Not too much to report this week as we simply allow our August positions to erode in value, which as options premium sellers is a good thing. We enter earnings season this week, so I fully expect to add several positions to the portfolio over the coming weeks. We currently have six open position with the intent of getting up between eight and 10.

So far, so good this earnings season.

We’ve had three successful one-day trades … 8.0% in JPM, 6.4% in IBM and more recently 5.4% in V.

Earnings announcements continue this week with a long list of more well-known blue-chip stocks due to announce. As I stated on our call last Friday, I hope to make at least two trades this week. During each earnings cycle we aim to make somewhere between 8 to 12 trades and given the opportunities ahead I don’t see any reason why we wouldn’t fall within our typical range.

As earnings season approaches the midway point, and following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25-basis point interest rate hike last week, the market continued its ascent. For the week the S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow rose by 0.65% and the Nasdaq added 2%.

As earnings season approaches the midway point, and following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25-basis point interest rate hike last week, the market continued its ascent. For the week the S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow rose by 0.65% and the Nasdaq added 2%.

The big-picture outlook with the market hasn’t changed, with all of our key market timing indicators bullish, many studies pointing to higher prices down the road and leaders--even those that have taken hits--showing little abnormal action. That said, near-term, the odds are growing we may see more choppy trading, if not a pullback of some sort, so we’re not pushing the envelope here and are ditching names that crack. Earlier this week, that meant selling one position, and today, we’re selling another, leaving us with 28% in cash.

To be clear, the odds still favor the next big move being up, so we’re aiming to put some money to work in new leadership that emerges on earnings, or current leadership that pulls in to support. For now, though, we’ll hold the cash and see how earnings season progresses.

Elsewhere in tonight’s issue, we go over a few new ideas, with the biggest write-up being what could be the #1 AI platform play (not picks and shovels, but actual platform) out there. It’s on our watch list.

The Federal Reserve resumed lifting interest rates Wednesday with a quarter-percentage-point increase that brings interest rates to a 22-year high. The decision was unanimous.

The benchmark federal funds rate will go to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% as the Fed continues its fight against inflation. This is the 11th increase since March 2022, when rates were near zero.

Inflation has already retreated from a four-decade high last summer and the consumer-price index was up 3% in June year over year which is much lower than the June 2022 peak of 9.1%.

Politicians in Washington, D.C. let cannabis investors down once again.

Commentary from lobbyists and Senators had suggested the Senate banking committee might make progress on cannabis sector banking reform (allowing banks to work with companies) in late July.

That turned out not to be the case. I cautioned at the time that a risk here is that the actions of politicians are hard to predict. But it was worth having exposure, in case there actually was progress on so-called SAFE banking, which seemed possible at the time.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the August 2023 issue.

In this letter, we include our Mid-Year 2023 updates for our stock market and high yield bond market outlooks. After being totally wrong with our stock market outlook for 2023, what do we see for the rest of the year, and why? We were nearly spot-on with our high yield bond market outlook. How does this market look to us now?

Our feature recommendation this month is Kopin Corporation (KOPN), an obscure optical display company that previously was run like a hobby by a brilliant scientist. Its primary output was a chronic stream of operating losses and share offerings that heavily diluted its investors. Now, under completely new leadership, the company is being run like a for-profit commercial enterprise with a vast market opportunity ahead.

Ahead of the long holiday weekend the market had yet another good week. The S&P 500 gained 1.75%, the Dow rallied 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose another 1.9%.

This week in an attempt to diversify the portfolio we are adding an energy play.

The population is aging. And it’s aging at warp speed. People 50 years of age and older now comprise a third of the U.S. population. The fastest growing segment of the population is 65 and older as an average of 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every single day. And it’s not just this country – aging is a global phenomenon.

We don’t know how sticky inflation will be or what the Fed will do. We don’t know if there will be a recession this year or next year or what the recovery will look like, or who will be the next president. But we do know that the population is shifting and companies on the receiving end of the torrent of dollars that will flow as a result should benefit mightily.

In this issue, I highlight another new stock to buy. This stock is cheap with strong momentum and properties that should help it perform well in any kind of market. It’s a healthcare stock ahead of a huge megatrend, the aging population.

Investing with the tailwind of a megatrend makes it so much easier to make a successful investment. It makes mediocre stocks great and good stocks one of your best investments ever.

After a non-stop run for two-plus months, we’re finally seeing a bit of sloppiness in the Nasdaq and some growth stocks that have had huge runs— combining the recent action with the fact that the advance has been going on 12 weeks and earnings season is upon us, and further stumbles are certainly possible in growth. All that said, it’s been more about rotation than outright selling, as the broad market has actually picked up steam, and none of this alters our big-picture bullish thoughts, as the top-down evidence remains overwhelmingly positive. Put it together, and we’re still bullish, but we’ll pull in our Market Monitor a notch to a level 7 to reflect some of the near-term wobbles.

This week’s list reflects the market action, with more non-tech names, be it cyclical plays, drug firms or even a bull market-related business. Our Top Pick is a bull market stock that has just come alive after a long bottoming effort.

The bull market keeps rolling along, though both the Fed and a busy, star-studded earnings slate could provide a couple speed bumps this week. Still, I wouldn’t bet against this market right now, at least not in the intermediate or long term, so today we’re adding another high-upside pick. It’s a mid-cap software stock that’s trading well below its post-IPO highs, but that has built up a full head of steam the last two-plus months. It’s a new addition from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon.

Details inside.

It remains a very weak market, and there are plenty of reasons to remain skeptical of near-term improvement. We’re still under the moving averages and the bearish trendline from November’s peak. Greentech and the broader technology sector (the Nasdaq 100) are both sitting just over areas of technical support that would probably signal a fresh round of sharp sell-offs if breached. For Greentech, a 10% drop here would test the pre-pandemic, nine-year high.

Although it’s already a bear market, there is a good chance that stocks fall to new lows before the market recovers.

The broader S&P 500 hit a low in mid-June on recession fears resulting from persistent high inflation and the Fed’s aggressive actions to tame it. The market has since bounced off the lows, but the issues that drove the market to those lows haven’t really improved.

As a practitioner in the investing world, I find theoretical debates to be sometimes interesting but usually not highly applicable to my work. This mirrors a favorite saying of mine, attributable to Albert Einstein: “In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not.”

Based on resilient price action and cumulative strong earnings reports, we are purchasing another 2.5% stake in Okta, Inc (OTKA). Increasing our total position to 5% of the equity portfolio. We will continue to build a position in this name. From a technical perspective, we look for tradable stocks that are building a strong base, forming a cup and handle pattern. Furthermore, in my experience, stocks and cryptocurrencies breaking above their 21-day moving averages on volume can run.

With earnings season starting next week, few if any companies had much to say this past week. We had no companies reporting earnings this past week and only one provided news of any note.

So, we delve briefly into cryptocurrencies and more deeply into the fascinating financial, strategic and governance train wreck that is Wayfair (W).



Next Friday, Wells Fargo (WFC) reports earnings, and Mattel (MAT) and Nokia (NOK) report the following week. Then, the earnings deluge starts with 13 companies reporting during the week of July 24th.

The indexes had a good day, with growth stocks and the broad market doing even better. When the closing bell rang, the Dow was up 347 points while the Nasdaq was up 259 points.

The market has moved off the lows of last month. But stocks really aren’t going anywhere.
The problem is recession. An increasing number of economists are calling for a recession in the next year as the Fed aggressively raises rates and pulls back stimulus in an effort to tame this high and persistent inflation. Stocks are already at least partially pricing in a recession that may not even happen.

The first half results are in. The S&P 500 has had the worst first half since 1970. Not good.
All year long the market has grappled with the strong possibility that the Fed will have to induce a recession in order to tame the high and persistent inflation. There had been hope that a recession might be avoided. But recent evidence is indicating the recession scenario.

Not surprisingly with the holiday weekend, last week was a quiet week. And I bet this week will be quiet too.
But we did get some good news!

Conoco’s earnings report, released earlier today, displayed the company’s strengths. Fourth-quarter profits of $3.0 billion compared to a $(0.2) billion loss a year ago and were 25% higher than the impressive third-quarter profits of $2.4 billion. Rising oil prices combined with restrained spending helped drive earnings higher.

The shares of this medical device company have recently been upgraded at UBS to ‘Buy.’

The shares of this medical device company have recently been upgraded at UBS to ‘Buy.’

Xometry (XMTR) has just announced that preliminary Q4 revenue will be $65.5 - $67.5 million. This is in the range of what we expected when factoring in the $3.5 to $4.5 million of acquired revenue from the Thomas Publishing business. And it’s above management’s prior Q4 guidance of $60 - $62 million. Excluding the acquired revenue, growth was roughly 64.5%.

This fintech company is expected to grow at an annual rate of 27% over the next five years.

The shares of this mega beverage maker were recently upgraded by Guggenheim to ‘Buy.’ The company has a current annual dividend yield of 2.81%, paid quarterly.

The shares of this mega beverage maker were recently upgraded by Guggenheim to ‘Buy.’ The company has a current annual dividend yield of 2.81%, paid quarterly.

This has been another extremely challenging week. Yesterday the Nasdaq opened in the green and was up over 2% before selling off hard into the close. It ended down more than 1%. Today, the Nasdaq is toying with a somewhat key technical level at 14,000.

Yesterday was an ugly day as the Nasdaq got off to a good start and was up more than 2% then faded, with the selling accelerating into the close. The index ended the day down more than 1% and today is toying with the somewhat critical 14,000 level.

The market is getting hit again today, though some stocks are trying to put up a fight. As of 12 am EST, the Dow is down 80 points and the Nasdaq is off another 134 points.

2022 has gotten off to a rough start for the bulls as growth stocks have gone through a mini-crash, and of late the selling has moved to the rest of the market. Whether this is the start of a real market correction, or simply a normal pullback, is anyone’s guess. Regardless, because we are selling calls to lower our breakeven on our stock purchases, the Profit Booster portfolio has held up much better than the overall market.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.