Issues
Stocks have been very resilient. The market has proven a lot of naysayers wrong. But prices are high, and uncertainty abounds.
Tariffs won’t be a disaster, but there will still be more headlines and uncertainty in the months ahead. The economy is okay, but it’s not great. Interest rates are still stubbornly high. And now the Iran conflict is thrown into the mix along with the tariffs and the economy. Meanwhile, the market indexes are hovering near the high and most stocks are pricey.
Several portfolio positions have had strong rallies in the recovery and are generating high call premiums. The high strike prices guarantee a strong total return if the stocks are called. The high premiums provide a great way to lock in the recent market good fortune by generating a high income from call premiums.
Let’s take what the market is giving. Right now, it’s giving a high income. Tomorrow, who knows? In this issue, I highlight a covered call in Qualcomm (QCOM). It is the sixth call sold on the position since the stock was added to the portfolio four years ago. It’s a great time to prime the pump for income once again.
Tariffs won’t be a disaster, but there will still be more headlines and uncertainty in the months ahead. The economy is okay, but it’s not great. Interest rates are still stubbornly high. And now the Iran conflict is thrown into the mix along with the tariffs and the economy. Meanwhile, the market indexes are hovering near the high and most stocks are pricey.
Several portfolio positions have had strong rallies in the recovery and are generating high call premiums. The high strike prices guarantee a strong total return if the stocks are called. The high premiums provide a great way to lock in the recent market good fortune by generating a high income from call premiums.
Let’s take what the market is giving. Right now, it’s giving a high income. Tomorrow, who knows? In this issue, I highlight a covered call in Qualcomm (QCOM). It is the sixth call sold on the position since the stock was added to the portfolio four years ago. It’s a great time to prime the pump for income once again.
The worries in the Middle East have continued to move markets in the last week, and despite some worrisome moments as well as signs of hope, the markets are little changed since we last wrote. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow was virtually unchanged and the Nasdaq eked out a small gain.
The Middle East uncertainties came to the forefront just over a week ago, and that uncertainty flared up further this weekend with the U.S. joining the fray on Saturday night. Even so, stocks have remained resilient, with all of the indexes remaining in intermediate-term uptrends and not far from their recent highs, and there’s been very little abnormal action among individual stocks even after their big runs in May. That’s all to the good—but, at the same time, nothing has changed for the better, as very few stocks are reaching new high ground and there hasn’t been much net progress for the past month, even in many leaders. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7.
This week’s list has names from every nook and cranny in the market, which is a good sign. Our Top Pick is a real leader but has rested a bit during the past couple of weeks as the 25-day line has caught up. We’re OK entering here or (preferably) on dips.
This week’s list has names from every nook and cranny in the market, which is a good sign. Our Top Pick is a real leader but has rested a bit during the past couple of weeks as the 25-day line has caught up. We’re OK entering here or (preferably) on dips.
Stocks continue to hold the line, even as the dual tidal waves of America’s involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict and the fast-approaching tariff deadlines threaten to submerge everything. Until that happens, though, we should invest in the market in front of us, not the one we think could materialize. And so today, that means going back to the growth well and adding a medium-sized software offering from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon to the portfolio.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The worries in the Middle East continued to move markets last week, and despite some worrisome moments as well as signs of hope, by week’s end the markets were little changed. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow was virtually unchanged and the Nasdaq eked out a small gain.
The worries in the Middle East continued to move markets last week, and despite some worrisome moments as well as signs of hope, by week’s end the markets were little changed. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow was virtually unchanged and the Nasdaq eked out a small gain.
Despite a number of domestic and international geopolitical concerns, the market continues to act well. The S&P 500 is within a stone’s throw of its February all-time high.
This month, we add two high-growth tech names and place three additional compelling opportunities on our Watch List.
This month, we add two high-growth tech names and place three additional compelling opportunities on our Watch List.
The market is weathering rising uncertainty as every major group of companies in the index, from banks to commodities, has climbed since the low point in April, with a small number of the usual mega-cap tech stocks leading the charge.
The World Bank announced it would lift its longstanding ban on funding nuclear power projects. The tide of sentiment is turning along with nuclear power stocks. The ban has been in place since 2013, but the last time the bank funded a nuclear power project was 1959.
The World Bank announced it would lift its longstanding ban on funding nuclear power projects. The tide of sentiment is turning along with nuclear power stocks. The ban has been in place since 2013, but the last time the bank funded a nuclear power project was 1959.
Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.
We had written lately that the market had been extremely quiet in recent weeks ... possibly a bit too quiet, as the market has a way of hitting a pothole after a period of calm. Sure enough, we saw some growth stocks ease early last week, and then the Middle East attacks and counterattacks caused selling on Friday. Even so, it’s been a normal wobble so far, and while things are likely to be tricky and news-driven in the near term based on the happenings in the Middle East, just about all of the intermediate-term evidence remains bullish. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7 today.
This week’s list is surprisingly growth-y, with many names from different sectors at or threatening new high ground. Our Top Pick looks to be near a decent entry after a humongous rally from early April to late May.
This week’s list is surprisingly growth-y, with many names from different sectors at or threatening new high ground. Our Top Pick looks to be near a decent entry after a humongous rally from early April to late May.
The market remains in decent shape despite an onslaught of potential landmines, including the new conflict in the Middle East, worsening unrest domestically and the July 9 deadline on the 90-day tariff pause for some 130 countries fast approaching. It’s not raining, but dark clouds are forming, so it’s worth bringing a poncho with you the next time you leave the house (so to speak). Today, we go with what’s working, and that’s energy, as oil prices have gotten an immediate boost from the sudden Israel-Iran war. Fortunately, Cabot Dividend Investor Chief Analyst Tom Hutchinson has one of the best-performing energy-related stocks out there, and one that pays a nice dividend to boot. It’s the newest addition to the Stock of the Week portfolio.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.
Updates
The market enjoyed a little bounce yesterday but is still working to find a level of support from which to mount an eventual recovery. This is a process, not an event. Nobody knows if we have reached that level yet.
We’ve been through these types of volatile markets many times in the past. While the drivers of the volatility are often different, one of the consistencies is that it is best to exercise patience and let new leaders show themselves. They always do.
In this case, the main drivers of the current market correction are Trump’s tariffs/trade war and massive disruptions in the federal government.
We’ve been through these types of volatile markets many times in the past. While the drivers of the volatility are often different, one of the consistencies is that it is best to exercise patience and let new leaders show themselves. They always do.
In this case, the main drivers of the current market correction are Trump’s tariffs/trade war and massive disruptions in the federal government.
It’s amazing what a halfway decent inflation report can do.
On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in both lower than expected and better than the previous month at 2.8%. Economists were looking for a 2.9% year-over-year gain, down a tick from the 3% gain in January. Instead, it’s down two ticks and up just 0.2% from January – again, a tick less than the 0.3% month-over-month gain that was estimated. So, Wall Street rejoiced, at least for a few hours. All three major indexes were up more than 1% in early Wednesday trading, a welcome reprieve after weeks of getting pummeled into either correction status (the Nasdaq) or near-correction territory (S&P 500 and the Dow). Yes, the thing that’s been feeding this forceful sell-off – tariffs, and an ever-escalating trade war with multiple countries – is still raging. But higher inflation is a big reason people fear tariffs in the first place. And for one month at least, inflation came in cooler than expected.
On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in both lower than expected and better than the previous month at 2.8%. Economists were looking for a 2.9% year-over-year gain, down a tick from the 3% gain in January. Instead, it’s down two ticks and up just 0.2% from January – again, a tick less than the 0.3% month-over-month gain that was estimated. So, Wall Street rejoiced, at least for a few hours. All three major indexes were up more than 1% in early Wednesday trading, a welcome reprieve after weeks of getting pummeled into either correction status (the Nasdaq) or near-correction territory (S&P 500 and the Dow). Yes, the thing that’s been feeding this forceful sell-off – tariffs, and an ever-escalating trade war with multiple countries – is still raging. But higher inflation is a big reason people fear tariffs in the first place. And for one month at least, inflation came in cooler than expected.
It’s cannabis company earnings season. So, I highlight fourth-quarter results in this issue.
Before we get to the details, here are the key takeaways from earnings reports:
* Price compression continues, creating an ongoing “Hunger Games” environment in which only the financially strong will survive, given the debt levels at a lot of cannabis companies. Much of this debt comes due over the next two years. Bankruptcies might be the clearing event that helps bring an end to price compression. None of our names appear to be at risk, but no guarantees...
Before we get to the details, here are the key takeaways from earnings reports:
* Price compression continues, creating an ongoing “Hunger Games” environment in which only the financially strong will survive, given the debt levels at a lot of cannabis companies. Much of this debt comes due over the next two years. Bankruptcies might be the clearing event that helps bring an end to price compression. None of our names appear to be at risk, but no guarantees...
Selling accelerated this week after last week was the worst since September. The S&P is down 4% YTD and at its lowest level in more than five months. The Nasdaq index is in correction territory, down more than 10% from the high.
The big issue seems to be tariffs. Tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico are escalating. The new Canadian Prime Minister also appears to be taking a hard line, and it looks like the trade issues won’t be resolved for a while. But it’s also the fact that tariffs are hitting the economy at a vulnerable point as fears of a slowing economy are growing.
The big issue seems to be tariffs. Tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico are escalating. The new Canadian Prime Minister also appears to be taking a hard line, and it looks like the trade issues won’t be resolved for a while. But it’s also the fact that tariffs are hitting the economy at a vulnerable point as fears of a slowing economy are growing.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Paramount Global (PARA) and Starbucks (SBUX).
This week’s watch list includes a focus on the suddenly interesting toy market outlook, with two major industry members poised to benefit from it.
This week’s watch list includes a focus on the suddenly interesting toy market outlook, with two major industry members poised to benefit from it.
Before we get to an update on my journey through Asia, let me offer a few thoughts regarding recent market weakness and volatility, driven by rising economic and political uncertainty. Sea Limited (SE) bucked the trend with another strong quarter while American Superconductor (AMSC) shares had another tough week after a great run, down 15.8%.
The tariff on-and-off news is creating some turbulence as are the pivotal Congressional spending and tax negotiations.
The tariff on-and-off news is creating some turbulence as are the pivotal Congressional spending and tax negotiations.
Tariffs have officially arrived. And the market doesn’t like them one bit.
On Tuesday, the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and raised the level from 10% to 20% on China. Stocks fell as of midday on Tuesday, but not dramatically. It’s unwelcome news to a market that was already dealing with still-sticky inflation and diminished economic growth expectations.
On Tuesday, the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and raised the level from 10% to 20% on China. Stocks fell as of midday on Tuesday, but not dramatically. It’s unwelcome news to a market that was already dealing with still-sticky inflation and diminished economic growth expectations.
After a strong start to the year, February was a down month for the S&P 500. The index is just a little over 1% higher YTD. But the news is better than it may seem.
Sure, the market has been struggling. But it’s only because of technology, which is down over 5% YTD. Nine of the other ten sectors in the S&P are positive for the year. Some sectors are having very good years as Health Care is up over 8% and Consumer Staples and Financials are up over 7% YTD.
Sure, the market has been struggling. But it’s only because of technology, which is down over 5% YTD. Nine of the other ten sectors in the S&P are positive for the year. Some sectors are having very good years as Health Care is up over 8% and Consumer Staples and Financials are up over 7% YTD.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Paramount Global (PARA), Starbucks (SBUX) and Teladoc Health (TDOC).
This month’s catalyst report features a mixed bag of attractive turnaround candidates in several industries, including software, healthcare, luxury retail and chemicals.
This month’s catalyst report features a mixed bag of attractive turnaround candidates in several industries, including software, healthcare, luxury retail and chemicals.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain defensive. While there’s a chance the recent selling storm could be the final shakeout of this two-plus-month consolidation, the fact is the intermediate-term evidence (both top-down, and among many growth stocks) is now negative, with a lot of damage done to leaders. We’ve been holding a lot of cash for weeks but have pared back further, selling our remaining AppLovin (APP) stake on a special bulletin yesterday, leaving us with around a 66% cash position in the Model Portfolio. We have no changes tonight but are remaining flexible (buy or sell) for whatever comes next.
While the broad market has stabilized a little over the last couple of days, we are still very much in a risk-off environment. As we all know, the market hates uncertainty. And we’re getting plenty of it these days
On-again, off-again tariff threats are the big story this week with Trump’s latest comments reiterating March 4 as the date for Mexico and Canada tariffs and April 2 as the date for reciprocal tariffs (tariffs that match those levied by other countries on U.S. exports), and an additional 10% tariff on China as of that date.
On-again, off-again tariff threats are the big story this week with Trump’s latest comments reiterating March 4 as the date for Mexico and Canada tariffs and April 2 as the date for reciprocal tariffs (tariffs that match those levied by other countries on U.S. exports), and an additional 10% tariff on China as of that date.
Last Friday on the Cabot Street Check podcast I co-host with my colleague Brad Simmerman, I predicted that a 5% market pullback was forthcoming after a month of stagnation. We’re more than halfway there already: the S&P 500 is 3% off its highs entering Thursday and narrowly halted a four-day losing streak on Wednesday.
My reason for thinking a mini-correction was imminent was simple: a strong fourth-quarter earnings season had been helping to counteract all the bad news (tariffs, escalating inflation, stagnant interest rates, etc.) that’s impacted the market over the past six weeks … and Q4 earnings season is now effectively over. Sprinkle in the fact that the S&P had actually poked its head above new all-time highs just over a week ago, and a pullback of some kind seemed almost inevitable.
My reason for thinking a mini-correction was imminent was simple: a strong fourth-quarter earnings season had been helping to counteract all the bad news (tariffs, escalating inflation, stagnant interest rates, etc.) that’s impacted the market over the past six weeks … and Q4 earnings season is now effectively over. Sprinkle in the fact that the S&P had actually poked its head above new all-time highs just over a week ago, and a pullback of some kind seemed almost inevitable.
Alerts
Trump Victory May Spell Higher Costs for SharkNinja (SN); Lock in Gain; Sell UL Solutions (ULS)
UL Solutions (ULS) Reports; HubSpot (HUBS): Sell for Quick Gain
Varonis (VRNS) Moves to Sell. MSFT, FTAI, AAPL, SN up next.
Shares of our silicon battery startup Enovix (ENVX) are trading up nicely today after the company reported Q3 results after the close yesterday. Lots to cover here so I’ll bullet point the most relevant stuff then give my two cents:
We went into the TransMedics (TMDX) Q3 earnings report yesterday afternoon with a quarter of our original position and lingering questions about the underlying trends in the business.
Portfolios
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
An updated portfolio for Cabot Options Institute – Earnings Trader.
| Transaction Date | Poor Man’s Covered Calls | Original Price | Current Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | Premium Sold | Closing Price | Total Premium | Total Return | Position Delta |
| SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) | $172.46 | $166.79 | (open) | (current) | (closed) | (current) | ($5.67) | ||||
| 6/3/2022 | LEAPS January 19, 2024 145 call | $37.00 | $30.20 | ($6.80) | 80 | ||||||
| 6/3/2022 | July 15, 2022 181 call | $1.00 | $0.12 | $0.88 | |||||||
| 6/30/2022 | August 19, 2022 175 call | $1.91 | $0.21 | $1.70 | |||||||
| 7/28/2022 | September 16, 2022 169 call | $1.90 | $0.07 | $1.83 | |||||||
| 9/1/2022 | October 21, 2022 165 call | $1.45 | $0.03 | $1.42 | |||||||
| 10/14/2022 | November 18, 2022 159 call | $1.48 | $4.45 | ($2.97) | |||||||
| 11/10/2022 | December 16, 2022 169 call | $1.40 | $1.02 | $0.38 | |||||||
| 12/13/2022 | January 20, 2023 172 call | $1.96 | $1.12 | $1.96 | -27 | ||||||
| Totals | $11.10 | $35.40 | 53 | ||||||||
| Transaction Date | Poor Man’s Covered Calls | Original Price | Current Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | Premium Sold | Closing Price | Total Premium | Total Return | Position Delta |
| Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) | $30.45 | $24.16 | (open) | (current) | (closed) | (current) | ($6.29) | ||||
| 6/8/2022 | LEAPS January 19, 2024 22 call | $10.50 | $4.00 | ($6.50) | 70 | ||||||
| 6/8/2022 | July 15, 2022 32 call | $0.55 | $0.05 | $0.50 | |||||||
| 6/30/2022 | August 19, 2022 29 call | $0.50 | $0.05 | $0.45 | |||||||
| 7/28/2022 | September 16, 2022 27 call | $0.55 | $0.10 | $0.45 | |||||||
| 9/7/2022 | October 21, 2022 26 call | $0.50 | $0.00 | $0.50 | |||||||
| 10/25/2022 | December 16, 2022 27 call | $0.45 | $0.05 | $0.40 | |||||||
| 12/13/2022 | January 20, 2023 25 call | $0.45 | $0.35 | $0.45 | -33 | ||||||
| Totals | $3.00 | $6.75 | 37 | ||||||||
| Transaction Date | Poor Man’s Covered Calls | Original Price | Current Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | Premium Sold | Closing Price | Total Premium | Total Return | Position Delta |
| iShares Trust 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) | $101.93 | $98.61 | (open) | (current) | (closed) | ||||||
| 6/8/2022 | LEAPS January 19, 2024 85 call | $19.00 | $16.25 | ($2.75) | 81 | ||||||
| 6/8/2022 | July 15, 2022 103 call | $0.70 | $0.19 | $0.51 | |||||||
| 7/14/2022 | August 19, 2022 105 call | $0.58 | $0.12 | $0.46 | |||||||
| 8/11/2022 | October 21, 2022 105 call | $1.20 | $0.04 | $1.16 | |||||||
| 9/22/2022 | October 21, 2022 98.5 call | $0.55 | $0.05 | $0.50 | |||||||
| 10/12/2022 | November 25, 2022 97 call | $0.92 | $0.18 | $0.74 | |||||||
| 11/17/2022 | December 16, 2022 98 call | $0.50 | $0.86 | ($0.36) | |||||||
| 12/13/2022 | January 20, 2023 100 call | $0.88 | $0.74 | $0.88 | -35 | ||||||
| Totals | $5.33 | $20.14 | 46 | ||||||||
| Transaction Date | Poor Man’s Covered Calls | Original Price | Current Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | Premium Sold | Closing Price | Total Premium | Total Return | Position Delta |
| Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) | $189.65 | $192.69 | (open) | (current) | (closed) | ||||||
| 6/15/2022 | LEAPS January 19, 2024 145 call | $54.50 | $56.60 | $2.10 | 85 | ||||||
| 6/15/2022 | July 15, 2022 198 call | $2.50 | $0.03 | $2.47 | |||||||
| 7/14/2022 | August 19, 2022 193 call | $3.20 | $11.00 | ($7.80) | |||||||
| 7/28/2022 | September 16, 2022 210 call | $2.95 | $0.30 | $2.65 | |||||||
| 9/1/2022 | October 21, 2022 205 call | $3.00 | $0.55 | $2.45 | |||||||
| 9/22/2022 | October 21, 2022 197 call | $2.10 | $0.15 | $1.95 | |||||||
| 10/12/2022 | November 18, 2022 190 call | $3.10 | $7.45 | ($4.35) | |||||||
| 11/10/2022 | December 16, 2022 205 call | $2.65 | $0.05 | $2.60 | |||||||
| 12/15/2022 | January 20, 2023 200 call | $3.10 | $1.85 | $3.10 | -28 | ||||||
| Totals | $19.50 | $59.67 | 57 | ||||||||
| Transaction Date | Poor Man’s Covered Calls | Original Price | Current Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | LEAPS Price | Premium Sold | Closing Price | Total Premium | Total Return | Position Delta |
| iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) | $110.56 | $107.11 | (open) | (current) | (closed) | ||||||
| 6/13/2022 | LEAPS January 19, 2024 85 call | $29.10 | $25.70 | ($3.40) | 80 | ||||||
| 6/13/2022 | July 15, 2022 114 call | $1.65 | $2.58 | ($0.93) | |||||||
| 6/30/2022 | August 19, 2022 119 call | $1.95 | $0.23 | $1.72 | |||||||
| 8/11/2022 | September 16, 2022 119 call | $1.16 | $0.10 | $1.06 | |||||||
| 9/1/2022 | October 21, 2022 115 call | $1.42 | $0.23 | $1.19 | |||||||
| 9/22/2022 | October 21, 2022 110.5 call | $0.73 | $0.03 | $0.70 | |||||||
| 10/12/2022 | November 25, 2022 104.5 call | $1.66 | $0.10 | $1.56 | |||||||
| 11/10/2022 | December 16, 2022 100 call | $1.46 | $2.90 | ($1.44) | |||||||
| 11/22/2022 | December 16, 2022 103.5 call | $1.30 | $3.15 | ($1.85) | |||||||
| 12/2/2022 | January 20, 2023 109 call | $1.82 | $2.02 | $1.82 | -41 | ||||||
| Totals | $13.15 | $29.53 | 39 |
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.