After an amazing run higher, growth stocks hit an air pocket this week, with many highfliers coming down and some abnormal action being seen. We haven’t exactly floored the accelerator during the past few weeks, and we took our cues from individual stocks, paring back this week and leaving us with a good-sized cash position. That said, we’re not making any major market call--the trends remain up, and many growth stocks are acting OK--so while we want to see how growth reacts from here, we’re flexible and could put some money back to work soon if key names stabilize.

The markets are reacting to the inflation report, hot off the press. Core CPI was 3.3%, just as economists had predicted. That bodes well for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where most experts forecast another 25-basis-point reduction.

Over the past month, the markets surged following the election but have pulled back in the last few days. While I think we may see some small pullbacks in the next month or so, I’m still bullish but think strategic buys—not dartboard throwing—are the method to boost portfolio returns.

It’s been a great year in the market with the S&P up 27%. And there is good reason for optimism about 2025.

We are in a bull market that began in October of 2022. Bull markets don’t usually run out of gas after just two years, especially recent ones. The Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that is likely to last for the next two years. Plus, the economy is solid and expected to get stronger. Rate cuts in a strong economy are unusual, but the combination should be great for stocks.

One sector may have a better 2025 prognosis than the overall market: Financial stocks have been on a tear since the summer. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is up 33% YTD and 22% since early August. Despite the recent spike, many financial stocks are still cheap after a decade and a half of underperformance.

Financial stocks are dependent on yield spreads, economic growth, and relaxed regulations. All those areas are improving or expected to improve as a result of the election.

In this issue, I highlight one of the highest-growth companies in an industry that is on the rise. It is the leading all-digital bank in the country. Unlike many other industry-leading stocks, it is still well below the high because of a recent temporary stumble which has likely only delayed its price spike.

It was another interesting week for the market as the Nasdaq rallied 3.3%, while the S&P 500 added 1% and the Dow fell 0.6%. That is quite the performance difference between the Nasdaq and Dow!

From a top-down perspective, the market remains in good shape, but the real action in the past few weeks has concerned leading stocks, and today many hit air pockets, with plenty of short-term abnormal action (and some intermediate-term abnormal action, too). So where do we stand? One day doesn’t mean the party is over, and frankly, we see some stocks that are approaching decent risk/reward entries, but today is a red flag for some names and is a reminder to manage your portfolio (partial profits, respecting stops) and to aim for decent entries. We’re not panicking, but we’ll lower our Market Monitor to a level 7 and see how things go from here.

This week’s list has a nice mix, with some winners that have been resting for a few weeks alongside some names that have recently shown power. Our Top Pick is a name we’ve kept an eye on for a long time and is now beginning to emerge after a tough mid-year stretch.

At a high level, the market is still humming on all cylinders, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hovering near all-time highs. But look closer, and some cracks have egun to form, with the Dow down in the last week and some high-flying growth stocks – including several in the Stock of the Week portfolio – getting sold off today. With inflation data to come later this week, it’s possible a pullback of some kind is in order. So today, we add an inflation-proof stock that Clif Droke just wrote extensively about in his Cabot Turnaround Letter advisory.

Details inside.

It was another interesting week for the market as the Nasdaq rallied 3.3%, while the S&P 500 added 1% and the Dow fell 0.6%. That is quite the performance difference between the Nasdaq and Dow!

It was another interesting week for the market as the Nasdaq rallied 3.3%, while the S&P 500 added 1% and the Dow fell 0.6%. That is quite the performance difference between the Nasdaq and Dow!

The market party is on, but someone forgot to tell healthcare stocks.

They’re the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors that is actually down in the month since the presidential election. That has everything to do with these five letters: RFK Jr. But are concerns about Trump’s controversial pick to lead the Health and Human Services Department overblown? It appears Wall Street is starting to think so, as the sector has been in steady recovery after an initial sell-off. Still, as a whole, healthcare stocks have been the weakest performers of any major sector this year. And that spells opportunity for value investors.

In today’s issue, we add a big-name, undervalued healthcare stock to our Buy Low Opportunities portfolio. It’s a company whose name you likely know – and that’s showing signs of more consistent profit growth.

Details inside.

Today’s opportunity skews toward the more speculative end of the spectrum, which is part of why I find it so darn enticing.

If you’re interested in a gold miner that also has an angle to help the U.S. produce a critical element, antimony, currently in short supply outside of China, Russia and Tajikistan, none of which are cozying up to the U.S. right now, this is the stock for you.

While we began a position in this stock via yesterday’s Special Bulletin, all the details are inside this month’s Issue.

This was a good week for Explorer stocks, and as we head into the end of the year, Sea Limited (SE) is so far up 190%, IBM (IBM) is up 48% and Dutch Bros (BROS) was up 62% in November alone.

Tariffs are topic one in Washington and the financial media. Markets don’t know how everything will work out. Mexico is America’s largest trading partner, followed by Canada and then China. America still imports 4 million barrels of crude oil a day from Canada, which is also a key partner on the critical minerals front. More than half of America’s imports of fruits and vegetables come from Mexico. Automakers, which have built factories in Mexico to produce vehicles for the American market, are at risk and their stocks are falling at the wrong time.

But there’s one huge (non-Tesla) exception, which we will add to the Explorer portfolio today.

The market continued to inch its way higher in the two weeks since I last wrote. The Stock of the Week portfolio isn’t inching – it’s soaring. Multiple positions in our portfolio were up double-digit percentages in the last couple weeks, with several others hitting new 52-week or all-time highs. As always, it’s a testament to the elite stock-picking ability of our superb analysts. And today, we add another stock, a familiar name that has regained momentum enough to warrant inclusion in last week’s Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory.

Details inside.

Ammo Inc (POWW) beat on revenue of $40.42M but its EPS of $0.01 per share missed expectations by $0.03. The company experienced sequential revenue growth in the ammunition segment and maintained robust margins in the GunBroker marketplace, but total revenues and gross profit margin were both down year-on-year, influenced by a shift in sales mix and macroeconomic pressures. The year ended with substantial operational cash flow and an improved net working capital position including $55.6M in cash, positioning the company for future growth.

Small caps are off ever so slightly over the last five sessions, though yesterday’s CPI data and Jerome Powell’s press conference/FOMC meeting helped the asset class bounce back from what was a fairly ugly looking four-day slide. The big-picture takeaway here is that the asset class is suffering from the same type of bad breadth malaise that’s keeping a lid on much of the broader market.

Good enough.

That was the resounding sentiment on Wall Street after Wednesday morning’s inflation print came in slightly better than expectations … but still stubbornly above 3% year over year. The headline CPI number for May, 3.3% year over year, was just below the 3.4% economists anticipated; the month-over-month increase (0.2%) was also a bit lighter than expected (0.3%).

Inflation cooled for the second straight month in May, the U.S. labor market seems back to pre-pandemic levels, and the economy is expanding at a low but steady pace.

Therefore, the Fed is holding back on interest rate cuts. Probably the right move. Keep the ammo dry for when it is really needed. This was a solid week for Explorer stocks with all making gains except for a small pullback in Super Micro (SCMI).

Since Halloween, the last seven times I have made a call in Cabot Cannabis Investor to buy the AdvisorShares MSOS 2X Daily (MSOX) in sector weakness, the exchange-traded fund has gone up 68% on average over the next one to seven weeks.

The last time I made a trading call to buy the cannabis sector was on May 29.

Since that was less than two weeks ago and the maximum time to profit after trading calls is seven weeks, I am not too concerned about the flat performance of cannabis stocks since then.

It’s a new high! April was down. May was up. And June has been an up month so far. Hopefully, June will follow through and be another good month, but I’m still expecting a flatter market for a while.

The market goes back and forth with the interest rate narrative. But I don’t expect a resolution on that issue any time soon, or at least for the rest of the summer. Either the economy has to slow, or the Fed is going to at least leave rates where they are. But investors still insist on expecting rate cuts before the end of the year even though the economy looks strong.

Earnings season is largely over, so there were no companies that reported earnings this past week. However, we do have at least one company reporting next week – Ammo, Inc. (POWW). And the next earnings season is frankly just around the corner, with Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) announcing they’ll release their next round of results the last week of the month.

WHAT TO DO NOW: With the market’s intermediate-term evidence mixed, you should take things on a stock-by-stock basis—holding what’s working but selling what’s not, while holding some cash as we wait for the market and growth stocks to show their hand. Our Cabot and Growth Tides remain neutral and our Two-Second Indicator is iffy, so even though we do see a few tempting names, we’re going to hold our 35% cash position tonight and see if the bulls can step up for more than a few hours. We have no changes tonight.

It’s been a great market for a while. But it has leveled off since the middle of May. I expect more of the same going forward.

The S&P 500 pulled back in early April after a five-month rally as sticky inflation soured the interest rate narrative. The index then recovered to new highs in the middle of May on an improved interest rate outlook. But stocks have since leveled off as the interest rate outlook got stuck in the mud.

The market has leveled off since the middle of May. I expect more of the same going forward.

The S&P 500 pulled back in early April after a five-month rally as sticky inflation soured the interest rate narrative. The index then recovered to new highs in the middle of May on an improved interest rate outlook. But stocks have since leveled off as the interest rate outlook got stuck in the mud.

Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) reported its fiscal first-quarter 2024 results, with revenues of $116.68 million, missing estimates by 2.52% and down from $123.76 million a year ago. The company posted a net loss of $7.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 million. Despite sales challenges, CEO Sam Sato highlighted improved inventory management and successful customer engagement campaigns. The company ended the quarter with $6.8 million in cash and updated its fiscal 2024 outlook to net sales of $640 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $39 million.

It’s been another week of small caps getting pulled around by moves in the 10-year yield, which is largely a function of Fed speaker commentary.

First it was Neel Kashkari (non-voter) sounding off with hawkish comments (yields up, small caps down), though it’s the inverse today after Raphael Bostic (voter) said he still thinks the Fed will be in position to cut rates in Q4.

Next up are NY Fed President John Williams (12:05 ET) while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks after the close today.

Shares of Crocs (CROX) are breaking out to multi-month highs above 120 today after Q4 earnings sailed past expectations (not a complete surprise given the January 8 pre-release) thanks to outperformance of the Crocs brand (HeyDude brand was in line with expectations).

We are recommending shares of CNH Industrial (CNHI) as a new Buy. The company is a major producer of agriculture (80% of sales) and construction (20% of sales) equipment for customers around the world and is the #2 ag equipment producer in North America (behind Deere). It also provides related supplies, services and financing.

Okay, it’s time to start rolling the remainder of our February 16 short calls. I’m going to start with our GLD position in All-Weather and then move on to the Yale Endowment Portfolio followed by the various Dogs of the Dow Portfolios.

Shares of Shopify (SHOP) are giving up last week’s gains (plus a little) today after the company reported Q4 results before the market opened. Revenue growth of 24.5% to $2.16 billion was solid (beat by 3.7%) as was Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growth of 23% (roughly 10 points faster than broad eCommerce growth) and adjusted EPS of $0.34 ($0.04 better than expected).

WHAT TO DO NOW: Hold some cash and take things on a stock-by-stock basis. The market is getting whacked today as inflation remains higher than expected, which has interest rates rallying sharply and expectations of Fed rate cuts sliding. That said, the trends of most indexes and stocks are still fine, and with 30% in cash coming into today, we’re not overreacting—but we will sell one-third of our Arista Networks (ANET) position, which is one of many tech names getting whacked after a good-not-great quarterly report, while placing PulteGroup (PHM) on Hold. That will leave us with around 33% in cash, which we’ll hang on to as we see how this pullback plays out.

I’m selling more call premium in GDX today. We’ve reaped most of the call premium from our February 16, 2024, 29 calls so I’m going to buy them back and sell more premium going out to the March expiration.

Shares of Pinterest (PINS) are selling off today after Q4 earnings came in slightly below expectations (food and beverage weakness a culprit), though the big-picture story remains one of a company that’s made a number of operational adjustments and launched a series of growth initiatives that should drive higher revenue and EPS growth in 2024. I think the recovery story is intact and the stock’s worth owning. Keeping at buy half.

As I stated yesterday, I’ll be rolling our February expiration short call positions into March expiration over the next few days. Moreover, per usual this time of year, I’ll be selling our LEAPS in the passive portfolios (All-Weather and Yale Endowment) at March expiration and buying new LEAPS going out to the January 2026 expiration.

I’ll be sending out alerts for several of our Fundamentals portfolios over the next several days, most likely stretching into early next week, as we stay mechanical and roll our February 16, 2024, calls into various March expiration cycles.

Intapp (INTA) is down about 10% today (downside move wipes out January gain and puts stock at support near 40) after reporting Q2 fiscal 2024 results. I don’t love the reaction but think this will prove to be “noise” and that INTA remains a supremely compelling stock to own.

I will be exiting our Amgen (AMGN) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our upcoming weekly issue and within our subscriber-only call this Friday.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.