Cabot Stock of the Week Issue: April 22, 2024

April showers bring May flowers? Let’s hope.

Yes, the April 2024 stock market has mirrored the weather here in my home state of Vermont: overcast, rainy, cold and with few signs of spring. But that’s a typical April in Vermont. And sharp downturns are fairly typical after the kind of rally (five straight months of gains!) we saw from November through March. What would not be common is if the bull market up and fizzled already. Considering stocks are barely higher today than they were at the end of 2021 – and on the heels of what was essentially a two-year bear market for growth stocks – I’m betting this is more a normal shakeout than a sudden about-face. Not with a resilient, recession-resistant economy and a Federal Reserve prepared to finally start cutting interest rates … at some point in the near future.

Pullbacks happen all the time, even in bull markets. This one has been especially painful. But I believe selling pressures will soon ease, and like the weather in Vermont, May will bring much sunnier, warmer days for investors.

In the meantime, let’s capitalize on one of the few sectors that’s actually working right now: gold. Gold prices are at all-time highs as investors have fled to safety due to the still-high interest rates and increasing geopolitical tensions. Several of our analysts are leaning into the gold rush, including Tyler Laundon, who added a new gold mining position to his Cabot Early Opportunities portfolio last week.

Here it is, with Tyler’s latest thoughts.

Alamos Gold (AGI)

Gold and precious metals mining stocks are prone to major boom and bust cycles and lately, both have been on the run higher.

Whether you want to attribute the rise to concerns about inflation, sovereign debt, geopolitical risks, supply/demand dynamics or whatever conspiracy theory floats your boat, the reality is precious metals stocks are on the move and the average investor is beginning to notice.

We’ll get involved today with Alamos Gold (AGI), a solid, low-risk (relatively) Canadian gold exploration, development and mining company with projects in mining-friendly locations.

Alamos has three operating mines; the Young-Davidson and Island mines in Ontario, Canada and the Mulatos mine in Sonora State, Mexico.

It is also developing a number of new mining properties, including the Lynn Lake project in Manitoba, Canada (production expected in 2028), the Kirazlı, Ağı Dağı and Camyurt projects in Turkey and the Quartz Mountain project in Oregon, U.S.

In 2024 the company expects to produce around 505,000 ounces (oz) of gold at a cost of around $1,150/oz. (current price of gold is about $2,375/oz.). Alamos is an efficient producer with the potential to drive production costs down by about 10% over the next two years.

While the company’s current assets and production profile are attractive enough to drive shares higher during a gold stock rally, the recent acquisition of Argonaut Gold is a nice little sweetener.

The main attraction with Argonaut is its flagship Magino mine, located just 300 meters from Alamos’ Island gold mine in Ontario.

Magino just started producing gold last summer, has an estimated 19-year reserve life and a new mill with capacity for 10,000 tonnes per day (tpd) now, with expansion potential.

This mill is expected to become the central mill for an expanded complex, allowing Alamos to decommission the old Island mill and operate a much more efficient, new mill with capacity for both Magino and Island.

Big picture, the Argonaut acquisition likely adds about 10% to gold production this year (total estimated production of 550,000 oz.), ramping up to an additional 20% in 2026 (660,000 oz.) and just north of 800,000 oz. by 2029.

While the price of gold is a huge variable to forward revenue and EPS estimates (and overall gold stock performance), current best guess is Alamos delivers revenue of $1.36 billion this year (+33%) then grows by about 10% in 2025.

With Argonaut wrapped in and efficiency gains, EPS could jump 80% to almost $0.93 this year then grow between 10% and 15% in 2025.

As for the stock, AGI has traded on the NYSE since 2004 so it’s been through several gold boom and bust cycles. Omitting the current rally, the last few periods of strength were in 2016, 2019-20 and late 2022 to mid-2023. The current rally followed a three-month drawdown (-25%) and began on March 1. It’s not a coincidence that AGI began to rally when the price of gold did. After the stock broke above 12 it paused just shy of 14 a couple weeks later, then rallied to the December 1 high of 15 at the end of March. Shares traded as high as 16 earlier this month but have now settled around 15. It’s a good entry point.

Current Recommendations

Changes Since Last Week:
CrowdStrike (CRWD) Moves from Buy to Hold
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Moves from Buy to Sell
ServiceNow (NOW) Moves from Buy to Sell
Uber Technologies (UBER) Moves from Buy to Hold

Two more stocks get kicked to the curb this week, bringing us to the doorstep of our goal of cutting the portfolio down to 25 stocks (we’re now at 26, with the addition of AGI). We’re also downgrading two other stocks to Hold, as it’s time to take a more cautious approach in the midst of some fierce April selling, particularly among growth stocks. Fortunately, we had some excellent gains heading into April, so the damage has mostly been limited in the grand scheme of things. Also, a few of our stocks are going against the market’s pessimistic grain, and are having a perfectly fine April.

Here’s what’s happening with all our stocks in a transitional week for the portfolio.

Updates

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Safe Income Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was down another 2% this week as interest and mortgage rate pessimism lingers. Here’s what Tom had to say about it in his latest update: “This one-of-a-kind life science property REIT continues to be at the mercy of the latest interest rate thinking, along with most other conservative dividend stocks. Since the recent leg of interest rate consensus has been negative, ARE has taken a hit. But I’m generally positive going forward as interest rates have likely already peaked. ARE is a great income stock selling at the low end of historical valuations while the company is consistently growing revenues and profits from its niche properties. I’m still expecting a good year for ARE and a solid income.” Let’s hang in there given that potential upside, but let’s also keep it at Hold until it can show some momentum for the first time in two months. Today’s (April 22) earnings results – due out after the closing bell – could help revive shares if they beat estimates. HOLD

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, is having a rough April, giving back all its March gains, falling from 26 to 22. The stock is still trading well above its 200-day moving average, however, and there’s been no news that would qualify as a red flag. In fact, the last news American Eagle got was positive: JPMorgan upgraded shares from “Neutral” to “Overweight” on April 9. I still like the upside here, as the clothing retailer expects earnings and revenue growth both this year and next. Meanwhile, it trades at a mere 12x forward earnings and less than 1x sales. BUY

Aviva plc (AVVIY), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in Cabot Value Investor, held firm after a precipitous drop the week prior. There was no news that prompted the shares to slump and fall 7%, giving back all their March gains. More likely, investors are coming for stocks with “meat on the bone” in the midst of this April sell-off.

So, if you missed the boat prior to the March run, turns out you get a second chance at buying shares of this U.K.-based life insurance and investment management firm. The 7.3% dividend yield can hold us over until the next rally. BUY

Blackstone Inc. (BX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, was down only marginally this past week despite the down market, with an assist from earnings last Thursday. While EPS results were modest – 98 cents a share, in line with estimates and up 1% year over year, revenues improved 3% over the first quarter last year and total assets under management (AUM) improved 7%, topping a trillion dollars. The investment firm’s infrastructure portfolio was up 4.8% thanks in large part to Blackstone’s big investment in data centers. And the company’s private wealth business posted its highest quarterly inflows since 2022, bringing in more than $8 billion.

After an initial pop, BX shares sagged to end the week, reflecting its “Bull Market Stock” status. In bull markets, BX tends to vastly outperform – hence the huge investment inflows in the last quarter. But with the market down sharply to start the second quarter, so is the stock. Since I strongly believe the bull market is far from over – and is simply in the midst of a normal albeit painful pullback – I believe BX will bounce back. If you haven’t yet bought, this looks like a good entry point. BUY

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in Cabot Dividend Investor, had had a brutal couple weeks, losing more than 150 points to dip to two-month lows. The AI beneficiary’s recent earnings failed to blow people away, but really, AVGO may be getting dragged down by the slump in semiconductors as a whole. While the earnings didn’t wow, they’re still impressive: AI revenue quadrupled (!), and a new, large customer for its AI chips is rumored to be either Amazon or Apple. So, there’s still plenty to like here. But any further dip below two-month support may compel us to downgrade AVGO to Hold. BUY

Cava Group (CAVA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, had a rough debut week, falling more than 4%, with most of the losses coming Friday on no news. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “CAVA has certainly taken its lumps, but so far we’re seeing some encouraging signs: After its initial dip, the stock recouped half of the decline in just a few days (a sign buyers were lurking), and this second leg of weakness has found support so far at the 50-day line. We’ll see how it goes, of course—if CAVA really caves in we’ll cut our loss—but we never averaged up here so still have a small-ish stake, and there’s little doubt the growth story will play out as the store base grows 15%-ish annually and same-store sales likely perk up. We’re OK with a small buy here if you don’t own any, though be aware that a drop into the mid- to upper 50s could have us pulling the plug.” Mike bought earlier than us, so we’re certainly not thinking of cutting bait after a 4% decline. Let’s see if it bounces back again after a down week. BUY

CrowdStrike (CRWD), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has really imploded in the last month after rising to new all-time highs in mid-February and mostly holding its gains since. It’s a microcosm of the market as a whole over the last six months. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “CRWD is one of the names we took partial profits in and are trying to give our remaining stake room to breathe given the pristine short- and long-term story (including a very bullish free cash flow outlook for the next few years), though admittedly, it’s losing altitude along with most growth names, sitting about 14% below its highs (not including the brief post-earnings spike in early March). Fundamentally, there haven’t been a ton of new, concrete items from the firm, though it did add a few modules for use within the Google Cloud Marketplace, and we find it interesting that it formally released a product to help CEOs and big businesses with SEC disclosure rules surrounding breaches (something we wrote about near the start of the year). Our patience isn’t limitless, but big picture, CRWD’s action doesn’t look abnormal, so we’ll hold onto our remaining shares.” Let’s downgrade to Hold as well until the stock finds a bottom. MOVE FROM BUY TO HOLD

DraftKings (DKNG), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has fallen below its 44-to-47 range, dipping to two-month lows around 40-41. Here’s what Mike had to say about it last Thursday: “DKNG remains a tricky trader, deflating below its 50-day line as the market has been weak and some lingering worries remain out there in terms of regulations and the like (NCAA looking to ban some prop bets, etc.); it doesn’t help that its main peer (Flutter Entertainment, the parent of FanDuel, symbol FLUT) looks terrible, too. Because of the action, we’re moving to Hold, but with a solid profit still on the books and the firm’s super-bullish multi-year outlook released late last year, we’re OK giving the stock a bit more rope—though the 40 level looks key should the sellers should stay at it.” We’ll keep on Buy as long as the stock stays above 40. A dip below could prompt us to join Mike and bump DKNG down to Hold. BUY

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was down another 3% this week despite its new drug candidate, tirzepatide, proving effective in reducing sleep apnea in its latest round of clinical trials. Patients who took tirzepatide for a year had up to 63% fewer sleep apnea events. With 50 million people in the U.S. suffering from sleep apnea, eventual approval of the drug could help Lilly tap into yet another huge market. If approved, the company aims to have the drug available for sleep apnea treatment by the middle of this year.

Combine that with Lilly’s success in the booming weight-loss and diabetes treatment drugs (Mounjaro and Zepbound), and there’s no reason to think the stock won’t bounce back. Even after a rough few weeks, it’s a Buy. BUY

Green Thumb Industries Inc. (GTBIF), originally recommended by Michael Brush in Cabot Cannabis Investor, is actually up slightly since we last wrote – perhaps a sign that a) the recent selling in cannabis names was overdone, and b) Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) approval of the long-anticipated, FDA-recommended rescheduling cannabis from a Class I to a Class III drug is imminent. In talking to industry experts, Michael has said rescheduling could come as early as the end of this month. If and when it happens, it would be a game changer for the cannabis sector, taking them off the list of “most harmful” drugs (coupled with the likes of cocaine, heroin and acid) and thus paving the way for further legalization and de-stigmatization. Cannabis stocks could be on the brink of a big pop. Buy now before rescheduling happens. BUY

Honda Motor Co. (HMC), originally recommended by yours truly in the Growth & Income Portfolio of Cabot Value Investor, was down from 36 to 34 this week. Here’s what I wrote about in my latest Value Investor update: “Honda announced plans to launch six next-generation electric vehicles in China by 2027 under its new brand, Ye. It’s part of the company’s goal to derive 100% of its Chinese revenues from electric vehicles by 2035.

“Aside from that, there were no major developments for Honda this week. HMC shares were down more than 4%, most likely in sympathy with the market, and are down 7.5% since touching new 52-week highs above 37 at the end of March. Normal consolidation. Honda shares remain dirt-cheap at 7x earnings and with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.45. The EV/EBITDA is a microscopic 0.04.

“The stock has 30% upside to our 45 price target.” BUY

International Business Machines (IBM), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in Cabot Explorer, was flat ahead of earnings this Wednesday, April 24. The stock’s resilience in a crummy April has been impressive, as Carl wrote in his latest update: “International Business Machines (IBM) shares demonstrated their strength over the last several weeks as the stock held its value, trading at just 18 times forward earnings with a 3.6% dividend. Earnings are expected next week for this conservative play on cyber consulting and AI.” BUY

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, was down about 1% after reporting earnings last Thursday. The company comfortably beat top- and bottom-line estimates, with EPS up 22% year over year on an 11.5% revenue improvement. That good news comes on the heels of a March 14 FDA approval of its new robotics system, the da Vinci 5; but what has held investors back from snatching up ISRG shares in droves, aside from the down market, is that the company warned its da Vinci 5 rollout will be slow. Mizuho Securities analyst Anthony Petrone speculated that full-scale launch won’t come until next year due to supply constraints. So, investors are waiting. But they won’t wait forever, as the new surgical platform could be a game changer for Intuitive, prompting healthcare providers to replace their old da Vincis. Patience will likely be rewarded here. BUY

Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the High Yield Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, just keeps hanging tough at 47 – impressive given what’s been happening with the rest of the market. Earnings are due out May 2, which is the next date to keep an eye on. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “This BDC has shown good resilience over the past tumultuous week. With the portfolio of small businesses, it is helped as much by the strong economy as it is hurt by rising rates. MAIN is still reasonably priced at less than 1.6 times book value and with most other valuation measures below the five-year average. It also pays that safe and high dividend every single month with a strong possibility of supplemental dividends over the course of the year as well. MAIN should also provide strong total returns over time generated by its largely successful small business portfolio.” BUY

Microsoft (MSFT), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, had a rough week, falling more than 6%. Perhaps this Thursday’s (April 24) earnings report can turn the tide. In addition, Tyler noted, “The news from this week is that the company has invested $1.5 billion in AI firm G42, which is based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Part of the interest in this deal is that it implies the UAE is backing away from working with China on AI and, instead, is strengthening ties with the U.S.” BUY

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, imploded after earnings on Thursday. Here’s why, according to Tyler: “Shares of Netflix (NFLX) are trading down … after the company beat Q1 expectations. Revenue grew 15.2% to $9.4 billion (beating by 1.3%, or $125.2 million) while EPS grew 83.3% to $5.28 (beating by 16.7%, or $0.76). Net streaming additions was 9.3 million, way ahead of expectations.

“So what gives? Forward guidance wasn’t amazing. While management said Q2 earnings should be above expectations, full-year revenue guidance is a little short and paid net additions in Q2 is expected to be lower than in Q1. Also, in a surprise move, management said they’ll no longer share subscriber numbers, stoking further concern about an impending slowdown.

“Analysts had mostly positive views on the quarter, though some differences of opinion on the end of subscriber number sharing. Some pointed out that Apple pulled a similar move when the company stopped reporting iPhone unit sales. Also, there’s been discussion about how Netflix cares more about revenue, engagement, cash flow and margins than subscriber numbers. The advertising tier still isn’t expected to be a major contributor this year, but is expected to become more meaningful in 2025.

“…Nothing here changes the big-picture story as Netflix is still the dominator in streaming, so we may easily see buyers stepping in on this weakness.” If that happens, you should be prepared to buy shares too, if you haven’t already done so. BUY

Novo Nordisk (NVO), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in Cabot Explorer, stayed close to its normal 124-to-127 range. In his latest update, Carl noted, “Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares were unchanged this week and have been trading sidewise for several weeks after a strong start to the year. The market for anti-obesity drugs is about $6 billion and Goldman Sachs estimates it could grow to $100 billion by 2030. There are an estimated 800 million people with obesity worldwide and only 2% of these patients are being treated. This Danish drugmaker’s market value is now larger than Denmark’s GDP.” BUY

Nutanix (NTNX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, was down from 61 to 59, which isn’t far below where it started April, which is a positive compared to other growth stocks. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “NTNX had an amazing run during the past few months, registering just one down week from the market low in October to the stock’s top in early March. Following that, some giveback was going to happen, which is what we’re seeing—though, so far, the damage has been tamer than many leaders, with the stock actually testing new high ground last week before retreating. Obviously, anything is possible, but we remain optimistic that the firm’s tech platform—which can operate at any scale in any type of cloud with any apps, including those for AI—will continue to produce rapid and reliable growth for a long time to come. And thanks to the subscription model that’s in place, that will keep free cash flow (which more than doubled in the January quarter) kiting higher. Much more weakness could have us moving to Hold, but right here, we’ll stay on Buy, thinking those that aren’t yet in could grab a few shares on this dip.” BUY

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, has broken below support in the mid-22s, and it’s time to say goodbye. While we like the company’s potential as a late-stage AI story, the stock simply hasn’t performed in its two months in the portfolio – timing is everything, right? – and so it’s time to sell. Perhaps we’ll add this one back when the market for growth stocks, and AI, perks up again. But after marching downward for six straight weeks, it’s time to cut bait. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL

PayPal (PYPL), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, fell again, from 65 to 62, on no news. Earnings are due out in a week, on April 30. The stock is still up year to date, more than 11% in the last six months, and trades more than 80% below its 2021 peak. Carl calls it a “great value opportunity. PayPal benefits from the tailwind of electronic payments and the upward trajectory of online shopping. According to Boston Consulting Group, the worldwide fintech sector is expected to be worth $1.5 trillion by 2030, and PayPal is in the pole position with 426 million users.” Keeping at Buy. BUY

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, is down about 12% in April after closing March at new all-time highs. The reason is obvious: the Fed. The pullback prompted us to downgrade to Hold last week. Here’s what Mike had to say about PHM in his latest update: “There’s no question the backup in interest rates since February has dented PHM and other homebuilders, and that caused us to sell a portion (one-third) of our position earlier this week. Some good news arrived today, though—D.R. Horton, the largest builder in the country, reported a solid March quarter that included a 17% hike in new orders (in dollar terms) and, despite acknowledging higher mortgage rates, the firm upped its guidance for the next six months as well, bringing in some buyers to the group. Ideally, that helps investor perception, but Pulte’s own report (April 23, this Tuesday) will be key. Having already sold some, we’ll use a mental stop around the stock’s February lows (near 100, give or take a point or two) for the rest of our stake.” Let’s keep PHM at Hold and see how it responds to tomorrow’s earnings report. HOLD

Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, had a rough week, falling to its lowest point since February. Tom hasn’t lost confidence in it though: “Qualcomm is secretly one of the best semiconductor and AI stocks to own. It had been held back by cyclicality, both in semiconductors and smartphones. But the negative cycle is ending, and AI is coming to mobile devices. QCOM cooled off after a huge rally. A breather (is) probably a healthy thing for the stock. But the rest of the year looks strong as Qualcomm is also introducing new AI chips for PCs and smartphones and is well positioned for the next phase of the AI craze.” Keeping at Buy for now, but another week like this one could necessitate a downgrade. BUY

Sea Limited (SE), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, is actually up since our last issue, from 52 to 55, and is the rare stock that’s having a decent April. As Carl notes, SE is “trading way below its highs. Sea stock trades at just two times sales and has the potential to grow in the most dynamic markets in the world. Sea generated a record-high $13 billion in total revenue during 2023, led by its e-commerce segment. As its digital gaming and entertainment segment regroups, its fintech payments segment delivers steady growth.” BUY

ServiceNow (NOW), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, has broken below the 740 support it had valiantly clung to since mid-January, and now it’s in free fall. Time to sell before this large-cap software stock turns into a loser. NOW has been a solid addition to the portfolio since we added it last June, but now its momentum has clearly evaporated, and it’s falling too fast to rationalize keeping around any longer. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL

Tesla (TSLA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, has turned into a falling knife, down another 8% this past week after breaching 170 support. If ever a company could use an earnings beat, this is it. Fortunately, we won’t have to wait long: first-quarter results are due out tomorrow, April 23. No one’s expecting much after deliveries declined for the first time in four years. Hopefully all the bad news is already priced in, and any glimmer of hope for this rapidly declining company will attract some buyers. But this will remain a Hold until those buyers – lots of them – show up. HOLD

Tripadvisor (TRIP), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, has lost exactly one point in each of the last three weeks, falling from 28 to 25. There’s been no news, so the decline is likely market-driven. It’s still up 16% year to date. This one’s worth a nibble on the current dip ahead of what’s likely to be another busy summer travel season. BUY

Uber (UBER), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has fallen sharply since hitting new all-time highs above 81 in mid-February. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “Uber (UBER) is like a lot of leaders—shares are down 13% from their highs, which isn’t pleasant, but the downturn has come on light trade and, of course, occurs following a huge move (the stock basically doubled from its late October low to its March peak). Short term, the odds favor some more downside probing or consolidating, possibly allowing longer-term moving averages to catch up a bit, but the major trend is positive for the stock and for business, with the exploding free cash flow outlook released earlier this year likely to keep big investors interested. Earnings, of course, will be key (due May 8), but have taken a few chips off the table recently, we’ll simply sit tight.” With the stock now trading below its 50-day line, let’s downgrade to Hold as well. MOVE FROM BUY TO HOLD

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me at chris@cabotwealth.com.

Here, too, is the latest episode of Cabot Street Check, the weekly podcast I host with my colleague Brad Simmerman.

The next Cabot Stock of the Week issue will be published on April 29, 2024.

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