We are on the downside of earnings season, but there are still a few opportunities ahead. Early this week, Lowe’s (LOW) is due to announce earnings. Per usual, I’ve gone over an example in the “Trade Ideas” section and this week I’ve highlighted Lowe’s. The stock is coming into earnings with a decent IV rank (49.8) and an opportunity to create a fairly wide range around the expected move for the stock (224-241) while maintaining a nice premium. Moreover, the premium is decent enough to where we have the ability to widen the range even more while again bringing in a decent premium.

After we locked in a 17.1% gain in DKNG two weeks ago, we managed to lock in a fairly pedestrian 1.1% in XLU and 1.1% in KO.

The recent gains in XLU and KO, however, pushed our total return to all-time highs and a not-so-pedestrian 145.65%. I plan to continue our wheel-based approach in both XLU and KO early this week and plan to add a new ticker to the portfolio as well. Stay tuned!

Despite some heavy selling pressures early in the week, the market rallied to close the week following Nvidia’s (NVDA) blowout earnings report that highlighted the growth potential of AI. By week’s end the S&P 500 had gained 1.2%, while the Dow rose marginally and the Nasdaq fell slightly.

Despite some heavy selling pressures early in the week, the market rallied to close the week following Nvidia’s (NVDA) blowout earnings report that highlighted the growth potential of AI. By week’s end the S&P 500 had gained 1.2%, while the Dow rose marginally and the Nasdaq fell slightly.

The market had an excellent snap back today, which was good to see, but we’re still playing things a bit near-term cautiously for now—many leaders have suffered some distribution after good runs (and after some yellow flags near the turn of the month). Tonight, we’re holding some strong names, but also about one-third in cash, waiting a couple more days to see if today really does put in a low for most leaders.

Big picture, though, we remain quite optimistic—we’re certainly not looking to raise more cash if we can help it (we do have three names reporting next week), and we could put some cash back to work very soon if things hold up. Stay tuned.

As traders grappled with the moves in the bond market last week (expectations of rate cuts coming soon have faded), the market moved violently day-to-day, though big picture the indexes were mixed. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.35%, the Dow was mostly unchanged, and the Nasdaq had lost 1%.

In the February issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we take something of a barbell approach, reviewing a couple of phenomenal large-cap stocks poised for the next big chapter of their lives while also uncovering a handful of much smaller companies, one of which is just getting its business off the ground (literally)!

As always, there’s something for everybody!

The trends of the indexes remain up and the leading growth stocks remain firm, although many big tech names are showing signs of entering what appears to be an overdue pullback.

Volatility is also on the rise and a classic split tape environment is emerging, with some sectors weakening while others show strength. We’re keeping a weather eye out for any sudden changes, continuing to hold our winners, building some cash, but also taking advantage of recent sector rotation. This week’s Top Pick is a name making waves in the app publishing market while also harnessing the power of AI to grow its customer base.

Stocks have finally hit a speed bump, retreating modestly in the last couple weeks. But pullbacks are both inevitable and healthy in the long run. And the latest one offers an opportunity to buy some great companies at more attractive prices. So today, we add perhaps February’s hottest stock – after it’s been knocked down more than 8% in the last two trading days. I’m betting it’ll bounce back, and so is Mike Cintolo, who recently recommended the stock to his Cabot Top Ten Trader readers.

We remained on the sidelines last week and by the looks of what is on the earnings calendar this week, we might be sitting on the sidelines again this week. No worries, our patient approach continues to serve us well. I say this because this earnings cycle has been one of the most volatile in years. More active earnings traders have struggled while those that have remained patient, waiting for real opportunities to arise, have been rewarded. And while my goal is to make 8 to 10 trades per earnings season, sometimes we just don’t get there and that’s OK. Successful trading has always been about quality, not quantity. Who cares how many trades one places, if success isn’t a direct byproduct?

Nvidia (NVDA) is due to announce this week and has the chance to significantly move the market over the short-term. We have two positions that are both bearish-leaning at the moment, so a short-term move to the downside would be welcome. However, if that doesn’t occur, no worries, as long as we the market doesn’t rally significantly higher. If it does, we will need to adjust or close out our SPY iron condor. Shortly after the NVDA announcement I intend to add several new positions to the mix.

We locked in a 17.1% gain in DKNG at expiration on Friday. The gain in DKNG and GDX pushed our total return to all-time highs at 143.5%. I plan to continue our wheel-based approach in DKNG by selling puts early last week. As for GDX, we bought back our calls and sold more calls the week before (2/12).

Hopefully, we have the opportunity to add to our total with two trades due to expire at the end of this week. We sold puts in XLU and KO in mid-January and as it stands, both look to expire out-of-the-money. Of course, we need to see how the week plays out, but given our income wheel approach, with the exception of a crash, we are perfectly fine with whatever occurs. Our ultimate goal is to bring in options premium in a continual basis.

This is, dare I say, a good market.

The S&P 500 is up 11.31% YTD, and the year isn’t even half over. Stocks have rallied more than 20% from the October low. The index is within bad breath distance of last summer’s high. The S&P is only 10% below the all-time high.

Why is the market so strong? There are several reasons. Inflation is coming down. The Fed is almost done hiking rates. And there is no recession. Throw in a booming artificial intelligence business and you have a rising market.

This week, I wanted to share a few charts before getting into my weekly update.

The first chart shows the amazing valuation discrepancy between small stocks and large-cap stocks.

Mega-cap stocks are trading at a PE ratio of 29.4x while small-cap stocks are trading at a 12.8x.

The economy is showing some mixed signals. But it certainly does not appear to be near a recession now. That could change. But it keeps not coming.


At the same time, the Fed is near the end of the rate hiking cycle. Sure, there’s speculation about another rate hike in the June meeting or the next one. But it is still close to the end of the hiking cycle. Inflation appears to be moderating (for now). Unless there is a big surprise with that number, the market can soon stop worrying about the Fed.

This week, we comment on earnings from Duluth Holdings (DLTH) and Macy’s (M).

We also include the Catalyst Report and a summary of the June edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday. We encourage you to look through the Catalyst Report. This report is a listing of all of the companies that have reported a catalyst in the past month. These catalysts include new CEOs, activist activity, spin-offs and other possible game-changers. We source many of our feature recommendations from this list. You will find it nowhere else on Wall Street.

The technology sector is on fire. Before the market opened on Tuesday, the sector was up 5% for the past week, 15% for the last month, and 34% YTD. It’s also up more than 2% on Tuesday. What happened?


The outlook for many sector stocks greatly improved last Thursday. AI, or artificial intelligence, had been seen as a huge growth engine going forward as companies invest heavily in the technology. Those growth projections got a huge shot of adrenaline and the AI phenomenon got real when semiconductor company Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings last week.

These days, AI, or artificial intelligence, is the buzzword du jour.

And it’s easy to understand why.

Play around with ChatGPT, and you will find it to be an incredibly helpful tool.

Longer-term subscribers are no doubt familiar with our immense patience with beleaguered discount retailer Big Lots (BIG). Its shares initially sagged due to bloated inventory, similar to other more highly regarded retailers like Target and Walmart, leading to our initial recommendation. We had expected that its earnings would be weakened as it offloaded its excess goods at sizeable discounts, but also that it would ultimately work its way out of its difficult but by no means impossible situation. At the time, Big Lots had a cash-heavy, nearly debt-free balance sheet, was generating positive free cash flow and traded at a depressed 3x EV/EBITDA multiple. What could go wrong?

Last week was a big week in the market. Game-changing news in the technology sector that significantly improves future earnings projections for many companies is causing the sector to soar.


AI or artificial intelligence had been seen as a huge growth engine going forward as companies invest heavily in the technology. Those growth projections got a huge shot of adrenaline and the AI phenomenon got real when semiconductor company Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings and guidance that blew the doors off expectations because of much higher investment and spending in the technology than previously thought.

This week’s note includes our comments on earnings from Kohl’s (KSS). Macy’s (M) and Duluth Holdings’ (DLTH) report on June 1. Please note that the monthly edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter will be published on Wednesday, May 31, and the Catalyst Report will be published on Friday, June 2.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay tuned. The market remains very narrow, with a few powerful stocks but the vast, vast majority of names either in no man’s land or acting poorly. For potential leaders, we see many that had been perking up before running into a wall this week—but not (yet) selling off abnormally. If these names can hold soon and resume their upmoves, we’ll like to add at least a couple (maybe more) to the Model Portfolio. Tonight, though, given the extreme narrowness of the advance, we’ll grit our teeth and sit tight, holding about three-quarters in cash and see if these potential leaders can get moving.

The market was looking pretty good through last week. Then this week, with no meaningful progress on the debt ceiling, momentum has deteriorated.


Yesterday afternoon U.S. House Speaker McCarthy was on a roll, saying that things are going a little better, that he won’t put a bill on the floor that spends more than last year and that the President is realizing he has to spend less.



JPMorgan says they put the odds of no debt ceiling deal by early June at around 25% and rising.

The Explorer had a good week with Butterfly (BFLY) up 15% and Solid Power (SLDP) up 10% this week. The S&P 500 has risen 8% in 2023 but the market gains are very narrow and concentrated, with the top five stocks accounting for most of the gains.

It’s time to start selling puts again in GDX. We’ve managed to bring in 10.8% worth of premium since introducing GDX to the Income Wheel Portfolio.

The recent rally in the Dow has pushed several of our Dog stocks higher. As a result, several of our short calls are being tested and the overall deltas of those tested positions are nearing parity.

I am buying back our short calls today and immediately selling more premium. The underlying stock position is up 4.07% since we initiated the position. Our DOW position is up 6.17% over the same time frame.

INTC has pushed through our 31 call strike, and the delta of our short call is nearing parity with our current LEAPS contract. As a result, I want to buy back our short calls and sell more calls.

Our March 31, 2023, 59 puts are essentially worthless. As a result, I want to lock in the profits and immediately sell more premium.

As a reminder, this trade is for the CVX position in the Growth/Value Portfolio, not the CVX position that resides in our Dogs of the Dow Portfolio. I have a CVX position in both, as both portfolios are looked at as separate entities to keep things mechanical and consistent.

With 24 days left until expiration, we have the ability to take off our SPY iron condor for a nice profit.

INTC has pushed through our 27 call strike, and the delta of our short call now stands at parity with our current LEAPS contract. As a result, I want to buy back our short calls and sell more calls. Reestablishing our deltas will allow us to participate in any further near-term upside in INTC.

With the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) trading for 172.95, I want to place a short-term iron condor going out 57 days. As always, my intent is to take off the trade well before the May 19, 2023, expiration date.

Our BITO March 31, 2023 puts are essentially worthless, so we can lock in some decent profits and immediately sell more puts.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

We need to roll our short calls in TIP prior to expiration. However, I intend on allowing our DBC short calls to expire worthless and sell more premium at the onset of next week.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.