems like a wise – and potentially profitable – partnership. BUY

Novo Nordisk (NVO), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in Cabot Explorer, was unchanged this week. Demand for the Danish drugmaker’s two all-star weight-loss drugs, Ozempic (+30%) and Wegovy (+69%), remained robust in the latest quarter, and the stock bounced back quickly from a late-July/early-August tumble to 119. At 135, the stock is still well shy of its June highs near 147. Seems like a good buying opportunity in an industry-leading stock. BUY

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, held firm at 98 after running up from 86 the week before. The bargain retailer reports earnings this Thursday, August 29. Analysts are looking for 78 cents per share in earnings, a 16.4% bump from a year ago. We’ll see what happens. I’d keep new buys small prior to the report. BUY

On Holding (ONON), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has zoomed to new highs above 45. Why the strength? Mike has the answers: “ONON continues to act constructively, shaking off some post-earnings nervousness to approach its June high this week. While the Q2 report had a couple of flaws, they appeared to be over and done with or due to a few currency fluctuations (not uncommon for a Swiss outfit selling globally), and the overall view is one of a healthy, well-rounded business: Currency-neutral revenues were up 29% overall in the quarter, and that was spread across nearly every channel (up 30% direct-to-consumer, up 29% wholesale), region (Europe/Middle East up 22%, Americas up 26%, Asia Pacific up 85%) and product line (shoes up 28%, apparel up 67%, accessories up 26%)—and this was with some less-than-ideal operations at its Atlanta facility, where the firm is building a fully automated warehouse (good) that’s leading to short-term capacity constraints and late deliveries (bad). Bottom line, the underlying growth story here looks to be on track, and the stock itself is back near the top of an 11-week base.” Mike wrote this last Thursday, and ONON appears to have since broken through that overhead resistance. It’s possible the new rally has plenty more legs. BUY

Sea Limited (SE), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, was up another point (81 to 82) after advancing more than 20% last week. An encouraging earnings report two weeks ago has been the clear catalyst. Revenue was $3.8 billion, up 23% year-on-year, and net income was $79.9 million. All three of Sea’s major segments – Garena (gaming), Shopee (e-commerce) and SeaMoney (fintech) – are moving in the right direction, with all three reporting revenue growth that exceeded 20% in the latest quarter. And as Carl noted last week, “Sea founder and CEO Forrest Li mentioned in the recent earnings call that he was ‘very, very focused on’ building the right AI tools for Sea’s business and sees great applications in e-commerce and gaming.” Sea’s diversified, three-pronged business (it also has a fintech wing) is what makes it an excellent catch-all play on Southeast Asian growth. BUY

Tesla (TSLA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, pulled back about 4% this week, with virtually all of the losses coming today on no company-specific news (Donald Trump said he would consider Elon Musk for a cabinet position if Musk “wasn’t so busy”). TSLA shares are still up meaningfully in the last two months despite a big, earnings-related drawdown after topping out above 260 in mid-July. Not much news for the company at the moment, so expect shares to normalize after a super-volatile month-plus. BUY

UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, tacked on another 1% this week and is an accounting error away from matching its early-August highs. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “After a big move in July, UNH has been bouncing around for about a month, but the new range is still near the high. UNH soared about 20% since early July and made a new 52-week high. Earnings drove the stock. UnitedHealth beat earnings forecasts as it added more patients and pharmaceutical customers despite a continuing negative effect on profits from the February cyber-attack. UnitedHealth also reaffirmed previous guidance for 2024. The market is apparently happy and reassured. It’s also well positioned in a slowing economy as a highly defensive stock.” BUY

United States Steel Corporation (X), originally recommended in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, is down about 8% in the last week as it appears the deal with Nippon Steel may be in jeopardy. It was enough to spook Clif Droke, new Chief Analyst of the Turnaround Letter, into selling his X shares. Here’s what Clif had to say about it: “(W)e are moving shares of U.S. Steel (X) from BUY to SELL.

“Comments by former President Donald Trump were followed by selling pressure in the stock earlier this week after he said he would block the Nippon Steel deal if he wins the White House in November. (Shares of U.S. Steel rose by around 10% on hopes that the Nippon deal would close this year, but the deal has been delayed by several months due to political pressures and arbitration hearings related to labor issues.)

“The buy position in the company was initiated by my predecessor on expectations of a cyclical recovery, and while this is still a possibility further out, the leading U.S.-listed steel stocks are showing considerable weakness, which puts U.S. Steel—the group leader until now—in a vulnerable position. Commodity steel prices are also lagging as mills in China struggle for profitability in the face of what industry analysts are calling ‘sluggish’ demand.

“I would normally give a recently initiated stock more leeway to turn around before making the decision to cut. But given the extreme cyclicality of the steel industry, I believe discretion is paramount in this instance.”

I agree. We added X shares almost entirely on the promise of the Nippon Steel deal being approved. If Trump gets elected in November, it’s possible that won’t happen. Better to be safe than sorry and get out with a small profit. Let’s sell U.S. Steel. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL

Viking Holdings (VIK), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his “Best Stocks to Buy in August” report, is flat in the last week, though it went for a wild ride after reporting earnings, dipping as low as 33 before clawing back to 35. While sales improved 9% year over year, both revenue and earnings fell short of analyst estimates. While sales barely missed ($1.59 billion vs. $1.60 billion expected), EPS ($0.37) was well short of estimates ($0.66) and represented an 18% year-over-year decline. Bookings, however, remained strong at 20% growth, which is perhaps what investors are latching on to after the initial selloff. VIK came public at 24 a share in May and is now up to 35 – essentially holding its ground after its first earnings report as a public company underwhelmed. That seems like a good sign, and that investors want to buy this stock as a play on the post-Covid return to global travel. BUY

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me at chris@cabotwealth.com.

Here, too, is the latest episode of Cabot Street Check, the weekly podcast I host with my colleague Brad Simmerman.

The next Cabot Stock of the Week issue will be published on September 3, 2024.

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