Stocks cooled off this past week, though they mostly held their gains, which is not a bad way to close out an unusually productive September. Investors can likely thank the Fed for that. But many potential landmines (presidential election, escalating tensions in the Middle East, another jobs report this week) loom, so we’ll see how things go as we enter an uncertain October.

Given all the uncertainty, today we add a large-cap value stock that I recently recommended in my Cabot Value Investor portfolio. It’s one of the largest banks in America, and it’s potentially on the cusp of getting much bigger. Last year, it caught the attention of Warren Buffett. And so far, his bet on it appears to be paying off – with more upside ahead.

Details inside.

It was a mostly quiet week for the market, which isn’t terribly surprising as traders have moved past the Federal Reserve event and inch towards the election. By week’s end the S&P 500 had gained 0.4%, the Dow had rallied 0.5% and the Nasdaq had fallen 0.55%.

It was a mostly quiet week for the market, which isn’t terribly surprising as traders have moved past the Federal Reserve event and inch towards the election. By week’s end the S&P 500 had gained 0.4%, the Dow had rallied 0.5% and the Nasdaq had fallen 0.55%.

The MSCI World Index now has a remarkable 72% market value weighting in U.S. stocks.

In other words, 72% of the market value of stocks trading around the world represent companies headquartered in America.

This begs the question: Should investors be this concentrated in a single market?

Cannabis investors remain in a depressed state, despite several potentially bullish developments that could move stocks in the sector up significantly over the next year.

For much of the last two years, the white-hot semiconductor space was the industry group least likely to yield any meaningful turnaround candidates. But that dynamic changed following this summer’s tech sector sell-off, which brought many of the previously high-flying chip stocks back to earth (or at least further away from the firmament).

A new era has begun.

Most of the last two years have been an environment of rising and high interest rates and technology sector dominance. Now, we are entering a period of falling interest rates and a slowing economy. The new stage will bring different winners and losers.

The previously beleaguered interest rate-sensitive stocks and defensive stocks ignited and began to lead the overall market higher as technology pulled back. Since the summer, this new trend has been confirmed. And it is unlikely to be a mere short-term gyration but rather the beginning of a new environment that should last for some time.

In this issue, I highlight a great monthly income stock. The yield is massive, and it provides a high income in an uncertain market. The stock also can provide great price performance when the interest rate cycle goes its way. This point in the cycle provides a great opportunity to get a high income and total return on the right side of a pronounced market shift ahead.

Aided by a strong week for the market following the Federal Reserve interest rate cut, our three September covered calls (SFM, CPNG, SG) expired for profits ranging from 4.62% - 6.25%.

This week we turn our attention to the October expiration cycle via a covered call sale in a grocery delivery play that is breaking out to new highs.

Between the late-July/early-August market plunge and the relatively sharp post-Labor Day selloff, more than a few weak hands were likely kicked out of their positions. That paved the way for the past two weeks, which have been very encouraging, with the major indexes certainly improving and with many of those same leaders acting well, including a bunch that moved to new high ground. It’s all to the good, though a lot of the same flies in the ointment that we’ve written about are still out there, too. There’s definitely more good than bad out there, but we continue to pick our spots. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7 today.

This week’s list has something for everyone, from high-tech to infrastructure to stocks leveraged to asset prices. Our Top Pick is a potential liquid leader that, after a few months of choppy action, looks to have finally broken out on the upside.

Our national high-interest-rate nightmare is over, as the Fed has (finally) started slashing short-term rates in a big way, cutting by 50 basis points last week. The market likes the aggression, sending two of the three major indexes to new all-time highs. Is it the beginning of a new – and more egalitarian – leg of the bull market? Could be. Regardless, let’s strike while the iron is hot, adding shares of the leading company in one of the hottest new U.S. markets: sports betting. It’s a recent recommendation from Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory.

Details inside.

As I noted last week, because of family travel this Monday’s update is focused on our open positions. Let’s dive in …

As I noted last week, because of family travel this Monday’s update is focused on our open positions. Let’s dive in …

With the market on track to post a very nice gain in November, it’s been a good time to just sit back and let most stocks do their thing. Much of this move has been driven by lower yields and peak Fed chatter, with inflation and economic data largely supporting the disinflation and soft-landing scenario.

Whether or not the Fed will ultimately begin to cut rates next spring/early summer remains to be seen, but that’s what the market is currently expecting. We’ll now look to the December 12/13 FOMC meeting (last of the year) for Jerome Powell to repeat his “not thinking about thinking about cuts” shtick.

Many analysts now expect a “Goldilocks scenario,” with the economy growing nicely but not too fast. This would mean that the Fed does not need to worry about raising interest rates further to combat inflation. Good news for stocks.

I would like to clarify there are two reasons that I remove a stock as an Explorer recommendation. When I recommend a stock, I expect that it will deliver appreciation and dividends over the long haul unless I highlight that it is a more of a short-term trading opportunity.

The strong November rally has sputtered out with the S&P 500 up 8.7% for the month so far. Is that the end of this upside leg?

The month started with a bang after the Fed indicated it was done hiking rates, and jobs and inflation numbers seemed to confirm Wall Street’s opinion that interest rates have peaked. The benchmark ten-year Treasury tumbled all the way from 5% at the end of October to 4.34% at midday on Tuesday.

The strong November rally slowed down last week but it’s still very much alive. The S&P 500 closed last week up 8.7% for the month and the good times might continue.

The current belief in peak interest rates and a “soft landing” has investors still in an optimistic mood. The VIX, known as the market’s fear gauge, hit the lowest level since January 2020 last week. Any piece of good news could ignite a further rally with the current kindling.

The best poker players usually are stone-faced. That means that they show no emotions, make no unusual or unplanned moves, and most important, have no “tells.” A “tell” is any change in a player’s behavior, attitude or other actions that indicate the strength of the cards they hold in their hand. Common tells are changes in their chatter, eye contact, twitches and frequency of checking their hole cards.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to put money to work, albeit in a step-by-step fashion. From a top-down perspective, our market timing indicators continue to improve, with all three of our key measures (Trend Lines, Tides, Two-Second) now positive. Individual growth stocks are acting well, though many are still repairing the damage of the past few months. Thus, we’re optimistic, but want to see continued improvement to pull us into a heavily invested position. In the Model Portfolio today, we’re going to buy a half-sized position in Arista Networks (ANET) and add another 3% stake to Duolingo (DUOL), leaving us with around 44% in cash.

Wall Street has decided that interest rates have peaked. And the market loves it. The S&P 500 is up 8.4% so far this month and has made up most of the decline of the prior three months.

A quick reminder that Cabot will be closed tomorrow and Friday for Thanksgiving. I hope you have a great holiday and enjoy a break from the market.

Most stocks produce lackluster returns. A recent study¹ by Hendrick Bessembinder, a professor at Arizona State University’s WP Carey School of Business, looked at U.S. stock market returns from 1926 to 2022. Nearly 60% of all stocks detracted from shareholder value during this time period. From 1926 to 2016, half of the total wealth created in the stock market was produced by only 90 stocks. By 2022, the number was only 72 stocks.

This week’s note includes our comments on earnings from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Macy’s (M), Tyson Foods (TSN) and Vodafone (VOD). The earnings season is winding down, with Kohl’s (KSS) reporting next Tuesday (Nov. 21) and Duluth Holdings (DLTH) reporting on November 30.

Cabot Options Institute Quant Trader is focused exclusively on creating consistent returns using high-probability options strategies including bear call spreads, bull put spreads, iron condors and more. Whether you have questions about the strategies, or even about setting up your account, or how to make your own trades, Andy will answer all of your questions

There have been a lot of interesting developments in the market over the past week, with the lower-than-expected inflation reading and resulting speculation over the Fed’s next move right near the top of the list.

As it stands now, the market is saying no more Fed rate hikes, and even that we’ll see two cuts by next July.

Frankly, that seems a bit aggressive.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is quiet today, and while the possibility of a near-term pullback in growth stocks is growing, the big-picture evidence remains in good shape. Today, though, we are pulling the plug on Inspire Medical (INSP), which hasn’t been able to get going and today is cracking support on big volume. We’ll sell our half position and hold the cash.

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

While the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 200 are down on the day, the Dow is up on the day. As a result, our Dogs and Small Dogs portfolios are benefitting greatly, as seven out of the ten positions are up on the day.


We still have a few July positions to roll forward and several underlying stocks that have recently pushed above their short call strikes. So, the plan is to buy back our short calls, where needed, and immediately sell more premium. I’m going to start today with AMGN which is one of the few positions with July 21, 2023, calls.

I will be exiting the International Business Machines (IBM) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our subscriber-exclusive webinar at noon ET tomorrow, July 21.

Sell Terex (TEX)

We jumped into TEX four months ago on March 3, literally just a few days before the stock took a dive that ended up sending it 30% lower over the next few weeks. We held on and those of you that added shares along the way should have a much better return than the roughly 7% gain showing in our official portfolio. With so many growthier stocks acting well and TEX up over 50% from its April lows, I’m going to take the modest gain and boot it from our portfolio today. To be clear, I don’t hate TEX and think the bullish thesis I presented back in March still holds true. That said, the reality is there are just too many other stocks with better upside potential right now and I want to maintain concentration in those while taking down our market exposure ever so slightly through next week’s Fed meeting (our next Issue is due out in two weeks). SELL

Remember, as is always the case, risk management is the key to long-term success when using high-probability option strategies. It’s the only way to truly allow the law of large numbers to work in your favor. Don’t get greedy and enamored by the quick nature of these trades. Stay disciplined!

With the July 21, 2023, expiration cycle coming to a close in nine days, it’s time to start buying back our short calls and selling more premium going out 30 to 60 days. I’ll be sending out numerous trade alerts for the various portfolios over the next few days, including the potential for a few more new trades in our active portfolios.

With the July Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities coming out this Wednesday and the market acting extremely strong, we’re going to be opportunistic and lock in a few modest gains today.

With the July 21, 2023, expiration cycle coming to a close in nine days, it’s time to start buying back our short calls and selling more premium going out 30 to 60 days. I’ll be sending out numerous trade alerts for the various portfolios over the next few days, including the potential for a few more new trades in our active portfolios.

With the July 21, 2023, expiration cycle coming to a close in nine days, it’s time to start buying back our short calls and selling more premium going out 30 to 60 days. I’ll be sending out numerous trade alerts for the various portfolios over the next few days, including the potential for a few more new trades in our active portfolios.

Okay, everyone, earnings season is finally upon us. I suspect we are in for an interesting earnings season, and to get us started, I will be holding a subscriber-only webinar tomorrow at 12 p.m. ET. Click here to sign-up. No worries if you can’t make it, we archive everything here at Cabot. You can find all the archived recordings here.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.