Ahead of a big week for the market, the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all rose marginally last week.

Ahead of a big week for the market, the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all rose marginally last week.

The markets traded sideways through most of April. But since then, the choppiness has returned—along with worries about the uncertainty regarding the debt ceiling, the expiration of the immigration-limiting legislation, and ongoing debate about the possibility of a recession.

Yet, economically speaking, the trends are still healthy. Manufacturing has held up, employment continues to rise, and job openings are still underutilized (as you can tell if you’ve been in a restaurant lately!).

For the first time in weeks, and maybe even months, the market’s advance felt broader as more and more stocks participated in the market rally. That, as well as the VIX getting clobbered, has me encouraged … for now.

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The market finished solidly in the black thanks to a strong end to last week; interestingly, while the intermediate-term trend is still neutral overall, a couple of broad up days from here could kick it into the green. Even better is the action of leading stocks, with more names emerging and, importantly, more names holding their recent upmoves. To be clear, there’s still a lot of proving to do, but overall, we think the evidence has taken another step in the right direction—we’ll move up our Market Monitor to a level 6 and see what comes from here.

This week’s list has a ton of strong names and other good setups that could lift should the market continue to improve. Our Top Pick looks like the leader of the improving cybersecurity group, having lifted out of a long consolidation. Dips should be buyable.

Stocks are the highest they’ve been since last summer, and with the debt ceiling in the rear-view mirror and the Fed sounding less hawkish these days, it’s possible they could keep rising as we enter Summer 2023. One sector that’s been unstoppable of late is artificial intelligence, so today we add some more AI exposure, which has already served us well with the performance of Microsoft (MSFT). The new addition is a lesser-known name but is equally red-hot. Mike Cintolo recently recommended it to his Cabot Top Ten Trader audience.

The market continued to rally this week and as a result, the probability of success on our positions moved slightly lower. That being said, both of our open trades still have a favorable probability of success. Our IWM iron condor sits at approximately 76% (tested side) and our QQQ bear call currently stands at a probability of success of better than 81%. Of course, anything can happen with 47 days left until our positions are due to expire on July 21.

The June 16, 2023 expiration cycle is nearing and we have several positions due to expire. While I intend, as always, to stay mechanical and allow our KO and GDX puts positions to play out, I do plan on buying back our PFE 40 calls this week and immediately selling more call premium.

We are firmly in the doldrums of earnings season for the next few weeks, but that doesn’t mean we will not be presented with an opportunity or two each week. While last week was slow, this week picks up, slightly with a potential opportunity in DocuSign (DOCU).


While I could really care less about the fundamental aspects of the company and the upcoming earnings announcement, the high implied volatility (IV) piques my interest. Though I am not a fan of chasing high IV stocks, I am a fan of highly liquid stocks that have highly inflated premium around earnings.

For the first time in weeks, and maybe even months, the markets advance felt broader, as more and more stocks participated in the market rally. That, as well as the VIX getting clobbered, has me encouraged … for now.

For the first time in weeks, and maybe even months, the markets advance felt broader, as more and more stocks participated in the market rally. That, as well as the VIX getting clobbered, has me encouraged … for now.

In our view, the best, quality assets bottomed last week. After months of heavy selling across a myriad of asset classes, BITO is up 10% today on heavy volume. We reiterate this ETF as a BUY and feel this is an attractive entry point to own Bitcoin.
In the coming months, we expect to be more aggressive in our portfolio allocation, gaining exposure to high-quality U.S. equities and crypto assets. The multi-month decline in prices have increased the expected return of these assets.

With the gold price just slightly above its lowest level of the year, it has been difficult to be upbeat on the gold mining stocks.

The PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU), the industry benchmark for the actively traded North American miners, is also near a multi-month low and still below its 50-day moving average. In fact, almost every actively traded U.S.-listed gold stock is under the 50-day line—a feat seldom achieved except in the most voracious of bear markets.

In this week’s update, I’ll focus on how ETFs are responding to the Federal Reserve minutes, released last week. These kindled some optimism in the stock market, as you see here on a chart of the S&P 500. One reason for the market uptick? The Fed gave no surprises, and the market doesn’t like surprises!

This week’s Friday Update includes a summary of the recent Cabot Turnaround Letter, and comments on earnings at Macy’s (M). We also summarize the podcast and include The Catalyst Report.

After a rough week last week small caps have bounced back over the last two sessions and have the potential to close at a three-week high today. I’d like to see the S&P 600 Index close back above 1230 (at 1224 now) before turning more bullish.

The market is having one of its better days in a few weeks—as of 2 pm ET, the Dow is up 578 points and the Nasdaq is up 329 points

It’s a bear market and there’s a lot of confusion among the various pundits about what’s next. As tempting as it may be to say we’ve hit bottom and are rebounding, it’s just too risky right now to say so. When things get confusing and sentiment swings too much one way or the other, I like to simplify my decision process.
For Greentech, I’m looking at where prices are relative to the 200-day moving average, my favorite gauge of long-term sentiment, as well as the 40-day average, which is quick enough to suggest a turnaround while filtering out near-term noise.

It’s one step forward and two steps back in this crummy market.
The indexes seem to stage an impressive rally at some point every week. But the S&P 500 has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, the longest such streak since 2001. It came within a whisker of a bear market (down 20% from the high on a closing basis) before the latest temporary rally on Monday.

The S&P 500 has almost officially entered a bear market. The somewhat arbitrary definition of a bear market is a 20% decline. The S&P 500 peaked on January 3, 2022 at 4,797. Therefore, if the Index closes at or below 3,837, we will officially be in a bear market.

The media, including highly reputable sources like Bloomberg, Barron’s and The Wall Street Journal, have written that “real” interest rates are now positive. As such, they imply that the Fed’s interest rate policy is already restrictive and so interest rates may not need to be raised much more. Our view is that the journalists are mistaken.

With Friday’s action in the broad market undercutting the prior May 12 low, we have a clear signal that the uncertainty is continuing. That’s despite the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rallying to end the session above their earlier lows.

As I noted in a Cabot Wealth Daily article last week, we’re at a unique juncture in the investment markets. Friday’s action underscores that point.

According to a recent study published by the Federal Reserve, 12% of U.S. adults have used cryptocurrency as either an investment or a way to transact in 2021. This number has increased from the prior year, when only 5% of the population were counted as users.

One of our most bullish theses is the continuation of user adoption. More people globally will turn to cryptocurrency as both a medium of exchange and as an investment.

The market started out lower this morning after a worse-than-expected jobs report. As of 11:30 am, the Dow is down just 14 points, but the Nasdaq is off 130 points and growth-oriented indexes are down another 1% to 2%.

This Top Pick is a perennial investor favorite, especially for the annual dividend of 7.50%, which is paid quarterly.

ESS Tech (GWH) closed below our sell-stop yesterday and isn’t bouncing today. We recommend selling.

This travel-focused tech company just separated its CEO and President roles to help strengthen the company in preparation for the winding down of the pandemic. The company’s earnings are forecast to grow by more than 70% next year.

Growth stocks are continuing on their path lower so far today while some cyclical stocks perk up—as of 12:15 EST, the Dow is up 115 points but the Nasdaq is down 155 points and most growth stocks are off much more than that.

The shares of this gold miner are now in 33 hedge funds’ portfolio. The shares have a current annual dividend yield of 2.63%, paid quarterly.

Two days into 2022 and we’re seeing another round of selling in growth names, especially software, fintech, medical devices and e-commerce. Many names are retesting their November and/or December lows. We have seen a few names crack their 200-day lines, while a few others have begun to rebound intra-day.

Two days into 2022 and we’re seeing another round of selling in growth names, especially software, fintech, medical devices and e-commerce. Many names are retesting their November and/or December lows. We have seen a few names crack their 200-day lines, while a few others have begun to rebound intra-day.

This payments company is expected to grow at an annual rate of almost 18% over the next five years.

We’re going to kick off the first trading day of 2022 by taking profits in a few names.

This food producer is a good turnaround candidate, with double-digit earnings expected next year.

Earnings estimates have been boosted by 13 analysts for this automaker.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.